Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting seminolesfan:


I was gonna say "and watch at the tops get blown right off as it moves N"; But:


Then I looked at the 15z shear map^^^.

Still dropping and there is a little pocket of lower shear developing near the AOI.

May be something, maybe not...

We will all continue to watch, I'm sure. :)


Seems to be something going on in that area for sure.
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Quoting Abacosurf:
And then it's possible we see several mini vortices rotating around a larger gyre.

This is really just a huge mess.
I'm decreasing my chance of this system developing, down to 35%.
I have to agree with Cybrted and say the best chance of development with this system is off the east coast of Florida.
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THE RAIN IS COMING!

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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This convection moving up from the Cancun area could cause a dominate low to really take shape about 200 mile north of Cancun.



I was gonna say "and watch as the tops get blown right off as it moves N"; But:


Then I looked at the 15z shear map^^^.

Still dropping and there is a little pocket of lower shear developing near the AOI.

May be something, maybe not...

We will all continue to watch, I'm sure. :)
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2 years ago, I would be very excited to see 91L on satellite and thinking it'll be the next tropical storm or maybe even a hurricane. Today? I'm just looking at the satellite and thinking "Meh, this will get sheared as heck... not impressed". Weird how things changed in few years.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7903
Quoting Neapolitan:
Highest river level in 500 years, huh? Flooding in Budapest worse than the all-time record floods of 2002? Well, I wouldn't worry about it much; I'm sure it's all just a coincidence. Yep, that's all it is; just another coincidence...
danube at 12,80
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
Little to no change in air pressure (still rising) from this morning at the two buoys in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico East of South Florida. Only difference now is winds gusting to 13-15 knots as the disturbance approaches; to be expected as the t-storms inch closer to these locations.

Station 42003
NDBC
Location: 26.044N 85.612W
Date: Mon, 3 Jun 2013 16:50:00 UTC

Winds: S (170°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 13.6 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: S (170°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.93 in and rising
Air Temperature: 78.3 F
Water Temperature: 81.7 F

Station 42023
COMPS (University of South Florida)
Location: 26.064N 83.074W
Date: Mon, 3 Jun 2013 16:30:00 UTC

Winds: S (170°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
View Details - View History
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8798
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:


Today will be interesting...I've been watching this cold-topped convection since it blowed and now I'm satisfied with its movement towards 91L :)


It is looking like it is getting entrained into a more dominate low about 200 miles north of Cancun.


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Quoting Luisport:
latest news

"Situation deteriorated significantly in a few hours"

It's been worse than many had feared: South and East Germany sink into the flood - and the levels continue to rise in many places. Passau is almost completely under water, at noon, the Danube reached a level of about 12.50 meters - the highest level in 500 years. Now the situation in the East intensified.



Live ticker from RTL
Highest river level in 500 years, huh? Flooding in Budapest worse than the all-time record floods of 2002? Well, I wouldn't worry about it much; I'm sure it's all just a coincidence. Yep, that's all it is; just another coincidence...
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Rest in peace Tim Samarus as you will be greatly missed in the weather community. I hope this is a wake up call to all of these Storm Chasers who seem to be pushing the envelope as everybody wants to get the money shot while not respecting mother natures power. The Tornado Hunt crew is lucky to be alive as well as there vehicle was tossed 30 feet into the air and was rolled over several times.
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Quoting Luisport:
latest news

"Situation deteriorated significantly in a few hours"

It's been worse than many had feared: South and East Germany sink into the flood - and the levels continue to rise in many places. Passau is almost completely under water, at noon, the Danube reached a level of about 12.50 meters - the highest level in 500 years. Now the situation in the East intensified.



Live ticker from RTL


Actually it's even higher now (at 12,85m): all time record! A guy in a german weatherblog has visualized the situation with an impressive photo of the historic gauge in the old town (blog needs a bit time to load).

In plain numbers: Recordings since the year 1501 in the city of Passau

2013: 12,85 m
1501: 12,70 m
1595: 12,50 m
1954: 12,20 m
1787: 11,90 m
1899: 11,40 m
1862: 11,30 m
1895: 11,17 m
2002: 10,81 m
1920: 10,47 m
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Quoting seminolesfan:

Just the GEM being the GEM.

I propose a name change from Constantly Making Cyclones(CMC) to Give 'Em a Major(GEM)... :P


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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This convection moving up from the Cancun area could cause a dominate low to really take shape about 200 mile north of Cancun.



Today will be interesting...I've been watching this cold-topped convection since it blowed and now I'm satisfied with its movement towards 91L :)
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I will give the GEM a A- for persistence on our wannabe storm.

