Gulf Distubance 91L More Organized, Headed Towards Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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Tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico has gotten more organized over the past day, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission of 2013 this afternoon to see if the storm is becoming a tropical depression. Buoy 42003 near the heaviest thunderstorms of 91L measured sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops show a lopsided storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of a center of circulation that is trying to develop at the edge of a region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is due to a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, by Thursday, and 91L is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. NHC is giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. I put these odds higher, at 60%. If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. A swath from Florida to New England can expect 2 - 4" of rain. A few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is predicted for Cedar Key, Florida, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens.

The storm is getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it quickly to the north-northeast beginning on Thursday, with the center expected to move over coastal North Carolina on Friday afternoon, and over Massachusetts on Friday night. If 91L does manage to become a tropical storm before making landfall on Thursday, it will quickly degenerate into a regular extratropical low pressure system before moving up the East Coast.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending June 12, 2013 from the NWS/NCEP. A swath of 2 - 4" of rain is expected from Florida to New England from 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sar2401:

Good afternoon, Nigel. How's the weather down your way?

It's very windy...we're having a bit of intermittent showers as well.
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Quoting nigel20:
Good afternoon friends!

Hey Nigel! How's it going?
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4898
379. 7544
25.1/ 87.1 new center maybe its putting on a show now lol
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Quoting nigel20:
Good afternoon friends!
Hi Nigel, how's it going buddy?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
even if the second llc they just found is the right one, it's right in line with all the east models...

my westcasting is officially useless.....

no big N GA rain....should stay south and east of ATL as i expected.
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Recon literally just started flying east to find the new center.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
375. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


man you made me freak for a second I thought that was now well now I see this is back in 10

lol
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Quoting TylerStanfield:
Recon en route to new suspected low. Recon also finding some small vorticies spinning around to the west of the storm.


This is it!
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 333
Quoting nigel20:
Good afternoon friends!

Good afternoon, Nigel. How's the weather down your way?
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Quoting nigel20:
Good afternoon friends!
Good afternoon Nigel.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
Quoting K8eCane:


Im no Met, but I always say NEVER underestimate a tropical system.
And that doesnt mean it helps to overestimate it.
It does not.


Yes of course...it should remain a minimal storm with winds in the 40-50 mph range with some of the stronger squalls, especially the ones that form severe cells on the East side of the system.
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Good afternoon friends!
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You know, I'm usually a huge doubting Thomas who thinks that names mean nothing anymore and that so many storms get named that shouldn't be named, wanting to push the start of the season off further and watching the people of the blog agonize over the silence.

But this one, this is the real deal. Looks like a classic June TS in the Gulf. I completely agree this deserves a name. And considering the forecast for it to track up the spine of 95, that will probably happen.

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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Tampa-Tampa Bay area needs to check to make sure their sheilds are working............


They won't work, lol. Its likely very heavy rains will set up tomorrow here, and I expect them to persist into Friday as well. Based on model tracks, the heaviest rainfall will likely track over west central Florida since the south and southeast quadrant of this system is where the most convergence and lift is, hence deeper convection and heavier rain totals.
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367. JRRP
Quoting JLPR2:


I agree. Impressive 92L from 2010.

i forgot that...
:)
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Moving NE right for Tampa. Really tightening up on satellite.
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 333
Quoting sar2401:

Then you haven't been paying attention during your 7000+ posts.


Saying some systems to hi west or south will come to him and saying a storm is randomly going to drop south from the GOM to the Caribbean sea are completely different things.

He NEVER implied this system would come to him
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Quoting hericane96:


Yep looks like a new low has formed in the convection and looks to be ramping up to. This should shift the models futher east if it is what it appears to be.


Yeah, it looks like the new center is ~2 east of the old LLC.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
Recon en route to new suspected low. Recon also finding some small vorticies spinning around to the west of the storm.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1097
Quoting TylerStanfield:

The higher in the atmosphere the lower the reading of pressure will be, which means they will adjust it to the surface estimated pressure.
yes,thank you
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361. VR46L
Been alot of rain in the peninsula ..... Not

NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/accumulations/geo/6-hour

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I feel the need to point out that Barry from 2007 is a near perfect analog for 91L in both track and intensity.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i know nothing of the sort

Then you haven't been paying attention during your 7000+ posts.
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1007.0 minimum

and wind shift
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191430 2447N 08740W 9877 00177 0080 +235 +221 178001 002 009 000 00
191500 2448N 08738W 9876 00178 0081 +234 +222 020001 002 012 000 03
191530 2449N 08735W 9881 00171 0077 +235 +213 034003 003 011 001 03

Very strange wind direction flip.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
No it's there..It comes up clearer on the other model with the red and orange/purple colors..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Really starting to wind up on visible.



