Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Initiation progged for around 16z...


@19z things start cranking up...



21z...


00z 6/5...



LOOP LINK
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We had an inch 1.0 over the last 3 days at my gage.

I hope central florida is getting a good soak, the Ocklawaha basin needs it badly. Lakes like Apopka are still a foot down below minimum desirable levels and even further below regulation schedules.

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Quoting carolinabelle:
Morning all, from sunny SC ;) Random question... do any of you know what is the furthest distance an actual hurricane has traveled inland (in the U.S.) after landfall? I know Hazel in 1954 maintained hurricane force winds until hitting the Toronto area, but I believe it was technically downgraded long before that. Please correct me if I'm wrong - thanks!
Which I could answer Ike comes close though well recently at least.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



It's been a while since then....trust me when summer comes it will be good to have had it.


yes, it comes and takes years to dry up... if it was a good quick-shot event only to wet things...yeah but it's not like that really here.


91L and more more storms like that we'll have to endure...
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Let me correct myself.

"power" is the 3rd power of the velocity of the fluid impacting an object, multiplied by density, and divided by 2. The must multiply by surface area, but since we are assuming the same targets in all cases, varying only wind speed, none of that matters. The division by 2 cancels, the density cancels, the surface area cancels, adn we are left only with velocity cubed.

Velocity cubed gives us 3 of those 8 powers.

Distance penetrated gives us probably only half of one power, not a full power.

Area/size of a storm is not correlated to wind speed, so it is detrimental to that chart.

After some thought, "breaking strength" is not another power, it is merely the point at which the product of all other powers overcomes "new" targets.

So really I can actually only explain about 3.5 to 4 powers through dimensional analysis.

The most relevant milestones would be:

Mobile home damaged but not destroyed
Mobile home destroyed
Slab house has some superficial damage
Slab house roof failure
Total failure of a conventional "stick" slab house
Total failure of a foam or other non-conventional slab house.
Levee over tops
Levee breaches
Partial failure of commercial buildings ( roof peel, windows, etc)
Total failure of a commercial building. (never seen it).
I agree with you that the numbers seem a bit high...but what formula are you using? I think the NWS needs to explain their stuff, not necessarily you. Does it really make sense (in general) that an 80 mph storm produces 1.6x more damage than a 75 mph storm?! That doesn't seem right.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
"[A]ll the impressive rain Naples" has had? Over the past five days--May 31 through now--we've received just 1.29". As I stated earlier, we've mostly had overcast skies and very high humidity interrupted by the occasional passing shower. I learned years ago to take rainfall amount forecasts with a grain carton of salt, so I'm not really surprised. But given Friday's use of terms like "very heavy" and "extreme" rainfall, I'd be lying if said I wasn't expecting a little more than what we've had...


Hi Nea (and masonsnana) -- looks like it's been all Sound and no Fury so far! Hopefully we get the "big gulp" that most of the rest of the state has already had. The brown lawns and pale trees could use that rain that's lurking out there in the Gulf. It would be so nice to really get our growing season going in June, rather than waiting for July for the summer's rains to kick in.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
\

GA we dont want rain here... we had too much in May in Atlanta...

At least from my point of view.



It's been a while since then....flooding issues should be decreaed.
Trust me when summer comes it will be good to have had it.

(unless another storm hits)
Lakes holding steady @ full pool( w lanier over by a bit), a cushion would be nice.
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Quoting carolinabelle:
Morning all, from sunny SC ;) Random question... do any of you know what is the furthest distance an actual hurricane has traveled inland (in the U.S.) after landfall? I know Hazel in 1954 maintained hurricane force winds until hitting the Toronto area, but I believe it was technically downgraded long before that. Please correct me if I'm wrong - thanks!


Maybe Ike 2008
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Morning all, from sunny SC ;) Random question... do any of you know what is the furthest distance an actual hurricane has traveled inland (in the U.S.) after landfall? I know Hazel in 1954 maintained hurricane force winds until hitting the Toronto area, but I believe it was technically downgraded long before that. Please correct me if I'm wrong - thanks!
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HRRR predicting lots of rain for the Metro Orlando area today/tonight.

