Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Drakoen:
Tis the season


Good to see you again, Drak. Hope to have a lot of good moments forecasting with you again this year.
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well, well, well, what to do we got here
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Tis the season
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Quoting LakeWorthFinn:


I agree, and would not mind sharing that Coca Cola.. ;)


LWF! :) Good to see you! We're here again - nother season of trouble. Hope you've been having fun, enjoying life!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting allancalderini:
I believe Walmart is the biggest sale store in US right?I have all of you talk about it.I mean I saw a Walmart in the big love series in HBO.
Walmart is basically in every American cities or towns. They're everywhere and they got everything you need for good prices.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, nige... didn't realize u were still on... lol...

One company reported earlier [last week] that they already had 3.5 mil in house and car claims, and that they expected that only half their clientele likely to claim had submitted them as yet. For every householder here with insurance, there are on average 2 without. So yes, I can easily see claims exceeding 30 mil... especially when water damage to cars and accidents caused by heavy downpours and localized flooding are included.

It was actually Tribune 242, but they are saying the same thing.

Patrick Ward, Bahamas First’s president and chief executive, told Tribune Business the event should act as a ‘wake-up call’ for the country, estimating that total insurance industry losses would be “in excess of $10 million”.

This means that $20 million in uninsured damage was done to southern and eastern New Providence by the more than-15 inches of rain that fell within hours on Tuesday, May 21.

Source: The Tribune 242
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8490
Quoting KoritheMan:


One thing I've noticed is that the amplitude of the fronts seem to be less this year; that is, there seems to be more shortwaves than longwaves, and the overall pattern seems much less amplified and a lot more progressive than in recent years. This is based on analysis of 700-500 mb height anomalies for the last two months, and my own experience tracking the recent streaks of severe weather across the nation.


That does seem to be true Kori...and if this continues which honestly they will likely move even further North....that would even more enhance a ridge on the EAST COAST....NOT GOOD!
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Quoting KoritheMan:

I saw you say Walmart hired you; what department?
I believe Walmart is the biggest sale store in US right?I have all of you talk about it.I mean I saw a Walmart in the big love series in HBO.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting scottsvb:



good to see you also, what you been up to?


Been playing a lot of GOLF.....and working...Golf game is getting very good. Trying to avoid these down pours in Florida now tho...WoW has it ever been raining a ton here.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Yep the Bermuda HIGH is a bit strong it seems. But, we have been seeing many fronts as Oklahoma well knows. But that will often enhance the ridging to the EAST as well. Will be interesting to watch how this plays out SOON!


One thing I've noticed is that the amplitude of the fronts seem to be less this year; that is, there seems to be more shortwaves than longwaves, and the overall pattern seems much less amplified and a lot more progressive than in recent years. This is based on analysis of 700-500 mb height anomalies for the last two months, and my own experience tracking the recent streaks of severe weather across the nation.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
TropicalAnalystwx13, 1900hurricane, TomTaylor would you still chase tornadoes given the chance?
I live 1500 miles from tornado alley but if I was given the chance, yes, I'd go on a chase. I'd try my best to avoid metro areas though. Last weekend was a great example of why you want to avoid that. Aside from the tragic deaths of Tim, Paul, and Carl, many other chasers (Levi included) found themselves stuck in traffic for hours, unsure if they could get out of the way of a tornado should one head there way. That is never a good situation to be in.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting TampaSpin:


Dang, we could not get rid of MR. Sensibility tho....Hey Scott. Glad to see you man. Your one of the best on here and glad to see ya.



good to see you also, what you been up to?
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
The Navy's 91L Invest is toast


I agree, and would not mind sharing that Coca Cola.. ;)
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Another storm chaser (amateur) found dead from El Reno tornado...

Link
11-11
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Absolutely. I've been watching the B/A High closely. The pattern is not looking favorable for fish storms, imho.





I'll just walk away now, okay?
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.
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Quoting scottsvb:
Nothing really changed in the 0z run of the GFS...still expecting this to get alittle better organized over the next day or 2. This does have a chance to become a Tropical Storm if the LLC forms closer to the convection on Thursday before crossing florida later that night into Friday morning. Dry air and shear is the main inhibitor. Once this does start moving NE Thurs into Thurs night..the shear will be lesser (somewhat) due to the system moving in line with the westerlys. If the LLC can get close enough to the convection..then this will be classified. This will Never get classified if the LLC is void of deep convection.


Dang, we could not get rid of MR. Sensibility tho....Hey Scott. Glad to see you man. Your one of the best on here and glad to see ya.
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Quoting nigel20:

Hey Baha!

I read an article in the Nassau Guardian about the recent flood...It is suggesting that the total damage could be in excess of $30 million.
Hey, nige... didn't realize u were still on... lol...

