Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting traumaboyy:
We serve coffee during hurricane season....save the donuts for special occasions!! First Gomex system qualifies as special!!


How about the first Cat 5 in the GOM...
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We serve coffee during hurricane season....save the donuts for special occasions!! First Gomex system qualifies as special!!
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Night crew has doughnuts and coffee ready?

Sheesh...now you guys are gonna make me run to my local Tim Horton's with all this talk of coffee and donughts....

I can't figure out why I've got insomnia these days...
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Night crew has doughnuts and coffee ready?
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lol...would have had some doughnuts too but this tropical system snuck up on me!!
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pour me a cup please!
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Good morning night shift!! Coffee is ready!!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I need to go to sleep, but I am still absolutely wide awake... lol
I resemble that remark.
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For you late-nighters on here....just released another one of my daily & detailed Atlantic tropics discussion....

I've discussed in detail how 91-L has evolved in last 24 hours...and I think the best show for tropical cyclone formation is precisely 48 hours from now when the upper winds become most favorable. So if it doesn't develop by 48 hours from now...its game over for 91-L...
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Not sure if this has been posted. Another Tornado chaser killed, he was an amateur.

Oklahoma storms: Amateur storm chaser took photo of tornado that killed him

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Quoting FOREX:


are you referring to 91L?
Indeed, I adsum sublime, Andrea

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Quoting BahaHurican:
You realize that it is actually illegal for Bahamians to gamble in casinos in the Bahamas?

;o)

Well, of course, just like the legal drinking age is 18. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13315
Someone better put the Tampa shields up... This one could come a knocking on Tampa's door. Whatever it may become.
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980. FOREX
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
There's a lot of momentum building with this thing. I can't see much stopping it, if the winds aloft relax just a bit.

It's early in the season, and she's already spitting fire at us.





are you referring to 91L?
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There's a lot of momentum building with this thing. I can't see much stopping it, if the winds aloft relax just a bit.

It's early in the season, and she's already spitting fire at us.

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Key West update--just a few periods of light drizzle today, with one shower. Since it was cloudy, started out at Captain Tony's for a bloody mary, then to Island Dog for another bloody mary and conch chowder and, of course, an Island dog. Then up Duval to Rick's and a few libations with Deanna, best bartender on the island. Then up to the Green Parrot for beers (slow down a bit with light beers), then to Whiskey T's for a great duo and several more libations, oysters and pizza (after a stop at the Key West Gallery where they had some marvelous Bill Mack originals--going to have to bite the bullet on one of those). Now back at the condo. I guess a little rain ain't so bad when there's so much to do!!!

Tomorrow is our last day. Will be better for our livers if its sunny, but it doesn't look like that's going to be the case.

Just about have talked ourselves into another trip here for Fantasy Fest in October. All is good at Mile 0!!!!
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Good night fellow bloggers...I'm off to bed.
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Quoting ryang:


Dorian and Fernand
Well, that certainly is a wimpy replacement...
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Sing along....
Sun Sentinal Hurricane reminder...

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/videogallery/76100000 /

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Quoting sar2401:

Baha, that means it's time to head over to the Atlantis and hit the casino. ;-)
You realize that it is actually illegal for Bahamians to gamble in casinos in the Bahamas?

;o)
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I must emphasize again that it will not be that strong due to the wind shear and dry air it would have to fight. Main threat will be the flooding, and I have a feeling there is going to be quite a bit of it up and down the east coast by the time the weekend closes out.
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972. ryang
Quoting tropicfreak:


Those "I" storms mean trouble for us up here on the east coast, (i.e Isabel, Irene, among others, Irene in 05 was forecasted to slap us here in VA but the trough arrived earlier and was able to curve it out to sea further.

Long time no see old friend... how are ya!!


Hey! Long time indeed. I've been good. Looking forward to a long season on this blog.
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I think tomorrow and Wednesday will be crucial days to determine how the system responds to the decrease in wind shear. It's a big system, so it will likely be slow, but we will see!

I do think it will develop, we have lowering pressures, decreasing wind shear, the main issue is that it is fighting and will continue to fight a lot of dry air. Despite that I think it will be able to overcome that and form but at best I think a weak tropical storm. Either way she's going to be a big rainmaker.