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Another big rain event...

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT COMBINED
WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL LOW...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT OF THIS LOW AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A FEW
STORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM THE FRONT.
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Our rainfall forecast for the Keys over the last week has been pretty much spot on. I wish they would reset our rainfall totals a little more often though.

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Come on models trend west to north Ga not east to southeast GA....

going the wrong way
\

GA we dont want rain here... we had too much in May in Atlanta...

At least from my point of view.
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Quoting robintampabay:


Looking at the radar, you and your fellow Cape Coral residents should get a nice steady drizzle for the next few hours!

Would like steady rain, lawn is dead! lol
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15.38 Clock: Meissen will take power lines from the power


The Elbe rises and rises. The town of Meissen (Saxony) aims to take account of the high water single power cables from the power supply. "Preparations are going on," said Mayor Olaf Raschke (independent). If the same anschwelle as expected, it was necessary.

Previously, the water had flooded a protective wall in Meissen and had run into the old town. In the morning a water level of 8.06 meters was measured. The water rose thereafter to continue, residents were brought to safety. Especially the theater of the city made the workers concerned. There, the foyer was full. If the water reaches the ceiling, renovated after the 2002 flood areas would be destroyed again.
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very impressive tropical wave in the central atlantic, for this early in the season.
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Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #1119 - I will be absolutely amazed if we get anything like that much rainfall here in the Cape. For all the impressive rain Naples and points south/east have had, my location in Cape Coral has only had 1.5 inches in the last 5 days. Save for a really good soaking on Sunday, we've mostly just had sprinkles from the sky out of the Gulf low so far.
"[A]ll the impressive rain Naples" has had? Over the past five days--May 31 through now--we've received just 1.29". As I stated earlier, we've mostly had overcast skies and very high humidity interrupted by the occasional passing shower. I learned years ago to take rainfall amount forecasts with a grain carton of salt, so I'm not really surprised. But given Friday's use of terms like "very heavy" and "extreme" rainfall, I'd be lying if said I wasn't expecting a little more than what we've had...
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Quoting masonsnana:

Lucky you. I'm in the NW Cape. I've gotten 00.02 inches in the past 5 days lol. On and off sprinkles this a.m.
Good morning all.


Looking at the radar, you and your fellow Cape Coral residents should get a nice steady drizzle for the next few hours!
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Quoting mikatnight:



The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 categorization based on the hurricane's intensity at the indicated time. The maximum sustained surface wind speed (peak 1-minute wind at 33 feet) is the determining factor in the scale. This scale provides examples of the type of damages and impacts in the United States associated with winds of the indicated intensity. In general, it shows damages rise by about a factor of four for every category increase. However, this does not address the potential for such other hurricane-related impacts, such as storm surge, rainfall-induced floods, and tornadoes. When these additional factors are considered the rate of increase in damage is much higher. When asked to rate potential damage from a category one hurricane to a category two or three storm most people's results are often linear in increasing damage. However, since the potential damage increase from category to category is logarithmic then small increases in wind strength can dramatically increase damage.

When the cost from hurricane related damages are normalized (normalization takes into account inflation, changes in population, and changes in wealth to arrive at a common level for comparison) the result shows an eighth-power increase in damages from category to category. What this means is the potential damage from a hurricane is 28 power. For example, a doubling of the wind speed from 75 mph to 150 mph is not a doubling or quadrupling of potential damage but a 256 times increase (2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2=256). This is evident in that over 85% of all damages from hurricanes come from category three, four, and five storms, yet these storms make up only 24% of all landfalling storms. The following table shows the rate of increase for various wind speeds in a hurricane as compared to a minimal 75 mph category one hurricane.

These values indicate increases in damage potential ABOVE damage that occurs with a 75 mph hurricane.

Remember, damage WILL occur with a 75 mph hurricane. The multiplier values are the potential damage increases above what could occur with a 75 mph storm. Note the rapid increase in potential damage just within each category. A 95 mph hurricane can produce nearly seven times the damage as a 75 mph hurricane with just a 20 mph increase in wind strength. A 10 mph increase in wind speed, from 100 mph to 110 mph, results in over doubling potential damage from 10-times that of a 75 mph hurricane to 21-times.

