Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sar2401:

I'm just north of that nice 1.9" PWAT circle in SE Alabama.

The PWAT values have been at or nearly at that level for three days.

My total rainfall for the past three days has ben .08"...yes, that's eight-hundreths.

I've learned to never to count my PWAT's until they hatch...or at least until we get a heavy shower. :-)


Very true, just because the atmosphere is very mosit doesn't mean you'll get soaked. However, there are numerous reasons why rainfall will likely be heavy around here the next several days. Not just because of very high moisture, but because a slow moving tropical low will be moving through and upper divergence will be on the increase as well.
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Quoting mikatnight:
Ok, that was weird.

I posted the above comment, then realized something was really wrong:

My post showed up as #1249 at 6:47 PM GMT on June 3rd.

The post before that was #1248 by Robj144 at 1:50 PM GMT on June 3rd.

The post before that was #1247 by Jedkins01 at 8:14 PM GMT on May 31st!

Your post is #280 on my screen. Sounds like it's time to clear you cache and restart your computer.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16967
12Z Euro is showing a strong TS coming ashore across the FL Big Bend.

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#292 -

Excellent response! Thx
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
ok experts whats the deal this hour with 91l where is it going now.... as i see the models no longer point to central florida and i thought that wouldnt happen anyways as of yesterday when they all pointed at central florida so whats this hours track?


Don't worry, you will get lots of rain and windy conditions. Look at weather as an adventure, not something one gets disappointed over with very little change in predictions. Enjoy all types of weather, don't get yourself upset if one prediction does not come to fruition. Remember, we can't "control" the weather, and when one gets upset over something they cannot control, that person deprives themselves of happiness.
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Quoting mikatnight:
As further evidence that human beings are woefully inept at predicting the weather, the NWS has for the second day in a row, blown their forecast for my area. Admittedly, the day is not yet done, but no one in my forecast area has received so much as a drop of rain, and the radar doesn't seem to reflect much enthusiasm for a high probability. Predicting an 80% and 70% chance of precipitation for yesterday and today, one would expect to see a bit more activity on radar. I wonder if anyone has done any studies to see just how much better we are at predicting the weather than we were 20, or even a hundred years ago?

Actually, with all my whining about not getting rain, the NWS is really a lot better at 24-72 hour forecasts than they were even 20 years ago. The issue is with using percentage figures. Anyone who's taken Stat 101 knows the real odds of getting rain from unorganized showers is really 0% or 100%. Back in the "old" days, the Weather Bureau (am I the only one who remembers that name?) would say "a slight chance", "a good chance", or "a likely chance" of showers. Computers are bad at handling words instead of numbers, so they started to substitute percentage in place of words. Trouble is, the average person hears "a good chance" and translates that into "hey, maybe I should take an umbrella". When they hear a 60% chance, that indicates some kind of precision the NWS doesn't really have for their house, but it seems like they should. I always back translate the numbers. My forecast for today is a 50% chance of showers. That means there's an equal chance I won't get any showers and, so far, that other 50% is right, no showers. If the forecast is for an 80% chance of showers, then I make sure the car windows are closed. Still, it comes down to that 0% or 100% real probability, and I don't think the average non-weather nerd gets that.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16967
Quoting Patrap:
Published on Jun 3, 2013

New video couples interviews with two experts -- Rutgers' Jennifer Francis and Weather Underground's Jeff Masters -- to explore the 'Why?' of two years of mirror images of weather across North America.



Thanks for posting this Patrap! I found it to be interesting and easy to understand for those of us who don't have a meteorological degree.
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Quoting Tazmanian:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031421
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1020 AM EDT MON 03 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA---GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST
C. 04/1730Z
D. 24.0N 88.5W
E. 04/1845Z TO 04/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION
NEAR 24.5N 88.5W AT 05/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP


No recon today.
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Ok, that was weird.

I posted the above comment, then realized something was really wrong:

My post showed up as #1249 at 6:47 PM GMT on June 3rd.

The post before that was #1248 by Robj144 at 1:50 PM GMT on June 3rd.