Just the GEM being the GEM.

I propose a name change from Constantly Making Cyclones(CMC) to Give 'Em a Major(GEM)... :P
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Quoting opal92nwf:
First rain in about a month!!
Send some a little further east....Holmes County is DRY!
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Quoting Patrap:
evacuspots(n):

1. The official meeting places where anyone can go for a safe ride if New Orleans must call for a mandatory evacuation.

2. The exact same places residents will have a ride back to once the City is safe and re-entry begins.



Why Evacuspots:

One of the major improvements in the recovery of New Orleans post-Hurricane Katrina is the free, public evacuation option called City Assisted Evacuation (CAE). The CAE is citywide and can accommodate the over 30,000 residents who lack the ability to evacuate in advance of a Category 3 or higher hurricane.

EvacuSpots was proposed to meet the needs and concerns of New Orleans residents. EvacuSpots is a replicable solution to a critical weakness in our city's safety; the small, inconspicuous size of the signs marking the 17 evacuation pick-up points (below left) were identified as a crucial barrier to citizen awareness of and participation in the CAE.

The City's 17 evacuation points will now be clearly and consistently marked by identical 14-foot sculptures EvacuSpots.



$13,333 each...$200,000 total...for 15 giant stick figures. I'm sorry, but there had to be a better use for $200,000 in a city with as many problems as New Orleans than 15 giant stick figures.

I also notice one of the requirements for those being evacuated states:
ABSOLUTELY NO: Alcohol, guns, knives, other weapons, illegal drugs, or prohibited substances.
How exactly is this going to be enforced by civilian volunteers helping to load people and luggage on busses? These are law enforcement issues and should not, and cannot, be handled by civilian volunteers. How many police officers does New Orleans propose to assign to these 15 "evacuspots", and what is the protocol for searching people and luggage before they get on the bus? What happens when an evacuee is found with an illegal weapon, drugs, or these other unspecified prohibited substances? Does New Orleans believe they can transport them all to jail while a major evacuation is in progress, or will they just be kicked loose to wander the streets and wait for the flood?

Someone needs to rethink this rule, and do it quickly. It's going to be impossible to enforce once TSHT(Hurricane)F.
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Quoting Luisport:
latest news

"Situation deteriorated significantly in a few hours"

It's been worse than many had feared: South and East Germany sink into the flood - and the levels continue to rise in many places. Passau is almost completely under water, at noon, the Danube reached a level of about 12.50 meters - the highest level in 500 years. Now the situation in the East intensified.



Live ticker from RTL
Link
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
Quoting TylerStanfield:

The one to the north will likely die off as it gets pulled into Florida, and this one near Cancun will take over.
And then it's possible we see several mini vortices rotating around a larger gyre.
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Quoting barbamz:
BBC weather video is covering 91L (with an enthusiastic grin on the face of weatherman Chris Fawkes at the end of the video, lol)


LOL I just had to watch it to see that... xD
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Even the GFS is forecasting 10" of rain plus near Tampa.

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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
2pm TWO

Figured. 8 pm TWO will likely be 30%. If it can start slowly consolidating and organize. Right now, all it is, is a sheared, elongated trough of low pressure with competing lows and the NHC is obviously not impressed.
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AL912013 - INVEST RAAMB Page
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This convection moving up from the Cancun area could cause a dominate low to really take shape about 200 mile north of Cancun.

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looks like a surface trough setting up in the e.gulf. in this form its capable of copious amounts of rain
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4334
BBC weather video is covering 91L (with an enthusiastic grin on the face of weatherman Chris Fawkes at the end of the video, lol)
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latest news

"Situation deteriorated significantly in a few hours"

It's been worse than many had feared: South and East Germany sink into the flood - and the levels continue to rise in many places. Passau is almost completely under water, at noon, the Danube reached a level of about 12.50 meters - the highest level in 500 years. Now the situation in the East intensified.



Live ticker from RTL
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
Quoting stormchaser19:
Unbelievable the GEM(cmc) is showing a Category 1 hurricane in the 12z run...



I will give the GEM a A- for persistence on our wannabe storm.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Competing lows.

The one to the north will likely die off as it gets pulled into Florida, and this one near Cancun will take over.
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IR/WV/Microwave RGB (IR [R], WV [G], MI89 [B])

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2pm TWO
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Competing lows.

Yup. Actually looks like the surface axis is strung out to the NE off of the western tip of Yucatan peninsula.
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Quoting Torito:
This thing is EXPLODING with energy!



