Gulf Distubance 91L More Organized, Headed Towards Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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Tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico has gotten more organized over the past day, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission of 2013 this afternoon to see if the storm is becoming a tropical depression. Buoy 42003 near the heaviest thunderstorms of 91L measured sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops show a lopsided storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of a center of circulation that is trying to develop at the edge of a region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is due to a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, by Thursday, and 91L is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. NHC is giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. I put these odds higher, at 60%. If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. A swath from Florida to New England can expect 2 - 4" of rain. A few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is predicted for Cedar Key, Florida, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens.

The storm is getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it quickly to the north-northeast beginning on Thursday, with the center expected to move over coastal North Carolina on Friday afternoon, and over Massachusetts on Friday night. If 91L does manage to become a tropical storm before making landfall on Thursday, it will quickly degenerate into a regular extratropical low pressure system before moving up the East Coast.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending June 12, 2013 from the NWS/NCEP. A swath of 2 - 4" of rain is expected from Florida to New England from 91L.

Jeff Masters

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HH just south of where Hurricane Issac came ashore in LA
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RECON DATA



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Nice satellite presentation at the very least.

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Now I'm really out until midnight. Maybe one or two posts before bed when I get home from work.
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While the disturbance in the GoM gets most of the attention, I'm closely watching the wave along 40W. There is strong vorticity/ cyclonic turning associated with that feature, although the deepest convection is minimal at the moment. It may be a player later on down the road, if shear decreases some.

Link
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Quoting longislander102:
Thank you for the update Dr. Masters!


Well hello there, longislander :) It's hard to believe it's hurricane season already, especially seeing how much still needs rebuilding from Sandy! Have you been any of the beaches yet? There's a ton of nails and planks and stuff buried all over the place! I know a bunch of people who have stepped on nails hidden in the sand in the last week! Not to mention, Bay Park still smells horrible from what happened to the sewage plant from Sandy too.

I can't help but wonder if we get another system up here this summer to make it three in a row!
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Quoting sar2401:

And the difference between an invest, a TD, and a TS is 6 knots of wind and some kind of closed circulation. Does it really matter that much?
For the record it does matter,... one down for hurricane season 2013...
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1007
I would miss the first Hurricane Hunter mission of 2013 because I'm about to leave for stupid work... at least I'm making about thousand a month until college starts in August.
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Nothing yet still in the outskirts.

HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
17:46:00Z 29.650N 89.383W 497.4 mb
(~ 14.69 inHg) 5,896 meters
(~ 19,344 feet) - 284 meters
(~ 932 feet) From 302° at 11 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 12.6 mph) -7.0°C
(~ 19.4°F) -34.5°C
(~ -30.1°F) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph) - - - -
17:46:30Z 29.600N 89.383W 497.4 mb
(~ 14.69 inHg) 5,896 meters
(~ 19,344 feet) - 285 meters
(~ 935 feet) From 301° at 11 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 12.6 mph) -7.1°C
(~ 19.2°F) -34.2°C
(~ -29.6°F) 12 knots
(~ 13.8 mph) - - - -
17:47:00Z 29.550N 89.400W 497.8 mb
(~ 14.70 inHg) 5,893 meters
(~ 19,334 feet) - 286 meters
(~ 938 feet) From 303° at 11 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 12.6 mph) -7.0°C
(~ 19.4°F) -33.5°C
(~ -28.3°F) 12 knots
(~ 13.8 mph) - - - -
17:47:30Z 29.517N 89.400W 497.6 mb
(~ 14.69 inHg) 5,894 meters
(~ 19,337 feet) - 287 meters
(~ 942 feet) From 300° at 13 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 14.9 mph) -7.0°C
(~ 19.4°F) -34.5°C
(~ -30.1°F) 13 knots
(~ 14.9 mph) - - - -
17:48:00Z 29.467N 89.417W 497.7 mb
(~ 14.70 inHg) 5,896 meters
(~ 19,344 feet) - 288 meters
(~ 945 feet) From 296° at 13 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 14.9 mph) -7.0°C
(~ 19.4°F) -35.4°C
(~ -31.7°F) 14 knots
(~ 16.1 mph) - - - -
17:48:30Z 29.417N 89.417W 497.6 mb
(~ 14.69 inHg) 5,894 meters
(~ 19,337 feet) - 287 meters
(~ 942 feet) From 296° at 14 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 16.1 mph) -7.0°C
(~ 19.4°F) -35.8°C
(~ -32.4°F) 14 knots
(~ 16.1 mph) - - - -
17:49:00Z 29.383N 89.433W 497.6 mb
(~ 14.69 inHg) 5,895 meters
(~ 19,341 feet) - 287 meters
(~ 942 feet) From 297° at 14 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 16.1 mph) -7.0°C
(~ 19.4°F) -36.1°C
(~ -33.0°F) 14 knots
(~ 16.1 mph) - - - -
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting WxGeekVA:




