Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Skyepony:

It's much more unstable over that warm loop eddy in the Gulf of Mexico.

Skye, I'll buy that, but 91L has to get out there and hang around for a while for the eddy to have any effect. It's on an awful slow NE trek, so maybe that's what it will take to perk her up.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17309
Quoting BahaHurican:
And they are the mountain... Mohammed, and especially his wives, go to Walmart...

When I went out to CO about 10 years ago I called my trip the Walmart tour of the west... lol... I think I hit a Walmart in every major stop... from FL to TX to MT and back... lol

And when I got back I had to detrain at NOLA because Charley had ripped a hole in Amtrak's service line through FL...



Retail is still in it's infancy here in Jamaica, but we have our own little chain here in Jamaica...It's known as MegaMart. We have four of them with an average size of about 70 000sqft.
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(CNN) -- Hundreds of people were being evacuated from their homes in Missouri after a levee was breached Monday night.

Officials in St. Charles County near St. Louis activated warning sirens after the levee broke, a statement from the county said.

Earlier Monday, a bridge connecting West Alton, Missouri, and Alton, Illinois, was shutdown after a temporary flood barricade gave way.

Forecasters say there could be major flooding Tuesday. The Mississippi River at St. Louis was 10.1 feet above flood stage Monday night, according to the U.S. Geological Survey website.

Flood warnings and advisories were in effect from counties in northern Illinois down to Louisiana.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm out. See y'all tomorrow evening as I got to work for first time ever. Wish me luck!

Good luck, Blue. Just remember, the UPC code on all those giant cases of soft drinks is on the bottom, so you should have quite a pair of biceps by the end of the summer. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17309
Starting to see some deeper convection where I would estimate the low to be, off the NW tip of Cuba.

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Quoting KoritheMan:


After I continually made a fool of myself saying that the US was in for a dire season the last few years, I'm going to bite my tongue on predicting long-range patterns this time. :P

That being said, if things remain this way (accentuating that "if"), I anticipate a season closer to 2004/2005/2008, where the Gulf Coast takes the majority of the hits. I'm not sure why some people are saying this resembles an east coast year; to me it doesn't.

But hey... who knows.

I agree with you on this! 100%
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Agree. Sounds right to me, too. I think the B/A setup, neutral ENSO point to more westward-tracking systems, anywhere on the GoM can be a reasonable target, but depending on the troughing (sw's like you mentioned) we might accidentally see some ecoastFL, Georgia, SC/NC storms, but that's about as far I'd guess eastwards at the moment.
The problem for me with all this is that regardless of that variability factor [aka troughing] years like this can be bad ones for the Bahamas. FL storms are quite likely to pass through here first; even east coast storms are likely to track through the Bahamas first, especially ones staying well south. GoM storms may not, if they come out of the WCar, but quite a number of storms that impact the Gulf coast have already hit us.

Just about the entire SE coastline is open to landfalls if the AB high sets up the way we are thinking is possible. But I seriously don't see the islands escaping everything, either.

Fun times.
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Quoting ryang:
Was looking through the names for this year's season and Ingrid struck me as one that could be a big one.


Chantal and Dorian strike fear into me. Chantal in particular.
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I'm out. See y'all tomorrow evening as I got to work for first time ever. Wish me luck!
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Quoting sar2401:

There's a huge Walmart Supercenter located in Tegucigalpa. It's the only Walmart I've been in where the security guards were armed with automatic rifles and you get searched going in and coming out. Walmart also owns all the Dispensa Familiar stores, which are all over the country, but their guards usually just have shotguns and don't search everyone. Honduras can be a scary place at times.


I will try and remember this next time I complain about how bad my store is.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Nice to see old members back on here!



Sadly...
well hope u can sleep good now tar heels win 12-11! now back to weather!
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Quoting scottsvb:
It should go up to 40% at 8am or at 2pm at the latest. Not sure if recon will go out there on Tuesday still unless convection flares up in the morning near the LLC-tilt axis


:) They oughta save that fuel, likely going to need it later on.
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Quoting scottsvb:


subsidence

That's what I'm thinking also. Without enough convection to keep overturning the atmosphere, subsidence becomes inevitable. It looks to me like, any time a part of the blob tries to get something going, subsidence in the large blob kills it.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17309
Quoting ryang:
Was looking through the names for this year's season and Ingrid struck me as one that could be a big one.

Hey ryang!

