Gulf Distubance 91L More Organized, Headed Towards Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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Tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico has gotten more organized over the past day, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission of 2013 this afternoon to see if the storm is becoming a tropical depression. Buoy 42003 near the heaviest thunderstorms of 91L measured sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops show a lopsided storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of a center of circulation that is trying to develop at the edge of a region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is due to a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, by Thursday, and 91L is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. NHC is giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. I put these odds higher, at 60%. If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. A swath from Florida to New England can expect 2 - 4" of rain. A few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is predicted for Cedar Key, Florida, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens.

The storm is getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it quickly to the north-northeast beginning on Thursday, with the center expected to move over coastal North Carolina on Friday afternoon, and over Massachusetts on Friday night. If 91L does manage to become a tropical storm before making landfall on Thursday, it will quickly degenerate into a regular extratropical low pressure system before moving up the East Coast.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending June 12, 2013 from the NWS/NCEP. A swath of 2 - 4" of rain is expected from Florida to New England from 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting robintampabay:
Looks like Andrea will venture my way here in Henando County,FL. Flying out of Tampa on Friday around noon.Hopefully no issues with getting out.


You must be near me in Spring Hill, Rob. Have you been getting a lot of rain?
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Quoting Tazmanian:




i got my on life other to be on here on the blog all day
Oh ok no harm no foul I just was wondering because you are usually on here when we have tropical activity, as soon as I made that post you came on, lol.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1129. flcanes
Quoting centex:
Best radar loop?

dont know
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1128. flcanes
Welp. I come back from dinner and we have Andrea folks.
Have at the intensity/track
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1126. centex
Best radar loop?
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1125. xcool
sandy overhyped imo
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Looks like Andrea will venture my way here in Henando County,FL. Flying out of Tampa on Friday around noon.Hopefully no issues with getting out.
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 151
Actually, we got lucky (Northen Gulf Coast) that the coc did not form further to the West; nice big warm pool/eddy in the Northen Gulf right now due South of LA/AL/Florida Panhandle that could have provided a nice burst of energy as it crossed assuming that sheer would have also cooperated.

As it stands, sheer and dry air entrainment will keep her in check and a 50-60 mph TS at landfall is a good bet.
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1122. wpb
cmc nailed it 5 days ago.
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Have a great evening everyone. I had a lot of fun tracking Andrea. Thanks to all who post the Recon data. Hope to track more in the future. See yall later.
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The Hurricane
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Quoting wxchaser97:
I go away for a much needed nap for two hours or so and come back to find hundreds of new comments. I figured we had Andrea before I even checked NHC.

:)
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1145
Quoting Tazmanian:




i got my on life other to be on here on the blog all day


Dude, you're a rock star...
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I go away for a much needed nap for two hours or so and come back to find hundreds of new comments. I figured we had Andrea before I even checked NHC.
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Glad I did not take any bets, some other people ought to be eating crow right now.
Andrea looks like she is going to ride the coastline which means most of us near the East Coast will probably get the dry side.
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Next mission...11:45 PM EDT tonight...

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 07/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0401A CYCLONE
C. 07/0345Z
D. 29.3N 83.7W
E. 07/0530 TO 07/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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He has ANOTHER handle.Not to worry


Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16437
1112. K8eCane
Well, I wasnt expecting to see the projected path right over my head. I been thru FAR worse storms than this one will be
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Quoting cyclonekid:


I use PowerPoint. It takes a lot of time to do graphics like this. ESPECIALLY with all the watches and warnings.

BS. No way! That's amazing! That's awesome...

You have some skills with powerpoint my friend.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1145
oh no ANDREA going up the E coast here comes sandy part 2
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Sure you'll be lucky if there is a wing left and where is Taz and Grothar?


I've seen Taz around, but Gro is MIA. Probably right about 25.3°N 86.5°W, mixin' it up...
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Sure you'll be lucky if there is a wing left and where is Taz and Grothar?




i got my on life other to be on here on the blog all day
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Do ya'll think we will have invest 92L tonight.
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

What kind of Software/program do you use for your graphics?
Been asking around the blog trying access if and what I want to get as a graphics program.


I use PowerPoint. It takes a lot of time to do graphics like this. ESPECIALLY with all the watches and warnings.
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05/2045 UTC 25.3N 86.9W T1.0/1.0 ANDREA -- Atlantic
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Quoting tropicfreak:
So I come back from swim practice and we have Andrea. Any naysayers want to pass the crow? ;)
Sure you'll be lucky if there is a wing left and where is Taz and Grothar?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
I think invest 92 will get numbered today or tomorrow.
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So I come back from swim practice and we have Andrea. Any naysayers want to pass the crow? ;)
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Quoting wxgeek723:
Sandrea?
Don't do this to us :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16437
Quoting stormchaser19:


Yes,models are strengthening the storm a little more I think 50 mph to 60 mph is not rule out!


StormTrackerScott will be pleased his prediction panned out, especially if it gets to 60 mph...
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Quoting Civicane49:


Interesting to see the TVCN a right outlier. That is typically one of the NHC's crutches.
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Quoting barbamz:


The wave:
The wave is developing against all odds, deserves at least a 10% Invest, at this hour. Maybe for the short term...
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Quoting Ameister12:
So far there is good agreement in the blog that Andrea will peak at 50-60mph.


Yes,models are strengthening the storm a little more I think 50 mph to 60 mph is not rule out!
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Quoting GTcooliebai:


:D Crow will be served to all if this becomes a hurricane.




WOW! In my Jasoniscoolman voice.


And the new model runs have shifted southeast some :)
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Quoting mikatnight:


Who does the season summary maps?

A multitude of different users. I would if I took the time to install it.
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Sandrea?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Andrea..becoming a hurricane...



:D Crow will be served to all if this becomes a hurricane.


Quoting ncstorm:
updated WPC precip map..sure do miss Allan's page for those extra maps..I might go ahead and pay for the subscription..



WOW! In my Jasoniscoolman voice.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Recon Heading Home.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1145
Quoting mikatnight:


Dorian's the one I'm worried about. My wife's son. A real mixer.
Andrea Doria(n) was a bad bad mix years ago.
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1088. barbamz
Quoting Ricki13th:
If the NHC feels festive about the official start of cane season maybe they will give the blog a gift and bring out the yellow crayon for the Central Atlantic Wave.


The wave:
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 52 Comments: 5690
Quoting Ricki13th:
If the NHC feels festive about the official start of cane season maybe they will give the blog a gift and bring out the yellow crayon for the Central Atlantic Wave.


If only! been eyeing that one since it left Africa... would like to see it surrounded by yellow at least for a day :) Very strong shear ahead of it though
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1085. trey33
Hi everyone..... starting early this year!
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If the NHC feels festive about the official start of cane season maybe they will give the blog a gift and bring out the yellow crayon for the Central Atlantic Wave.
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From a guy called Futuremet

Diurnal maximum and minimum. During the day it is diurnal minimum over water because, the surrounding air has less specific heat capacity than the sea,and thus warms faster, but cools down faster during the night. During the night time, the water is typically warmer than the surrounding air. Now the air near the surface which is in contact with the water warms by conduction, and then begin to rise. The during the day, the warming of the air which is above the water creates a quasi-capping inversion, inhibiting convection. Keep in mind that air rises from the surface to the higher levels, so when the air warmer than the sea during the day, it acts as a lid.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 455
Andrea..becoming a hurricane...

Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16437
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh man I forgot just how fast the blog moves when a storm is active. Was updating Wikipedia and the blog count skyrocketed over 100 posts.


Who does the season summary maps?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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