Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Andrebrooks:
That's Patty from last year or Bret from 2011.
That is awfulterribad Danny from 2009..a look that is not to be confused with any other T.C..
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Quoting hydrus:
College of DuPage Weather Site
NEXLAB Media Page
Link
Thank you!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Unfortunately it will not look as pretty in reality as the model has it protrayed...but anything is beeeetter looking than this..


That's Patty from last year or Bret from 2011.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1341
Unfortunately it will not look as pretty in reality as the model has it protrayed...but anything is beeeetter looking than this..


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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
72HR 18Z GFS
hmmmmm is this going to continue north or move towards the NE?
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
. So if this is route, will that mean less rain for south Florida?


Lately we are either in a drought or a flood.

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ECMWF and GFS are pretty identical this run, a 1003mb tropical cyclone by 63-72 hours.
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72HR 18Z GFS
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College of DuPage Weather Site
NEXLAB Media Page
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Thank you!! I will be in my computer between 7-8pm EDT,looking forward to see you analysis of the precipitation for South & Central Florida.If you don't mind can you post the link to get this precipitation graphic maps.
Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22313
ok look it this evening there are 2 LLC one off the E coast of Belize around 17N 87W and the other near cozumel around 21N 86W both are getting stronger convection is now diminishing as DMin arrives as the hours go by we shall see where convection increases and the LLC get stronger
though I do have to say convection is loving the S near Honduras because although convection has decreased over our 2 LLC's it has increased over and near Honduras NE Nicaragua Guatemala and Belize
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Quoting unknowncomic:
“The United States has been especially fortunate in experiencing no major hurricane landfalls since 2005,” team leader William Gray said. “Prior to the past seven years, there had not been a seven-year period on record since 1851 with no major hurricane landfalls in the United States. These conditions should not be expected to continue.”


"Major Hurricane" is a misleading term.

More people died in Sandy than in Andrew.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
536. VR46L
Quoting hydrus:
I am well..I actually lost some very rare and valuable weather books in 1985 to Tropical Storm Bob. I was out at sea and my car was inundated from heavy rain. All books in trunk were ruined because they sat for two weeks in the heat and molded..I was not happy.


Awe that is terrible :(. Sometimes there is nothing like the feel of an old book or Map but I doubt there will be books or paper maps in 20 years time .
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Quoting hydrus:
I have not had time to check things out for I just got home, but if you are around in a hour or two, I will post my thoughts on it.
Thank you!! I will be in my computer between 7-8pm EDT,looking forward to see you analysis of the precipitation for South & Central Florida.If you don't mind can you post the link to get this precipitation graphic maps.
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I think it's a storm at 66 hours
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
Thanks for the link, Tropics!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
ssd took the floater down for 91L?
Why.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1341
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Thank you very much!! for posting the map,do you think that all that rain will move East into South & Central Florida?.
I have not had time to check things out for I just got home, but if you are around in a hour or two, I will post my thoughts on it.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22313
ssd took the floater down for 91L?
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Quoting VR46L:


Yeah , I know the school I went to 25-30 years ago had these beautiful maps and Globes then . But I bet they were all thrown out shame Really beautiful stuff.

I am doing great and You :)
I am well..I actually lost some very rare and valuable weather books in 1985 to Tropical Storm Bob. I was out at sea and my car was inundated from heavy rain. All books in trunk were ruined because they sat for two weeks in the heat and molded..I was not happy.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22313
Quoting hydrus:
This is new, and just 66 hours out..That is a lot of rain.
Thank you very much!! for posting the map,do you think that all that rain will move East into South & Central Florida?.
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new map!
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“The United States has been especially fortunate in experiencing no major hurricane landfalls since 2005,” team leader William Gray said. “Prior to the past seven years, there had not been a seven-year period on record since 1851 with no major hurricane landfalls in the United States. These conditions should not be expected to continue.”
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Quoting Hurricane1956:
hydrus can you be so kind to please post the latest map-graphic rain amount for Florida.
Thank you!.
This is new, and just 66 hours out..That is a lot of rain.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22313
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The forum called AmericanWx. It's the forum most meteorologists hang out at.