If the low re-located closer to the convection like I'm beginning to suspect that it did, then we may see something more interesting from the HH recon than what many people think.


It's almost as if it is underneath the convection. Look at the inflow.

Starting to wind up.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting Astrometeor:
That precip map shows 3 inches of rain for my area in TN, we could use that, a bit dry and cracked ground at the moment. Thanks Dr. Masters for the update and fuel to the fire.

I think it could happen up there if 91L goes ashore from the Big Bend area south. You'll get some wrap around moisture from whatever it finally becomes plus there's a decent looking trough headed your way for the weekend. My house in SE Alabama is right under the whopping .75" area because we'll be cut off from the Gulf flow, and that trough will never penetrate far enough south to give us hardly anything.
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I wonder if the storm is starting to make its turn to the north and east?
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE
AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY
DEFINED...HOWEVER AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING
OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EFFECTS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND IN
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
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Global satellite radar showing the invest nicely:

Link

Its a little delayed at the moment, but it should be fixed soon.

EDIT: it appears to be fixed now, must have been a 1 time thing.
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Quoting Torito:


I know, did you even read the comment other than the link? xD


The way you worded your sentence made it seem like you freaked out by blue's sarcastic media post. Then you said you found another thing of the internet which you posted the link to. That's where my confusion came from. My line of thoughts went linearly from post to post and sentence to sentence. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10445
It is getting better organized. I expect a 50-60 mph TS out of this system prior to landfall along the big bend
to Cedar Key, Florida. Tropical Storm force winds are likely tomorrow across much of the west coast of Florida.
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Reconnaissance data from the planes so far.

Link

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Moderator kudos. Excellent work. Thanks. Have a good afternoon weathergeeks! :) I'm out until later this evening! Maybe we'll have a named stormed by then, but while it has improved, sure still looks puny.
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Quoting SLU:
91L getting its act together. We should have our first TC later today.




This is so exciting,
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Alright going to go freshen up and comeback for Andrea.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting washingtonian115:
I just want something with a name to track..91L needs it's own identity except for being remembered as "that storm"


"That storm" is a pretty lame title, but some storms don't make to TS status.
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Quoting Torito:


I know, did you even read the comment other than the link? xD
Please don't post the link to past storms with similar name. It'll confuse people on here, even though you're trying to be funny.
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The last 4 frames of all the GIFs posted on here look really good, they really show how much this thing has strengthened in the past few hours.
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I just want something with a name to track..91L needs it's own identity except for being remembered as "that storm"
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17614
Its always a race to see who can post the updates the fastest here. Hah.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Here it comes Joe.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting MississippiWx:
I think it's becoming a more real possibility that a true center could form under the convection (the spin that we see on visible). Need a few more frames to confirm, but zooming in on that area shows at least another low level vort underneath it, if not more. We'll see...still has to fight other circulations nearby.


I can't wait to see what the RECON finds on this!!!
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
104. SLU
91L getting its act together. We should have our first TC later today.


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I think we actually have the center relocating closer to the convection. As you can see the main center that was once there has been almost sucked into the convection.

I think if it can hold out some of the dry air it will strengthen to a weak Ts before getting closer to Florida.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


It's a test.


