Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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1146. flcanes
Quoting seminolesfan:


Phased Array Radar of the ElReno, OK supercell.

(This was mentioned yesterday...)

Did u see the pic that showed all the storm chasers locations?
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1145. FOREX
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Who is anotherwrong year? And where do they live? Love it when the experts don't post s pic with their profile!


He's on my ignore list since yesterday. Where do you live Panhandle Chuck??
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Phased Array Radar of the ElReno, OK supercell.

(This was mentioned yesterday...)
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
1143. flcanes
Quoting islander101010:
s floridians are going to doing the backstroke down alligator alley, heavy rains moving in thanks to keller

lol. That would be funny
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Who is anotherwrong year? And where do they live? Love it when the experts don't post s pic with their profile!
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1141. Mikla
For those that have not seen this, here is a site with some good training modules for satellite imagery.
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1137. FOREX
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm sorry but I just don't see how anything is going to come from this.I mean look how sheared it is and the dry air is awful as well.


I agree. If not for the dry air something might develop.
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15.26 Clock:
The floods on the Elbe is probably assume similar dramatic proportions as in 2002 according to estimates by the Saxon Ministry of the Interior. "We expect the water level of nine meters plus X", it said the Interior Ministry in Dresden. Are threatened as the state capital Dresden all localities along the stream. Population and authorities should be set up in a similar situation as in the flood eleven years ago.

Lies mehr über News, Video and news headlines at RTL News - RTL.de bei translate.googleusercontent.com
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I'm sorry but I just don't see how anything is going to come from this.I mean look how sheared it is and the dry air is awful as well.
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I like that westerly track :)
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Come on models trend west to north Ga not east to southeast GA....

going the wrong way
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Quoting barbamz:


Good morning everybody from Germany. As I've promised yesterday I've made a morning walk to the banks of Rhine River when high waters reached their crest (7 meters = 23 feet). Amazing to be suddenly at eye level with the swans. Mind, Mainz City isn't in danger of being flooded since it was fortified against the river in the 19th century. So we are very lucky compared to those poor people in the southeastern parts of our country and the adjacent countries.

The photo above is the first one of a series of photos (10). You can see, at some parts we are trying to catch up to the swamps of Florida, lol.
Yeah, the swan looks "amazed" too. lol
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Let me correct myself.

"power" is the 3rd power of the velocity of the fluid impacting an object, multiplied by density, and divided by 2. The must multiply by surface area, but since we are assuming the same targets in all cases, varying only wind speed, none of that matters. The division by 2 cancels, the density cancels, the surface area cancels, adn we are left only with velocity cubed.

Velocity cubed gives us 3 of those 8 powers.

Distance penetrated gives us probably only half of one power, not a full power.

Area/size of a storm is not correlated to wind speed, so it is detrimental to that chart.

After some thought, "breaking strength" is not another power, it is merely the point at which the product of all other powers overcomes "new" targets.

So really I can actually only explain about 3.5 to 4 powers through dimensional analysis.

The most relevant milestones would be:

Mobile home damaged but not destroyed
Mobile home destroyed
Slab house has some superficial damage
Slab house roof failure
Total failure of a conventional "stick" slab house
Total failure of a foam or other non-conventional slab house.
Levee over tops
Levee breaches
Partial failure of commercial buildings ( roof peel, windows, etc)
Total failure of a commercial building. (never seen it).


I think the issue is that you are primarily considering the energy of the system, which as you say has a third power relationship with wind speed. For now, if we ignore flooding effects and just consider wind damage then the damage should be considered as directly related to the fraction of buildings in a given area that would be heavily damaged by a given wind, and the value of that type of building. So if we consider that a baseline cat 1 would mainly cause heavy damage to mobile homes, which are relatively low cost and are a relatively small fraction of buildings. As the strength rises, the value of the range of types of building damaged or destroyed would increase, as would be the number of buildings and the value of each one (single family homes being the larger volume of housing and having a higher cost, factories contain a lot of expensive equipment etc), so even if we consider a linear increase in wind energy I would expect at least a 3rd power increase in damage, so that pushes us to at least a 6th power correlation to wind speed. Add increased time over land, storm surge etc, and 8th power doesn't look that unreasonable, even if at first site it looks far too high.
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Quoting mikatnight:
Hurricane Damage Potential

These values indicate increases in damage potential ABOVE damage that occurs with a 75 mph hurricane.
Isn't this scale somewhat subjective? After a certain point (windspeed), does it really matter?
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The GFS, CMC, and ECWMF have all shifted slightly south and come into agreement with a landfall near Cedar Key, FL or somewhere in the Big Bend Region.