What's the weather like in Barbados at this time?
It was pretty wet over the past week here in Jamaica.
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It should go up to 40% at 8am or at 2pm at the latest. Not sure if recon will go out there on Tuesday still unless convection flares up in the morning near the LLC-tilt axis
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Quoting Skyepony:


Dr Masters is using our average this year as the WU community forecast. It's amazing our average is in the ballpark with the others.
Truly is amazing!
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Quoting sar2401:
Here's what I don't get about 91L. I've looked at the shear charts, the WV loops, the satellite loops, even MLC's tropical model...well, the tropical model several times. :-) I'm seeing lots of clouds, lots of rain, even a maybe LLC trying to form. What I don't see is hardly any convection. Don't give me DMin vs DMax either. I've looked at the infrared and radar for the last 24 hours. There has not been any real increase in convection at any time of the day or night. The relative lack of convection indicates to me a relative lack of instability. I've seen tropical systems develop in the face of shear, dry air, even blocking highs, but I've never seen one develop without at least a respectable amount of convection. What am I missing here?

Andrea 07 was a very dry storm although she was Subtropical. The system has held convection though and that and an LLC all that is really needed. I think this storm if it forms would be subtropical.
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929. j2008
Quoting sar2401:

There's a huge Walmart Supercenter located in Tegucigalpa. It's the only Walmart I've been in where the security guards were armed with automatic rifles and you get searched going in and coming out. Walmart also owns all the Dispensa Familiar stores, which are all over the country, but their guards usually just have shotguns and don't search everyone. Honduras can be a scary place at times.
Dang, to me the idea of people with rifles outside a Walmart searching you is crazy.. I couldn't imagine anything like that.
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Quoting nigel20:

They have retail stores in Brazil, Canada,UK, Puerto Rico (US territory)...etc
And they are the mountain... Mohammed, and especially his wives, go to Walmart...

When I went out to CO about 10 years ago I called my trip the Walmart tour of the west... lol... I think I hit a Walmart in every major stop... from FL to TX to MT and back... lol

And when I got back I had to detrain at NOLA because Charley had ripped a hole in Amtrak's service line through FL...


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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...
AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL

OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN

Yeah, and it was also 30% this afternoon. I'm still wondering why there's not any any areas of concentrated or growing convection. 91L reminds me of a squall line the runs into an area of rain cooled atmosphere. There still may be a lot of rain, but the severe potential drops way down.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17309
Quoting ScottLincoln:
If anything good might come of Samaras' death and that of his team, it would be this:
"Storm chasers converged in the area over the weekend and have since found a couple of cameras, backpacks, cell phones and three of Samaras' probes, which had been turned on and was recording data, Nelson said."
So Tim's death was not for nothing. He got the data for what I'll say is one of the most violent tornado the radar ever recorded. This is what Tim would've wanted.
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925. ryang
Was looking through the names for this year's season and Ingrid struck me as one that could be a big one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


After I continually made a fool of myself saying that the US was in for a dire season the last few years, I'm going to bite my tongue on predicting long-range patterns this time. :P

That being said, if things remain this way (accentuating that "if"), I anticipate a season closer to 2004/2005/2008, where the Gulf Coast takes the majority of the hits. I'm not sure why some people are saying this resembles an east coast year; to me it doesn't.

But hey... who knows.


Agree. Sounds right to me, too. I think the B/A setup, neutral ENSO point to more westward-tracking systems, anywhere on the GoM can be a reasonable target, but depending on the troughing (sw's like you mentioned) we might accidentally see some ecoastFL, Georgia, SC/NC storms, but that's about as far I'd guess eastwards at the moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
923. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Bluestorm5:
For those who just came back for another season, enter your prediction here at Max's blog!

Max's Blog

We got 120 members' predictions so far!


Dr Masters is using our average this year as the WU community forecast. It's amazing our average is in the ballpark with the others.
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Here are the latest readings for the buoy farthest out from Naples in the Eastern Gulf. Pressures in that area are rising:

Station 42003
NDBC
Location: 26.044N 85.612W
Date: Tue, 4 Jun 2013 03:50:00 UTC

Winds: SE (130) at 15.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (155)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.92 in and rising
Air Temperature: 79.5 F
Water Temperature: 81.3 F
View Details - View Histo
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Quoting sar2401:
Here's what I don't get about 91L. I've looked at the shear charts, the WV loops, the satellite loops, even MLC's tropical model...well, the tropical model several times. :-) I'm seeing lots of clouds, lots of rain, even a maybe LLC trying to form. What I don't see is hardly any convection. Don't give me DMin vs DMax either. I've looked at the infrared and radar for the last 24 hours. There has not been any real increase in convection at any time of the day or night. The relative lack of convection indicates to me a relative lack of instability. I've seen tropical systems develop in the face of shear, dry air, even blocking highs, but I've never seen one develop without at least a respectable amount of convection. What am I missing here?


subsidence
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Yes, it's located in other countries including Central America.

Walmart locations

There's a huge Walmart Supercenter located in Tegucigalpa. It's the only Walmart I've been in where the security guards were armed with automatic rifles and you get searched going in and coming out. Walmart also owns all the Dispensa Familiar stores, which are all over the country, but their guards usually just have shotguns and don't search everyone. Honduras can be a scary place at times.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17309
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Kori is another good one. :) Expecting some good things from you this season, Kori. You've come a long ways. :) And, do tell, what are your thoughts on the pattern and the unfolding season. TIA.


