Gulf Distubance 91L More Organized, Headed Towards Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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Tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico has gotten more organized over the past day, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission of 2013 this afternoon to see if the storm is becoming a tropical depression. Buoy 42003 near the heaviest thunderstorms of 91L measured sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops show a lopsided storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of a center of circulation that is trying to develop at the edge of a region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is due to a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, by Thursday, and 91L is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. NHC is giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. I put these odds higher, at 60%. If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. A swath from Florida to New England can expect 2 - 4" of rain. A few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is predicted for Cedar Key, Florida, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens.

The storm is getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it quickly to the north-northeast beginning on Thursday, with the center expected to move over coastal North Carolina on Friday afternoon, and over Massachusetts on Friday night. If 91L does manage to become a tropical storm before making landfall on Thursday, it will quickly degenerate into a regular extratropical low pressure system before moving up the East Coast.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending June 12, 2013 from the NWS/NCEP. A swath of 2 - 4" of rain is expected from Florida to New England from 91L.

Jeff Masters

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You can really see the various levels of circulation now and how the entire system is leaning East.

Link
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Quoting DataNerd:
Link


New loop continues to show a dominating COC growing in the NE quadrant under the convection.

Will be interesting when Recon flys that area.

Is that what you see?

I see dry air beating it to pieces and a large outflow boundary/gust front barreling away from the convection heading E to the FL coastline.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says the pressure has risen one millibar...

AL, 91, 2013060506, , BEST, 0, 243N, 888W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 210, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 91, 2013060512, , BEST, 0, 247N, 887W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 250, 200, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 91, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 251N, 883W, 30, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

recon much better
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Quoting Ricki13th:


Nothing beats Recon. It already showing pressures around 1006mb.

Or 1007 or 1008. The pressure at my house 1010 millibars and nothing is happening...but at least it's only 89 instead of 99 like yesterday.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16023
Quoting pcola57:
I need help finding a app for android on NHC ect..
Throwing myself to the mercy of the blog..
Can anyone help me with that??


Try here

NHC apps
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Quoting DataNerd:
Link


New loop continues to show a dominating COC growing in the NE quadrant under the convection.

Will be interesting when Recon flys that area.

It almost looks like the new low's completely disrupted the original Monsoon gyre that the HH are currently investigating... The elongated circulation looks completely disrupted and less noticeable in the last few frames.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1346
People grow and change. Some even change their minds and attitudes.

I just emptied my ignore list.

Everyone gets a Fresh start for 2013.
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Quoting DataNerd:
Link


New loop continues to show a dominating COC growing in the NE quadrant under the convection.

Will be interesting when Recon flys that area.


Thats exactly what Im seeing it looks pretty defined moving to the NE.
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 405
223. JRRP
Link
the best wave that i´ve seen in June
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Link


New loop continues to show a dominating COC growing in the NE quadrant under the convection.

Will be interesting when Recon flys that area.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
I need help finding a app for android on NHC ect..
Throwing myself to the mercy of the blog..
Can anyone help me with that??
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Even though 91L is hundreds of miles away, it is quite windy here with strong gusts right along 7 mile beach in Grand Cayman...had sand blowing in my face...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not rain "wrapped" but rain contaminated.

Good afternoon Mr. Ted. :)
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1346
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says the pressure has risen one millibar...

AL, 91, 2013060506, , BEST, 0, 243N, 888W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 210, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 91, 2013060512, , BEST, 0, 247N, 887W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 250, 200, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 91, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 251N, 883W, 30, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


Not at all surprising, cloud tops have been warming all morning into the afternoon. Tonight could get interesting though. Impressive system considering the harsh conditions surrounding it. I do hope that is not a precursor of to what this season may hold...
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
So I forgot, when the data is contaminated it usually means it is rain wrapped right?


Not rain "wrapped" but rain contaminated.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Now at cruising altitude.


183530 2549N 08936W 9418 00596 0082 +215 +201 073017 018 020 000 03

Welcome back MiamiHurricanes!
-HurricaneDean07
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1346
Quoting GTcooliebai:
So I forgot, when the data is contaminated it usually means it is rain wrapped right?