One company reported earlier [last week] that they already had 3.5 mil in house and car claims, and that they expected that only half their clientele likely to claim had submitted them as yet. For every householder here with insurance, there are on average 2 without. So yes, I can easily see claims exceeding 30 mil... especially when water damage to cars and accidents caused by heavy downpours and localized flooding are included.
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Mods, if I can have some license for a single post, please. TIA.

This is a Tropical Model.



This is a Surface Map.



And, this is a Water Vapor Loop. (Really don't need a shear chart with a WVL. WV tool is probably the best tool in the chest.




. . . focus! :) There will be plenty to track, debate soon enough. 91L won't be Andrea. :)


I lost you after tropical model.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah... I'm less concerned about the actual numbers than I am about the steering patterns [my usual song]. I'm not liking the variability of the high pressure edge being focused between here and LA... means we could get anything from a GA/SC/NC landfall, to across FL, to Gulf coast anywhere, depending on the high setup at the moment. I prefer the weakness set up round 60W, but that's not looking as likely this year.... :o/

Agreed.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8490
Quoting scottsvb:
Nothing really changed in the 0z run of the GFS...still expecting this to get alittle better organized over the next day or 2. This does have a chance to become a Tropical Storm if the LLC forms closer to the convection on Thursday before crossing florida later that night into Friday morning. Dry air and shear is the main inhibitor. Once this does start moving NE Thurs into Thurs night..the shear will be lesser (somewhat) due to the system moving in line with the westerlys. If the LLC can get close enough to the convection..then this will be classified. This will Never get classified if the LLC is void of deep convection.


+1

A logical and well thought out post.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah... I'm less concerned about the actual numbers than I am about the steering patterns [my usual song]. I'm not liking the variability of the high pressure edge being focused between here and LA... means we could get anything from a GA/SC/NC landfall, to across FL, to Gulf coast anywhere, depending on the high setup at the moment. I prefer the weakness set up round 60W, but that's not looking as likely this year.... :o/


Yep the Bermuda HIGH is a bit strong it seems. But, we have been seeing many fronts as Oklahoma well knows. But that will often enhance the ridging to the EAST as well. Will be interesting to watch how this plays out SOON!
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Hey Teddy.....NICE TO SEE YOU! Good to see some good friends back here again.


Yup -- looks like all of us are back once again (minus one or two people) for yet another season. The naming list sure looks familiar, can't believe we're sitting here talking about Andrea and Barry developing again. Next year will be even more unusual at least in that regard.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey Brother! I too have not been posting much except at my own site.....but I don't like the current overall shear picture and the Bermuda High is a bit strong pushing most waves further West before turning will be very bad.


Absolutely. I've been watching the B/A High closely. The pattern is not looking favorable for fish storms, imho.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Another storm chaser (amateur) found dead from El Reno tornado...

Link
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
Nothing really changed in the 0z run of the GFS...still expecting this to get alittle better organized over the next day or 2. This does have a chance to become a Tropical Storm if the LLC forms closer to the convection on Thursday before crossing florida later that night into Friday morning. Dry air and shear is the main inhibitor. Once this does start moving NE Thurs into Thurs night..the shear will be lesser (somewhat) due to the system moving in line with the westerlys. If the LLC can get close enough to the convection..then this will be classified. This will Never get classified if the LLC is void of deep convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all. Hey TSpin... good to see u in the blog.

On our latest invest: we continued with the overcast skies all day here, but there was little by way of actual rain [a blessing] for most of the day. Not sure what's coming with the next dmax... but definitely not expecting anything from this in terms of development before Thursday. The energy seems to be fading, but it doesn't seem to be consolidating as necessary to become an organized entity.

Hey Baha!

I read an article in the Nassau Guardian about the recent flood...It is suggesting that the total damage could be in excess of $30 million.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8490
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I hadn't even noticed TS is back, great to see more of the old crew coming back slowly.
Hey Teddy.....NICE TO SEE YOU! Good to see some good friends back here again.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

I saw you say Walmart hired you; what department?
I work as cashier.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Yes... I just want the game to end. I got work in morning.
11-10!!!!!
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Hello, TS, Baha, and you old weather geeks! :) Good to see you. And, while 91L isn't scaring anyone, I am quite concerned about the rest of the season.

Hope you've been well, and all things are good! :) Good to be in good company! I've lurked a bit for the past few years, but I'm thinking this year has the potential to be a doozie.
Yeah... I'm less concerned about the actual numbers than I am about the steering patterns [my usual song]. I'm not liking the variability of the high pressure edge being focused between here and LA... means we could get anything from a GA/SC/NC landfall, to across FL, to Gulf coast anywhere, depending on the high setup at the moment. I prefer the weakness set up round 60W, but that's not looking as likely this year.... :o/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Hello, TS, Baha, and you old weather geeks! :) Good to see you. And, while 91L isn't scaring anyone, I am quite concerned about the rest of the season.

