Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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pretty disorganized but its raining heavy here in e cent fl. big time downpour for a hr and no sign of it stopping. no thunder? showing florida its not your ordinary system
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Quoting VR46L:


Might be why it was one of the first things, I was taught in Geography in Primary school ,the Beaufort scale .. It is still used on this side of the Atlantic all the time !
I have a small collection of actual weather maps from the 50,s and 60,s..They do not make them like that anymore.. Hope you are doing well..:)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
. So if this is route, will that mean less rain for south Florida?
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Quoting anotherwrongyear:
no way.... they arent chanfing their minds again are they? wow what a total surprise
What?
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They keep moving the center position of 91L around, a couple days ago it was at around 86W but now it's a full three degrees further to the west at 89W?

It's no wonder the models are strengthening it, the circulation is moving out over open water instead of getting stuck over the Yucatan.
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Now that the supposed "ghost storm" has showed up the models aren't even enthusiastic to develop it beyond a depression/week tropical storm.I remember the GFS showing doom for Florida on several runs.At one point showing a cat 2 running into Florida.As I've said before shear forecast are tricky beyond 48 hours out.
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490. VR46L
Quoting MississippiWx:


The storm the models have been developing in the Caribbean for weeks is 91L. The problem is they had the placement wrong. It has moved from the Caribbean, to the Bay of Campeche and now to its actual location--the Southern Gulf. The models, especially the GFS, did a great job of sniffing out the potential weeks ago. The flaw is the usual GFS-bias of moving the MJO too quickly. Overall, job well done by the GFS.


Are you being serious , The GFS was predicting something since the 10th of May ! 10+16 is the 26th of May its a week late . Sorry but that to me is not a good Job and we still dont know if there is a storm going to happen or where it is going .
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Quoting stormchaser19:
Models intensity are trending to increase!!!!18z
Hmm i wonder why...
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I find it amazing how little the peninsula of Pinellas gets in the way of rain in situations like these. I've watched many many storms roll by my area and for some reason the rain just wraps around us and most of the rain falls everywhere but here. We sure could use some rain, not 10 inches, but some rain none the less. I guess the next few days will give us some precipitation, hope the flooding that is predicted isn't too bad elsewhere.
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

That's the tropical wave over near 35W.

GFS showed something like that the past few days as well.



Hey,I see you're new!

welcome!
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Quoting sar2401:

Still nothing up here in Eufaula. It's 93 with a dewpoint of 69. Our PWAT is up to 1.85. It's like a danged sauna bath outside...and all we have is a few clouds. If this 91L actually becomes somethng and we still don't get any rain, me and the lawn are going to be really cranked off.
Do you know Charly Muncher?
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
And, what happened to that ghost storm that was supposed to perk up from the perennial Columbian Low again this year? ;)

It's too early still to get excited. Models are still transitioning seasonal data, conditions still not where they need to be for cycolgenesis proper. But, don't fret, I'm thinking the season's going to have several surprises in store for us. :(
Quoting weatherh98:


the GFS' phantom storm?

the one that shows up every year?

the one that never happens??

ya I remember


The storm the models have been developing in the Caribbean for weeks is 91L. The problem is they had the placement wrong. It has moved from the Caribbean, to the Bay of Campeche and now to its actual location--the Southern Gulf. The models, especially the GFS, did a great job of sniffing out the potential weeks ago. The flaw is the usual GFS-bias of moving the MJO too quickly. Overall, job well done by the GFS.
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Quoting nigel20:

It seems as if you're enjoying pretty good weather at this time.
How are you doing, Pedley?


It went HOT for a few days and now settled in to the June Ritual. This is OK for year round as far I as I am concerned. The Sun is out but it won't get to much warmer. Forecast 83F today. Been doing OK here. No rain for awhile, only 2.21 since Jan 1. Very dry here compared to normal. Should be 90 by the weekend.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6239
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I want it to raaaaain....



go cmc and clp5....

I notice bam deep goes up east coast and bam medium and shallow go west, so maybe central gulf / florida panhandle isnt so far off?