It means the rainfall is intense enough that the opacity is interfering with getting reliable readings.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16023
Quoting longislander102:


Haven't been to the beach yet. My kids went to Jones Beach on Friday though. They didn't mention anything about nails. Bay Park still smells? That is so sad!

The beaches my family and friends went to were in the inlets and bays, so I bet it's better at Jones and Long Beach! And yeah, Bay Park is AWFUL! The only saving grace is if the wind is blowing towards the ocean, then it's not so bad. But it can't be safe for those living in East Rockaway to be inhaling those fumes, yuck!
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Now turning SSE
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Very Impressive data from Recon. However, Its still looking for the main COC.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Does anyone think this is happening


All I know for sure is that it's not headed for the Caymans and I'm getting hammered in the stock market right now. It's also not raining at my house and the lawn has already sucked up all the water from last night's storms.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16023
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Note for newcomers -- when they have a "*" next to the data, it's contaminated.
So I forgot, when the data is contaminated it usually means it is rain wrapped right?
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Rain intensity picking up here in for Fort Myers
for the first time today should be interesting to see if we have a TD OR TS my thinking is it will by pass TD status and go to a named storm.
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Possible center fix

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 18:27Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 03

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 18Z on the 5th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 500mb
Coordinates: 27.2N 89.8W
Location: 192 miles (310 km) to the S (175°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1008mb (29.77 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 90° (from the E) 18 knots (21 mph)
1000mb 75m (246 ft) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 24.2°C (75.6°F) 90° (from the E) 19 knots (22 mph)
925mb 760m (2,493 ft) 20.8°C (69.4°F) 20.8°C (69.4°F) 90° (from the E) 24 knots (28 mph)
850mb 1,491m (4,892 ft) 18.0°C (64.4°F) 18.0°C (64.4°F) 85° (from the E) 18 knots (21 mph)
700mb 3,138m (10,295 ft) 10.8°C (51.4°F) 6.4°C (43.5°F) 50° (from the NE) 15 knots (17 mph)
500mb 5,860m (19,226 ft) -5.5°C (22.1°F) Approximately -28°C (-18°F) 355° (from the N) 13 knots (15 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 18:13Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Location of Highest Altitude where wind was reported: 27.18N 89.83W
Time of Highest Altitude where wind was reported: 18:13:44Z

Location of Lowest Altitude where wind was reported: 27.18N 89.87W
Time of Lowest Altitude where wind was reported: 18:22:23Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 90° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 22 knots (25 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 80° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 15 knots (17 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 498mb to 1008mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 90° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 19 knots (22 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 07520

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1008mb (Surface) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 24.8°C (76.6°F)
921mb 20.4°C (68.7°F) 20.4°C (68.7°F)
850mb 18.0°C (64.4°F) 18.0°C (64.4°F)
710mb 11.4°C (52.5°F) Approximately 6°C (43°F)
597mb 1.8°C (35.2°F) -0.5°C (31.1°F)
587mb 1.4°C (34.5°F) Approximately -7°C (19°F)
558mb -0.3°C (31.5°F) Approximately -9°C (16°F)
544mb -0.7°C (30.7°F) Approximately -28°C (-18°F)
513mb -2.5°C (27.5°F) Approximately -26°C (-15°F)
498mb -6.1°C (21.0°F) Approximately -29°C (-20°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1008mb (Surface) 90° (from the E) 18 knots (21 mph)
974mb 90° (from the E) 24 knots (28 mph)
920mb 90° (from the E) 25 knots (29 mph)
850mb 85° (from the E) 18 knots (21 mph)
727mb 80° (from the E) 12 knots (14 mph)
685mb 50° (from the NE) 15 knots (17 mph)
619mb 80° (from the E) 12 knots (14 mph)
540mb 80° (from the E) 10 knots (12 mph)
529mb 45° (from the NE) 10 knots (12 mph)
498mb 350° (from the N) 14 knots (16 mph)
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting Klolly23:


Hello flbeachgirl. I'm also from Sarasota. Looks like some good rains are going to be moving in soon. I look for winds to pick as well with that heavier batch just to our south.


