Gulf Distubance 91L More Organized, Headed Towards Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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Tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico has gotten more organized over the past day, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission of 2013 this afternoon to see if the storm is becoming a tropical depression. Buoy 42003 near the heaviest thunderstorms of 91L measured sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops show a lopsided storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of a center of circulation that is trying to develop at the edge of a region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is due to a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, by Thursday, and 91L is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. NHC is giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. I put these odds higher, at 60%. If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. A swath from Florida to New England can expect 2 - 4" of rain. A few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is predicted for Cedar Key, Florida, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens.

The storm is getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it quickly to the north-northeast beginning on Thursday, with the center expected to move over coastal North Carolina on Friday afternoon, and over Massachusetts on Friday night. If 91L does manage to become a tropical storm before making landfall on Thursday, it will quickly degenerate into a regular extratropical low pressure system before moving up the East Coast.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending June 12, 2013 from the NWS/NCEP. A swath of 2 - 4" of rain is expected from Florida to New England from 91L.

Jeff Masters

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so one 1006mb low,, yet to find out what the other llc is...already see 1007
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NHC went code red at most recent TWO..
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pcola57: This is a great app and the pay one is even better.
Link
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hmm Grand Cayman airport has 1011mb and falling
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Link

Dvorak number is up also. Outlfow improving.


Looks like a possible TS after all. Waiting for recon to fix that new center so we can see whats in it.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hmm duh I have no idea why you would bring it up



yep

What? Do you mean the stock market? LOL.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13275
New LLC is visible under convection. Western quadrant of thunderstorms: Link
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
Quoting CybrTeddy:


And right over what appears to be a new LLC trying to take shape, I want to see recon investigate that area.

I KNOW!! Recent recon pass shows the old circulation is no longer spinning, and has dissipated... Meaning the new low might is now completely dominant.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1134
NHC is ready if a cyclone is designated, they did a preliminary track:

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=623)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0)