That low level circulation near 25n and 89.5w may be getting ejected
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1127. FOREX
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
some beautiful deep blue skies and some cute little cumulus :)


Maybe some wind??
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Quoting FOREX:


What can we expect in the central Panhandle, like Panama City Beach from this disturbance?
some beautiful deep blue skies and some cute little cumulus :)
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1125. newt3d
Quoting RTSplayer:


Fine, but it stil has no dimensional analysis explanation.

I could only explain 5 or 6 powers through dimensional analysis. Where did the other 2 or 3 come from?


The issue here is that we're not measuring the force generated by wind, we're measuring the monetary cost of a storm with that wind speed.

Storms with higher wind speed, in addition to having more wind force, also:

1. Have more storm surge
2. Can impact a larger area (mainly due to taking longer to dissipate).

Additionally, cost generally goes up when infrastructure is destroyed. It's easy to repair one damaged house. It's much harder if you need to avoid downed power lines, clear debris, build a road to that house, and bring all the food, water, and sanitation with you that will be required while you repair that house.
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1124. IKE

Quoting sporteguy03:


Hi Ike, stick around this season a little. I miss when you posted the GFS model in the am.
I'll try. Busy working a lot.
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1123. IKE

Quoting FOREX:


Isn't Bastardi the CMC of Meteorologists?
lol
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1122. FOREX
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Very serious rain event on tap for the FL Penisula with a tornado potential as well. Tampa over to Orlando may squeeze out a foot of rain out of this.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
430 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE TROPICS WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD
THREAT...

TODAY...LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE
GULF...WHILE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS
NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE EAST OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD
CREEP UPWARD TO AS MUCH AS 2.25 INCHES TODAY. CONSIDERABLE MULTI-
LAYED CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LACK OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS
MORNING INTO MID DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S. THE RESULTANT INSTABILITY...AIDED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SPOKES OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY AND MESOSCALE LIFT
ALONG PROMINENT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROMOTE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ...70 POP AREAWIDE. WHILE SOME AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE
HEAVY RAIN...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT LIKELY TO HOLD OFF FOR A
WHILE LONGER. WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER DURING THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO.
MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT CONTINUING DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WED...CLOUDY/WET PERIOD EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXISTS AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS STREAMS A TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT EXTENSIVE MUTLI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE
DAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING WELL INTO THE
EVENING/NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP. WARM MINS DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW/HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER.

THU...WHILE THE GFS AND WPC GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS TO OUR WEST IN THE EASTERN GULF/FL WEST COAST...
GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT ARE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS
REGION THU AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THINK THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS 70-80 PERCENT THU AND 50-60 PERCENT THU
NIGHT. THINK A FLOOD WATCH WILL EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED FOR THIS
PERIOD. RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE BY EARLY
FRI...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. WARM MINS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW/HIGH DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER.

IN ADDITION...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW LIFTING N/NE ACROSS THE BIG BEND THU NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR AND PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT OVER EC FL AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.


FRI-SUN...DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO EXTEND TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SHOULD HELP EJECT WEAK SURFACE LOW
NORTHEAST ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD FRI/SAT. THIS SHOULD
SHUNT THE BAND OF DEEPEST MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH SOME RELATIVE DRYING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS
(ORLANDO NORTH). HOWEVER...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE JUST TO OUR SOUTH FROM THE YUCATAN TO THE SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED ACROSS CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER SOUTH FL...BRINGING THE
BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. SO ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD
TRANSITION BACK TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN...HEAVY RAINFALL CAN STILL BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.


What can we expect in the central Panhandle, like Panama City Beach from this disturbance?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1121. MahFL
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Very serious rain event on tap for the FL Penisula..