The post before that was #1247 by Jedkins01 at 8:14 PM GMT on May 31st!
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031421
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1020 AM EDT MON 03 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA---GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST
C. 04/1730Z
D. 24.0N 88.5W
E. 04/1845Z TO 04/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION
NEAR 24.5N 88.5W AT 05/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
anyone else notice the other low later in the cmc

Yay rain(if it would verify)




the other low








That's the tropical wave over near 35W.

GFS showed something like that the past few days as well.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Link for that one so I can bookmark it as well, please?



Link
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NHC will probably go to 30% at 8pm or late tonight at 2am due to the 48hr notice of a TS developing unless they are 90% sure nothing will happen before then.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Ok, I might have misunderstood what was going on last night in this conversation. Typically people add up the inbound peak and the outbound peak for a wind speed, thus confusing shear with velocity. I have since looked at the radar data once more, even trying to roughly estimate velocities by manually dealiasing pixels where GR2Analyst failed.

I believe I have seen something interesting that might be consistent with what you were saying, if what you were saying was that the radar (and the DOWs) estimated ~290kt velocities, and NOT 290kts of shear. If either of you have more information on this and can help me clarify, please contact me directly through PM or email as soon as you can.
What is the point of looking at shear in the first place? Shouldn't we just look at the maximum velocity (whether it be inbound or outbound) to get the best idea of the tornadoes maximum winds? I know this isn't measuring surface winds, nor is item measuring winds at one specific spot, and it may even be measuring larger, slower moving debris as opposed to hydrometeors but it seems that the vmax would be most important and shear would be rather unnecessary for trying to estate wind speeds.
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Quoting anotherwrongyear:
yesterday everyone was saying 10-20 inches of rain over central and south florida...... i said yesterday i dont see that happeneing so which is it am i right or are the people from yesterday right?

Your use of 'everyone' is a hyperbole.

I have, personally, tried to speak with you about the models and such.

Your posts have little substance other than an effort to cause drama.

(Wonder if this may be a JFV sighting?)

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Published on Jun 3, 2013

New video couples interviews with two experts -- Rutgers' Jennifer Francis and Weather Underground's Jeff Masters -- to explore the 'Why?' of two years of mirror images of weather across North America.

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Quoting scottsvb:
12Z ECMWF is out and is still inline with the GFS with landfall around Citrus-Levy County late thur night or Friday morning...pressure around 1002mbs.
Debby all over again?



Hurricane Gordon?



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As further evidence that human beings are woefully inept at predicting the weather, the NWS has for the second day in a row, blown their forecast for my area. Admittedly, the day is not yet done, but no one in my forecast area has received so much as a drop of rain, and the radar doesn't seem to reflect much enthusiasm for a high probability. Predicting an 80% and 70% chance of precipitation for yesterday and today, one would expect to see a bit more activity on radar. I wonder if anyone has done any studies to see just how much better we are at predicting the weather than we were 20, or even a hundred years ago?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
yesterday everyone was saying 10-20 inches of rain over central and south florida...... i said yesterday i dont see that happeneing so which is it am i right or are the people from yesterday right?



check your local NWS statement
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Quoting anotherTROLLyear:
blah blah blah


Your true colors are showing...
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Quoting anotherwrongyear:
ok experts whats the deal this hour with 91l where is it going now.... as i see the models no longer point to central florida and i thought that wouldnt happen anyways as of yesterday when they all pointed at central florida so whats this hours track?


I cannot teach him, the boy has no patience..
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Quoting Luisport:
ok i understand...


Please keep posting!

I love your focus on solar weather patterns/features and think it is a great addition to our other topics and one I don't see posted on frequently.

Don't take my other comment too harshly, buddy! :)
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Quoting Jedkins01:


We have had a significant amount of rain here over the past 7 days after being so dry. We had 4 inches of rain in this area on Saturday alone. We should with time begin seeing much more.

Look at the PWAT map, VERY high values are moving in:




The GFS is actually forecasting the PWAT to reach between 2.5 and 2.8 inches by Wednesday and Thursday over Central and South Florida. To put that into prospective, that's practically about as moist as you'll ever see.