From latest SHIPS
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18:36:00Z 25.800N 89.583W 942.0 mb
(~ 27.82 inHg) 595 meters
(~ 1,952 feet) 1008.2 mb
(~ 29.77 inHg) - From 74° at 17 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 19.5 mph) 21.5°C
(~ 70.7°F) 20.1°C
(~ 68.2°F) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 18 knots*
(~ 20.7 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 18.0 knots* (~ 20.7 mph*)
105.9%*
18:36:30Z 25.783N 89.567W 941.8 mb
(~ 27.81 inHg) 596 meters
(~ 1,955 feet) 1008.1 mb
(~ 29.77 inHg) - From 72° at 18 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 20.7 mph) 21.8°C
(~ 71.2°F) 19.9°C
(~ 67.8°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 18 knots*
(~ 20.7 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 17.1 knots* (~ 19.6 mph*)
94.7%*
18:37:00Z 25.767N 89.550W 942.0 mb
(~ 27.82 inHg) 594 meters
(~ 1,949 feet) 1008.1 mb
(~ 29.77 inHg) - From 74° at 19 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 21.8 mph) 21.6°C
(~ 70.9°F) 19.9°C
(~ 67.8°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 18 knots*
(~ 20.7 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 18.0 knots* (~ 20.7 mph*)
94.7%*
18:37:30Z 25.750N 89.517W 941.8 mb
(~ 27.81 inHg) 595 meters
(~ 1,952 feet) 1008.2 mb
(~ 29.77 inHg) - From 74° at 18 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 20.7 mph) 21.8°C
(~ 71.2°F) 19.8°C
(~ 67.6°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 15 knots*
(~ 17.2 mph*) 1 mm/hr*
(~ 0.04 in/hr*) 14.2 knots* (~ 16.3 mph*)
78.9%*
18:38:00Z 25.733N 89.500W 939.1 mb
(~ 27.73 inHg) 611 meters
(~ 2,005 feet) 1007.1 mb
(~ 29.74 inHg) - From 73° at 19 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 21.8 mph) 21.6°C
(~ 70.9°F) 19.5°C
(~ 67.1°F) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 18 knots*
(~ 20.7 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 17.1 knots* (~ 19.7 mph*)
90.0%*
18:38:30Z 25.717N 89.483W 901.6 mb
(~ 26.62 inHg) 956 meters
(~ 3,136 feet) 1006.2 mb
(~ 29.71 inHg) - From 70° at 19 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 21.8 mph) 19.7°C
(~ 67.5°F) 18.1°C
(~ 64.6°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) - - - -
18:39:00Z 25.700N 89.467W 876.7 mb
(~ 25.89 inHg) 1,215 meters
(~ 3,986 feet) 1007.7 mb
(~ 29.76 inHg) - From 61° at 16 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 18.4 mph) 18.2°C
(~ 64.8°F) 17.3°C
(~ 63.1°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 13 knots
(~ 14.9 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 10.9 knots (~ 12.6 mph)
68.4%
18:39:30Z 25.667N 89.450W 874.8 mb
(~ 25.83 inHg) 1,240 meters
(~ 4,068 feet) 1008.6 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg) - From 57° at 14 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 16.1 mph) 18.4°C
(~ 65.1°F) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 15 knots
(~ 17.2 mph) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 15.9 knots (~ 18.2 mph)
113.3%
18:40:00Z 25.650N 89.417W 875.0 mb
(~ 25.84 inHg) 1,236 meters
(~ 4,055 feet) 1008.5 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg) - From 56° at 14 knots
(From between the NE and ENE at ~ 16.1 mph) 18.2°C
(~ 64.8°F) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 15 knots
(~ 17.2 mph) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 15.9 knots (~ 18.2 mph)
113.3%
18:40:30Z 25.633N 89.400W 874.9 mb
(~ 25.84 inHg) 1,239 meters
(~ 4,065 feet) 1008.5 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg) - From 56° at 14 knots
(From between the NE and ENE at ~ 16.1 mph) 18.5°C
(~ 65.3°F) 16.6°C
(~ 61.9°F) 15 knots
(~ 17.2 mph) 17 knots*
(~ 19.5 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 15.9 knots* (~ 18.2 mph*)
113.3%*
18:41:00Z 25.617N 89.383W 885.3 mb
(~ 26.14 inHg) 1,157 meters
(~ 3,796 feet) 1010.4 mb
(~ 29.84 inHg) - From 53° at 15 knots
(From the NE at ~ 17.2 mph) 18.8°C
(~ 65.8°F) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 15 knots
(~ 17.2 mph) 15 knots*
(~ 17.2 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 15.0 knots* (~ 17.2 mph*)
100.0%*
18:41:30Z 25.600N 89.350W 915.4 mb
(~ 27.03 inHg) 866 meters
(~ 2,841 feet) 1010.7 mb
(~ 29.85 inHg) - From 64° at 16 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 18.4 mph) 20.5°C
(~ 68.9°F) 18.2°C
(~ 64.8°F) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 19.0 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
118.8%



Getting closer.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
Quoting Luisport:
By the way what is an anti-cyclone?
I hope I am right but it is a circulation that spins opposite of the developing cyclone that helps ventilate it which in turn will aid in reducing the effects of wind shear on the system.
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Dry air, people. Its there. Its having an impact.

Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
Pressure in the 1007mb range...no west winds.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
268. JLPR2
Quoting allancalderini:
The best wave I have seen was one in 2010 the previous before Alex or I don`t remember if it became Alex later on.


I agree. Impressive 92L from 2010.
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Quoting Luisport:
By the way what is an anti-cyclone?


A high pressure system.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Anti-Cyclone looks like it is trying to develop right over 91L.



And right over what appears to be a new LLC trying to take shape, I want to see recon investigate that area.
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we really need more gulf bouys......
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Quoting Luisport:
By the way what is an anti-cyclone?

High pressure system.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13275
bouy last reporting 1009.2
MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA


Hurrican Hunters reported 1008.5 and 1008.4 as they passed overhead
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Quoting allancalderini:
Yes it matters for me,and I believe for many others too.

For the purposes of records and who guessed right and who gets to eat crow, it matters. For real life people affected by the storm, not so much. When we have a 64 knot TS compared to what we have now, then it would matter a lot more.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13275
Interested to see what recon finds with the possible new low.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1134
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Anti-Cyclone looks like it is trying to develop right over 91L.

