Gulf Distubance 91L More Organized, Headed Towards Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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Tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico has gotten more organized over the past day, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission of 2013 this afternoon to see if the storm is becoming a tropical depression. Buoy 42003 near the heaviest thunderstorms of 91L measured sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops show a lopsided storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of a center of circulation that is trying to develop at the edge of a region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is due to a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, by Thursday, and 91L is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. NHC is giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. I put these odds higher, at 60%. If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. A swath from Florida to New England can expect 2 - 4" of rain. A few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is predicted for Cedar Key, Florida, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens.

The storm is getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it quickly to the north-northeast beginning on Thursday, with the center expected to move over coastal North Carolina on Friday afternoon, and over Massachusetts on Friday night. If 91L does manage to become a tropical storm before making landfall on Thursday, it will quickly degenerate into a regular extratropical low pressure system before moving up the East Coast.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending June 12, 2013 from the NWS/NCEP. A swath of 2 - 4" of rain is expected from Florida to New England from 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting bryanfromkyleTX:


Sorry, but Directv Ch 362 is The Weather Channel and it has been on there all day...


"until the thunderstorms move west and over the low-pressure, I do not see any appreciable development or naming in this storm"-Michael Lowry, Hurricane Specialist for The Weather Channel. Nothing about it getting named.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10481
recon decending
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Current Wave heights showing 12 foot seas.

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Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:


Yup, getting very close! I live in St. Pete close to the water as well. Should be very interesting for sure, especially with an already high tide!


Looks like it may be another Debbie, I was out of town in Rhode Island when that came through. We got water over the seawall.
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Quoting hydrus:


That wave continues to impress me. A sign of a CV season that may be robust.
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Quoting bryanfromkyleTX:
Cantore said it is "A STORM" now, but NHC just wants to be as sure as possible.



Talk about utterly jumping the gun. These people need to calm their shorts and use science instead of inflammatory exclamations. Losing respect for cantore each day that goes buy due to the sensationalism.
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Quoting FSUstormnut:
can someone please put the navy website up? thank you.

Boy, this blog moves way too fast sometimes. If you use the way back machine, you'll find the link I posted on #38.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17358
Quoting FSUstormnut:
can someone please put the navy website up? thank you.


Link
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Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:


Yup, getting very close! I live in St. Pete close to the water as well. Should be very interesting for sure, especially with an already high tide!
We are under a coastal flood watch here along the West Coast of FL. tides are expected to run 1-3 feet above normal.
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Quoting bryanfromkyleTX:
Cantore said it is "A STORM" now, but NHC just wants to be as sure as possible.
Since when is a normal everyday meteorologist more reliable than a federal agency? Stumper.
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170. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Watch for west winds on the south quad, that's how we'll know if we have a tropical depression or storm.


Yep. In addition to a well defined center.
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Quoting bucyouup68:
No Rain here in St Petersburg as of yet, but see it is getting close. I am right on the water, this could get interesting.


Yup, getting very close! I live in St. Pete close to the water as well. Should be very interesting for sure, especially with an already high tide!
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I feel this might try to get going as it makes landfall probably as a 50mph if it develops. I better start getting used to Recon flights, going to be a lot of them this long season.
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 407
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nice satellite presentation at the very least.


Well, yeah, if like a big, disorganized mass of clouds. :-) It really does appear to me that the actual LLC, assuming one exists, is still displaced well to the west from the blob. It's hard to see how we'll get a TS from this.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17358
Quoting SLU:
91L getting its act together. We should have our first TC later today.




Recon out now I think we might see a TS by 5pm. Anyways If the COC is under that convection It may come in towards Florida further south around Tampa as it has nudge slightly to the NNE/NE
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 407
Appropriate for first RECON of the season:


NHC's Use of Aircraft Data
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Quoting sar2401:

The only model on that page is the UK Met from six hours ago. Am I missing something?



you looking at wrong storm pick 91
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Well Looks to be our 1st Storm of the 2013 season.

WOW that did not take long at all....


Taco :o)
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No Rain here in St Petersburg as of yet, but see it is getting close. I am right on the water, this could get interesting.
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Quoting bryanfromkyleTX:


Sorry, but Directv Ch 362 is The Weather Channel and it has been on there all day...

I'm aware of what channel it is, as my television stays there all day every day.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
To follow the Hurricane Hunters (for all who have lost their links as I did :)

Address for the overlayer in Google Earth
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ge/Atlantic .kmz

Levi's page
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not sure where you're getting this information. Carl Parker from this morning said there was potential for it to develop into a tropical depression or storm prior to it moving inland tomorrow. Cantore isn't at work nor has he posted on Twitter or Facebook. That's twice you've posted something someone didn't actually say.


Sorry, but Directv Ch 362 is The Weather Channel and it has been on there all day...
Member Since: April 15, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 109
can someone please put the navy website up? thank you.
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Starting to see some rain moving onto Longboat Key. Winds have picked up slightly as well.
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At my age, I might give my left xxx to ride on a HH mission into a Cat5!
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Quoting SyriboTigereyes:


Well hello there, longislander :) It's hard to believe it's hurricane season already, especially seeing how much still needs rebuilding from Sandy! Have you been any of the beaches yet? There's a ton of nails and planks and stuff buried all over the place! I know a bunch of people who have stepped on nails hidden in the sand in the last week! Not to mention, Bay Park still smells horrible from what happened to the sewage plant from Sandy too.

I can't help but wonder if we get another system up here this summer to make it three in a row!


