Little Change to 91L; Amateur Storm Chaser Killed in May 31 El Reno, OK Tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:59 PM GMT on June 04, 2013

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There has been little change to tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, today, so any development should be slow to occur. However, wind shear is predicted to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Wednesday, which should give 91L a better chance to organize. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Thursday. I put these odds higher, at 40%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, but this flight will likely be cancelled. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Video 1. The May 31, 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma EF-3 tornado as filmed from a commercial tornado tour led by Tempest Tours. This is one of the most impressive videos I've ever seen, from a meteorological standpoint, of a developing tornado. It appears that the chasers got closer to the tornado than they liked, as evidenced by the honking horns you hear, telling people to leave, a few minutes into the video.

Amateur storm chaser killed in Friday's El Reno tornado
Tornado scientist Tim Samaras and his two chase partners, Paul Samaras and Carl Young, were killed Friday by an EF-3 tornado that hit El Reno, Oklahoma. It has now been revealed that the storm killed an amateur storm chaser, Richard Charles Henderson. According to an article in The Oklahoman,

From his pickup, amateur storm chaser Richard Charles Henderson took a cellphone photo of the first tornado Friday and excitedly sent it to a friend. Minutes later, that tornado would kill him.

“That was the end of his life right there,” said the friend, George “Sonny” Slay. “He said, ‘I'm having fun,'” Slay recalled Monday. “He told me he was riding around … chasing the storms …. I said, ‘You better quit that!'
“And, then, I guess he was en route to the position that he got in because he said, ‘There goes Channel 9!' He said, ‘You might even see me on TV.' And, then a few seconds later, he said, ‘Oop, there's Channel 5!'”

Slay said the picture came in at 6:05 p.m. About 10 minutes later, Slay heard a loud popping noise over the phone. Henderson cursed, and then asked Slay if he had heard the sound.

“I said, ‘Yeah, I heard it. What was it?' And he said, ‘It's debris hitting my pickup.' I said, ‘You better get your ass out of there.' Then the phone went dead.

Henderson, of Hinton, was one of at least 18 people who died because of Friday's tornadoes and storms. His body was found near El Reno.


Henderson's death underscores the dangers of storm chasing by people who don't know what they are doing, and is also likely the unfortunate consequence of the huge amount of dramatic media attention that storm chasing has received in recent years.


Video 2. The view from my veteran storm chaser Chris Novy's D-TEG dashcam as he accidentally drove his storm chasing vehicle into a swollen creek, nearly killing him.


Figure 2. Chris Novy posted on his Facebook page this image of the bridge he drove off. Note the guard rail that stops short of the plunge he took. I hope the road commission extends this guard rail to prevent a future accident!

Veteran storm chaser almost killed in Friday's El Reno flash flood
There is also news that another veteran storm chaser, Chris Novy, nearly died in Friday's storm--but from a flash flood. As Novy recounted in Mike Smith Enterprises Blog,

"I approached a flooded road and made a quick U-turn rather than driving [all the way] into the water. This was a naturally smart move. Unfortunately my turn resulted in me plunging off a hidden embankment and splashing nose-first right into a swollen creek where I sunk straight to the bottom, I traveled several hundred feet underwater with the car quickly filling up. At one point I was completely surrounded by water and just holding my breath in the darkness. Somehow the driver-side and passenger-side windows broke and I was flushed from the vehicle. I surfaced after a bit and found myself racing down the creek. A cop called out to me and I was able to swim to him and his life-saving grab.

Analysis:
It probably would have been best for the police car (seen right before my turn) to have completely blocked the road the emergency lights on. As it was, the scene seemed like just a water hazard but probably should have been clearly marked as a no-go zone.

I should have come to a complete stop and taken more time to evaluate the situation. Ideally I should have just put it into reverse and slowly backed out. I took a dangerous situation and made it even worse leaping before I looked.

Lessons learned:
Turn around, don't drown!"



Figure 3. Portlight volunteers hard at work in Moore, Oklahoma, after the devastating May 20, 2013 tornado.

