Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting pensacolastorm:


Living on the water in NW FL I always root against storms forming...
Got Stilts?

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Definitly getting stronger accord. to this loop...

Link
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Quoting Torito:
It is currently moving NNW at 3kts (4MPH)...


thats the speed it went in the previous 6hrs..

Whenever they put up NNW at 3kts..it means it went from 6hrs ago to it's current spot at 3kts
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12z GEM(cmc) 36 hours
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Strong TS per GGEM.


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It is currently moving NNW at 3kts (4MPH)...
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See, it should just hang out near where it currently is before doing anything... Just might be a soaker for FL.


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GFS in it's 12Z run looks more reliable and right now we have a very good idea where the Low will come inland...between north of Clearwater-Big Bend..Pasco-Citrus county.

Question remains..will it become closed off. GFS keeps it almost a inverted trough with a small LLC of around 1002-1003mb. Most of the convection will be east of the LLC with winds around 35-45mph near the center and T-Storms. Scattered tornadoes will accompany this system regardless of this making it to tropical storm status on Thurs-Friday.

Dry air and shear will be the main problem for this system to get better organized. Still its 3.5-4 days out and things can change. If the LLC can get close to the main covection or imbedded with it before landfall..this has the potential to get to a moderate TS before landfall of around 998-1001mbs Thurs night...but if the convection and MLC stay away off to the east of the LLV...then a weaker 1004mb low it will stay or inside the inverted trough.

I give this a 40% chance of becoming a TS by Thurs as of right now.
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GGEM showing nearly 20" for the Tampa Bay area. Significant flood threat is coming to the FL Penisula.

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Its moving REALLY SLOWLY....

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Quoting pensacolastorm:


Living on the water in NW FL I always root against storms forming...
I don't blame you... you never know what the storms are gonna do.
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86. 7544
Quoting Torito:


Shouldnt affect you (too much),Unless if you are right on the coast.



looking at the front i believe if this does form it going to come in much further south than the models are showing imo
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Quoting Torito:


Shouldnt affect you (too much),Unless if you are right on the coast.

It will affect me because it's very large and it'll dump lot of rain in my area. NWS Raleigh is already giving us 50% chance 5 days from now.
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Models show it stuck in the CARRIB for a while before going anywhere..

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Running a 18 wave.... 18"

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Cancun live...


Link
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm rooting against 91L because I don't want couple of days of rainfall to ruin my graduation in NC. Sorry, folks.


Shouldnt affect you (too much),Unless if you are right on the coast.

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Quoting Torito:
Line of storms forming again over TX?

Just winds and hail. 2% threat of tornadoes today. Not that concerned for Oklahoma today.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm rooting against 91L because I don't want couple of days of rainfall to ruin my graduation in NC. Sorry, folks.


Living on the water in NW FL I always root against storms forming...
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Quoting Torito:


I see it too, but right now, it looks weak, even though it could get better later.

as I said just formed
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys looking at surface obs and low level cloud in Vis and RGB sat a surface circulation has formed NNW of Roatan Honduras and E-ENE of Half-Moon Cay Belize its elongated N-S


I see it too, but right now, it looks weak, even though it could get better later.
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I'm rooting against 91L because I don't want couple of days of rainfall to ruin my graduation in NC. Sorry, folks.
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Line of storms forming again over TX?

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hey guys looking at surface obs and low level cloud in Vis and RGB sat a surface circulation has formed NNW of Roatan Honduras and E-ENE of Half-Moon Cay Belize its elongated N-S
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Quoting Torito:



If shear continues to decrease and the SST warms up just a little more, it would have a very good shot at TS status.


I doubt the water will warm... Should cool actually
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Interesting wave

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Quoting SouthernIllinois:

I foresee widespread 5-10" totals for Southwest Florida up to just north of the Tampa Bay area. I wouldn't be surprised to see some local isolated totals exceed 13 or 14 inches anywhere in this zone.


Well i got .3 inches yesterday from the thunderstorms rolling through, not as much as i expected..
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
No matter how bad my day starts off,when I get on here yall always make it better.You guys and gals are the best. Let's gready for Hurricane Season 2013.



Any way we can help someone's day get better is a win!
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Quoting weatherh98:
maybe because if the convection on the southern side...



If shear continues to decrease and the SST warms up just a little more, it would have a very good shot at TS status.
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Quoting SouthernIllinois:
That is some INSANE reading for the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. First time I have seen that deep shade of red and purple (off the coast of Cuba) in a long time.



Geez, there is a reading of 2.47 on there..
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Quoting Torito:
NHC may decide to upgrade 91L to medium chance of development instead of low chance soon.
maybe because if the convection on the southern side...
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Quoting weatherh98:



He'd say...Pour me somethin' tall and strong
Make it a hurricane before I go insane
It's only half past twelve, but I don't care
It's five o'clock somewhere
No matter how bad my day starts off,when I get on here yall always make it better.You guys and gals are the best. Let's gready for Hurricane Season 2013.
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NHC may decide to upgrade 91L to medium chance of development instead of low chance soon.
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Quoting Torito:


I agree :P
me too.
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Quoting 7544:


thanks its growing at this hour


I agree :P

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58. 7544
Quoting Torito:


Yeah.


thanks its growing at this hour
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Quoting 7544:
is the red blob by the yucatan part of 91L thanks
Yes.
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Quoting weatherh98:



He'd say...Pour me somethin' tall and strong
Make it a hurricane before I go insane
It's only half past twelve, but I don't care
It's five o'clock somewhere


+1! Off to Captain Tony's we go.......
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Quoting 7544:
is the red blob by the yucatan part of 91L thanks


Yeah.
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From TWC:

The system over/near the southwest Gulf of Mexico is still very disorganized. There's just a weak, broad trough of low pressure from the Bay of Campeche to just north of the Yucatan, and while there has been a flareup of convection (thunderstorms) over the northwest Caribbean, that is detached from where the low pressure trough is and not where a tropical cyclone is most likely to form, if one were to eventually do so.

In regard to that, forecast models are still depicting the scenario of a not-very-strong, slowly-developing low pressure system over the southern/eastern Gulf this week, with model-to-model inconsistency in the details. The American GFS model forecasts have become even more goofy-looking, with multiple centers of circulation over the Gulf coming and going in various locations and never really coalescing.

Nevertheless, in the meantime heavy rain has already fallen on parts of southeast Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala, and has been flirting with western Cuba, and the rainfall aspect of this system will continue in that region. At least some of that moisture is expected to reach south and central Florida this week regardless of whether a tropical depression or storm forms. Current radar shows an area of rain with locally heavy thunderstorms embedded within in the Lower Keys.

Latest runs of the European model show a low pressure system then traveling all the way up the U.S. East Coast late in the week and next weekend, though it's unclear whether it would be "tropical" by that point. Plenty of time to monitor future model trends.
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Quoting jaxbeachbadger:
Darn--what a time to be chillin' in Key West. Looks like constant rain until our departure Wednesday. What would Jimmy Buffett say...?



He'd say...Pour me somethin' tall and strong
Make it a hurricane before I go insane
It's only half past twelve, but I don't care
It's five o'clock somewhere
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52. 7544
is the red blob by the yucatan part of 91L thanks
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Wow 5" plus in south Florida.


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Darn--what a time to be chillin' in Key West. Looks like constant rain until our departure Wednesday. What would Jimmy Buffett say...?
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FL in for some rain later today.


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Quoting stormchaser19:
GFS split the system again!!!




The gfs also keeps continuing to push the storm back. xD
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GFS split the system again!!!


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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