7 inches of rain for FL is not a very serious event. I've told you a thousand times, don't exaggerate.....
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3372
Quoting IKE:
2m
Low level circulation may be starting near 25 north and 89.5 west


Hi Ike, stick around this season a little. I miss when you posted the GFS model in the am.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Very serious rain event on tap for the FL Penisula with a tornado potential as well. Tampa over to Orlando may squeeze out a foot of rain out of this.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
430 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE TROPICS WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD
THREAT...

TODAY...LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE
GULF...WHILE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS
NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE EAST OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD
CREEP UPWARD TO AS MUCH AS 2.25 INCHES TODAY. CONSIDERABLE MULTI-
LAYED CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LACK OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS
MORNING INTO MID DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S. THE RESULTANT INSTABILITY...AIDED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SPOKES OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY AND MESOSCALE LIFT
ALONG PROMINENT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROMOTE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ...70 POP AREAWIDE. WHILE SOME AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE
HEAVY RAIN...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT LIKELY TO HOLD OFF FOR A
WHILE LONGER. WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER DURING THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO.
MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT CONTINUING DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WED...CLOUDY/WET PERIOD EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXISTS AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS STREAMS A TROPICAL AIRMASS INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT EXTENSIVE MUTLI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE
DAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING WELL INTO THE
EVENING/NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP. WARM MINS DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW/HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER.

THU...WHILE THE GFS AND WPC GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS TO OUR WEST IN THE EASTERN GULF/FL WEST COAST...
GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT ARE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS
REGION THU AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THINK THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS 70-80 PERCENT THU AND 50-60 PERCENT THU
NIGHT. THINK A FLOOD WATCH WILL EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED FOR THIS
PERIOD. RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE BY EARLY
FRI...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. WARM MINS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW/HIGH DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER.

IN ADDITION...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW LIFTING N/NE ACROSS THE BIG BEND THU NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR AND PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT OVER EC FL AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.


FRI-SUN...DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO EXTEND TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SHOULD HELP EJECT WEAK SURFACE LOW
NORTHEAST ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD FRI/SAT. THIS SHOULD
SHUNT THE BAND OF DEEPEST MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH SOME RELATIVE DRYING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS
(ORLANDO NORTH). HOWEVER...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE JUST TO OUR SOUTH FROM THE YUCATAN TO THE SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED ACROSS CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER SOUTH FL...BRINGING THE
BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. SO ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD
TRANSITION BACK TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN...HEAVY RAINFALL CAN STILL BE EXPECTED. MAX
TEMPS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2371
1118. MahFL
I see the spin Joe mentioned, it seems to be heading west though.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3372
Quoting Torito:


lol sounds really dangerous.... There is like no security here in northern maryland.... shoot, there are only about 20 cop cars in my county...
you don't need security w the second amendment. Use it.

As for tampa's rainfall potential, it still looks like the entire area will get between 5-9" which should be concerning to residents and local mets. Everyone knows s Tampa can't even handle a quick inch sometimes
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1115. FOREX
Quoting IKE:
2m
Low level circulation may be starting near 25 north and 89.5 west


Isn't Bastardi the CMC of Meteorologists?
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12z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2013060412, , BEST, 0, 243N, 893W, 25, 1009, DB
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14.31 Clock: dam has cracks in Niederaltaich


A dam above Niederaltaich (Bayern) takes the cracks. The police shouted "Deggendorfer newspaper" on Tuesday afternoon with Mayor Josef Thalhammer, and urgently asks that all residents leave the place.


14.16 Clock: Goats back in danger


In Thuringia, the situation worsened in the small village goats back. Reason: From the Bleilochtalsperre about 200 cubic meters of water per second would have to be drained, tells the District Office. The dam threatens to overflow otherwise.


The rising water level of the river Saale forcing the energy company Vattenfall as a tenant of the dam to this measure. Thus climb the risk of flooding of goats back. The place could only handle 120 cubic meters of water per second.
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#1102 barbamz, your first links ends on ""We are in a constant battle with nature that presents us again and again with new and unknown flooding scenarios," Schumann noted."

They need another flood, and a worse one by far. Let's pray for it. Only chance for Bangladesh.
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1111. IKE
2m
Low level circulation may be starting near 25 north and 89.5 west
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Quoting barbamz:


Largeeyes, I often think of you! Weatherwise you've really chosen a hard time to stay in Germany ... I'm somehow ashamed of our weather.


