Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Saw something like this once.... Superstorm Sandy.


Not exactly the same, as grace went from hurricane to noreaster back to hurricane. Sandy went from hurricane to noreaster, and nothing else. :P
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First rain in about a month!!
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145. 7544
o>o i think the big red blob just connected with the spin p
-
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Quoting Torito:
Hurricane grace completley died out and then came back as a noreaster with tropical characteristics, AKA the perfect storm. I would live to see another one of these sometime, as it is so rare to see this happen.









Link
Saw something like this once.... Superstorm Sandy.
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Quoting doabarrelroll:
Yup, shear is decreasing...

Link
That would be correct shear was in the 30-40 knot range this morning, now it is down to the 20-30 knot range.

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shear
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Either the CMC is on some drugs or its showing a strong baroclinic low, something that you would mostly get in the winter time in the GOM.

That's exactly what's happening...well, not being on drugs, but ramping this low up because of a strong baroclinic bias in the model. This works really well for continental lows forming in the winter but doesn't work well at all for tropical or subtropical lows. The CMC is good at spotting areas where low pressure may develop in the tropics and, as such, it's a good early indicator of a potential area of interest. After that, it tends to over develop and speed up every tropical system. As long as you know the strengths and weaknesses of each model, all the major models together can give a pretty fair indication of what might happen to a system.
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Hurricane grace completley died out and then came back as a noreaster with tropical characteristics, AKA the perfect storm. I would love to see another one of these sometime, as it is so rare to see this happen.









Link
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IMO the best chance 91L has for development is off the East coast of Florida *if* it can get there.
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Quoting SouthernIllinois:

84 hours out on the 12Z GGEM. Really?!! Holy smokes.

That doesn't even support a hurricane look at the legend on the side and most I see is 40 knots.
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Quoting SouthernIllinois:

84 hours out on the 12Z GGEM. Really?!! Holy smokes.



CMC is overdone
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3098
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Either the CMC is on some drugs or its showing a strong baroclinic low, something that you would mostly get in the winter time in the GOM.


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Quoting MahFL:
According to this shear has dropped 10 kts to 20 kts.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/wi nds/wg8shr.GIF


The requested URL /real-time/atlantic/wi nds/wg8shr.GIF was not found on this server.

Delete space in adress. It works.
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This says it all and what the CMC is saying that whatever becomes 91L gets absorbed into the front upon making landfall as a strong subtropical storm.

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I say that 91L would be a 998-1002 mb low near landfall.
TS status - 50 to 60% chance during its lifetime
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Quoting Andrebrooks:
make a link.


Here. :P
That is the reason it isnt linked. :P

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Quoting stormchaser19:


The pressure in the GOM will drop to a TS values, but i think everything will depend of the characteristic of 91L at his moment!!!


Correct
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Quoting MahFL:
According to this shear has dropped 10 kts to 20 kts.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/wi nds/wg8shr.GIF
make a link.
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Quoting scottsvb:


Euro has it as a weak TS and the pressure from the GFS supports it along with 82dg SSTS in the GOM which is plenty warm enough for development. Only problem is shear and dry air. We still have 2 days or so before or if it does develop


The pressure in the GOM will drop to a TS values, but i think everything will depend of the characteristic of 91L at his moment!!!
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Quoting stormchaser19:
Unbelievable the GEM(cmc) is showing a Category 1 hurricane in the 12z run...




I call it CMC getting kicked out the window again

Quoting Andrebrooks:
Looks like the so called center is getting convection around it.

there is no LLC there are a few small spins around the area the only good LLC with surface obs and sat loop is E of Belize
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Quoting stormchaser19:
Unbelievable the GEM(cmc) is showing a Category 1 hurricane in the 12z run...



Either the CMC is on some drugs or its showing a strong baroclinic low, something that you would mostly get in the winter time in the GOM.
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Quoting scottsvb:


Euro has it as a weak TS and the pressure from the GFS supports it along with 82dg SSTS in the GOM which is plenty warm enough for development. Only problem is shear and dry air. We still have 2 days or so before or if it does develop
Like I said, "most part". Also, I agree with you. It'll be a struggle for 91L just to become a depression. However, it's not a surprise to see it in June as it's a classic storm for that month.
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120. MahFL
According to this shear has dropped 10 kts to 20 kts.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/wi nds/wg8shr.GIF
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3450
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Like I said in my blog, all models except for CMC is against the development for most part.


Euro has it as a weak TS and the pressure from the GFS supports it along with 82dg SSTS in the GOM which is plenty warm enough for development. Only problem is shear and dry air. We still have 2 days or so before or if it does develop
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Geesh!


Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2684
Powerhouse Fire

40% contained according to the video on this page (center).
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Quoting Patrap:


www.portlight.org

We will be live blogging from the conference at Shepherd Center in Atlanta on our Weather Underground blog. The live blog begins 6pm EDT Monday, 8am to 5pm Tuesday and 8am to 11am on Wednesday.


We will bring together the disability community with those who respond in times of disaster, to dispel false information and facilitate discussion of the real needs of the community with respect to evacuation, short-term sheltering and sheltering-in-place.

