Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting mikatnight:
Hurricane Damage Potential

These values indicate increases in damage potential ABOVE damage that occurs with a 75 mph hurricane.


Where did you get that and how was it calculated?

It follows the 8th power of the ratio of the wind speeds.

Here are some factors I thought of, but some of them do not follow a continuous curve.

Scientific unit "Power" is the 4th (mathematical)power impacting a stationary object, for the velocity of a fluid.

Next factor is stronger storm penetrates farther inland before dissipating. This might add another power of 1, but I doubt it would be a whole power, since weakening along the way would prevent that.

Next factor is breaking strength of objects, which is not a continuous curve. If roofs breaking strength is somewhere between 115mph and 130mph, then a category 3 would deal much, much more damage than a category 2, because there is a "step function" like behavior here. With the winds just slightly below the breaking strength, little or no damage is done. With the winds slightly above the breaking strength, wide spread damage is done. Large buildings tend to have breaking strengths somewhere around 180mph, so one could see how a 190mph storm would again do much more damage.

Anyway, I take issue with that chart, because if it were true, Camille or Labor Day 1935 would still reign as the most destructive hurricanes.


I'd like to see how it was calculated though, because a simply 8th mathematical power curve is inconsistent with the real world facts.
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Wow it was not like that yesterday they now go up to TS
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I am so mad,bye.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1292
91L still 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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Quoting intampa:
local mets in tampa dont seem to be concerned with any huge amounts of rain. the storm doesnt seem to be doing much. looks like no major rain as predicted just the normal afternoon 2-3 inch thunderstorms
It'll be little higher than that up to 5-10 inches.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
Quoting Torito:


Ima go with 30% or higher, maybe 40%.


1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...
AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

I say a 40-60% chance.Recon is still going out there.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1292
Quoting Torito:


lol sounds really dangerous.... There is like no security here in northern maryland.... shoot, there are only about 20 cop cars in my county...
Not really you get accustom.
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1040. Torito
I expect 0% develoment from 96W....

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1039. barbamz
BBC Update with video on the flooding catastrophy in Central Europe: 4 June 2013 Last updated at 10:44 GMT
Floods threaten Dresden as Prague river levels fall
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1038. Torito
Quoting allancalderini:
Oh yes in my city the despensa familiar is quite popular.Oh Honduras is quite a place in terms of security ;)I have been assault at least 3 times if you come to Honduras but is quite a nice place when you forget about security their beaches and biodiversity is unique.


lol sounds really dangerous.... There is like no security here in northern maryland.... shoot, there are only about 20 cop cars in my county...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1037. intampa
local mets in tampa dont seem to be concerned with any huge amounts of rain. the storm doesnt seem to be doing much. looks like no major rain as predicted just the normal afternoon 2-3 inch thunderstorms
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1036. Torito
Quoting Jwd41190:
30% still or higher at 0800 hrs EDT?


Ima go with 30% or higher, maybe 40%.


1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...
AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316

There's a huge Walmart Supercenter located in Tegucigalpa. It's the only Walmart I've been in where the security guards were armed with automatic rifles and you get searched going in and coming out. Walmart also owns all the Dispensa Familiar stores, which are all over the country, but their guards usually just have shotguns and don't search everyone. Honduras can be a scary place at times.Oh yes in my city the despensa familiar is quite popular.Oh Honduras is quite a place in terms of security ;)I have been assault at least 3 times if you come to Honduras but is quite a nice place when you forget about security their beaches and biodiversity is unique.
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1034. Torito
91L looking a bit better this morning...



Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1033. barbamz


Good morning everybody from Germany. As I've promised yesterday I've made a morning walk to the banks of Rhine River when high waters reached their crest (7 meters = 23 feet). Amazing to be suddenly at eye level with the swans. Mind, Mainz City isn't in danger of being flooded since it was fortified against the river in the 19th century. So we are very lucky compared to those poor people in the southeastern parts of our country and the adjacent countries.