But trust me, she won't be nearly as pretty as that tropical model that moonlightcowboy posted ;).
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970. ryang
Quoting BahaHurican:
What's the F storm? D and F can be bad for us...


Dorian and Fernand
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I need to go to sleep, but I am still absolutely wide awake... lol

Baha, that means it's time to head over to the Atlantis and hit the casino. ;-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13315
What's the F storm? D and F can be bad for us...
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Quoting Skyepony:


Dr Masters is using our average this year as the WU community forecast. It's amazing our average is in the ballpark with the others.

Seems perfectly reasonable to me. The herd usually follow the lead cows when it's time to go back to the barn for milking. :-)
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Quoting ryang:
Was looking through the names for this year's season and Ingrid struck me as one that could be a big one.


Those "I" storms mean trouble for us up here on the east coast, (i.e Isabel, Irene, among others, Irene in 05 was forecasted to slap us here in VA but the trough arrived earlier and was able to curve it out to sea further.

Long time no see old friend... how are ya!!
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Nite, folks. Have a good sleep. Wake me up when we have a "B" storm if this one ever is Andrea. And, if it is, it won't be too much more than a flooding event - dangerous in even that scenario.

Anyways, sure was good seeing several familiar faces! Long season ahead, look forward to reading your thoughts and discussion. Some good folks here! Thanks for your efforts!
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I need to go to sleep, but I am still absolutely wide awake... lol
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Baha, respect. In no way did I intend to seem omitting the Bahamas. I think you're smack in the firing line this year, man. Sounds crass, but sometimes I just think of the islands as an extension of the CONUS.
I wasn't so much whining about how nobody noticed us, as about how "all roads lead through the 700 islands in the sun".... lol

Every time somebody breathes a sigh of relief somewhere on the US coast, I'm hunkering down .... lol...

I wish some of the other bloggers would realize that by nature people are likely to consider impacts to their "home" area first. If there are two storms in the basin, I'm more likely to be paying [more] attention to the one I expect to impact me and mine. It's human nature.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
The problem for me with all this is that regardless of that variability factor [aka troughing] years like this can be bad ones for the Bahamas. FL storms are quite likely to pass through here first; even east coast storms are likely to track through the Bahamas first, especially ones staying well south. GoM storms may not, if they come out of the WCar, but quite a number of storms that impact the Gulf coast have already hit us.

Just about the entire SE coastline is open to landfalls if the AB high sets up the way we are thinking is possible. But I seriously don't see the islands escaping everything, either.

Fun times.


Baha, respect. In no way did I intend to seem omitting the Bahamas. I think you're smack in the firing line this year, man. Sounds crass, but sometimes I just think of the islands as an extension of the CONUS.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Oklahoma storms: Amateur storm chaser took photo of tornado that killed him

Richard Charles Henderson took a cellphone photo of the first tornado Friday and excitedly sent it to a friend. Minutes later, that tornado would kill him


It's kind of like skydiving. The first few seonds out of the plane, you think to yourself "this was a really bad idea"...but then your committed.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
927. sar2401 1:15 AM EDT on June 04, 2013

I was in Tegucigalpa about 15 years ago on a business trip with a friend who was friends with a few prominent politicians. Same experience; all the political guys had guards with machine guns outside their homes and a few came along when we all went to dinner. Also remember guys with guns and automatic rifles outside of certain stores and business establishments........Weird.

Yep, and Teguc has only gotten worse in those 15 years. I was there two years ago, and this has now spread throughout the country. We were in a small town called Catacamas and all the businesses had armed security guards. The guards at our hotel were armed with a strange mix of old Winchester Model 1897 riot guns, M-1 carbines, and brand new Uzi's. The US has done a good job running all the narco trafficers out of Mexico, so many of them now operate out of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize. You could tell who the narcos were in Catacamas ecasue they all had brand new GMC Yukons, always black with blacked out windows, and their security guards had the latest in weaponry. The wild west is still alive in Honduras.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13315
Oklahoma storms: Amateur storm chaser took photo of tornado that killed him

Richard Charles Henderson took a cellphone photo of the first tornado Friday and excitedly sent it to a friend. Minutes later, that tornado would kill him.