Portlight helping victims of Oklahoma tornadoes, and hosting the Getting It Right Conference
I had the pleasure last night of giving the welcoming speech to the attendees of the "Getting It Right Conference" in Atlanta, hosted by my favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org.The conference has brought together over 125 disaster response professionals to discuss shelter and transportation accessibility for people with disabilities. There will be live blogging from the conference on Portlight's wunderground blog, 8am to 5pm Tuesday, and 8am to 11am on Wednesday. Check it out! It's remarkable how far Portlight has come since its humble beginnings in September 2008, when wunderground members Patrick Pearson and Paul Timmons put together a grass-roots effort to help out victims of Hurricane Ike. Portlight has now dispensed over $2 million in aid to the needy, and hundreds of volunteers have worked on various Portlight projects since 2008. Indeed, Portlight volunteers are now hard at work helping victims of Oklahoma's devastating May tornadoes. Keep up the great work!

Jeff Masters

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665. sflmike
3:32 AM GMT on June 05, 2013
Quoting seminolesfan:
Shear Today:


Shear Thursday:



It isn't gonna blow up to a HURR and it shouldn't totally die.

Don't downcast or wishcast; Forecast or Watchcast!
If it were August or September I would be concerned.
Member Since: May 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
664. JNTenne
11:18 PM GMT on June 04, 2013

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well guys I'll be in Jamaica next week Friday and I'll be there till the 24th
What? I thought Caymanians didn't go near Jamaica??
Member Since: May 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 515
663. Barefootontherocks
10:54 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting MTWX:


The 1999 Moore, OK tornado still holds the record for highest recorded winds... 318 MPH, if I'm not mistaken...
My point is plenty other tornadoes had that kind of wind, just no one around to measure it for science

Just for the record, that 1999 tornado wind measurement also came from researchers. By now, Dr Masters has cleared this up in his new blog. Read on, MacDuff.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 17545
662. sar2401
10:41 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting RetainingH2O:
According to NOAA.gov, the average # of F3-F5 tornados appears to be declining consistently during the last 60-years (1954-present). Link

The average # of reported tornados during the same years (F-1 or larger) has been relatively stable. Link

There are several possibilities;
1) Change in standards for classifying tornados (i.e. better investigation, research & fact finding).

2) More structures are being built, more people living in the path of the storms. Fujita scale is based on severity of damage... and there is unquestionably more structures & vehicles to damage.

3) Actual reduction in strength of the most serious tornados as evidenced by the reduced trending #'s of F3-F5 tornados reported on a yearly basis.

Is there an aparent reason for the 60-year decline in powerful F3-F5 tornados, even though the average # of overall tornados is consistent?

#1 plus better construction standards in tornado prone areas. Structures that would have been totally destroyed by an EF-3, especially commercial structures, have much better connections and foundation ties than 60 years ago. I also suspect, with aerial storm damage assesment and satellite and radar data, that tornadoes that would have been classified as EF-3's are now more often classified as EF-2's.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9942
661. RetainingH2O
10:28 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
According to NOAA.gov, the average # of F3-F5 tornados appears to be declining consistently during the last 60-years (1954-present). Link

The average # of reported tornados during the same years (F-1 or larger) has been relatively stable. Link

There are several possibilities;
1) Change in standards for classifying tornados (i.e. better investigation, research & fact finding).

2) More structures are being built, more people living in the path of the storms. Fujita scale is based on severity of damage... and there is unquestionably more structures & vehicles to damage.

3) Actual reduction in strength of the most serious tornados as evidenced by the reduced trending #'s of F3-F5 tornados reported on a yearly basis.

Is there an aparent reason for the 60-year decline in powerful F3-F5 tornados, even though the average # of overall tornados is consistent?
Member Since: June 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
660. stormpetrol
10:21 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
659. stormpetrol
10:18 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
There appears to be a low trying to form just east of the Belize/Mexico also.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
658. Chicklit
10:18 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
657. TomTaylor
10:18 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
It is very possible the El Reno tornado was the strongest tornado ever observed. The 318 MPH record set by the OKC tornado in 1999 was measured ~30m up. The 296 MPH observation with the El Reno tornado was ~500ft up. Tornadoes usually have their strongest winds in the lowest 100m (maximizing around 50m up). So, the radar was looking a a stronger level of the tornado during the OKC tornado. Had the radar been at a lower level for the El Reno tornado (like the OKC tornado), it probably would've recorded a bit stronger winds...