The photo above is the first one of a series of photos (10). You can see, at some parts we are trying to catch up to the swamps of Florida, lol.
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30% still or higher at 0800 hrs EDT?
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1030. WxLogic
Good Morning
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1029. MahFL
Quoting tropicfreak:
... It's a big system....>


No it's not a big system, it's not even a system yet. The size you see is due to the massive amount of shear blowing the thunderstorms NE.
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Quoting Luisport:
12.30 Clock:
The situation in Halle an der Saale escalates: Hundreds forces fighting with the army in a dramatic race against time around the dikes. "The dams are very watered down," said Mayor Bernd Wiegand (independent) after a meeting of the crisis committee. "We currently expect that we can keep the dams., The question is how long will they last," Wiegand said. There was some seepage areas where water had quit.

12.27 Clock:
Not only residents and business people affected by the flooding, many farmers have to adapt to crop failures. Agriculture Minister Ilse Aigner wants to help. "We will not leave the affected farmers in the rain," said Aigner. Your house check "all possible ways".

12.08 Clock:
In Passau, the Danube by 21 clock of 12.89 meters yesterday reached its highest level in 500 years. Only in August 1501 there were, according to investigations by the Water Management Office, with about 13.00 to 13.20 meters as an even higher level.

Link
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has promised 'unbureaucratic' aid to Passau and other flood-hit areas. While water levels are slowly falling in the south, flooding is getting worse further north.
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
1027. FOREX
Quoting mcdsara1:
Al roker is so funny. He was doing a voice over showing Miami this morning, he said "Miami is getting dumped on right now" the shot was a partly cloudy morning with no rain. It struck me as kinda funny.


Never liked the guy. My Grandfather told me once that back in his day Al would at best make animals out of balloons.
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Al roker is so funny. He was doing a voice over showing Miami this morning, he said "Miami is getting dumped on right now" the shot was a partly cloudy morning with no rain. It struck me as kinda funny.
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key west radar shows quite a few showers moving into sw florida
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12.30 Clock:
The situation in Halle an der Saale escalates: Hundreds forces fighting with the army in a dramatic race against time around the dikes. "The dams are very watered down," said Mayor Bernd Wiegand (independent) after a meeting of the crisis committee. "We currently expect that we can keep the dams., The question is how long will they last," Wiegand said. There was some seepage areas where water had quit.

12.27 Clock:
Not only residents and business people affected by the flooding, many farmers have to adapt to crop failures. Agriculture Minister Ilse Aigner wants to help. "We will not leave the affected farmers in the rain," said Aigner. Your house check "all possible ways".

12.08 Clock:
In Passau, the Danube by 21 clock of 12.89 meters yesterday reached its highest level in 500 years. Only in August 1501 there were, according to investigations by the Water Management Office, with about 13.00 to 13.20 meters as an even higher level.

Link
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
1022. MahFL
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
.He was remembered Monday as a devoted father of two boys, 7 and 10...


Not so devoted as he put himself in harms way before his kids had grown up.
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1021. MahFL
Quoting sar2401:
.... What am I missing here?


Nothing, development if any will be SLOW, as in days. It's early June, conditions are barely marginal for development in the GOM.
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...
AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE ADJACENT WATERS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
THIS LOW WILL MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE HEADING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH IT SITTING TO THE WEST,
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THE PWATS ARE NEAR 2 INCHES AND WILL REMAIN
SO AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE RAIN COVERAGE IS LOWER IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING, IT SHOULD PICK
UP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IN COLLABORATION
WITH TAFB, HAVE UPPED POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
CATEGORICAL AS WAVES OF SHOWERS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE
RAIN ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF,
HOWEVER, ON THE TOTAL AMOUNTS OF QPF
, ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OFFSHORE ANYWAYS.
WHILE MODELS ARE ONLY GIVING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH OF
RAIN FOR LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
, THE FACT THAT THE MOISTURE IS
TROPICAL IN NATURE AND PWATS ARE HIGH, MEANS THAT MODELS COULD BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF QPF FOR TODAY. HPC IS SHOWING AROUND
A HALF INCH TODAY, AND AROUND AN INCH THROUGH TOMORROW. THE NEW 5
DAY TOTALS ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 2 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
.