*waves at Klolly23* Yep, just saw that on the radar. This will be my first hurricane season on LBK and I sorta feel like a sitting duck out here. Lol But it's gorgeous, so I'll deal with the down-sides.
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Time: 18:25:30Z
Coordinates: 26.25N 90.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 670.1 mb (~ 19.79 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,497 meters (~ 11,473 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.6 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 25° at 19 knots (From the NNE at ~ 21.8 mph)
Air Temp: 8.5°C (~ 47.3°F)
Dew Pt: 1.8°C (~ 35.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 19 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 25 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
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Now at cruising altitude.


183530 2549N 08936W 9418 00596 0082 +215 +201 073017 018 020 000 03
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Quoting bucyouup68:


Looks like it may be another Debbie, I was out of town in Rhode Island when that came through. We got water over the seawall.


Thats what I am thinking too...very much like TS Debby. I came back from Orlando to my neighborhood flooded. Had to walk about a mile through above knee high water to get home since my car couldn't make it through the intruding saltwater from the storm surge (okay, exciting to say the least, haha).
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Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says the pressure has risen one millibar...

AL, 91, 2013060506, , BEST, 0, 243N, 888W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 210, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 91, 2013060512, , BEST, 0, 247N, 887W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 250, 200, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 91, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 251N, 883W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Nothing beats Recon. It already showing pressures around 1006mb.
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 405
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I look at that and see 3-4 things spinning near supposed center.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I look at that and see 3-4 things spinning near supposed center.


The entire system is embedded in an open low with multiple "centers" not at all uncommon for developing tropical cyclones.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That wave continues to impress me. A sign of a CV season that may be robust.
It does looks impressive, for so early in June. How is wind shear forecast ahead of the wave?
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Note for newcomers -- when they have a "*" next to the data, it's contaminated.
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Since everyone is busy talking about the disturbance, they are forgetting a severe watch that is in effect.

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Time: 18:25:30Z
Coordinates: 26.25N 90.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 670.1 mb (~ 19.79 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,497 meters (~ 11,473 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.6 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 25° at 19 knots (From the NNE at ~ 21.8 mph)
Air Temp: 8.5°C (~ 47.3°F)
Dew Pt: 1.8°C (~ 35.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 19 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 25 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting DataNerd:
Link

New COC has formed under the convection. Pretty rapid looking circulation. Also has a mid level vortex for the first time. Easily visible on the above loop. However the whole system is still embedded within an open low pressure area so it will be hard to say if the new center is closed or not.
I look at that and see 3-4 things spinning near supposed center.
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Quoting flbeachgirl:
Starting to see some rain moving onto Longboat Key. Winds have picked up slightly as well.

Quoting flbeachgirl:
Starting to see some rain moving onto Longboat Key. Winds have picked up slightly as well.

Hello flbeachgirl. I'm also from Sarasota. Looks like some good rains are going to be moving in soon. I look for winds to pick as well with that heavier batch just to our south.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:


Yup, getting very close! I live in St. Pete close to the water as well. Should be very interesting for sure, especially with an already high tide!


I'm just north of you in Madeira Beach behind the Church by the Sea. No rain yet but getting close.
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Regarless, Of development it looks like it is coming towards Tampa starting to make a more NE turn.
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 405
One of the multiple Low level centers has been fixed:

Time: 18:17:00Z
Coordinates: 26.9N 89.8833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 569.6 mb (~ 16.82 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 4,838 meters (~ 15,873 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.6 mb (~ 29.81 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 28° at 4 knots (From the NNE at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: -0.3°C (~ 31.5°F)
Dew Pt: -9.6°C (~ 14.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -


Subsequent observation shows the windshift:

Time: 18:21:30Z
Coordinates: 26.5333N 89.95W
Acft. Static Air Press: 670.0 mb (~ 19.79 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,500 meters (~ 11,483 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.6 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 19° at 14 knots (From the NNE at ~ 16.1 mph)
Air Temp: 8.5°C (~ 47.3°F)
Dew Pt: 1.1°C (~ 34.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 25 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)


Recon continuing south to look for the main center.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Time: 18:15:00Z
Coordinates: 27.0667N 89.85W
Acft. Static Air Press: 497.6 mb (~ 14.69 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 5,893 meters (~ 19,334 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 288 meters (~ 945 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 349° at 16 knots (From the NNW/N at ~ 18.4 mph)
Air Temp: -6.0°C (~ 21.2°F)
Dew Pt: -28.6°C (~ -19.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 27 knots (~ 31.0 mph)

Wowsers! Those winds are really howling so far. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16023
Quoting GTcooliebai:
We are under a coastal flood watch here along the West Coast of FL. tides are expected to run 1-3 feet above normal.