Impossible to say for sure though. Additionally, none of these observations are surface observations. It is impossible to say how fast winds were at the surface.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
656. seminolesfan
10:16 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
There is a new blog in case anyone missed the WunderBot post on the last page...
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655. stormpetrol
10:15 PM GMT on June 04, 2013


Latest one.
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654. stormpetrol
10:13 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
653. stormpetrol
10:12 PM GMT on June 04, 2013


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652. CaribBoy
10:07 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting nigel20:

It can get very wet here in Jamaica, that's one of the reasons the island is so called "Land of Wood and Water" Our wettest tropical cyclone is the "November 1909 Hurricane"...up to 135 inches was recorded in sections of Jamaica.


Really incredible!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5605
651. LiveToFish0430
10:02 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting seminolesfan:

I give you a 60% chance of injuring a shoulder if you keep patting yourself on the back so vigorously.

I can't wait to hear what he has to say when Daytona ends up receiving 3-6 inches of rain. Probably something along the lines of " I told you guys all along Daytona was going to get a bunch of rain but nobody believed me..."
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650. Jedkins01
10:01 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
.
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649. nigel20
9:58 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting CaribBoy:


Wow! That's almost our yearly total for an average year!

It can get very wet here in Jamaica, that's one of the reasons the island is so called "Land of Wood and Water" Our wettest tropical cyclone is the "November 1909 Hurricane"...up to 135 inches was recorded in sections of Jamaica.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7477
648. SLU
9:58 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting SLU:


Numbers-wise, 2013 should be very close to 2010 too.

2010

named storms - 19
named storm days - 89.5
hurricanes - 12
hurricane days - 38.5
major hurricanes - 5
major hurricane days - 11
ACE - 165
NTC - 196


2013 (CSU's forecast)

named storms - 18
named storm days - 95
hurricanes - 9
hurricane days - 40
major hurricanes - 4
major hurricane days - 9
ACE - 165
NTC - 175

In 2010 the pattern favoured recurvature but i'm not too sure about that setup this year which is why this season looks very grim for the Caribbean and the US.


..... the reason being that the mean pattern from April 1st to June 2nd has been for a large area of anomalous ridging near eastern Canada which is the opposite of 2010.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
647. Pipejazz
9:57 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting RTSplayer:


Forbidding amateur storm chasing would probably require a constitutional amendment, particularly since it affects interstate commerce since the chasers are almost guaranteed to be crossing state lines at some point, and the videos are sold and distributed to interstate markets: television and internet.

Start telling people you'd like to make it illegal to drive down the highway while a passenger films, and I'm sure you'll get like zero votes.
Sure, but I imagine the waivers are lawyer-ed up and insurance costs are high.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 161
646. GeorgiaStormz
9:56 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
THE BIGGEST POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SOLUTION IS
CONCERNING THE GULF LOW AND THE COLD FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT SLOWS
ITS PROGRESSION OR DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH...THE GULF
LOW COULD TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TURN. THIS WOULD GREATLY INCREASE
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT...WITH THE TRACK OF
THE LOW...CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...CUTTING OFF THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...WITH MODELS CONSISTENTLY PUSHING THE LOW OFF
TO THE EAST...FEEL THAT IT IS BEST TO DO A MODEL COMPROMISE WITH
POPS...AND CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY.


BMX
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9467
645. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:54 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
644. MTWX
9:53 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Plenty have been that strong. This El Reno EF5 just happened to have an OU research team around to prove the true winds.

BTW, this is the third EF5 in what might be called the OKC Metro area since May 24, 2011. It would take an EF5 20 or more miles wide to "destroy OKC." Tornadoes are not like hurricanes. Destruction within, say, a mile-wide path is what you see in news photos and vids. Everything appears normal if you look to one side of the path or the other. Some things can even look relatively normal within the path of a violent tornado.


The 1999 Moore, OK tornado still holds the record for highest recorded winds... 318 MPH, if I'm not mistaken...
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1391
643. SLU
9:53 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting VR46L:


Fair enough !
I stand corrected .

Sorry My error


that's fine
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
642. GeorgiaStormz
9:53 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Wednesday A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 67. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a high near 82. Light east wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 8am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66.

Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.

Saturday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Sunday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.

Sunday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Monday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85.

Monday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71.

