Gulf Distubance 91L More Organized, Headed Towards Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

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Tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico has gotten more organized over the past day, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission of 2013 this afternoon to see if the storm is becoming a tropical depression. Buoy 42003 near the heaviest thunderstorms of 91L measured sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops show a lopsided storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of a center of circulation that is trying to develop at the edge of a region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is due to a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, by Thursday, and 91L is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. NHC is giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. I put these odds higher, at 60%. If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. A swath from Florida to New England can expect 2 - 4" of rain. A few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is predicted for Cedar Key, Florida, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens.

The storm is getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it quickly to the north-northeast beginning on Thursday, with the center expected to move over coastal North Carolina on Friday afternoon, and over Massachusetts on Friday night. If 91L does manage to become a tropical storm before making landfall on Thursday, it will quickly degenerate into a regular extratropical low pressure system before moving up the East Coast.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending June 12, 2013 from the NWS/NCEP. A swath of 2 - 4" of rain is expected from Florida to New England from 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
45mph SFC winds, 54mph at flight level.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Time: 19:42:30Z
Coordinates: 25.4833N 85.8333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 971.4 mb (~ 28.69 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 306 meters (~ 1,004 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.4 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 122° at 45 knots (From the ESE at ~ 51.7 mph)
Air Temp: 21.1°C (~ 70.0°F)
Dew Pt: 21.1°C (~ 70.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 47 knots (~ 54.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 15 mm/hr (~ 0.59 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

I expect 91L to be upgraded to a Tropical Storm at 5pm est.



Except the Low is open.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1537
What we're seeing is likely the beginning of the split the GFS showed....CMC has it now....ecmwf shows it but rapidly consolidates the second low & takes it inland

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Quoting Ricki13th:


Right On My Birthday. What a great gift LOL!
HBD hope you have an awesome birthday.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4306


Huh. Confusing little bugger is still open. Going to wait and see what the next pass around reveals but it certainly looks to be an open low to that southwest quadrant still.


Meaning not a TD yet.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1537
45 to 50 Knots winds!!!
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Time: 19:42:30Z
Coordinates: 25.4833N 85.8333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 971.4 mb (~ 28.69 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 306 meters (~ 1,004 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.4 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 122° at 45 knots (From the ESE at ~ 51.7 mph)
Air Temp: 21.1°C (~ 70.0°F)
Dew Pt: 21.1°C (~ 70.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 47 knots (~ 54.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 15 mm/hr (~ 0.59 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

I expect 91L to be upgraded to a Tropical Storm at 5pm est.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
45mph SFC winds, 54mph at flight level.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
Quoting Ameister12:

2010 was my favorite year. Who wouldn't love to see another "Igor"?



Igor was probably a Category 5 too, SAB and TAFB all were at 7.0 for a time.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
nothing yet... HA!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting Ameister12:

2010 was my favorite year. Who wouldn't love to see another "Igor"?


My guess are the Canadians that were affected by Igor wouldn't want to see another one.... but other then that i'd like to :p
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Quoting allancalderini:
Depending on 91L the season for this year may start in June 5.


Right On My Birthday. What a great gift LOL!
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 405
Quoting GTcooliebai:
GFDL & HWRF models ran.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
GFDL & HWRF models ran.




On the old data pre recon. Not going to end up being that useful.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1537
468. 7544
so the drop the rain totals from 3 to 5 down to 1 to3 inch for south east fl they may have to bring them back up again imo if it keeps going more east than north
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Quoting Levi32:
No closed low has been found yet. The pressure minimum was with 35kt flight-level winds. The plane must sample more before we will know if there is a closed circulation anywhere near there. It is currently too hard to tell on visible imagery.



unless they narrowly missed it.......their star they do should clear that up
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Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1537
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm hoping for a 2010-like season, but I fear we could get something akin to 2008...

2010 was my favorite year. Who wouldn't love to see another "Igor"?

Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4975
GFDL & HWRF models ran.