Yup should give us a run for our money, but maybe not quite as much as TS Debby, which called for 2-4ft above normal. Tomorrow around 1pm is the highest high tide (~2.43 ft). Combined with the 1-3 ft above normal (which might rise if it strengthens enough) and I will probably have flooding in my neighborhood again.
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ATCF says the pressure has risen one millibar...

AL, 91, 2013060506, , BEST, 0, 243N, 888W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 210, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 91, 2013060512, , BEST, 0, 247N, 887W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 250, 200, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 91, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 251N, 883W, 30, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Pressure of 1006MB
8:24:00Z 26.350N 89.983W 670.2 mb
(~ 19.79 inHg) 3,497 meters
(~ 11,473 feet) 1006.8 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg) - From 23° at 18 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 20.7 mph) 8.5°C
(~ 47.3°F) 1.6°C
(~ 34.9°F) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 25.0 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
138.9%
18:24:30Z 26.317N 89.983W 670.1 mb
(~ 19.79 inHg) 3,498 meters
(~ 11,476 feet) 1006.8 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg) - From 23° at 19 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 21.8 mph) 8.5°C
(~ 47.3°F) 1.3°C
(~ 34.3°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 25.0 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
131.6%
18:25:00Z 26.283N 89.983W 670.0 mb
(~ 19.79 inHg) 3,498 meters
(~ 11,476 feet) 1006.7 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg) - From 24° at 19 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 21.8 mph) 8.5°C
(~ 47.3°F) 1.4°C
(~ 34.5°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 24.0 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
126.3%
18:25:30Z 26.250N 90.000W 670.1 mb
(~ 19.79 inHg) 3,497 meters
(~ 11,473 feet) 1006.6 mb
(~ 29.72 inHg) - From 25° at 19 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 21.8 mph) 8.5°C
(~ 47.3°F) 1.8°C
(~ 35.2°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 25.0 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
131.6%
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Does anyone think this is happening

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Time: 18:15:30Z
Coordinates: 27.0167N 89.8667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 511.7 mb (~ 15.11 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 5,691 meters (~ 18,671 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 290 meters (~ 951 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 358° at 14 knots (From the N at ~ 16.1 mph)
Air Temp: -4.1°C (~ 24.6°F)
Dew Pt: -28.5°C (~ -19.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 16 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 27 knots* (~ 31.0 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting cyclonekid:
Since when does a normal everyday meteorologist more reliable than a federal agency? Stumper.

Yeah, but look at the muscles on Cantore. If his brain ia also that muscular, he's obviously the go-to guy for hurricane information....well, except for those problems caused by all that 'roid use. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16023
Looks like Joe Bastardi nailed another forecast, and by nailing I mean completely missing. As usual. Not going just North of Tampa..which would have been the most hyporific landfall, as usual.
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Link

New COC has formed under the convection. Pretty rapid looking circulation. Also has a mid level vortex for the first time. Easily visible on the above loop. However the whole system is still embedded within an open low pressure area so it will be hard to say if the new center is closed or not.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Time: 18:15:00Z
Coordinates: 27.0667N 89.85W
Acft. Static Air Press: 497.6 mb (~ 14.69 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 5,893 meters (~ 19,334 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 288 meters (~ 945 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 349° at 16 knots (From the NNW/N at ~ 18.4 mph)
Air Temp: -6.0°C (~ 21.2°F)
Dew Pt: -28.6°C (~ -19.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 27 knots (~ 31.0 mph)
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Quoting bryanfromkyleTX:


Sorry, but Directv Ch 362 is The Weather Channel and it has been on there all day...


"until the thunderstorms move west and over the low-pressure, I do not see any appreciable development or naming in this storm"-Michael Lowry, Hurricane Specialist for The Weather Channel. Nothing about it getting named.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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