Tuesday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87.


all good except

FOR NOW THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS REMAIN TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9467
641. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:52 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Just taking a quick glance at 91L, it has definitely become better organized today. I'd give it a 50% or 60% chance in the 8pm TWO.

Bumping my chances of it ever developing to 50% (from ~40%).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30283
640. Buhdog
9:52 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Great to see you all again. I figured now would be a great time to come back to the best blog ever. Cape Coral checking in! .65 rain today.
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 958
639. intampa
9:52 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
im in ormond next to daytona and i dont like guys just women

i happen to agree that i think all this talk of massive rain for florida wont pan out but
your also kind of a jerk , since everyone on here is wrong with forecasting why dont you hang out on another site where everyone is right just like you.
Member Since: July 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 90
638. IFuSAYso
9:52 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting RTSplayer:


Woah, woah.

Let's put things in context.

Not to mention Germany is approx the size of Oregon and has an infrastructure' taxi's, street cars, and trains, that can get you almost anywhere on the cheap. Germany's population= >81 million, Oregon's population approx 4 million.
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 154
637. RTSplayer
9:52 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


As someone who has taken someone business law classes, a verbal agreement is all that is needed to verify a contract unless the contract is a substantial amount of money, or for any real estate.


Ok, but a classified advertisement is not a contract. It is an offer, or just a statement of an expected price.

People never pay the actual advertised amount in a classified advertisement, and the transaction is virtually never exactly what is advertised. That's what negotiation is, and it's why I gave that example above about a hypothetical used car ad.

Judge Judy used a classified ad as though it were a binding contract, when that cannot be the case, since there actually was no "transaction". The Bird was never given away, it was supposed to be a "Sitter" relationship, where the second woman was supposed to care for the bird till the first would reclaim it later.


If classified ads were legally binding, then "Pawn" businesses like American Pickers would be in deep crap, because they'd never be able to legally negotiate a price without later getting sued for the difference...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1503
636. barbamz
9:52 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting RTSplayer:


Woah, woah.

Let's put things in context.
That's a much bigger problem than a few deaths of tornado chasers who know the risks and made their own decisions.


Sure, I won't object to this.

Edit: Just my personal impression following the streams of the chasers (yes I do sometimes) and seeing them stopping at the gas stations over and over: I would soon run out of money doing this in Germany. No joke.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 45 Comments: 5036
635. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:52 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
oh ok thats cool no offense its just that there are alot of fruits in here as you can see by the childish and fruity comments


Sorry, but POOF
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
634. CaribBoy
9:52 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting nigel20:

2010 was a very wet year for Jamaica! We got drenched by TS Nicole..we had up 37.42 inches over a period of about 4 days.


Wow! That's almost our yearly total for an average year!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5605
632. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:49 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
631. VR46L
9:49 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting SLU:


Fair enough !
I stand corrected .

Sorry My error
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630. GeorgiaStormz
9:47 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
actually looks like the ejected llc might come all the way back around as the real one.

hard to tell how many possible llc's exist
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9467
629. hurricanehunter27
9:47 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
When has a great looking organized storm FORMED in the GOM last?
Alex from 2010. Did not really form in the GOM though.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
628. RTSplayer
9:46 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


As someone who has taken someone business law classes, a verbal agreement is all that is needed to verify a contract unless the contract is a substantial amount of money, or for any real estate.


The ad came first, but was clearly not adequate description of the "giver's" intent.

The description of the verbal agreement was that she was looking for a "sitter" to keep the bird, that's what she said she agreed to. Her complaint was that the woman was not taking proper care of "her" bird. The other woman claimed she was taking care of it.

Judge Judy threw out the plaintiff's case and gave custody of the bird to the woman who did not own it.

In fact, she never really let the plaintiff make her case, because she's so God aweful arrogant that she interrupts everyone every time they try to speak. "Go ahead...(plaintiff starts to talk), [interuptions] blah, blah, changet he subject, etc."

How she got to be a judge is perplexing to me. She's incompetent.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1503
627. JrWeathermanFL
9:46 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
When has a great looking organized storm FORMED in the GOM last?
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 1640
626. nigel20
9:45 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well guys I'll be in Jamaica next week Friday and I'll be there till the 24th

Where will you be visiting?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7477
625. hurricanehunter27
9:45 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting seminolesfan:

^^^
This post just broke my irony meter!
I have had him on ignore for a few days. The username was an obvious give away.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
624. SLU
9:44 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting VR46L:


Na It wasn't, 17.00 UTC was less than 5 hrs ago ...