I think it would be affected by daytime heating right now. Lots of energy tho. ( I could be wrong)
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

Oklahoma, Texas A&M or Colorado State. Texas Tech is an option too.
Neat! I got lucky on getting a small meteorology school like I wanted at UNC-Asheville. Asheville is also important meteorology town as they stores most weather data in the world at NCDC.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7903
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Thanks, Dr. Masters!



It's okay. Not many knew he made a new account so he can use his full name as a proof that he was active on this blog for future internships or jobs.

Doesn't seem worth it.
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06 03 10:50 am SSE 21.4 25.3 7.2 7 5.6 ESE 29.87 0.03 83.3 82.6 77.7 - - -
06 03 9:50 am SSE 19.4 25.3 6.9 6 5.5 ESE 29.86 0.04 83.1 82.6 77.7 - - -
06 03 8:50 am SE 21.4 23.3 6.9 7 5.5 ESE 29.85 0.06 82.9 82.4 76.3 - - -
06 03 7:50 am SE 19.4 25.3 6.9 6 5.5 SE 29.84 0.04 83.1 82.4 77.0 - - -
06 03 6:50 am SE 19.4 25.3 6.6 7 5.6 SE 29.82 0.01 82.9 82.4 77.7 - - -
06 03 5:50 am SE 17.5 21.4 6.2 7 5.5 ESE 29.79 -0.03 82.0 82.4 77.9 - - -
06 03 4:50 am SE 19.4 23.3 6.2 6 5.7 SE 29.80 -0.05 82.6 82.4 78.1 - - -
06 03 3:50 am SSE 15.5 19.4 6.2 8 5.8 ESE 29.81 -0.06 82.6 82.4 79.0 - - -
06 03 2:50 am SE 15.5 17.5 6.2 7 5.8 SE 29.82 -0.06 82.6 82.4 79.0 - - -
06 03 1:50 am SSE 13.6 15.5 5.6 8 6.0 E 29.85 -0.05 82.6 82.4 79.0 - - -
06 03 12:50 am E 5.8 9.7 6.2 8 6.2 ESE 29.87 -0.03 79.3 82.4 77.0 - - -
06 02 11:50 pm E 7.8 9.7 5.6 8 6.0 E 29.88 -0.02 77.9 82.2 76.1 - - -
06 02 10:50 pm NNE 1.9 3.9 - - - - 29.90 0.03 76.8 82.4 73.8

Buoy data off Belize and Honduras
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
What college are you aiming for and what major (meteorology I assume)?

Oklahoma, Texas A&M or Colorado State. Texas Tech is an option too.
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Competing lows.
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This thing is EXPLODING with energy!

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Quoting Torito:


Not exactly the same, as grace went from hurricane to noreaster back to hurricane. Sandy went from hurricane to noreaster, and nothing else. :P
Never mind, false statement.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7903
Quoting sar2401:

That's exactly what's happening...well, not being on drugs, but ramping this low up because of a strong baroclinic bias in the model. This works really well for continental lows forming in the winter but doesn't work well at all for tropical or subtropical lows. The CMC is good at spotting areas where low pressure may develop in the tropics and, as such, it's a good early indicator of a potential area of interest. After that, it tends to over develop and speed up every tropical system. As long as you know the strengths and weaknesses of each model, all the major models together can give a pretty fair indication of what might happen to a system.
Yeah pretty much it is best to get a general consensus by putting all the models together.
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Quoting 7544:
o>o i think the big red blob just connected with the spin p
-


I think you are correct. :P

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Hey guys looks like I will be getting soaked soon! E.CENT. FL so I will try to blog updates to you if we get anything significant. Today calling for 70% chance of t-storms and rest of the week its 50% and above.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Either the CMC is on some drugs or its showing a strong baroclinic low, something that you would mostly get in the winter time in the GOM.


The CMC/GEM has a well know bias towards overdoing intensity on tropical cyclones. It is the CANADIAN model and is primarily focused on identifying intensifying baroclinic low pressure systems at higher latitudes. It does not identify or weight properly the dynamics of tropical intensification and will generally 'bomb' any circulation with modest latent heat release IVOF...

This is not one of the reliable tropical models; Most notably if it is not in agreement with the more reliable GFS and Euro models.

(More often than not, the GEM will not verify on these tropical 'bombs'. Every dog finds a bone, eventually; But this does not mean an outlier GEM blow-up should get the attention that it does, IMO.)

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Saw something like this once.... Superstorm Sandy.


Not exactly the same, as grace went from hurricane to noreaster back to hurricane. Sandy went from hurricane to noreaster, and nothing else. :P
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.