Source: NWS
So how are they getting the actual multiplier though? how do they measure these damages? In a wind tunnel or something? They don't really discuss their methods.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Wow the LLC is so far from the convection.....(at least I think that's the LLC north of the yucatan)

Looks like 91L kicked that one out. Watch for another to develop under the convection.

And Good Morning to all
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1176. lhwhelk
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Breakfast's on the sideboard: Egg, sausage and cheese casserole, bagels with cream cheese and jelly, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy.

I'll feed the sausage to the dogs, but the rest sounds good!
Perfect dog-walking weather here at 76 degrees, and NO mosquitoes. None at all so far this year--hard to believe. Maybe 91-L will slosh some ocean into the marshes and we'll get the salt-marsh mosquitoes soon; they're nasty little things.
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1175. VR46L
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Wow the LLC is so far from the convection.....(at least I think that's the LLC north of the yucatan)



Yep its in the centre of the Gulf According to Tropical Atlantic

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Tuesday, Jun. 4, 2013 12:00 Z

Location at the time:
395 statue miles (636 km) to the S (173°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

Wind (1 min. avg.):
25 knots (~29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)

Pressure:
1009 mb (29.80 inHg | 1009 hPa)

Coordinates:
24.3N 89.3W

Source:
National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System and not from any available advisory data
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Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #1119 - I will be absolutely amazed if we get anything like that much rainfall here in the Cape. For all the impressive rain Naples and points south/east have had, my location in Cape Coral has only had 1.5 inches in the last 5 days. Save for a really good soaking on Sunday, we've mostly just had sprinkles from the sky out of the Gulf low so far.

Lucky you. I'm in the NW Cape. I've gotten 00.02 inches in the past 5 days lol. On and off sprinkles this a.m.
Good morning all.
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‘Even the most experienced researchers and chasers are in danger’
NBCs Tom Costello spoke with Dr. Marshall Shepherd, President of the American Meteorological Society, about the risks and scientific benefits of storm chasing. Video
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1172. flcanes
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Thanks for the heads up, Flcanes. I am actually well south and east of this event. This is primarily restricted to low lying areas in the Mississippi River floodplain.

-----------------------

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
MOC183-041930-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FF.W.0024.130604T0133Z-130604T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
833 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVEE BREACH...
NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT TUESDAY

* AT 820 PM CDT...THE LEVEE NEAR U.S. HIGHWAY 67 NEAR LINCOLN
SHIELDS...PROTECTING LAND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BREACHED
AND WAS RAPIDLY FLOODING NEARBY LAND. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
REPORTED FLASH FLOODING WAS BEGINNING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...WEST ALTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3881 9012 3883 9015 3882 9018 3885 9025
3888 9029 3892 9027 3890 9022 3884 9011

$$

TES

Your welcome. I just hoped that you would know
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Quoting FOREX:


Maybe some wind??
brisk north wind bringing in drier air
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Re: #1119 - I will be absolutely amazed if we get anything like that much rainfall here in the Cape. For all the impressive rain Naples and points south/east have had, my location in Cape Coral has only had 1.5 inches in the last 5 days. Save for a really good soaking on Sunday, we've mostly just had sprinkles from the sky out of the Gulf low so far.
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Quoting RTLSNK:


The "Mods" have never had trouble with the moving Avatars,
someone in the community mentioned on sensitivethugs
blog that the moving Avatars were bothering them. Some
people can't watch 3-D movies, or have reactions to
those blue headlights that came out years ago, or get
a little vertigo when looking at moving stuff like that.

I have a little trouble with moving stuff like that
myself but I just go right by them without looking at
them. :)
I think he was talking about my other avatars.Like the one that had the zombie or the girls with the wink face.
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1167. RTLSNK
Quoting washingtonian115:
Unfortunately yes :(.That is why I've had to change it so much these last few weeks.So far this one is not causing a problem.The previous one I had with the zombie was deleted from the site completely and the others have copy right issues and plagerized signs on them so yeah...