Yep looks like a new low has formed in the convection and looks to be ramping up to. This should shift the models futher east if it is what it appears to be.
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Quoting GrandCaymanMed:
Just like Debbie 2012 and Barry 2007, 91L is organizing despite battling days of shear and dry air. Never underestimate a sheared June system. I think the west coast of Florida will have tropical storm warnings later today.


Im no Met, but I always say NEVER underestimate a tropical system.
And that doesnt mean it helps to overestimate it.
It does not.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
We have some west winds. Does that confirm a circulation? And have they found strong enough winds for a TD yet?

That thing they went through is just a weak swirl that the storm rejected a while back. No confirmation on an official centerfix yet.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1097
We have some west winds. Does that confirm a circulation? And have they found strong enough winds for a TD yet?
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Just like Debbie 2012 and Barry 2007, 91L is organizing despite battling days of shear and dry air. Never underestimate a sheared June system. I think the west coast of Florida will have tropical storm warnings later today.
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Quoting Ameister12:
I was very uncertain whether 91L would ever develop or not earlier today. My thoughts have certainly changed since this morning.


Convection has really starting to tighten up around the apparent dominant Low beating out some dry air in the process. It has another about 12-24 hours to try and get going before It impacts Florida. Very Interesting start to an active season.
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 333
Quoting washingtonian115:




I don't see it. All I see is a broad low over the Yukitan.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks to me like we're on the brink of having a tropical cyclone.


190430 2440N 08820W 9772 00266 0073 +240 +226 257002 002 017 000 03
190500 2439N 08819W 9771 00267 0073 +240 +225 294002 003 014 000 00
190530 2437N 08817W 9770 00269 0073 +238 +225 305002 003 011 001 03


Might want to check those coords with a visible image..... the ole organized deep convection about a well defined center....
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Quoting cg2916:


I think the center is a little bit west of where the NHC had originally thought and they'll hit it a little better on the second pass to see if there really is a closed circulation. I think you're right, though, but if the center is that far west and it's not closed, this thing's gonna have a tough time.

There's a new Circulation.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1097
Quoting tropicalnewbee:
I know it don't mean a whole lot but we are under a flood watch now..
That's very important to know since you are in the storms path.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
I know it don't mean a whole lot but we are under a flood watch now..
Member Since: October 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 169
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
My bad, I'm not looking at satellite imagery in comparison to the coordinates. All I see is near west winds and a decent pressure.

Yeah, its fine... Im watching it on Google Earth. They haven't made their way for the new Circulation yet...
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1097
possible 1007mb large gyre fix
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


12 days? Mind posting the frame?


Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
Quoting TylerStanfield:

That's for the old circulation... *Facepalm* They found the old dying circulation....
My bad, I'm not looking at satellite imagery in comparison to the coordinates. All I see is near west winds and a decent pressure.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
and this is ocurring during DMIN?
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
~ 3,136 feet) 1006.2 mb
how does the altitude effect that reading......that reading is between 925mb and 850mb?


Problem with that reading is the previous reading was from:

611 meters
(~ 2,005 feet)

And the next reading was from:

1,215 meters
(~ 3,986 feet)

Quite a bit of turbulance. Generally readings are not reliable unless the plane is at a steady altitude.
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OK Where is Levi on this thing?
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Storm has gotten better organized as as well as the new LLCOC is becoming better define. We may have Andrea soon. Also it moving closer to the Coastline. I am not seeing this going all to way up to the Panhandle like before. Tampa will go under TS warnings if this does develop.
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 333
I was very uncertain whether 91L would ever develop or not earlier today. My thoughts have certainly changed since this morning.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4898
334. 7544
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks to me like we're on the brink of having a tropical cyclone.


190430 2440N 08820W 9772 00266 0073 +240 +226 257002 002 017 000 03
190500 2439N 08819W 9771 00267 0073 +240 +225 294002 003 014 000 00
190530 2437N 08817W 9770 00269 0073 +238 +225 305002 003 011 001 03


agree might even skip td satus and get a name at this point so close to land
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

That's for the old circulation... *Facepalm* They found the old dying circulation....

It's just a swirl of an old rejected circulation.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1097
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42 WEST THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE WILL BECOME VERY WEAK WHEN
REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS.


Don't ask me to smile when I read that!! Lol
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Quoting scottsvb:


Those only work during hurricanes, not weaker Tropical Storms or troughs.... lol


It's not over yet.................... :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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