The CLP is just climatology. The CMC has been wanting to bring a strong TS right in over PCB since Saturday. However, that means the low would go over my house and my lawn would get watered. Since that has never happened here in June before, you can discard those models. If it does anything, it will go to wherever SE AL is on the dry side of the storm. Never fails.
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Models intensity are trending to increase!!!!18z
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Speaking of rain it just rained very hard for 20 minutes about a hour and half ago.I was expected rain but not that much.
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Quoting PedleyCA:
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 12:49 PM PDT on June 03, 2013
Clear
77 °F
Clear
Humidity: 51%

Dew Point: 57 °F
Wind: 4 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 10.0 mph
Pressure: 29.80 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 79 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 12 out of 16
Pollen: 3.70 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

79.6 here

It seems as if you're enjoying pretty good weather at this time.
How are you doing, Pedley?
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I wish it would Rain
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6239
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
This was from earlier today, but it shows the broad, elongated center taking shape:


Broad and eleongated is certainly the understatement of the day. It actually appears there are two and maybe three sort of low pressure centers in that mess.
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Quoting zampaz:

Thank you moonlightcowboy and everyone else for the links! I'll go learn about shear now.
I enjoy all of the comments on the JM blogs, keeperofthegate, koritheman and folks like you who share your knowledge. I'll be lurking and learning.
Thanks again y'all.
-z


Welcome. Many good folks here, and they'll be glad to help you. It's an interesting topic, these huge and violent storms. Definitely been a long-time hobby of mine. I enjoy it. And, you can just call me MLC. :) Have a good one!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Pretty disorganized.
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469. VR46L
Quoting hydrus:
Rear Admiral Sir Francis Beaufort, (27 May 1774 %u2013 17 December 1857) was an Irish hydrographer and officer in Britain's Royal Navy. ......Link


Might be why it was one of the first things, I was taught in Geography in Primary school ,the Beaufort scale .. It is still used on this side of the Atlantic all the time !
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Quoting nigel20:

I'm also hoping that the Jamaican radar will be back up on the met service of Jamaica website before the peak of the hurricane season. It has a range of 480km.


Well, with how things usually happen here in Cayman, we'll get access on or around November 30th!
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Is it a shame I'm already saying rip? :(.
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Quoting anotherwrongyear:
my comments was extremely true and possitive the forcast and models change every 6 hours and do so with every storm the past 9 years so dont predict doom and gloom when you have no idea

Well, it really helps if you'd at least use some punctuation. It's hard to tell how possitive (sic) and true your comments are when my brain hurts trying to figure out where the sentences begin and end.
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Quoting barbamz:

Yes, I'm following multiple threads on a german weatherblog, but the situation in those widespread areas is too complicated to be posted on WU in detail. Situation in the Czech Republic seems to be serious. Some pics and a recent overview are here (coverage in English media is a bit slow, but this one is already from tomorrow :-)

Ten dead, thousands evacuated as floods sweep Europe
AFP, June 04, 2013 5:35AM

In Germany they are very concerned about the River Elbe and it's towns tomorrow (f.e. Magdeburg). A lot of emergency alerts, several villages are already abandoned.

New thunderstorms are right now moving in at the eastern border of our country to boot.

Tomorrow morning I'll go to our Rhine River when the waters will reach the maximum (but without danger for my town). They've already flooded some polder areas nearby in order to achieve some relief for the towns down the river.


Thank's! I's very difficult to get updates...
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This was from earlier today, but it shows the broad, elongated center taking shape:

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I want it to raaaaain....



go cmc and clp5....

I notice bam deep goes up east coast and bam medium and shallow go west, so maybe central gulf / florida panhandle isnt so far off?
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
zampaz, I added another little tidbit to the 200mb level. That is a key area - it's where we see if the storm has vertical structure at all layers, and it's how we can tell if a storm is maturing to its full potential.