By the way what is an anti-cyclone?
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259. JRRP
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


Got a tight little circulation about 11N 42W may be a mid level swirl but sure does look good!

yeah i saw it
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Quoting sar2401:

All I know for sure is that it's not headed for the Caymans and I'm getting hammered in the stock market right now. It's also not raining at my house and the lawn has already sucked up all the water from last night's storms.

hmm duh I have no idea why you would bring it up


Quoting GrandCaymanMed:
Even though 91L is hundreds of miles away, it is quite windy here with strong gusts right along 7 mile beach in Grand Cayman...had sand blowing in my face...

yep
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Quoting JRRP:
Link
the best wave that i´ve seen in June
The best wave I have seen was one in 2010 the previous before Alex or I don`t remember if it became Alex later on.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4049
Quoting sar2401:

Just out of curiousity, what is your pressure differential compared to the ~1007 pressure apparently being found in 91L?
Our current pressure is 1012 mb and falling. Seems about normal for this time of afternoon.
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Quoting hydrus:
nice.....looking impressive on the satellite anyway
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5135
254. JRRP
Quoting Torito:


Now THAT might turn into something interesting. :P

yeah
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Anti-Cyclone looks like it is trying to develop right over 91L.



Recon just flew through the Suspected "Old" Circulation and Got pure Easterly Winds, not wind shift whatsoever... meaning that the dominant low has killed off the old circulation, and the new one can now stop competing.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1134
Quoting JRRP:
Link
the best wave that i´ve seen in June


Got a tight little circulation about 11N 42W may be a mid level swirl but sure does look good!
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make that 1007
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5135
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Very windy in East End too and a good chop on the sea.

Just out of curiousity, what is your pressure differential compared to the ~1007 pressure apparently being found in 91L?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13275
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Quoting TylerStanfield:


Is that what you see?
I say its about time to take a break :)


I see what I see. You see what you see. :)

Check it out.
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
Anti-Cyclone looks like it is trying to develop right over 91L.

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.
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see the pressures dropping from 1011 to 1008 on what i have on the google recon
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5135
Good afternoon. Does anyone else love seeing recon flying again?!

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7629
Quoting sar2401:

And the difference between an invest, a TD, and a TS is 6 knots of wind and some kind of closed circulation. Does it really matter that much?
Yes it matters for me,and I believe for many others too.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4049
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is the new LLC.


Agreed
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1134
Palm Harbor here, by the water, we can see Three Rooker from the dock. Breezy, and no rain yet.
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The Blob approaches!

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Even if this storm does not develop, it will still be a force that should not be taken lightly, flooding WILL happen WHEN it hits land...
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Quoting DataNerd:
Link


New loop continues to show a dominating COC growing in the NE quadrant under the convection.

Will be interesting when Recon flys that area.

I still see what appears to be the only low as a naked swirl about 100 miles west of the blob. I'm not good at seeing through clouds and not smart enough to know if there's a COC hiding under them.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13275
This is the new LLC.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14050
Quoting seminolesfan:

Is that what you see?

I see dry air beating it to pieces and a large outflow boundary/gust front barreling away from the convection heading E to the FL coastline.



Is that what you see?
I see its about time to take a break :)
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1134
Quoting flbeachgirl:


*waves at Klolly23* Yep, just saw that on the radar. This will be my first hurricane season on LBK and I sorta feel like a sitting duck out here. Lol But it's gorgeous, so I'll deal with the down-sides.

Yeah this area is so beautiful. Hopefully we'll have another uneventful hurricane season, and not pay a big price for living in paradise.
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Quoting JRRP:
Link
the best wave that i´ve seen in June


Now THAT might turn into something interesting. :P
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If this keeps up looks like you all won't see T.D 1 today.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16432
Quoting GrandCaymanMed:
Even though 91L is hundreds of miles away, it is quite windy here with strong gusts right along 7 mile beach in Grand Cayman...had sand blowing in my face...
Very windy in East End too and a good chop on the sea.
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You can really see the various levels of circulation now and how the entire system is leaning East.

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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