By Nolan Clay Modified: June 3, 2013 at 10:26 pm • Published: June 3, 2013

From his pickup, amateur storm chaser Richard Charles Henderson took a cellphone photo of the first tornado Friday and excitedly sent it to a friend.

Minutes later, that tornado would kill him.

“That was the end of his life right there,” said the friend, George “Sonny” Slay.

“He said, ‘I'm having fun,'” Slay recalled Monday. “He told me he was riding around … chasing the storms …. I said, ‘You better quit that!'

“And, then, I guess he was en route to the position that he got in because he said, ‘There goes Channel 9!' He said, ‘You might even see me on TV.' And, then a few seconds later, he said, ‘Oop, there's Channel 5!'”

Slay said the picture came in at 6:05 p.m. About 10 minutes later, Slay heard a loud popping noise over the phone.

Henderson cursed, and then asked Slay if he had heard the sound.

“I said, ‘Yeah, I heard it. What was it?' And he said, ‘It's debris hitting my pickup.' I said, ‘You better get your ass out of there.' Then the phone went dead.

Henderson, of Hinton, was one of at least 18 people who died because of Friday's tornadoes and storms. His body was found near El Reno.

...
Henderson was one of those who enjoyed watching storms.

“He didn't do it real often, but he did like to do it,” his mother, Dianna Henderson, said Monday.

Richard Henderson, 35, was a rancher and truck driver. His birthday would have been Thursday.

He was remembered Monday as a devoted father of two boys, 7 and 10. Services are Wednesday in Hinton.

His parents said he was thrown from the pickup.

“They said the inside of his pickup was just as clean as if it came off the showroom. They said everything was out of it … so it must have sucked him and everything else out of it,” his mother said.

“He never thought about anything like this happening.”

Contributing:

Staff Writer Andrew Knittle
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Kori whats up with the pattern for august!
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Quoting ryang:


Hey nigel!

Well the rainy pattern is now starting to begin here again with the arrival of tropical waves. But the rain is welcomed as relief from the hot days.

Same here...especially in Kingston.
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Where is stormchaser19 and his CMC posts tonight?

Well I checked anyways...and although the CMC still develops this... it's back off of its 988MB from the 12Z...now around 998-1000mbs and further south near Clearwater-Citrus county.

All the main models are in agreement of a landfall from around Pasco county- Levy County with a pressure of 1001-1005mbs. Timeframe is Thurs night into Friday morning. Question will be, does the LLC tighten up enough by getting closer to the convection to be classified. Hard to tell.
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953. ryang
Quoting nigel20:

Hey ryang!

What's the weather like in Barbados at this time?
It was pretty wet over the past week here in Jamaica.


Hey nigel!

Well the rainy pattern is now starting to begin here again with the arrival of tropical waves. But the rain is welcomed as relief from the hot days.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Starting to see some deeper convection where I would estimate the low to be, off the NW tip of Cuba.


OK, I'm staring real hard looking at that convection...maybe the key word is "deeper". :-)
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927. sar2401 1:15 AM EDT on June 04, 2013

I was in Tegucigalpa about 15 years ago on a business trip with a friend who was friends with a few prominent politicians. Same experience; all the political guys had guards with machine guns outside their homes and a few came along when we all went to dinner. Also remember guys with guns and automatic rifles outside of certain stores and business establishments........Weird.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Starting to see some deeper convection where I would estimate the low to be, off the NW tip of Cuba.

I expect we'll see 91L pick up some between now and dawn... if it's going to make anything more of itself the next 24 is the time to do it.

I'm out for the nonce... hoping I don't wake up to more torrential downpours in the a.m.....
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm out. See y'all tomorrow evening as I got to work for first time ever. Wish me luck!

Good luck and have a good night as well!
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Quoting Skyepony:

It's much more unstable over that warm loop eddy in the Gulf of Mexico.

Skye, I'll buy that, but 91L has to get out there and hang around for a while for the eddy to have any effect. It's on an awful slow NE trek, so maybe that's what it will take to perk her up.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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