Hope you've been well, and all things are good! :) Good to be in good company! I've lurked a bit for the past few years, but I'm thinking this year has the potential to be a doozie.


Hey Brother! I too have not been posting much except at my own site.....but I don't like the current overall shear picture and the Bermuda High is a bit strong pushing most waves further West before turning will be very bad.
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I hadn't even noticed TS is back, great to see more of the old crew coming back slowly.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580

Quoting Bluestorm5:
Yes... I just want the game to end. I got work in morning.
I saw you say Walmart hired you; what department?
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
91L isn't scaring anyone,

You obviously haven't spoken to JFV. :|
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Quoting bigwes6844:
blue are u seeing this!!! bases loaded again
Yes... I just want the game to end. I got work in morning.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
The CMC Model with is the most aggressive of the models with 91L shows very poor conditions with Shear with 91L.....kinda crazy it organizes 91L to the system it is showing before landfall in Florida. Here is the CMC Shear Forecast.... http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=20 13060312&field=850-200mb+Zonal+Shear&hour=Animatio n
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Hello, TS, Baha, and you old weather geeks! :) Good to see you. And, while 91L isn't scaring anyone, I am quite concerned about the rest of the season.

Hope you've been well, and all things are good! :) Good to be in good company! I've lurked a bit for the past few years, but I'm thinking this year has the potential to be a doozie.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting Bluestorm5:
and wxchaser97 too. And thanks! I feel honored to be called regular :)
blue are u seeing this!!! bases loaded again
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
A sheared mess.

tl;dr: It's June, guys. Please wait until August for the monsters. Now go back to checking the Tropical Weather Outlook, and dizzying yourself with infinite satellite loops. Just don't stare too long, or else the abyss might stare into you.

...Wait, wtf? Did I seriously just turn a tl;dr into something even longer than the pasted text? I'm slipping.
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Evening all. Hey TSpin... good to see u in the blog.

On our latest invest: we continued with the overcast skies all day here, but there was little by way of actual rain [a blessing] for most of the day. Not sure what's coming with the next dmax... but definitely not expecting anything from this in terms of development before Thursday. The energy seems to be fading, but it doesn't seem to be consolidating as necessary to become an organized entity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I have decided not to post climate articles in Dr. Rood's blog for the time being but place them solely in my own. Rood's blog at present is not a place for serious climate-science discussions.
Dr. Rood's blog is not the place I'll go to. Too many children posting there along with clever people that will rip apart my posts.

This baseball game is very, very good. Kudos to FAU for not giving up. Btw, I'm NC State fan for tournament, not UNC.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
Quoting stormchaser19:


But, is strange because the SST in the GOM is in 28-29 degrees Celsius
Lee was sub-tropical in the gulf for a period of time.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
A sheared mess.

Who knows, maybe it will develop. Odds are certainly against it, but we've all seen far worse develop in far more adverse conditions.
Jose 2011,Danny and Henri 2009 and the list could go on and on.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
853. FOREX
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I have decided not to post climate articles in Dr. Rood's blog for the time being but place them solely in my own. Rood's blog at present is not a place for serious climate-science discussions.


I grew up in Owings Mills. Now live in PC Beach.
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3 Run bomb for FAU!!
on a tropical note

It's going to be a wet day tomorrow in florida with this band ahead of the low (or a part of it?) being enhanced by the wet atmosphere.
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A sheared mess.

Who knows, maybe it will develop. Odds are certainly against it, but we've all seen far worse develop in far more adverse conditions.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Sorry, not buying into the development at this time. We have a small rotating surface low in a highly-sheared, dry-air environment. That's all. Upper level shear will have to relax in a major way for any dense overcast to develop. Not happening now.

Models are still transitioning seasonal data, and sorry, but the young guys with the puters glued to all the model-watching have missed the boat. Practice fundamentals, guys. Pull out a surface map, use visibles and a few charts - old school. The Navy's 91L Invest is toast, imo, and will NOT develop under these conditions. It's a mess at best. A rain dumper maybe for sFL. I hate to go out on a limb this early in the season, but I'll bet three of you a Coca-Cola I'm right. ;) Several things will have to change to acquire an Andrea name. Boaters, for now, imo, you're safe and sound, but having a plan is always wise. :)


I agree.....the GFS does not relax the Shear much at all over the next 5 days. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=20 1 3060318&field=850-200mb Zonal Shear&hour=Animation
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Quoting stormchaser19:


But, is strange because the SST in the GOM is in 28-29 degrees Celsius


Depends on mid and upper-level conditions too.
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I have decided not to post climate articles in Dr. Rood's blog for the time being but place them solely in my own. Rood's blog at present is not a place for serious climate-science discussions.
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Quoting stormchaser19:


But, is strange because the SST in the GOM is in 28-29 degrees Celsius
It is.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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