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Depending on 91L the season for this year may start in June 5.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4306
no center fix yet
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Latest visible imagery:

Latest Sat loop: Link
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1537
However, if we do get an upgrade based on the winds just being picked up it is probable it would be Tropical Storm Andrea, not Tropical Depression 1.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
Looking like a TD/TS... Now what will the NHC do?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10276
This is gonna be a close one
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Going to have to wait for another pass to see whether its open or closed. Looks open very hard to tell.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1537
Unflagged 39 kt winds!

194230 2529N 08550W 9714 00306 0064 +211 +211 122045 047 039 015 00
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Hard to tell if we're dealing with a tropical cyclone or not, recon needs to check out the rest of the circulation -- what we may be seeing might be vorticies rotating around a main circulation that the HH are flying through.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
42kts max wind thus far now...
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Plenty of tropical storm force winds...albeit some contaminated. Flight-level winds rather impressive nevertheless.


194130 2527N 08552W 9782 00249 0064 +222 //// 127037 042 036 017 05
194200 2528N 08551W 9776 00250 0061 +219 //// 121043 046 039 015 01
194230 2529N 08550W 9714 00306 0064 +211 +211 122045 047 039 015 00
194300 2530N 08548W 9694 00326 0068 +211 +211 126042 047 038 014 03
194330 2531N 08547W 9703 00321 0070 +210 +210 127042 043 040 012 03
194400 2532N 08546W 9699 00328 0072 +204 //// 129040 042 039 013 05
194430 2534N 08545W 9696 00331 0072 +205 //// 129043 043 036 012 05
194500 2535N 08545W 9697 00328 0072 +207 +207 129043 044 034 010 00
194530 2537N 08544W 9700 00329 0075 +209 //// 128041 042 036 008 01
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Quoting Ameister12:
Gotta love when hurricane season has such an interesting and exciting start.

I'm hoping for a 2010-like season, but I fear we could get something akin to 2008...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
Quoting TylerStanfield:
Recon finding S and SE quad closed, and 35-40 mph winds


Guess that "Puny sheared low pressure system" heard you. Looks very promising now.
Member Since: August 15, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 220
HDOB with 40 mph sfc NE quadrant.

19:30:00Z 25.100N 86.517W 982.7 mb
(~ 29.02 inHg) 193 meters
(~ 633 feet) 1004.8 mb
(~ 29.67 inHg) - From 208° at 28 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 32.2 mph) 23.1°C
(~ 73.6°F) 22.3°C
(~ 72.1°F) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 24 knots*
(~ 27.6 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 22.4 knots* (~ 25.8 mph*)
80.0%*
19:30:30Z 25.117N 86.483W 982.3 mb
(~ 29.01 inHg) 200 meters
(~ 656 feet) 1004.9 mb
(~ 29.67 inHg) - From 196° at 34 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 39.1 mph) 23.5°C
(~ 74.3°F) 22.1°C
(~ 71.8°F) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) 27 knots*
(~ 31.0 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 26.2 knots* (~ 30.2 mph*)
77.1%*
19:31:00Z 25.133N 86.450W 982.1 mb
(~ 29.00 inHg) 204 meters
(~ 669 feet) 1005.2 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 182° at 34 knots
(From the S at ~ 39.1 mph) 23.4°C
(~ 74.1°F) 22.1°C
(~ 71.8°F) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) 25 knots*
(~ 28.7 mph*) 2 mm/hr*
(~ 0.08 in/hr*) 24.3 knots* (~ 27.9 mph*)
71.4%*
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1537
Latest Recco

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 19:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 19:26Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 25.0N 86.8W
Location: 316 miles (509 km) to the W (276°) from Key West, FL, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In and out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 210 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 250° at 16 knots (From the WSW at ~ 18.4 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 21°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 21°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1006 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 260° at 15 knots (From the W at ~ 17.2 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 13 knots (~ 15.0mph)
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1537
We might have Andrea. 35-40mph on the eastern side where the strongest convection is.
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 405
No closed low has been found yet. The pressure minimum was with 35kt flight-level winds. The plane must sample more before we will know if there is a closed circulation anywhere near there. It is currently too hard to tell on visible imagery.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Gotta love when a hurricane season has such an interesting and exciting start.
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Standing by for upcoming VDM
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1537
NEW COC FOUND! Location: 25 North by 86 West. Pressure 1004.6 wind on NE quadrant 40 mph surface. Likely to be open at this time will wait for more data.

1.
Time: 19:30:30Z
Coordinates: 25.1167N 86.4833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 982.3 mb (~ 29.01 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 200 meters (~ 656 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.9 mb (~ 29.67 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 196 at 34 knots (From the SSW at ~ 39.1 mph)
Air Temp: 23.5C (~ 74.3F)
Dew Pt: 22.1C (~ 71.8F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 27 knots* (~ 31.0 mph*)

2. Time: 19:25:00Z
Coordinates: 25.0167N 86.9W
Acft. Static Air Press: 987.4 mb (~ 29.16 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 164 meters (~ 538 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.2 mb (~ 29.71 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 249 at 8 knots (From the WSW at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: 23.3C (~ 73.9F)
Dew Pt: 21.4C (~ 70.5F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 7 knots (~ 8.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)


3. Time: 19:34:30Z
Coordinates: 25.3N 86.2833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 982.3 mb (~ 29.01 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 213 meters (~ 699 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.4 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 159 at 23 knots (From the SSE at ~ 26.4 mph)
Air Temp: 23.4C (~ 74.1F)
Dew Pt: 21.3C (~ 70.3F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 25 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/h




Possible andrea with this certainly a depression.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1537
Recon finding S and SE quad closed, and 35-40 mph winds
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1285
Get out the popcorn, Andrea may be entering stage left shortly.
Member Since: August 15, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 220
RAP has about 37 knot winds in that convection, so I think the actual readings may be around 35-40 knots
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889
Quoting scottsvb:


Yep 1005mbs...question now does the MLC move NE and leave the LLC behind...thus keeping this from getting better organized tonight (aka GFS).... we will see


Not Likely Its ramping up as we speak headed for Tampa Bay. It will remain stacked until the trough brings shear down the road. bottom line it has time to deep some more.
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 405
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Blogs about to go into hyperdrive.
F5 F5 F5!!!!!! hey to everyone, here for another season of lurking!! and wearing out my refresh button!
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Funny how the storm that is about to hit my beach right as I'm about to vacation is so similar to Barry 2007, which also hit me on my beach trip.
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Quoting Ricki13th:
1004 mb over new COC we have a closed low now


I didn't see a VDM, yet...
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omg.. with this much traffic for the current situation, I hope the good Dr has upgraded the servers this year!
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Quoting DataNerd:
New LLC motion is NNE by NE at 5-10.

Guidance will be shifting east quite a bit, tampa may get its storm after all.


Andrea or whatever is forecasted to make landfall between Pasco-Big Bend..more like Citrus or Levi county but most of the heavier rain and Tornado threat will be from there south along the west coast and across C Florida anyways.
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1004.8 mb; fl lv 35 kts; sfmr 29 kts no flag
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Pressure of 1004.6 and falling. Winds of upt to 35 Kt. Probable TD but still no evidence of new COC. Note: Below data is slightly lagged.

Time: 19:32:30Z
Coordinates: 25.2N 86.3667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 982.6 mb (~ 29.02 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 204 meters (~ 669 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.9 mb (~ 29.70 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 170° at 27 knots (From the S at ~ 31.0 mph)
Air Temp: 23.5°C (~ 74.3°F)
Dew Pt: 21.6°C (~ 70.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 22 knots* (~ 25.3 mph
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1537
I'd say we have a 70% shot of seeing the NHC name this at 5pm

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889
30mph winds.....no andrea support yet

td1 maybe...should shift tracks waaaaay east.....SE rainfall amounts will go down to .5 - 1.5"

mostly in FL and the atlantic coast.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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