NOW, LOOKING AT CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS, THEY ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE, IF
EXISTENT AT ALL
. CAPE IS SHOWING TO BE LESS THAN 100 JOULES, WHILE
THE CIN IS AROUND, OR EVEN OVER 100. THE GFS IS SHOWING LIS TO BE
SLIGHTLY STABLE, AT 1. MBE VELOCITIES ARE AROUND 15 KTS, MEANING,
STORMS WILL MOVE, ALTHOUGH NOT VERY FAST. THIS WILL LESSEN THE
CHANCE FOR FLOODING, BUT NOT REDUCE IT ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THE
POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP.
LAPSE RATE ARE AROUND 5 C/KM. BUT, AS A PRECAUTION, HAVE KEPT
JUST A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST, WHICH
WILL PROBABLY BE MORE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM, WITH JUST A FEW
STRIKES OF LIGHTENING.
------------------------------------------------- ------------------

So: Tuesday has gone from a thoroughly-drenching, frog-strangling, gullywashing floodmaker to between 0.25" and 0.5". Hardly the stuff of meteorological legend. Though it's been clouded over and as muggy as a rainforest here, Naples has received a whopping 0.99" since the start of this "event". Looks like we'll have to wait a while longer to make the history books... ;-)
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
It would appear that the lady has just blushed, but agrees to dance.








I find these random metaphors amusing.
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It would appear that the lady has just blushed, but agrees to dance.






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Quoting bigwes6844:
Kori whats up with the pattern for august!


Sorry, I logged off after making that blog.

As I said yesterday, we can't really tell if the current ominous landfall pattern is going to hold. As we saw with Isaac, the pattern can sometimes be fickle even out to just five days. The best advice I can give is to be prepared.
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1013. Gearsts
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Hurricane Damage Potential

These values indicate increases in damage potential ABOVE damage that occurs with a 75 mph hurricane.
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Tune out the melodramatic narrator and just listen to Mr. Goldenberg...
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Visit my blog for all the links!
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Tornado Chaser

It started out as a beautiful day,
Until a cloud got in my way.
I dunno, how'd I get in this fix?
Must be a better way to get my kicks.
Mamma said, you gotta hold on,
Don't let go,
Keep holdin' on to somethin'
Now, don't let go!
You know you got it comin' -
Tune in to the radio.
Crankin' up the stereo?
Just a tornado, baby.

A lotta work went into this place.
I always thought I had it made.
I dunno, how'd I get in this fix?
Must be a better way to get my kicks.
They say you gotta hold on,
Don't let go,
Keep holdin' on to somethin'
Now, don't let go!
You know you got it comin' -
Tune in to the radio.
Where you go you never know
In a tornado, baby.

It's easy to know what to take
When everything is all erased.
I dunno, how'd I get in this fix?
Must be a better way to get my kicks.
Oh, you know you gotta hold on,
Don't let go,
Keep holdin' on to somethin'
Now, don't let go!
You know you got it comin' -
Tune in to the radio.
Never be a bigger show
Than a tornado, baby.

It was such a lovely sunny day
Until a cloud turned it all to grey.
I dunno, how'd I get in this fix?
I don't know,
Just a tornado, baby.

MRH
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#975 -

G'mornin' folks. Good post Caicos, worth a repost...

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1000. Dakster
Just got a severe weather alert for OK and parts of TX. (thunderstorms)

Hope its just some rain and a little wind.
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IR - 7:15 AM

I don't think I've kissed the back of a woman's hand before, but I've seen how it's done on PBS.




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Do we shake hands with a lady, or do we kiss the back of hers?

Some would argue that we should make a fist.





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Quoting traumaboyy:
We serve coffee during hurricane season....save the donuts for special occasions!! First Gomex system qualifies as special!!


How about the first Cat 5 in the GOM...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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