Gulf Distubance 91L More Organized, Headed Towards Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on June 05, 2013

Share this Blog
52
+

Tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico has gotten more organized over the past day, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly their first mission of 2013 this afternoon to see if the storm is becoming a tropical depression. Buoy 42003 near the heaviest thunderstorms of 91L measured sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops show a lopsided storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of a center of circulation that is trying to develop at the edge of a region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is due to a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, by Thursday, and 91L is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. NHC is giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. I put these odds higher, at 60%. If it does develop, it will be difficult for 91L to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. A swath from Florida to New England can expect 2 - 4" of rain. A few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet is predicted for Cedar Key, Florida, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens.

The storm is getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it quickly to the north-northeast beginning on Thursday, with the center expected to move over coastal North Carolina on Friday afternoon, and over Massachusetts on Friday night. If 91L does manage to become a tropical storm before making landfall on Thursday, it will quickly degenerate into a regular extratropical low pressure system before moving up the East Coast.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending June 12, 2013 from the NWS/NCEP. A swath of 2 - 4" of rain is expected from Florida to New England from 91L.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 731 - 681

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

No VDM yet but it wouldn't surprise me if we got one shortly.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting gator23:


I wonder if it makes it that far south, models are saying North Florida/Big Bend

Watches and Warnings will probably go from Naples to Apalachicola
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Very nice tropical wave in the CATL

Definitely going to be a classic MDR year...



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
What does VDM stand for?


vortex data message, i had to ask about 10 minutes ago
Quoting Ameister12:

Oooooh!!! Looks like somebody is eating crow for dinner! :P


did someone say crow?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The NHC doesn't follow that part of the criteria very strictly...


Thus the subjective determination.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
What does VDM stand for?


See #721
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DellOperator:
Cool surface outflows pulsing out from under the mid level t-storms from dry air entrainment.


You looking at the latest hi-res vis loops before the Sun goes down?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Recon data shows a really well defined center.

So where is the VDM I wonder.

Time: 20:58:30Z
Coordinates: 25.0167N 86.55W
Acft. Static Air Press: 984.1 mb (~ 29.06 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 185 meters (~ 607 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.1 mb (~ 29.68 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 240° at 35 knots (From the WSW at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 23.7°C (~ 74.7°F)
Dew Pt: 22.0°C (~ 71.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 37 knots (~ 42.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 25 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
723. Skyepony (Mod)
1004.9 mb ~25.1N 86.7W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Tropical requires deep convection about a well defined center. Subjective determination, mine is it does not have it.


It has deep convection, but it is simply displaced from shear
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Astrometeor:


Question: What is a vortex message and what is it used for?


VDM = VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

Details in this Link.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lowest Central Pressure is 1004.6
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JRRP:
See you later

I wouldn't be surprised if that thing got mentioned in the next TWO. Very impressive for early June.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Tropical requires deep convection about a well defined center. Subjective determination, mine is it does not have it.

The NHC doesn't follow that part of the criteria very strictly...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting JRRP:
See you later
Might be Barry later on.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Well shoot. And I put down July 10th for first named storm.

Oooooh!!! Looks like somebody is eating crow for dinner! :P
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082
What does VDM stand for?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Looks like they might have found the center.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting Ricki13th:
Tampa to go under TS watch/warnings.


I wonder if it makes it that far south, models are saying North Florida/Big Bend
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


All that means is shear. Subtropical requires a cold pool aloft. There is no cold pool above the new center that the recon has found.


Tropical requires deep convection about a well defined center. Subjective determination, mine is it does not have it.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
Cool surface outflows pulsing out from under the mid level t-storms from dry air entrainment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is likely the blogs mood in general right now.
Member Since: August 15, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 220
Quoting HCW:
This is clearly a Subtropical system
Quoting TylerStanfield:

No. Its Tropical.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Wondering if they go Subtropical since not much convection around the center. Just my opinion.



The system has a warm core. This would be impossible.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
the first of many to go, 2013
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
707. JRRP
See you later
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TylerStanfield:

No. Its Tropical.


Agreed... This isn't a baroclinic storm
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10754
Entire page of westerlies.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Wondering if they go Subtropical since not much convection around the center. Just my opinion.

No. Its Tropical.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Well shoot. And I put down July 10th for first named storm.


GO change your prediction before they renumber it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tampa to go under TS watch/warnings.
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 407
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Wondering if they go Subtropical since not much convection around the center. Just my opinion.


All that means is shear. Subtropical requires a cold pool aloft. There is no cold pool above the new center that the recon has found.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
700. HCW
This is clearly a Subtropical system
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Well shoot. And I put down July 10th for first named storm.

We both beat... :/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Expect Renumber within the hour , looking at recon data its 70-80 percent closed still open to the west and northwest, max winds thus far are between 45-50 with some isolated 55+ lets wait and see , expect TS warnings for you folks in the sarasota area points north to panama city
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Recon is doing a little loop to fix the center. Looks to be a closed low after all. Still need that VDM though. But winds suggest its closed.

So probably we have andrea.