I'm just north of that nice 1.9" PWAT circle in SE Alabama.

The PWAT values have been at or nearly at that level for three days.

My total rainfall for the past three days has ben .08"...yes, that's eight-hundreths.

I've learned to never to count my PWAT's until they hatch...or at least until we get a heavy shower. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16967
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Final Rainfall Tallies for Southern Illinois From Last Weekend's Big Rain Event:



You guys got a soaking, I would imagine that's well above normal!
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20.33 Clock:
Saxony-Anhalt's state capital Magdeburg depends on an extreme flood of the Elbe. As of Tuesday morning, 6.00 clock applies the disaster, said the city. Only in the afternoon Pretziener the military had been opened to protect the city and the neighboring Beautiful Beck from flooding - by the waters of the Elbe is diverted into a canal. The city anticipates that the water level of the Elbe rises dramatically in the coming days. Dikes should therefore be reinforced with sandbags.


Link
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Quoting seminolesfan:


I'm not the blog police or even a mod...

I believe that everyone that posts wants to think that their content is important, or even more important, relative to the other posts.

That's not really the point though. It is about aggregation of information that makes this blog the important resource that it is. It is up to the reader to decide what is important to them.

(I'm really just being selfish, honestly. I feel that the random bolded posts interrupt the readability of the content, FWIW.)
ok i understand...
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Quoting sar2401:

The money for the giant stick figures has already been blown, so there's not much we can do about that. As a former emergency manager, I'm more concerned about the rules for people getting on the busses. In addition to the law enforcement issues I pointed out in my last post, they also want every pet that gets on to have all his vaccination records and medications. How many people will have their pet's vaccination records ready to hand if they have only a few hours to evacuate? Who's going to check if each pet has their medication, and how will anyone even know what medications a pet is supposed to be on? If the pet doesn't have the right records or meds, what do they do - throw it off the bus? These are the kind of rules made up by bureaucrats sitting around some office that have never been involved in running the chaos that's part of every major disaster in their lives.


You've expressed several very strong opinions about emergency preparedness efforts in NO. Your opinions seem to be based in part on direct experience. I surely hope you are active with a group or government agency so that you can provide your input to actual decision-makers (some decision-makers may read this blog, but clearly you'd be more effectual communicating with them directly).
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ECMWF







almost splits like GFS placed between GFS and CMC
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
The models' rainfall outputs for Florida get better and better each run! I don't think this system will be a "bust" for Florida in anyway. This is Fay 2, but for the west coast instead of the east


This low pressure system will be moving very slow and atomspheric moisture will be insanely high. I doubt we'll be seeing 30 inch totals around here like with Fay. However. A large region getting more than 10 inches can't be ruled out like with Debby. However, actually predicting that much rain is a bit risky, but the potential is indeed there.

When the rainfall amounts will really pile up is if we can get a large deep convective complex move onshore or repeating bands. The amount of moisture in the air means rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches an hour will be common with just run of the mill showers and stronger thunderstorms will unleash rainfall even much heavier. Similar to what we had around the Tampa Bay area on Saturday night but on a larger coverage area.
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Quoting Luisport:
well i bold what i think is very important to people pay attention... but i can stop to use it...


I'm not the blog police or even a mod...

I believe that everyone that posts wants to think that their content is important, or even more important, relative to the other posts.

That's not really the point though. It is about aggregation of information that makes this blog the important resource that it is. It is up to the reader to decide what is important to them.

(I'm really just being selfish, honestly. I feel that the random bolded posts interrupt the readability of the content, FWIW.)
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
looks like the free raleighwx.americanwx is gone....no more ecmwf from there.


yeah that sucks
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
can't give a 40-60... just say your 50% meaning, you don't know cause it could go eigther way. :)
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
looks like the free raleighwx.americanwx is gone....no more ecmwf from there.
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12Z ECMWF is out and is still inline with the GFS with landfall around Citrus-Levy County late thur night or Friday morning...pressure around 1002mbs.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
Quoting sar2401:

I give 91L a 40-60% chance of never even becoming a TD let alone a TS!