After I continually made a fool of myself saying that the US was in for a dire season the last few years, I'm going to bite my tongue on predicting long-range patterns this time. :P

That being said, if things remain this way (accentuating that "if"), I anticipate a season closer to 2004/2005/2008, where the Gulf Coast takes the majority of the hits. I'm not sure why some people are saying this resembles an east coast year; to me it doesn't.

But hey... who knows.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
918. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting sar2401:
What am I missing here?

It's much more unstable over that warm loop eddy in the Gulf of Mexico.
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Wow... I found an article about the Samaras team on popstars.com...
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Quoting sar2401:
Here's what I don't get about 91L. I've looked at the shear charts, the WV loops, the satellite loops, even MLC's tropical model...well, the tropical model several times. :-) I'm seeing lots of clouds, lots of rain, even a maybe LLC trying to form. What I don't see is hardly any convection. Don't give me DMin vs DMax either. I've looked at the infrared and radar for the last 24 hours. There has not been any real increase in convection at any time of the day or night. The relative lack of convection indicates to me a relative lack of instability. I've seen tropical systems develop in the face of shear, dry air, even blocking highs, but I've never seen one develop without at least a respectable amount of convection. What am I missing here?


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...
AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL

OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN
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Quoting Drakoen:
Thanks for the warm welcome from some familiar faces! This season should be another interesting one.

I'm hoping that the Caribbean will be spared this season...most of the countries of the Caribbean are Currently suffering from high debt and low growth...A major storm would only exacerbate this problem.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's what I don't get about 91L. I've looked at the shear charts, the WV loops, the satellite loops, even MLC's tropical model...well, the tropical model several times. :-) I'm seeing lots of clouds, lots of rain, even a maybe LLC trying to form. What I don't see is hardly any convection. Don't give me DMin vs DMax either. I've looked at the infrared and radar for the last 24 hours. There has not been any real increase in convection at any time of the day or night. The relative lack of convection indicates to me a relative lack of instability. I've seen tropical systems develop in the face of shear, dry air, even blocking highs, but I've never seen one develop without at least a respectable amount of convection. What am I missing here?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17309
Quoting KoritheMan:






I'll just walk away now, okay?


Kori is another good one. :) Expecting some good things from you this season, Kori. You've come a long ways. :) And, do tell, what are your thoughts on the pattern and the unfolding season. TIA.
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If anything good might come of Samaras' death and that of his team, it would be this:
"Storm chasers converged in the area over the weekend and have since found a couple of cameras, backpacks, cell phones and three of Samaras' probes, which had been turned on and was recording data, Nelson said."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For those who just came back for another season, enter your prediction here at Max's blog!

Max's Blog

We got 120 members' predictions so far!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
Haha thanks is Walmart only for the US or they are in other countries?btw I believe 91L will stay at 30% it hasn`t organized imo it looks like a mess to me.
Yes, it's located in other countries including Central America.

Walmart locations
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Quoting allancalderini:
Haha thanks is Walmart only for the US or they are in other countries?btw I believe 91L will stay at 30% it hasn`t organized imo it looks like a mess to me.

They have retail stores in Brazil, Canada,UK, Puerto Rico (US territory)...etc
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Sup Drak
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Quoting stormchaser19:


Good Night guys!!!
I believe is my cue too I am going to school tomorrow.
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Good Night guys!!!
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Thanks for the warm welcome from some familiar faces! This season should be another interesting one.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Walmart is the single biggest retailer in the United States, yes; at least, last I heard. And frankly, I doubt that's going to change.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Walmart is basically in every American cities or towns. They're everywhere and they got everything you need for good prices.
Haha thanks is Walmart only for the US or they are in other countries?btw I believe 91L will stay at 30% it hasn`t organized imo it looks like a mess to me.
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Nice to see old members back on here!

Quoting bigwes6844:
blue u still watching!


Sadly...
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902. j2008
I feel like this is the reunion night of the blog.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Walmart is basically in every American cities or towns. They're everywhere and they got everything you need for good prices.
blue u still watching!
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Quoting allancalderini:
I believe Walmart is the biggest sale store in US right?I have all of you talk about it.I mean I saw a Walmart in the big love series in HBO.


Walmart is the single biggest retailer in the United States, yes; at least, last I heard. And frankly, I doubt that's going to change.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Tis the season


And, Drak is back! :) Good to see you, Drakoen! Looking forward to your analysis' this season.

If you don't know Drakoen, he's one of better ones here. Young man, and has it going on, too. :)
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There's a name we've not seen in a long time.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting Drakoen:
Tis the season


Good to see you again, Drak. Hope to have a lot of good moments forecasting with you again this year.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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