Time: 20:51:00Z
Coordinates: 25.1N 86.6667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 984.3 mb (~ 29.07 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 183 meters (~ 600 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.1 mb (~ 29.68 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 245° at 21 knots (From the WSW at ~ 24.1 mph)
Air Temp: 24.0°C (~ 75.2°F)
Dew Pt: 22.9°C (~ 73.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 22 knots (~ 25.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)

Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Quoting WxLogic:
Nice... just need the Vortex message if they're happy with it to make it official.


Question: What is a vortex message and what is it used for?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wondering if they go Subtropical since not much convection around the center. Just my opinion.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
Definite wind-shift associated with what appears to be a closed low -- should be Tropical Storm Andrea sometime soon.

Wait for a VDM for official confirmation though.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
West winds are confirmed will wait to see if there is a VDM

Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
20:46:00Z 25.300N 86.883W 984.1 mb
(~ 29.06 inHg) 185 meters
(~ 607 feet) 1005.0 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 45° at 35 knots
(From the NE at ~ 40.2 mph) 22.8°C
(~ 73.0°F) 20.7°C
(~ 69.3°F) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 23.3 knots (~ 26.8 mph)
66.7%
20:46:30Z 25.267N 86.867W 983.9 mb
(~ 29.05 inHg) 186 meters
(~ 610 feet) 1005.1 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 39° at 35 knots
(From the NE at ~ 40.2 mph) 22.7°C
(~ 72.9°F) 20.8°C
(~ 69.4°F) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 25.3 knots (~ 29.1 mph)
72.2%
20:47:00Z 25.250N 86.850W 984.0 mb
(~ 29.06 inHg) 186 meters
(~ 610 feet) 1005.3 mb
(~ 29.69 inHg) - From 35° at 34 knots
(From the NE at ~ 39.1 mph) 22.7°C
(~ 72.9°F) 20.9°C
(~ 69.6°F) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 23.3 knots (~ 26.8 mph)
68.6%
20:47:30Z 25.217N 86.833W 984.3 mb
(~ 29.07 inHg) 182 meters
(~ 597 feet) 1005.2 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 32° at 32 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 36.8 mph) 22.7°C
(~ 72.9°F) 21.1°C
(~ 70.0°F) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 23.5 knots (~ 27.1 mph)
73.5%
20:48:00Z 25.200N 86.817W 983.9 mb
(~ 29.05 inHg) 186 meters
(~ 610 feet) 1005.2 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 33° at 30 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 34.5 mph) 22.6°C
(~ 72.7°F) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 23.2 knots (~ 26.7 mph)
77.4%
20:48:30Z 25.167N 86.800W 984.0 mb
(~ 29.06 inHg) 187 meters
(~ 614 feet) 1005.3 mb
(~ 29.69 inHg) - From 29° at 30 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 34.5 mph) 22.6°C
(~ 72.7°F) 21.9°C
(~ 71.4°F) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 23.2 knots (~ 26.7 mph)
77.4%
20:49:00Z 25.150N 86.783W 984.0 mb
(~ 29.06 inHg) 183 meters
(~ 600 feet) 1005.0 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 18° at 26 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 29.9 mph) 23.0°C
(~ 73.4°F) 22.1°C
(~ 71.8°F) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 19.7 knots (~ 22.7 mph)
75.9%
20:49:30Z 25.133N 86.750W 984.2 mb
(~ 29.06 inHg) 183 meters
(~ 600 feet) 1005.0 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 2° at 22 knots
(From the N at ~ 25.3 mph) 23.5°C
(~ 74.3°F) 22.3°C
(~ 72.1°F) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 23 knots
(~ 26.4 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 20.2 knots (~ 23.3 mph)
92.0%
20:50:00Z 25.117N 86.733W 984.3 mb
(~ 29.07 inHg) 185 meters
(~ 607 feet) 1005.2 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 339° at 15 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 17.2 mph) 24.0°C
(~ 75.2°F) 22.8°C
(~ 73.0°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 20 knots*
(~ 23.0 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 15.8 knots* (~ 18.2 mph*)
105.3%*
20:50:30Z 25.100N 86.700W 984.1 mb
(~ 29.06 inHg) 185 meters
(~ 607 feet) 1005.1 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 278° at 15 knots
(From the W at ~ 17.2 mph) 24.0°C
(~ 75.2°F) 23.1°C
(~ 73.6°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 8 knots*
(~ 9.2 mph*) 3 mm/hr*
(~ 0.12 in/hr*) 6.3 knots* (~ 7.3 mph*)
42.1%
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1546
Still gotta wait for a VDM, though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On my journey to Homestead:
After leaving the dry dry panhandle of Florida where the dry air still is, I have arrived in Palatka, FL. The airmass here is more moist and tropical with storms blossoming everywhere.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We have a close circulation
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 407
Quoting Levi32:
Looks closed to me.



Well shoot. And I put down July 10th for first named storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nice... just need the Vortex message if they're happy with it to make it official.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
re: That thing we all posted.

Looks like lots of folks love your site, Levi!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From 339° at 15 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 17.2 mph)
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
We got a closed low!

And so it begins!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082
We have a Closed LOW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
looks like the classic june east lopsided weak storm. what chance do you give it of becoming andrea
100%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yepper... looks closed.

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10754

Viewing: 731 - 681

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
29 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron