Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stormchaser19:


But, is strange because the SST in the GOM is in 28-29 degrees Celsius
It is.
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Quoting stormchaser19:


Don't Know but, maybe is forming a SubTropical storm!!!


But, is strange because the SST in the GOM is in 28-29 degrees Celsius
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Quoting stormchaser19:


Don't Know but, maybe is forming a SubTropical storm!!!
Kind of reminds me of 2007.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Why does the GFS strengthen a circulation under the stress of shear and dry air?


Don't Know but, maybe is forming a SubTropical storm!!!
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wow what an ending to the softball game. im pretty sure everybody rooting for oklahoma. they did a good job tonight
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Mods, if I have some license for a single post TIA.

This is a Tropical Model.



This is a Surface Map.



And, this is a Water Vapor Loop. (Really don't need a shear chart with a WVL. WV tool is probably the best tool in the chest.




. . . focus! :) There will be plenty to track, debate soon enough. 91L won't be Andrea. :)

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Quoting tropicalnewbee:


Don't for get TA, Bluestorm, Tyler (formerly HurricaneDean07) and stormchaser. NO one shoot me if I missed a few of the regulars aside from the ones he missed :)
and wxchaser97 too. And thanks! I feel honored to be called regular :)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
Quoting stormchaser19:
1002 mb 69 hrs


Why does the GFS strengthen a circulation under the stress of shear and dry air?
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Mods, if I can have some license for a single post, please. TIA.

This is a Tropical Model.



This is a Surface Map.



And, this is a Water Vapor Loop. (Really don't need a shear chart with a WVL. WV tool is probably the best tool in the chest.




. . . focus! :) There will be plenty to track, debate soon enough. 91L won't be Andrea. :)
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1002 mb 69 hrs
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Quoting stormchaser19:
60 hrs
Looks like Andrea.
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60 hrs
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54 hours
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Quoting LiveToFish0430:

hahahahaha
you guys gotta admit, this guy does add some humor around here..
Why thank you.
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Quoting Andrebrooks:
and Andrebrooks too.

hahahahaha
you guys gotta admit, this guy does add some humor around here..
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Quoting Andrebrooks:
and Andrebrooks too.


I stand corrected :)
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sorry everybody but the softball and baseball games are going hard Tennessee scored 3 runs then Oklahoma come back to tie it up! in softball and the Unc and florida atlantic is still going on in extra innings! this is crazy!!!!!! but exciting!
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Quoting FIUStormChaser:


Couldn't it reform it's center in a less hostle place such as in between the Yucatan and Cuba?
I don't think so... Not with this system. It'll only develop if it can sustain some convection over the center.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
Quoting tropicalnewbee:


Don't for get Grothar, TA, Bluestorm, Tyler (formerly HurricaneDean07) and stormchaser. NO one shoot me if I missed a few of the regulars aside from the ones he missed :)
and Andrebrooks too.
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Quoting lobdelse81:
I know this is late(i was helping my sister move into her new place in Michigan so she did not have her cable/internet set up) but welcome all to another hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. I wonder what surprises are in store for us this year. Looking forward to reading the insightful blogs/comments from members such as Koritheman, Skyeponny, Keeperofthegate, Grothar, Levi, Patrap, Washingtonian. Cheers :-)


Don't for get TA, Bluestorm, Tyler (formerly HurricaneDean07) and stormchaser. NO one shoot me if I missed a few of the regulars aside from the ones he missed :)
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827. JRRP
cold part of the model
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00z Gfs 30 hoUrs

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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Sorry, not buying into the development at this time. We have a small rotating surface low in a highly-sheared, dry-air environment. That's all. Upper level shear will have to relax in a major way for any dense overcast to develop. Not happening now.

Models are still transitioning seasonal data, and sorry, but the young guys with the puters glued to all the model-watching have missed the boat. Practice fundamentals, guys. Pull out a surface map, use visibles and a few charts - old school. The Navy's 91L Invest is toast, imo, and will NOT develop under these conditions. It's a mess at best. A rain dumper maybe for sFL. I hate to go out on a limb this early in the season, but I'll bet three of you a Coca-Cola I'm right. ;) Several things will have to change to acquire an Andrea name. Boaters, for now, imo, you're safe and sound, but having a plan is always wise. :)


I'm not saying it will develop, but Debby developed in a similar environment (albeit one that was admittedly just a little more favorable than the one Invest 91L is in).
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I know this is late(i was helping my sister move into her new place in Michigan so she did not have her cable/internet set up) but welcome all to another hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. I wonder what surprises are in store for us this year. Looking forward to reading the insightful blogs/comments from members such as Koritheman, Skyeponny, Keeperofthegate, Grothar, Levi, Patrap, Washingtonian, etc, as the season unfolds. Cheers :-)
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm watching it. Crazy baseball.