Kind of reminds me of how Stormtrack used to be, in a way.

They even mention the shapefiles I provide and the GR software repository I worked up (based on one I did internally for the NWS). Nifty. I rarely ever hear anything about about these things nor do I find out that they are used that much.
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EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2013
We continue to foresee a very active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic remains very warm, and we do not anticipate development of a significant El Niño. Given the above-average forecast, we are calling for an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.
(as of 3 June 2013)
By Philip
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hydrus can you be so kind to please post the latest map-graphic rain amount for Florida.
Thank you!.
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Quoting VR46L:


I don't believe this ..... No, they are in fairy tale land most of time. I am sorry, But I do understaond what models do ,they are only one tool in forecasting and I hope to God when Recon go in tomorrow , they shed some light on the situation .


Lol. You don't have to believe it, but it's a fact. There is really no debate and it's no coincidence that we have something to watch now, the first week of June like some of us have been saying for a while.
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In case anyone missed it from this morning,here is the CSU June forecast
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519. VR46L
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. Yes, I'm being totally serious. Some of you don't seem to understand that models can't be taken at face-value. You have to take what patterns they are showing in the long range and see if they make any sense. What the GFS has been showing for a while is this very pattern, but it was just too quick with it. Models are not meant to be taken literally in the long term, but if you look into what they are showing then you might be able to pick up a thing or two. Second of all, it doesn't matter if it forms or not because I said it picked up the pattern. Much different.


I don't believe this ..... No, they are in fairy tale land most of time. I am sorry, But I do understaond what models do ,they are only one tool in forecasting and I hope to God when Recon go in tomorrow , they shed some light on the situation .
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Quoting anotherwrongyear:
well so far no rain here and yesterday they 50% today 70% from this disorganized thing. tommorow they now say 40% and 50% wednesday which is down from the 80% they were saying last night for those days
Well will see what happens in the next few days ,but the latest rain amount map from the NWS still showing the majority of the rain for South Florida and Central Florida.
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Mnnnn!!!!??????
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
Quoting CaribBoy:
THIS DUST WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR MANY DAYS...WHILE
THE WAVE NEAR 32 WEST MOVES WEST NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA
.

What!? Waves are already recurving !? In June???!!!!! Lol



Well yes.. June has stronger troughs than you would in August or September.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
It did pick up a wet pattern.but it also showed favorable conditions in the tropics which proved false in the present.Shear is high in the gulf not to mention the dry air as being a problem (Texas still killing storms).


Well of course. You can't expect it to get every detail correct. The biggest difference is placement of where the storm is trying to form. It was originally supposed to develop in the Western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche. The ULAC is struggling to make it far enough north into the Gulf to be directly over 91L. It is instead shearing it and thus making development slow. Placement is everything and the development of 91L farther north is its biggest detriment.

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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
it happened last year with debby. Water was in my house, so stop being a complacent tampan lol


People have short memories around here when it comes to rain. The Tampa area had more rain last summer alone than most places in the country get in an entire year.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Do you have a link to the paper? Or a link to the conversation if it was on a forum?

The whole premise seems a little ridiculous to me. Perhaps in an idealized model simulation, but in the real world, eh, I'm doubtful winds scale very well at all. They may be roughly scalable but I'd still expect large error margins/range of values.

Facebook conservation.

Quoting ScottLincoln:

Ok. I guess I quoted your post because of some of the information in it. That brings about the next question... where was the information being posted?

The forum called AmericanWx. It's the forum most meteorologists hang out at.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Hey,I see you're new!

welcome!