Well, as they told my colleague for the two years he was here before me, and as they have told me for the last two years, this isn't normal. Not quite sure I believe them, though. Last summer was quite dreadful, but this weekend looks warm and sunny, so fingers crossed.

I was riding my bike to work a couple weeks ago and had caught a few rays on the one warm day we had(a Sunday I think) and actually burnt the backs of my legs. However, it was so cold my fingers were numb on the ride. Pretty odd feeling to be sunburnt and that cold.

It's a good thing the beer is so yummy.
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1109. pcola57
Quoting mikatnight:
Well, somebody with some smarts should debate RTSplayer. I would, but I thought they were giving out trains...

Time for me to go to work doing electrical stuff. I leave you with this - and this is definitely NOT the time or place for such nonsense (and yet I do so anyway).
From the 2011 album, 'Paper Airplane' Allison Krauss and "the voice of George Clooney" (Dan Tyminski) perform one of the best lyrically written songs I've ever heard:



See Post# 1095 for educational and printable "Hurricaine Wheel " or Click HERE

It's on the bottom right on this NWS page..Click HERE
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Off to Work have a good day all!
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The current convective burst is baroclinic in nature; nice big ULL/Tutt cell nestled over the Gulf which is aiding the convection in the current location. Keep an eye on the Tutt as well to see if it moves away or stays close by.

Link
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1106. barbamz
Quoting largeeyes:
Just glad to have the sun out and things drying out here in Berlin, DE. This weather is crummy even by German standards.


Largeeyes, I often think of you! Weatherwise you've really chosen a hard time to stay in Germany ... I'm somehow ashamed of our weather.



And here is the link to the time lapse of Cancun on 91L this morning.
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1105. K8eCane

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THE SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS NOW
BEEN SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL
TRACK DIFFERENCES WHICH COULD HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ILM
AREA. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL MOVE THE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA
AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLUTION RANGE FROM LOW PASSING OFFSHORE
TO LOW PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA. WHILE BOTH TRACKS SUGGEST
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ON FRI. THE BIG DIFFERENCE WILL BE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. AN INLAND TRACK WOULD PUT THE ILM FORECAST AREA IN THE
FAVORED RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT. EVENT THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG WHEN IT REACHES THE AREA IT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPIN UP WEAK SHORT LIVED TORNADOES. AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TRACK. GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING POINTS TO A
FRI-FRI EVENING EVENT.

FROM WiLMINGTON NC NWS
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3076
Well, somebody with some smarts should debate RTSplayer. I would, but I thought they were giving out trains...

Time for me to go to work doing electrical stuff. I leave you with this - and this is definitely NOT the time or place for such nonsense (and yet I do so anyway).
From the 2011 album, 'Paper Airplane' Allison Krauss and "the voice of George Clooney" (Dan Tyminski) perform one of the best lyrically written songs I've ever heard:
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Just glad to have the sun out and things drying out here in Berlin, DE. This weather is crummy even by German standards.
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1102. barbamz
Complaints arise over Germany's flood preparedness
Deutsche Welle English, June 4th 2013

Video "Worst flood since the Middle Ages" and photo gallery on the main page.

Flood Disaster: Merkel Pledges Immediate Aid to Victims
Spiegel English with photo gallery, June 4th 2013

Some metereological hints: Those catastrophic rainfalls occur in central or southeastern Europe, when a cyclone with warm moisture is tracking from the Mediterranean Sea along the eastern side of the Alpes to the north, where it meets colder air (so called V(5)b-situation.
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Good Morning. Ahh, the wonders of Mother Nature. Just when we through it was over, as the main area of rain and squalls were approaching Florida, with little to no t-storm activity as noted last night, we have a nice convective flare-up further South off the tip of the Yucatan.

Not the best synoptic environment at present; still embedded in the Trof and lots of dry air pushing in from the West that could inhibit better organization.

Will have to wait until later this evening to see if it can keep up with the convective bursts.
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That wave by Africa is what ya'll talking about.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 991
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1098. Levi32
1091. If you're talking about actual "power" then your units are all wrong. They should be [(Force * distance) / time] = [energy / time]
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Welcome back, Largo. We got close to 4" of rain Saturday evening in S. Tampa. But, as it goes around here, I guess you got little in Largo.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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