Dadgum...
are you kidding me even the softball game is good!!!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes.
Are you sure we can trust that meteorologist on AmericanWx posting the numbers?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
TropicalAnalystwx13, 1900hurricane, TomTaylor would you still chase tornadoes given the chance?

Yes.
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Quoting DDR:

Very interesting,thanks for the info Nigel
.I just google maped that location.

No problem, DDR!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7997
819. Mikla
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
So on the OSCAT what is the lat and long where folks think the center is?

Crap, the image updated for a new pass on my previous post. The last "BEST" was 22.8N, 87.6W, but that seems like a bit too much lat based on OSCAT... though pretty hard to tell for sure... I'll wait for the next TWO for the experts to tell us...
Member Since: October 13, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 292
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening friends!


Good Evening
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm watching it. Crazy baseball.

Dadgum...
this is unbelievable!!! very exciting game!
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Phased Array Radar Loop of El Reno Tornado
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Atlantic Invests
Invest Position Winds Pressure
Invest #91L Lat: 22.8N, Lon:87.6W 29 mph (25 kts) 29.74 in (1007 mb)
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Good evening friends!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7997
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I didn't suggest it was competing. The rotation in question is at the mid levels. There's only one low level center, and it's sitting NW of Cozumel in some very dry air.


Couldn't it reform it's center in a less hostle place such as in between the Yucatan and Cuba?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I hope this is the future of radar...RaxPol imagery of the El Reno, OK tornado from May 31:




Interesting, the imagery reminds me of the same structure that hurricane Charley had...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7434
Quoting FIUStormChaser:




Thanks...My old eyes get tired when we got multiple circulations bouncing around.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
oh my nevermind here come UNC roaring back to tie it! 8-8!U guys have to watch this!
I'm watching it. Crazy baseball.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Met. made a new post with winds of 125 m/s (280 mph). Keep in mind this is at an elevation of 400 feet...still, that should be above EF5 threshold at ground level.
Dadgum...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
TropicalAnalystwx13, 1900hurricane, TomTaylor would you chase tornadoes if you could?

I actually have been chasing as recently as mid-April. I don't often chase due to time/budget/distance constraints, but I've managed to get off one decent chase (very subjective term) each year since my first chase in May of 2011.
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oh my nevermind here come UNC roaring back to tie it! 8-8!U guys have to watch this!
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Sorry, not buying into the development at this time. We have a small rotating surface low in a highly-sheared, dry-air environment. That's all. Upper level shear will have to relax in a major way for any dense overcast to develop. Not happening now.

Models are still transitioning seasonal data, and sorry, but the young guys with the puters glued to all the model-watching have missed the boat. Practice fundamentals, guys. Pull out a surface map, use visibles and a few charts - old school. The Navy's 91L Invest is toast, imo, and will NOT develop under these conditions. It's a mess at best. A rain dumper maybe for sFL. I hate to go out on a limb this early in the season, but I'll bet three of you a Coca-Cola I'm right. ;) Several things will have to change to acquire an Andrea name. Boaters, for now, imo, you're safe and sound, but having a plan is always wise. :)
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Met. made a new post with winds of 125 m/s (280 mph). Keep in mind this is at an elevation of 400 feet...still, that should be above EF5 threshold at ground level.


Winds can be very strong right off the deck without being as strong at ground level.
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TropicalAnalystwx13, 1900hurricane, TomTaylor would you still chase tornadoes given the chance?
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Quoting TylerStanfield:
For those trying to pinpoint 91L on satellite... Low Level Circulation is around 23.2 N and 87.9 W


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Quoting Mikla:
Couple hours old, but it's not moving...
So on the OSCAT what is the lat and long where folks think the center is?
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

That's really fast. That's >260 mi/h once you get through the conversions.

Met. made a new post with winds of 125 m/s (280 mph). Keep in mind this is at an elevation of 400 feet...still, that should be above EF5 threshold at ground level.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Maybe there is little spin but I doubt it's another low fighting the main low.
I didn't suggest it was competing. The rotation in question is at the mid levels. There's only one low level center, and it's sitting NW of Cozumel in some very dry air.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
799. Mikla
Couple hours old, but it's not moving...
Member Since: October 13, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 292
798. j2008
Quoting Dakster:
j2008 - The odds are with you, in your statement. No need for crow eating. There will be plenty of that going on later though.

For sure. I've been at this for three years now (school keeps me away from the blog more than I'd like) so we will see if my eye has improved at all.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just know from a meteorologist from other forum that DOW measured 115+ m/s.

That's really fast. That's >260 mi/h once you get through the conversions.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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