It's HurricaneDean07. Nothing new there.
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Quoting evilpenguinshan:
Anyone have any idea what kind of crazy error would cause this reflectivity return?
the vcp changed from 32 to 21 and for a couple of frames the mountain tops were visible in the radar beam
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. Yes, I'm being totally serious. Some of you don't seem to understand that models can't be taken at face-value. You have to take what patterns they are showing in the long range and see if they make any sense. What the GFS has been showing for a while is this very pattern, but it was just too quick with it. Models are not meant to be taken literally in the long term, but if you look into what they are showing then you might be able to pick up a thing or two. Second of all, it doesn't matter if it forms or not because I said it picked up the pattern. Much different.
It did pick up a wet pattern.but it also showed favorable conditions in the tropics which proved false in the present.Shear is high in the gulf not to mention the dry air as being a problem (Texas still killing storms).
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Just FYI..

A total of 72 tornadoes have been confirmed from the May 26-31 tornado outbreak. This includes 26 EF0s, 29 EF1s, 11 EF2s, 5 EF3s, and an EF4. There have been a total of 23 deaths from the outbreak (includes non-tornadic). With surveys still ongoing and confirmations/ratings still incomplete, this number is obviously going to rise over the coming weeks and months (some tornadoes aren't confirmed and rated until NCDC data comes in during September). This outbreak ellipses the one on January 29-30 as the largest outbreak thus far in 2013.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THIS DUST WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR MANY DAYS...WHILE
THE WAVE NEAR 32 WEST MOVES WEST NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA
.

What!? Waves already want to RECURVE!? In June???!!!!! Lol

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Until they get a fix on the true center,the models will be all over the place.That short wave that is suppose to pick it up seems to be flatting out.
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Quoting hydrus:

I always thought of Beaufort as the inspiration to Saffir Simpson which says something about the value of Saffir Simpson. Too much emphasis on damage from winds when the storm surge is the most dangerous part of a hurricane.
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504. VR46L
Quoting hydrus:
I have a small collection of actual weather maps from the 50,s and 60,s..They do not make them like that anymore.. Hope you are doing well..:)


Yeah , I know the school I went to 25-30 years ago had these beautiful maps and Globes then . But I bet they were all thrown out shame Really beautiful stuff.

I am doing great and You :)
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Quoting VR46L:


Are you being serious , The GFS was predicting something since the 10th of May ! 10+16 is the 26th of May its a week late . Sorry but that to me is not a good Job and we still dont know if there is a storm going to happen or where it is going .


Lol. Yes, I'm being totally serious. Some of you don't seem to understand that models can't be taken at face-value. You have to take what patterns they are showing in the long range and see if they make any sense. What the GFS has been showing for a while is this very pattern, but it was just too quick with it. Models are not meant to be taken literally in the long term, but if you look into what they are showing then you might be able to pick up a thing or two. Second of all, it doesn't matter if it forms or not because I said it picked up the pattern. Much different.
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
. So if this is route, will that mean less rain for south Florida?




i dont no
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
I believe in my humble opinion what people don't understand and they are concentrating on the track of a supposed future tropical system,is that South & Central Florida will get most of the bad weather from what every system form if any??,the shear in the GOM will prevent this "future" system to have any moisture on it west side,so all the action will be on the East side,that is the reason everybody is predicting 10-20" of rain for South & Central Florida,it doesn't matter if the naked center enter through the Florida Panhandle as the Models are showing,South Florida and Central Florida will be the big players with this disorganized system.
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Quoting sar2401:

The CLP is just climatology. The CMC has been wanting to bring a strong TS right in over PCB since Saturday. However, that means the low would go over my house and my lawn would get watered. Since that has never happened here in June before, you can discard those models. If it does anything, it will go to wherever SE AL is on the dry side of the storm. Never fails.



I beg to differ, but last year we did get that nasty little disturbance that brought 15" of rain to Perdido
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Anyone have any idea what kind of crazy error would cause this reflectivity return?
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pretty disorganized but its raining heavy here in e cent fl. big time downpour for a hr and no sign of it stopping. no thunder? showing florida its not your ordinary system
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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