Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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anyone else notice the other low later in the cmc

Yay rain(if it would verify)




the other low







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I think most of the rain will stick further north of Dade-Broward County. 2-4 inches of rain is a more likely output for those areas.
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245. VR46L
The Gulf doesn't look as dry as I thought it was

College DuPage

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244. 7544
we got a big red blob going thru the channel and its getting bigger by the hour lots of rain there for someone
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@Luisport:

Why the bold on EVERY post, buddy?

If you couldn't tell, that's not the normal routine for posters on this blog.

I can understand a few bolded posts for TOR Warnings or the such impending-disaster type posts, but I'm seeing you bold every post you make now. Any reason?

Just curious...
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I'm expecting parts of Florida to receive massive flooding.... Just look at the visible imagery and see that huuuugggeeee train of deep moisture coming straight into the central and south peninsula


We have had a significant amount of rain here over the past 7 days after being so dry. We had 4 inches of rain in this area on Saturday alone. We should with time begin seeing much more.

Look at the PWAT map, VERY high values are moving in:




The GFS is actually forecasting the PWAT to reach between 2.5 and 2.8 inches by Wednesday and Thursday over Central and South Florida. To put that into prospective, that's practically about as moist as you'll ever see.
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Quoting sar2401:

I give 91L a 40-60% chance of never even becoming a TD let alone a TS!

Seems as if the wishcasting has begun.


To everything there is a season....
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Quoting stormchaser19:


I give to 91L 40-60% of chance of becoming the first TS of the season!!!

I give 91L a 40-60% chance of never even becoming a TD let alone a TS!

Seems as if the wishcasting has begun.
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It may not look that impressive right now, but areas of weak low pressure always cycle. This isn't a well formed TC so we shouldn't expect there to always be a convective maximum around.
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nam says central gulf...so anywhere but there.

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Seeing more information on AmericanWx that DOW measured winds of 245 mph east of US-81 and 260 mph near I-40, at an elevation of roughly 400 feet. Definitely should've translated to EF5 winds at the surface.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 031730
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS
GENERALLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 941
Quoting RevInFL:
Link

This is a link to a story about another chaser hurt the other day.

This has been reported on several times in the last several days. He was a part of TWC crew with Mike Bettis. If you've seen pictures of their crushed SUV, it's amazing that anyone escaped at all.
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Has during the Danube in Passau level already reached a historic high, the residents of the Elbe is the most critical phase is yet to come: So the water levels along the river rose even more dramatically on Monday. In many places the highest alert level has been proclaimed as the capital of Saxony in Dresden, where the level had almost reached the seven-meter mark on Monday evening. But also in Saxony-Anhalt do you prepare before a heavy Elbflood
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
Noticed FSU released their season forecast

Excerpt:

On May 30, 2013, COAPS scientists released their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast. Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

This year’s forecast calls for a 70 percent probability of 12 to 17 named storms, including 5 to 10 hurricanes. The mean forecast is 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, and an average accumulated cyclone energy (a measure of the strength and duration of storms accumulated during the season) of 135. The forecast numbers are based on 50 individual seasonal atmospheric forecasts using sea surface temperatures predicted by a recently upgraded National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)climate model.
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Quoting K8eCane:
No one can say 91L wasn't monitored
scattered, smothered covered and over analyzed
Lets hope not underestimated tho
I'm expecting parts of Florida to receive massive flooding.... Just look at the visible imagery and see that huuuugggeeee train of deep moisture coming straight into the central and south peninsula
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No one can say 91L wasn't monitored
scattered, smothered covered and over analyzed
Lets hope not underestimated tho
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Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
ESL by LSU

GOES Ocean and Atmospheric Surveillance

The Earth Scan Lab receives atmospheric and infrared imagery of the Atlantic basin every thirty minutes from NOAA's GOES satellite. We generate a number of real-time atmospheric products consisting of different regions of interest to Louisiana, such as the Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Tropics.

GOES data is also used to produce night-time composite SST maps. Imagery for the Gulf of Mexico, Eastern Pacific, and tropical basin are available through our image archives.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
CSU's forecast: 18-9-4

My forecast: 18-9-2.
My forecast range is where AccuWeather is having their numbers as well... that's scary to see...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7453
Might be old ATCF line but eh...


