Gulf Distubance 91L More Organized, Headed Towards Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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Tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico has gotten more organized over the past day, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission of 2013 this afternoon to see if the storm is becoming a tropical depression. Buoy 42003 near the heaviest thunderstorms of 91L measured sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops show a lopsided storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of a center of circulation that is trying to develop at the edge of a region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is due to a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, by Thursday, and 91L is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. NHC is giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. I put these odds higher, at 60%. If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. A swath from Florida to New England can expect 2 - 4" of rain. A few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is predicted for Cedar Key, Florida, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens.

The storm is getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it quickly to the north-northeast beginning on Thursday, with the center expected to move over coastal North Carolina on Friday afternoon, and over Massachusetts on Friday night. If 91L does manage to become a tropical storm before making landfall on Thursday, it will quickly degenerate into a regular extratropical low pressure system before moving up the East Coast.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending June 12, 2013 from the NWS/NCEP. A swath of 2 - 4" of rain is expected from Florida to New England from 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting scottsvb:


Those only work during hurricanes, not weaker Tropical Storms or troughs.... lol


It's not over yet.................... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8846
Link

New convection starting to fire.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks to me like we're on the brink of having a tropical cyclone.


190430 2440N 08820W 9772 00266 0073 +240 +226 257002 002 017 000 03
190500 2439N 08819W 9771 00267 0073 +240 +225 294002 003 014 000 00
190530 2437N 08817W 9770 00269 0073 +238 +225 305002 003 011 001 03

That's for the old circulation... *Facepalm* They found the old dying circulation....
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1146
Quoting JLPR2:


I agree. Impressive 92L from 2010.


man you made me freak for a second I thought that was now well now I see this is back in 10
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pressure in the 1007mb range...no west winds.


Exactly, and welcome back!
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Wind dropping off on recon. Seems the fix was of the dissipating center but the pressure may still be the lowest there.

Time: 18:55:30Z
Coordinates: 25.05N 88.75W
Acft. Static Air Press: 977.2 mb (~ 28.86 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 266 meters (~ 873 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.2 mb (~ 29.74 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 102° at 8 knots (From the ESE at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: 23.6°C (~ 74.5°F)
Dew Pt: 22.1°C (~ 71.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 12 knots (~ 13.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The recent satellite trends are interesting, to say the least.

:) Yep. Very Interesting.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1146
324. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting scottsvb:
Lost my link...can someone post up the recon page to follow flight. thank you

Link
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Quoting Torito:
Even if this storm does not develop, it will still be a force that should not be taken lightly, flooding WILL happen WHEN it hits land...


Still cleaning up sfter Debby put the river in my house last year... heavy sigh...
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Looks to me like we're on the brink of having a tropical cyclone.


190430 2440N 08820W 9772 00266 0073 +240 +226 257002 002 017 000 03
190500 2439N 08819W 9771 00267 0073 +240 +225 294002 003 014 000 00
190530 2437N 08817W 9770 00269 0073 +238 +225 305002 003 011 001 03
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sorry about that :).

The GFS (again this is suppose to be taken with caution) shows another storm developing in the caribbean/gulf 12 days from now.


Its cool wash :) definitely stands out. At any rate I am in E.CENT FL and we have been overcast all day but winds are starting to pick up a little. Waiting for the bulk of 91L to start moving in then it will get interesting!
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Quoting scottsvb:


but we know what he implies without saying it


i know nothing of the sort
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Quoting barbamz:


Address for the overlayer in Google Earth
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ge/Atlantic .kmz

Levi's page
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/


ty
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318. 7544
and it keeps nudging more east than north today
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
~ 3,136 feet) 1006.2 mb
how does the altitude effect that reading......that reading is between 925mb and 850mb?

The higher in the atmosphere the lower the reading of pressure will be, which means they will adjust it to the surface estimated pressure.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1146
hey by thhe way
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Sorry about that :).

The GFS (again this is suppose to be taken with caution) shows another storm developing in the caribbean/gulf 12 days from now.


12 days? Mind posting the frame?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
This is one of the reasons why so many people have left WU. He said nothing about it coming to Cayman. He simply said the pressure at the airport is 1011 mb and falling.


but we know what he implies without saying it
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Really starting to wind up on visible.



Looks like Tampa is gonna take a beating

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Quoting scottsvb:
Lost my link...can someone post up the recon page to follow flight. thank you


Address for the overlayer in Google Earth
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ge/Atlantic .kmz

Levi's page
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
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311. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT couldn't have missed anymore with the afternoon pass of 91L had it tried.
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~ 3,136 feet) 1006.2 mb
how does the altitude effect that reading......that reading is between 925mb and 850mb?
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The recent satellite trends are interesting, to say the least.
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i think we have Andrea.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Really starting to wind up on visible.


Definitely...
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1146
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Tampa-Tampa Bay area needs to check to make sure their sheilds are working............