Haven't been to the beach yet. My kids went to Jones Beach on Friday though. They didn't mention anything about nails. Bay Park still smells? That is so sad!
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Quoting DataNerd:
New model runs have picked the system back up.

Link

The only model on that page is the UK Met from six hours ago. Am I missing something?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17358
Quoting bryanfromkyleTX:
Cantore said it is "A STORM" now, but NHC just wants to be as sure as possible.

Not sure where you're getting this information. Carl Parker from this morning said there was potential for it to develop into a tropical depression or storm prior to it moving inland tomorrow. Cantore isn't at work nor has he posted on Twitter or Facebook. That's twice you've posted something someone didn't actually say.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Quoting seminolesfan:


Wrong flight, buddy.


Nice catch, ill fix that. they shouldnt put different dates next to each other. -.-
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Cantore said it is "A STORM" now, but NHC just wants to be as sure as possible.
Member Since: April 15, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 109
This is where i get alot of my GIFS if anyone is interested in data that i dont post..

Link
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Watch for west winds on the south quad, that's how we'll know if we have a tropical depression or storm.
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Quoting Torito:


Wrong flight, buddy.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


MH09! Glad to see you for another season.
Cybr! Good to see you...just checking in real quick.

If 91L can get its circulation together it could very well become Andrea before it moves onshore.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thanks! Oh yeah I totally forgot about that website, used to use it all the time to see how often Tampa Bay gets hit by storms.

Indeed. Jim Williams does an excellent job for running a one man show. I always send him $25 a year to help him pay for the site and the feeds. There are also a lot of facts in his database, which is very useful when other "facts" are proposed as being facts. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17358
Outflow is increasing Link
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Several models now say that the max intensity will be 40-45MPH, which is a weak TS.

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Still a good ways N and W of the AOI.
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New model runs have picked the system back up.

Link
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Agreed but I think more like 45mph


couldn't you just look t it at work



he works at Walmart if I am not mistaken. Don't know how he would look at it while working...
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10481
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Please don't post the link to past storms with similar name. It'll confuse people on here, even though you're trying to be funny.


72. Bluestorm5 1:48 PM EDT on June 05, 2013 +0
I'm out until tomorrow. Work until midnight.

Please don't post anything after you say you are leaving...it will also confuse people. =)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nice satellite presentation at the very least.



MH09! Glad to see you for another season.
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Coming into the northern quadrant now:

18:02:30Z 28.200N 89.650W 497.7 mb
(~ 14.70 inHg) 5,892 meters
(~ 19,331 feet) - 286 meters
(~ 938 feet) From 325° at 10 knots
(From the NW at ~ 11.5 mph) -7.0°C
(~ 19.4°F) -34.0°C
(~ -29.2°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) - - - -
18:03:00Z 28.150N 89.667W 497.6 mb
(~ 14.69 inHg) 5,895 meters
(~ 19,341 feet) - 286 meters
(~ 938 feet) From 321° at 10 knots
(From the NW at ~ 11.5 mph) -7.0°C
(~ 19.4°F) -35.5°C
(~ -31.9°F) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph) - - - -
18:03:30Z 28.100N 89.667W 497.8 mb
(~ 14.70 inHg) 5,892 meters
(~ 19,331 feet) - 286 meters
(~ 938 feet) From 323° at 11 knots
(From the NW at ~ 12.6 mph) -7.0°C
(~ 19.4°F) -34.1°C
(~ -29.4°F) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph) 21 knots*
(~ 24.1 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 21.0 knots* (~ 24.1 mph*)
190.9%*
18:04:00Z 28.067N 89.667W 497.6 mb
(~ 14.69 inHg) 5,894 meters
(~ 19,337 feet) - 286 meters
(~ 938 feet) From 323° at 11 knots
(From the NW at ~ 12.6 mph) -7.0°C
(~ 19.4°F) -32.7°C
(~ -26.9°F) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 24.0 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
218.2%
18:04:30Z 28.017N 89.683W 497.6 mb
(~ 14.69 inHg) 5,895 meters
(~ 19,341 feet) - 286 meters
(~ 938 feet) From 326° at 10 knots
(From between the NW and NNW at ~ 11.5 mph) -7.0°C
(~ 19.4°F) -32.5°C
(~ -26.5°F) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph) 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 23.6 knots (~ 27.2 mph)
236.4%
18:05:00Z 27.967N 89.683W 497.6 mb
(~ 14.69 inHg) 5,894 meters
(~ 19,337 feet) - 286 meters
(~ 938 feet) From 326° at 10 knots
(From between the NW and NNW at ~ 11.5 mph) -7.0°C
(~ 19.4°F) -33.3°C
(~ -27.9°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 25.0 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
250.0%
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Quoting GrandCaymanMed:
It is getting better organized. I expect a 50-60 mph TS out of this system prior to landfall along the big bend
to Cedar Key, Florida. Tropical Storm force winds are likely tomorrow across much of the west coast of Florida.

Agreed but I think more like 45mph

Quoting Bluestorm5:
I would miss the first Hurricane Hunter mission of 2013 because I'm about to leave for stupid work... at least I'm making about thousand a month until college starts in August.

couldn't you just look t it at work

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.
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Quoting HuracanKY:
While the disturbance in the GoM gets most of the attention, I'm closely watching the wave along 40W. There is strong vorticity/ cyclonic turning associated with that feature, although the deepest convection is minimal at the moment. It may be a player later on down the road, if shear decreases some.

Link



I am also watching this wave. Worth noting again that models hint at development within 96 hours for this wave, and at 144 hrs put a very vigorous cape verde wave out into the atlantic.
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HH just south of where Hurricane Issac came ashore in LA
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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