AL, 91, 2013060312, , BEST, 0, 217N, 892W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7453
Looks like a very, very broad area of low pressure (mid-levels) north-northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula, well west of the convective activity. Typical sheared monsoonal gyre. I'd still put the odds of this ever developing at near 40%, probably a little lower.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
CSU's forecast: 18-9-4

My forecast: 18-9-2.

Mine: 17-9-3

Props to the WU average at 17-8-4, too!

Muahhhaaa!
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and as I expected still 20%
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Link

This is a link to a story about another chaser hurt the other day.
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CSU's forecast: 18-9-4

My forecast: 18-9-2.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


It also helps to read lots of research papers out there on tropical issues. Here is a nice link to about 30 research papers courtesy of Colorado State including papers from the 1990's through the past few years. This represents the backbone of tropics/hurricane related peer reviewed research from the past two decades.....Take your time.

Link
I bookmarked the page for future free time. I got to do chores around house this afternoon and I start my summer job tomorrow so I won't be on here as often as last few weeks.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7453
220. VR46L
GOES-East 4 km VIS/IR2 Floater 1 Image from RAMMB

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1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.


ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS
GENERALLY NORTHWARD.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Seems to be something going on in that area for sure.

Persistence is the operable word at this time.

Its a big hot tropical mess at this time. Convection will blow up and then wane. I doubt this will ramp right up into a depression.

But this is why we watch! Tropical cyclogenesis is fascinating!

The more you understand, the more you know you don't know!
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Link

Cool loop of the invest for anyone interested...
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I guess as I learn more about severe weather or tropical weather, the harder storms will be to impress me. I also know that it's just a regular June system and the real stuff is later in the year. I also learned to say "We'll see".


It also helps to read lots of research papers out there on tropical issues. Here is a nice link to about 30 research papers courtesy of Colorado State including papers from the 1990's through the past few years. This represents the backbone of tropics/hurricane related peer reviewed research from the past two decades.....Take your time.

Link
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 031746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N32W 5N37W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THERE IS ALSO A
CLEARING IN THE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST THAT IS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE WAVE. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH ALSO HAS A NE TO SW TILT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N60W 9N61W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. IT ALSO IS JUST WEST OF A LARGE AREA
OF DUST THAT EXTENDS AROUND THE EASTERNMOST WAVE AND CONTINUES
TO ABOUT 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 59W-62W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 58W-63W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 8N21W AND CONTINUES TO 8N30W. IT
PICKS UP ON THE WEST SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 5N40W 4N51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 12W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM NEAR 27N87W TO
19N92W...AS OF 1500 UTC. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 28N EAST OF 88W. AS THIS
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH....PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
COULD RECEIVE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN. NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FAIRLY DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT. DRY AIR ALOFT
IS SINKING INTO THIS AREA AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM ALABAMA TO NEAR 25N91W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO PROVIDING
A DIFFLUENT REGION OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS
ARE HIGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE SW GULF CENTERED NEAR
17N98W. LIGHT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE
TROUGH...EXCEPT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHERE SE FLOW
OF 15 KT IS PRESENT. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
IMPACTING MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SOUTHEAST
FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THIS AREA AND INTO
THE SE GULF. CURRENTLY...A LARGE BURST OF STRONG
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 84W-88W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 20N-23N
BETWEEN 80W-84W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...AND FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN
82W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY DRY IN
COMPARISON WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE IS
BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THE WAVE IS ALONG 61W AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UP TO 120 NM EAST OF THE AXIS.
ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED OVER
THE NW CORNER. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NE
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN UNDER VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD BRINGING
MOISTURE WITH IT.