Morning wash, gee, I thought the zombie was ok. :)
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Wow the LLC is so far from the convection.....(at least I think that's the LLC north of the yucatan)

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Good morning from cloudy Longboat Key, Florida! We've only seen some very light and spotty showers this morning. Local weather stations are predicting up to 8" of rain over the next couple of days. No problem, we can handle that. Just don't want any strong winds to blow up out of this thing.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A beautiful 74 degrees with a slight breeze.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Egg, sausage and cheese casserole, bagels with cream cheese and jelly, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy.
I have a question..Do you really cook all this stuff or is it a tease to get us hungry :).
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1163. RTLSNK
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Hey wash, do the mods still have problems with your avatars?


The "Mods" have never had trouble with the moving Avatars,
someone in the community mentioned on sensitivethugs
blog that the moving Avatars were bothering them. Some
people can't watch 3-D movies, or have reactions to
those blue headlights that came out years ago, or get
a little vertigo when looking at moving stuff like that.

I have a little trouble with moving stuff like that
myself but I just go right by them without looking at
them. :)
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RE 1091

My eyes are crossed and my head is ... just put it this way .... not even a second cup or 50 cups of coffee would help me get through what you just said! *lol*

Good morning/afternoon/evening everyone

Welcome back, Largo!

Finally, a grey drizzly morning over here. Not a leaf moving. Hope it stays around for a while. Getting close to moving those tools off the cistern cover and not wanting to!

Lindy
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Quoting Luisport:
in the city of Halle, Germany, the water level is hitting 8 meters at the moment, with more to come. Normal level is around 2 meters. They've just anounced that it's past the previous hightest flood levels in the history of the city. Yesterday, they tried sandbagging around the local Tv/ media center, but it broke through early this morning causing millions of euros in water damage Link
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Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A beautiful 74 degrees with a slight breeze.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Egg, sausage and cheese casserole, bagels with cream cheese and jelly, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy.
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Quoting Luisport:
Danube levees are breaking near the town of Deggendorf, at the villages of Fischerdorf and Winzer. The levee in Niederalteich is also in a critical condition.

Evacuations are happening right now...
in the city of Halle, Germany, the water level is hitting 8 meters at the moment, with more to come. Normal level is around 2 meters. They've just anounced that it's past the previous hightest flood levels in the history of the city. Yesterday, they tried sandbagging around the local Tv/ media center, but it broke through early this morning causing millions of euros in water damage.
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1155. FOREX
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Pensacola. How about you?


Panama City Beach. Love Pensacola. Beautiful beach.
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Quoting FunnelVortex:
Hey wash, do the mods still have problems with your avatars?
Unfortunately yes :(.That is why I've had to change it so much these last few weeks.So far this one is not causing a problem.The previous one I had with the zombie was deleted from the site completely and the others have copy right issues and plagerized signs on them so yeah...
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Quoting FOREX:


He's on my ignore list since yesterday. Where do you live Panhandle Chuck??


Pensacola. How about you?
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Danube levees are breaking near the town of Deggendorf, at the villages of Fischerdorf and Winzer. The levee in Niederalteich is also in a critical condition.

Evacuations are happening right now...
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1151. flcanes
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Beautiful morning here in Southern Illinois!!! :-)


Watch out, levee breaches r already happening in MO
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Hey wash, do the mods still have problems with your avatars?
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Quoting FOREX:


I agree. If not for the dry air something might develop.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Heavy rain will come from it. That's about it.
That is thye only real threat.Even if it were to become a tropical storm the winds wouldn't mean much because the rain will be really heavy at times.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Who is anotherwrong year? And where do they live? Love it when the experts don't post s pic with their profile!
anotheryear from what I've seen is well I don't want to say troll because their is nothing wrong with being skeptical when it comes to weather but they seem to downcast every event.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Who is anotherwrong year? And where do they live? Love it when the experts don't post s pic with their profile!


Just a pot stirrer. Don't feed the trolls.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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