Those only work during hurricanes, not weaker Tropical Storms or troughs.... lol
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The storm comes from that impressive wave in the Atlantic.So we may not be done with it yet.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16439
Quoting sar2401:

Maybe the storm will begin to retrograde your way.


wow, you guys attack him for saying pressures are falling?

he never said it was coming to him....at all
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303. 7544
hmmm looks like they just might relocate the center under the big blob we shall see
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Quoting Dakster:
Anyone thinking low end TD by tonight?

Its a possibility... Depending on what Recon finds.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1146
Quoting seminolesfan:


Dry air, people. Its there. Its having an impact.


Dry air has always been impacting 91L. Nothing new here...
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4905
Quoting TylerStanfield:

That was with the old center, looks to have dissipated. Recon has yet to investigate the new suspect center that has developed...


New tighter center under the convection.. hmm very interesting
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Really starting to wind up on visible.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Tampa-Tampa Bay area needs to check to make sure their sheilds are working............
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8846
Lost my link...can someone post up the recon page to follow flight. thank you
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Quoting tropicalnewbee:
Wash your avatar is going to give me epilepsy!! :)
Sorry about that :).

The GFS (again this is suppose to be taken with caution) shows another storm developing in the caribbean/gulf 12 days from now.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16439
Quoting scottsvb:


yeah it's coming for you
This is one of the reasons why so many people have left WU. He said nothing about it coming to Cayman. He simply said the pressure at the airport is 1011 mb and falling.
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Anyone thinking low end TD by tonight?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pressure in the 1007mb range...no west winds.

That was with the old center, looks to have dissipated. Recon has yet to investigate the new suspect center that has developed...
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1146
Recon now at NHC forecast point for the Low,and there is no Low there! This supports the relocation theory.

Pressure is down there however but no windshift.


Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 18:57Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 18:57Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 25.0N 88.6W
Location: 355 miles (572 km) to the SSE (165) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 300 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 24C
Flight Level Dew Point: 24C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1007 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind Direction: Bearing was unavailable.
Estimated Surface Wind Speed: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 10 knots (~ 11.5mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

At NHC fcst point
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hmm Grand Cayman airport has 1011mb and falling

Maybe the storm will begin to retrograde your way.
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Quoting seminolesfan:


Dry air, people. Its there. Its having an impact.


Yep. Thanks for pointing it out, Great job...
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1146
Arctic Shipping Code Seen In Place By 2016 – IMO

BY REUTERS ON JUNE 5, 2013
By Gwladys Fouche

OSLO, June 5 (Reuters) – A code regulating shipping in the high Arctic, where maritime traffic is expected to increase as the ice cap recedes, is due to be implemented in 2016, the U.N. shipping agency said.

Shipping along the Arctic northern sea route is set to grow more than 30-fold over the next eight years and could account for a quarter of the cargo traffic between Europe and Asia by 2030.


“We are preparing a mandatory code for polar navigation,” Koji Sekimizu, secretary-general of the United Nations International Maritime Organisation (IMO), said on Wednesday.

“It will be operational in 2015 (and) will probably be implemented in 2016.”

The code aims to ensure safe navigation in a fragile ecological environment, where infrastructure is few and help in case of an accident is far away.

“A new code will govern all technical requirements covering design and operations,” Sekimizu told reporters.

“It will ensure the competence of seafarers … We will ensure that unless we have trained competent seafarers on board to navigate, then that vessel cannot be allowed to navigate.”

With global warming thawing sea ice, the route, which runs along Russia’s northern coast and links Europe with ports in East Asia, is opening for longer and longer each year. (Editing by James Jukwey)
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
we really need more gulf bouys......
sorry buddy....no money for scientific endevors :)
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Wash your avatar is going to give me epilepsy!! :)
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hmm Grand Cayman airport has 1011mb and falling


yeah it's coming for you
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Recon heading to the new center:

Time: 18:45:30Z
Coordinates: 25.45N 89.2W
Acft. Static Air Press: 977.2 mb (~ 28.86 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 271 meters (~ 889 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.8 mb (~ 29.76 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 70° at 16 knots (From the ENE at ~ 18.4 mph)
Air Temp: 23.1°C (~ 73.6°F)
Dew Pt: 22.0°C (~ 71.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 16 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 14 knots* (~ 16.1 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr



If this new LLC is where it appears to be on satellite imagery its going to drastically change guidance.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1534
91L is really healthy! It makes me dreaming... here in the N Leewards, there is nothing else than that boring, terribly boring dust.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I hope I am right but it is a circulation that spins opposite of the developing cyclone that helps ventilate it which in turn will aid in reducing the effects of wind shear on the system.

Good enough. :)
Its a area of Higher pressure that spins in the upper levels of the atmosphere, clockwise; like it should, on top of the area of low pressure which helps ventilate it.... for further explanation :)
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1146
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I hope I am right but it is a circulation that spins opposite of the developing cyclone that helps ventilate it which in turn will aid in reducing the effects of wind shear on the system.
So it's an aid to become stronger?
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so one 1006mb low,, yet to find out what the other llc is...already see 1007
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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