GMT , UTC and Zulu all stand for the same thing




The actual time of the pass is at the bottom of the image in purple.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
623. Tornado6042008X
9:44 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting RTSplayer:


No.

The strongest tornado on record is the OTHER Moore/Bridge Creek, Oklahoma tornado (1999), with winds over 300mph.
I mean this century(2000-2013 so far).
Member Since: March 29, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 232
622. BaltimoreBrian
9:44 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Some news articles.

How Storm Chasers Have Made Tornado Alley Safer

Flooding in Germany reaches levels not seen in 5 centuries
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 8067
620. RTSplayer
9:42 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting barbamz:


Only way out: lift your prices for gas to the level of european countries (esp. Germany). Few would be able to afford those huge chasing rides any longer ...


Woah, woah.

Let's put things in context.

Tornado chaser deaths in the past several years:4.

Total tornado deaths in the past several years: A several hundred.

Alcohol related deaths in the same time: Probably around 100,000 or so.

Murder related deaths in the same time: Several ten thousands (45 per day on average).


A few storm chasers screwing up is insignificant compared to the societal problems, therefore I see no reason to punish anyone for an accident, when we don't even do what's necessary to catch or prevent murderers.

One third of Americans are already arrested at least one time before they turn 21 years of age. At least one in every 3 people you know is a convicted criminal.

That's a much bigger problem than a few deaths of tornado chasers who know the risks and made their own decisions.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1503
619. SLU
9:42 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting CaribBoy:


Models want to bring above average rainfalls in the Caribbean and MDR. This setup seriously reminds me of 2010... which was very wet!


Numbers-wise, 2013 should be very close to 2010 too.

2010

named storms - 19
named storm days - 89.5
hurricanes - 12
hurricane days - 38.5
major hurricanes - 5
major hurricane days - 11
ACE - 165
NTC - 196


2013 (CSU's forecast)

named storms - 18
named storm days - 95
hurricanes - 9
hurricane days - 40
major hurricanes - 4
major hurricane days - 9
ACE - 165
NTC - 175

In 2010 the pattern favoured recurvature but i'm not too sure about that setup this year which is why this season looks very grim for the Caribbean and the US.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
618. nigel20
9:42 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting CaribBoy:


Models want to bring above average rainfalls in the Caribbean and MDR. This setup seriously reminds me of 2010... which was very wet!

2010 was a very wet year for Jamaica! We got drenched by TS Nicole..we had up 37.42 inches over a period of about 4 days.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7477
617. wunderkidcayman
9:42 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
well guys I'll be in Jamaica next week Friday and I'll be there till the 24th
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
616. VAbeachhurricanes
9:41 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting RTSplayer:
Did anyone see that Judge Judy case with the Parrot just now?

I can't believe Judge Judy believes a classified ad is a legally binding document.

Someone should throw HER out of court, not the plaintiff.

People write classified ads which are very short because you pay by the word or by the character. The ad is not a legal contract, which ought to be obvious because barter transactions are almost always negotiated anyway.

For example, if you had an ad where a used car was for sale, advertised for $5000. The buyer and seller negotiate and agree on $4500. Later it turns out the buyer only actually paid $4000.

Using Judge Judy's insane non-logic which she used in the bird case, if the hypothetical car seller took the buyer to court, he would be awarded $1000, which is clearly wrong and ridiculous.

The verbal contract was for a "Sitter" to take care of the bird until she could take it again later. It was not for an actual free Bird.

Judge Judy literally just robbed the plaintiff on nation wide television.

One of the worst small claims court injustices I've ever seen.


As someone who has taken someone business law classes, a verbal agreement is all that is needed to verify a contract unless the contract is a substantial amount of money, or for any real estate.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5702
615. seminolesfan
9:41 PM GMT on June 04, 2013
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
oh ok thats cool no offense its just that there are alot of fruits in here as you can see by the childish and fruity comments

^^^
This post just broke my irony meter!
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2106

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.