Thought so, as it said 70, which is usually reserved for testing in naming storms, but i was just making sure...
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Quoting sar2401:

Surely. It's Hurricane City. Second best hurricane site on the web. Tell Jim I said hello if you stop in.
Thanks! Oh yeah I totally forgot about that website, used to use it all the time to see how often Tampa Bay gets hit by storms.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Torito:


I clearly wrote "until i saw the date"....


Yeah, but I am a little more gullible than most people. Should've seen me in middle school, I would believe the stupidest of things. A little better now, but not much.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10445
Thank you for the update Dr. Masters!
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


It's a test.
Ready for a tropical air mass and rains Geek?.It should be feeling like Florida around here soon by Thursday.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17614




If the low re-located closer to the convection like I'm beginning to suspect that it did, then we may see something more interesting from the HH recon than what many people think.
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So happy I just caught that segment with Dr. Masters on TWC!! cool!!!
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Quoting MississippiWx:
I think it's becoming a more real possibility that a true center could form under the convection (the spin that we see on visible). Need a few more frames to confirm, but zooming in on that area shows at least another low level vort underneath it, if not more. We'll see...still has to fight other circulations nearby.

Definitely agree. Can apparantly see it.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1386
Quoting sar2401:

And the difference between an invest, a TD, and a TS is 6 knots of wind and some kind of closed circulation. Does it really matter that much?


40-60...60 mph could be too high.

Ok back to work, see y'all
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Quoting Waltanater:
So, does anyone know when the new computer models will come out? Who is responsible for posting this on this web site? It still has the 8am info. We want updates!


I just wait, when the models begin running, they will be posted, don't worry. Sometimes by multiple people at the same time.

In fact, I was impressed that there weren't the usual 5 postings at once of the new forecast from the NHC.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10445
Quoting Torito:
By the way, anyone know what this is? just throwing it out here..

Link


It's a test.
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Looks like the rain is edging slowly further east?
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Quoting Autistic2:
Do we have a closed COC? If not what lat and long are we using to track it?

Pretty much a wash out for my fishing trip Thursday either way.

Got a HARD downpour here in St Aug then nothing but dark clouds.


The answer to that is: Nobody really knows for sure, no one wants to agree on that this time.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
OMG the SAL is so dense, the sky almost looks white (and there are NO cirrus clouds). Would love to get more fun like in FL, it's very quite here... WAY TOO QUITE lol.


SAL:

Source (I'm glad the University of Athens is still providing this metereological site covering Europe too, despite the economical issues of the country).
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 62 Comments: 6491
Do we have a closed COC? If not what lat and long are we using to track it?

Pretty much a wash out for my fishing trip Thursday either way.

Got a HARD downpour here in St Aug then nothing but dark clouds.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 480
Quoting Astrometeor:


Well then, somebody forgot to drink their morning coffee.

Edit: 2007.

Edit2: Can you guys please stop posting misleading info unless sarcasm is clearly marked on the post? Sarcasm is very different to tell by on the interwebs.


I clearly wrote "until i saw the date"....
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Can I get a link to your findings if you don't mind sar?

Surely. It's Hurricane City. Second best hurricane site on the web. Tell Jim I said hello if you stop in.
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I think it's becoming a more real possibility that a true center could form under the convection (the spin that we see on visible). Need a few more frames to confirm, but zooming in on that area shows at least another low level vort underneath it, if not more. We'll see...still has to fight other circulations nearby.
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Quoting sar2401:

And the difference between an invest, a TD, and a TS is 6 knots of wind and some kind of closed circulation. Does it really matter that much?

To some people it matters. Sure.
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So, does anyone know when the new computer models will come out? Who is responsible for posting this on this web site? It still has the 8am info. We want updates!
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Quoting Astrometeor:


Well then, somebody forgot to drink their morning coffee.



Yea, and I got no sleep last night, so that is a factor in this.... xD
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Quoting allancalderini:
A weak ts is a ts nontheless we might get td 1 or ts Andrea in the next couple of hours will be interesting to watch.Let see who gets the crow the ones who are saying it will develop or the ones who say it will not. next couple of hours will be crucial.

And the difference between an invest, a TD, and a TS is 6 knots of wind and some kind of closed circulation. Does it really matter that much?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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