Seems as if the wishcasting has begun.


Excuse me but who is wishcasting?
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Quoting doabarrelroll:


I think the idea of having buses pick up residents and evacuate them is a good one. It is something that many cities already do with much success. I do see ur point about the stick figures though. A radio ad buy would have been more effective.

The money for the giant stick figures has already been blown, so there's not much we can do about that. As a former emergency manager, I'm more concerned about the rules for people getting on the busses. In addition to the law enforcement issues I pointed out in my last post, they also want every pet that gets on to have all his vaccination records and medications. How many people will have their pet's vaccination records ready to hand if they have only a few hours to evacuate? Who's going to check if each pet has their medication, and how will anyone even know what medications a pet is supposed to be on? If the pet doesn't have the right records or meds, what do they do - throw it off the bus? These are the kind of rules made up by bureaucrats sitting around some office that have never been involved in running the chaos that's part of every major disaster in their lives.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16967
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Ok, I might have misunderstood what was going on last night in this conversation. Typically people add up the inbound peak and the outbound peak for a wind speed, thus confusing shear with velocity. I have since looked at the radar data once more, even trying to roughly estimate velocities by manually dealiasing pixels where GR2Analyst failed.

I believe I have seen something interesting that might be consistent with what you were saying, if what you were saying was that the radar (and the DOWs) estimated ~290kt velocities, and NOT 290kts of shear. If either of you have more information on this and can help me clarify, please contact me directly through PM or email as soon as you can.
Really can't help you there, Scott. I don't even own GRLevel2Analyst or have good knowledge as I was just using the numbers someone posted. However, a meteorologist just posted that DOWs collected 110 m/s at US81 and more than 115 m/s at I-40 at 0.5 tilt. That's very impressive for a tornado, still.
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Quoting Torito:
Wow 5" plus in south Florida.




Tampa and many surrounding areas already had 3 to 5 inches this weekend with some places having around 8 inches.
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Big shield of rain working its way into Southwest FL.

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Quoting seminolesfan:
@Luisport:

Why the bold on EVERY post, buddy?

If you couldn't tell, that's not the normal routine for posters on this blog.

I can understand a few bolded posts for TOR Warnings or the such impending-disaster type posts, but I'm seeing you bold every post you make now. Any reason?

Just curious...
well i bold what i think is very important to people pay attention... but i can stop to use it...
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Seemingly the UKMET would agree with NAM/CMC in placement

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The models' rainfall outputs for Florida get better and better each run! I don't think this system will be a "bust" for Florida in anyway. This is Fay 2, but for the west coast instead of the east
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Quoting Tazmanian:
03/0545 UTC 20.9N 86.6W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic
Link for that one so I can bookmark it as well, please?
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Ah yes, someone threw out the widely misused term "wischaster." Guess it really is hurricane season.
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03/0545 UTC 20.9N 86.6W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic
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This much rain would be lovely

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Now its all up to KOUN to see if they use the data or not.

It took a while for them to reluctantly use the 113 m/s wind in the 2010 El Reno tornado

Personally with the 293 knot velocities, I think its likely.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

SHEAR not velocities.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
A meteorologist on AmericanWX forum "heard" that the data from two DOWs all showed above 100 m/s winds. He also heard that there were many teams from different places measuring the tornado as well.

Ok, I might have misunderstood what was going on last night in this conversation. Typically people add up the inbound peak and the outbound peak for a wind speed, thus confusing shear with velocity. I have since looked at the radar data once more, even trying to roughly estimate velocities by manually dealiasing pixels where GR2Analyst failed.

I believe I have seen something interesting that might be consistent with what you were saying, if what you were saying was that the radar (and the DOWs) estimated ~290kt velocities, and NOT 290kts of shear. If either of you have more information on this and can help me clarify, please contact me directly through PM or email as soon as you can.
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anyone else notice the other low later in the cmc

Yay rain(if it would verify)




the other low







Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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