We will draw upon the recent, first-hand experience of people with disabilities, and disaster responders, to define the issues we face,

and launch a collaborative effort to address them proactively.

We will focus on simple, easily executable solutions for evacuation transportation and short-term shelter for all people with disabilities, addressing issues of mobility, communication, and cognition.

We will identify key points to address in planning guidelines and training materials, to be compiled after the conference and incorporated with our TRUE Shelter preparedness program.

Please check it out!

Monday, June 3, 2013

4:00pm 6:30pm Registration

6:30pm 6:40pm - Welcome, Overview & Conference Expectations, Paul Timmons, Executive Director, Portlight Strategies, Inc.

6:40pm 7:40pm- Dinner (Provided)

7:40pm 38:30pm- Dr. Jeff Masters, Chief Meteorologist, Weather Underground

Dr. Masters co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. He%u2019ll discuss current weather and environmental trends, and why we can expect to see more storms like Sandy


I have a disability Pat and I cant tell youand paul what a blessing it was just knowing your team was there during Irene. Everyone please support Portlight
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115. MahFL
Quoting VR46L:
Weeps for goes 13





Sat pics are now feeding into the GEOS viewer.

Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3450
Like I said in my blog, all models except for CMC is against the development for most part.
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7:40pm 38:30pm- Dr. Jeff Masters, Chief Meteorologist, Weather Underground



wow a 31 hour long presentation

; )

(Good work Pat... and thanks from all of us)

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CMC is about 10-12mbs too strong...not counting into affect the shear and dry air. Also it has it a TS by tomorrow evening....doubt it will be by then..maybe in 60-72hrs depending if it closes off a circulation (west and northwest wind)
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Quoting Torito:
Woah look at all that red!

Looks like the so called center is getting convection around it.
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Quoting stormchaser19:
Hmmmmm!!!!!!!!!!!WTF!!!!!!!!!
993mb wouldn't that support a strong TS.And looks like the Big Bend of Florida landfall.Course Im no met and my eyes are gettng worse.LOL
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evacuspots(n):

1. The official meeting places where anyone can go for a safe ride if New Orleans must call for a mandatory evacuation.

2. The exact same places residents will have a ride back to once the City is safe and re-entry begins.



Why Evacuspots:

One of the major improvements in the recovery of New Orleans post-Hurricane Katrina is the free, public evacuation option called City Assisted Evacuation (CAE). The CAE is citywide and can accommodate the over 30,000 residents who lack the ability to evacuate in advance of a Category 3 or higher hurricane.

EvacuSpots was proposed to meet the needs and concerns of New Orleans residents. EvacuSpots is a replicable solution to a critical weakness in our city's safety; the small, inconspicuous size of the signs marking the 17 evacuation pick-up points (below left) were identified as a crucial barrier to citizen awareness of and participation in the CAE.

The City's 17 evacuation points will now be clearly and consistently marked by identical 14-foot sculptures EvacuSpots.

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Unbelievable the GEM(cmc) is showing a Category 1 hurricane in the 12z run...



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SPIKE!!!





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www.portlight.org

We will be live blogging from the conference at Shepherd Center in Atlanta on our Weather Underground blog. The live blog begins 6pm EDT Monday, 8am to 5pm Tuesday and 8am to 11am on Wednesday.


We will bring together the disability community with those who respond in times of disaster, to dispel false information and facilitate discussion of the real needs of the community with respect to evacuation, short-term sheltering and sheltering-in-place.

We will draw upon the recent, first-hand experience of people with disabilities, and disaster responders, to define the issues we face, and launch a collaborative effort to address them proactively.

We will focus on simple, easily executable solutions for evacuation transportation and short-term shelter for all people with disabilities, addressing issues of mobility, communication, and cognition.

We will identify key points to address in planning guidelines and training materials, to be compiled after the conference and incorporated with our TRUE Shelter preparedness program.

Please check it out!

Monday, June 3, 2013

4:00pm 6:30pm Registration

6:30pm 6:40pm - Welcome, Overview & Conference Expectations, Paul Timmons, Executive Director, Portlight Strategies, Inc.

6:40pm 7:40pm- Dinner (Provided)

7:40pm 38:30pm- Dr. Jeff Masters, Chief Meteorologist, Weather Underground

Dr. Masters co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. He%u2019ll discuss current weather and environmental trends, and why we can expect to see more storms like Sandy
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Thanks for the new blog Doc!
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Hmmmmm!!!!!!!!!!!WTF!!!!!!!!!
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Woah look at all that red!

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Thanks for the update Doc,
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Quoting scottsvb:


thats the speed it went in the previous 6hrs..

Whenever they put up NNW at 3kts..it means it went from 6hrs ago to it's current spot at 3kts


Yeah, but this wasnt too long ago that this data was updated, it shouldnt be that different from an hour ago...
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99. 7544
Quoting Torito:
Definitley getting stronger accord. to this loop...

Link


agree it just might make it with this new blow up helping
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Quoting JNTenne:
Got Stilts?



Haha, i wouldnt live there, it looks too weak to support that house during a storm..
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Quoting pensacolastorm:


Living on the water in NW FL I always root against storms forming...
Got Stilts?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.