HISPANIOLA...
HISPANIOLA IS FAIRLY DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND. AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE DAY CONTINUES. LOOKING
AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES
MOVING AT AROUND 15 KT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
LIKELY REACH THE ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND WILL
INCREASE THE CHANGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DESPITE BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERING THE WEST ATLC AROUND A
1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N54W...HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL
PRESENT. SOME MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARDS
THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS
HELPING SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF 28N WEST OF 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 65W IS ALSO
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN
70W-74W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 63W-70W. THE
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 41W. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER THE AREA ALONG 32N21W TO 23N38W SUPPORTING THE TAIL
END OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N37W TO 30N40W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1024
MB HIGH NEAR 37N23W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST
AFRICA NEAR 18N4W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING
AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLC AND CONTINUING TO
NEAR 58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
Quoting Torito:


Torito is still not there. xD


16-7-4 :P
You got to post on his blog so he can see it. Max will miss it if you post on here.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7453

Storm Relative 16km Geostationary Water Vapor Imagery

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
The wait is over

I HAVE PUBLISHED THE NEW HURRICANE SCORECARD...HEAD ON TO MY BLOG


Torito is still not there. xD


16-7-4 :P
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4203
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There is some dry air to contend with.

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
2 years ago, I would be very excited to see 91L on satellite and thinking it'll be the next tropical storm or maybe even a hurricane. Today? I'm just looking at the satellite and thinking "Meh, this will get sheared as heck... not impressed". Weird how things changed in few years.


I give to 91L 40-60% of chance of becoming the first TS of the season!!!
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We've had brief bursts of downpours off and on today on Longboat Key. Not enough to cause more than minor localized flooding on some side roads.

Just want to say thanks to Dr. Masters and all of the regular commenters here for your analysis and insights. This is my go-to place every year at the start of hurricane season and I'm feeling particuarly vulnerable this year, having relocated to a barrier island, so I'm going to be sticking close to all of you for the next few months!

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Quoting Torito:


Shouldnt affect you (too much),Unless if you are right on the coast.



Storm has not even formed yet sir.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


It's called Blog maturity..............
I guess as I learn more about severe weather or tropical weather, the harder storms will be to impress me. I also know that it's just a regular June system and the real stuff is later in the year. I also learned to say "We'll see".
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7453
The wait is over

I HAVE PUBLISHED THE NEW HURRICANE SCORECARD...HEAD ON TO MY BLOG
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Quoting sar2401:

This is a really terrible situation. Hundreds of years of history is being obliterated all over Germany, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. We've certainly had some bad situations here in the US over the last two weeks, but this flooding is really a disaster of epic proportions. Good luck to all of you who riding out these floods.


This is bad for a lot of people
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On the (I know, off topic) #198 update, Passau at 12.85 at 19:00 local time.
Link
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It is looking like it is getting entrained into a more dominate low about 200 miles north of Cancun.




Can you circle it on the latest still frame? I can't find it :(
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Quoting Torito:
THE RAIN IS COMING!



coming it's already here across SW FL.

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Quoting Luisport:
Link

This is a really terrible situation. Hundreds of years of history is being obliterated all over Germany, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. We've certainly had some bad situations here in the US over the last two weeks, but this flooding is really a disaster of epic proportions. Good luck to all of you who riding out these floods.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
2 years ago, I would be very excited to see 91L on satellite and thinking it'll be the next tropical storm or maybe even a hurricane. Today? I'm just looking at the satellite and thinking "Meh, this will get sheared as heck... not impressed". Weird how things changed in few years.


It's called Blog induced maturity..............
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#170 Luisport, Passau went to 12.55 and at that point the instrument flooded out. They set up another and at 17:00 local time got 12.80.
The record from the year 1501 was 12.22m.

The wave on the Donau now moving into Austria. In Holland the wave on the river Rhine is going to bust all May/June records (but wintertime has seen far worse floods over the years, with a quarter million evacs in 1995).

Following Invest 91L meantime thanks to all the comments here. Not sure if it will ever earn a name, but given time inside the Caribbean, maybe.
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Quoting seminolesfan:


I was gonna say "and watch at the tops get blown right off as it moves N"; But:


Then I looked at the 15z shear map^^^.

Still dropping and there is a little pocket of lower shear developing near the AOI.

May be something, maybe not...

We will all continue to watch, I'm sure. :)


Seems to be something going on in that area for sure.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.