Thank you moonlightcowboy and everyone else for the links! I'll go learn about shear now.
I enjoy all of the comments on the JM blogs, keeperofthegate, koritheman and folks like you who share your knowledge. I'll be lurking and learning.
Thanks again y'all.
-z
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Rear Admiral Sir Francis Beaufort, (27 May 1774 – 17 December 1857) was an Irish hydrographer and officer in Britain's Royal Navy. ......Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 12:49 PM PDT on June 03, 2013
Clear
77 °F
Clear
Humidity: 51%

Dew Point: 57 °F
Wind: 4 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 10.0 mph
Pressure: 29.80 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 79 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 12 out of 16
Pollen: 3.70 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

79.6 here
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6239
459. MPI88
Quoting ScottLincoln:

My understanding is that you can't do a reduction factor for tornadic winds the same way you can with hurricane winds.


Well, we assume it behaves in a linear way with hurricanes, which of often a fair assumption. There is a big range in conversion values between gradient height / free surface though(0.65-0.85).

It's actually nowhere near linear in the coastal zone. Just too much influence of the shore. On the open ocean, fair assumption!
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Really can't help you there, Scott. I don't even own GRLevel2Analyst or have good knowledge as I was just using the numbers someone posted. However, a meteorologist just posted that DOWs collected 110 m/s at US81 and more than 115 m/s at I-40 at 0.5 tilt. That's very impressive for a tornado, still.

Ok. I guess I quoted your post because of some of the information in it. That brings about the next question... where was the information being posted?
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Quoting sar2401:

Still nothing up here in Eufuala. It's 93 with a dewpoint of 69. Our PWAT is up to 1.85. It's like a danged sauna bath outside...and all we have is a few clouds. If this 91L actually becomes somethng and we still don't get any rain, me and the lawn are going to be really cranked off.


We have plenty here if you want it
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Quoting Cayman2010:


There are ignorant people in all countries who don't understand the importance of how technology such as this can help so I wouldn't pay much attention to the few comments made in relation to the article.

To the best of my knowledge imagery from the radar is not yet publically available, but hopefully will be before the peak of the season.

I'm also hoping that the Jamaican radar will be back up on the met service of Jamaica website before the peak of the hurricane season. It has a range of 480km.
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Quoting PcolaSurf182:


Finally! Today was the 1st time it has rained at my house in over 3 weeks. I was begining to wonder if it would ever rain again. Ha! Hopefully we will get some more sometime this week.

Still nothing up here in Eufaula. It's 93 with a dewpoint of 69. Our PWAT is up to 1.85. It's like a danged sauna bath outside...and all we have is a few clouds. If this 91L actually becomes somethng and we still don't get any rain, me and the lawn are going to be really cranked off.
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Quoting K8eCane:
The NWS In Wilmington is having a problem. The updated forecast discussion has gone back to SUNDAY 419am. Weird.

I guess they may be busy. We all need an ark almost
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The NWS In Wilmington is having a problem. The updated forecast discussion has gone back to SUNDAY 419am. Weird.
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Quoting sar2401:

Indeed. There's also a chance I could be struck by a meteorite. I was mulling over that possibility earlier today but decided to go outside anyway.
Very funny!! answer!!LOL!!! well done,unfortunately there are members on this blog that don't provide anything positive or informative to this great weather blog!!,just trying to go against everybody comments,what I do just ignore!!.
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zampaz, I added another little tidbit to the 200mb level. That is a key area - it's where we see if the storm has vertical structure at all layers, and it's how we can tell if a storm is maturing to its full potential.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Shows same as ASCAT in #433



Getting better organized each passing hour.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This tornado was weird though. If we use the 20% reduction for surface winds, that gives 195 mph-210 mph, which is a high-end EF4 to EF5. When OUN went surveying, they found no evidence of tree debarking, ground scouring, or wind rowing...things you would expect from a tornado of this magnitude.

Strange.

My understanding is that you can't do a reduction factor for tornadic winds the same way you can with hurricane winds. In fact, there is evidence suggesting that winds in a tornado do not behave linearly from the mesocyclone down to the surface, and may get stronger just above the surface. This is a topic that is a bit out of my league, though. This is why we really have to be very cautious in rating tornadoes based upon remotely-sensed, elevated velocity data.
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Quoting sar2401:

Hi Nigel. How are things in paradise?

The weather is pretty good, but the economy is not doing too well.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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