Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting barbamz:

Yes, I'm following multiple threads on a german weatherblog,
barbamz - do you have any information on the town of Bamberg? I believe you are close to this cute little town. I was lucky enough to live there for 3 years in the '80s thanks to Uncle Sam. I know the town is bisected by a river, and hope all is well there.

Thanks,

Cynyc2
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596. VR46L
Quoting sar2401:

So, there are 14 lows and 3 highs on that map. How is this model accurate again?


LOL!!!!

:)
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If I was reading those overlays on the SSD site properly, the pressure across the whole Gulf has fallen by an average of 2mb in the past few hours.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting MrMixon:
Well crud...

I guess the fire season in Colorado had to start sometime, but I was enjoying our relatively quiet spring.

"The Bluebell Fire south west of Evergreen Colorado was reported earlier this afternoon, on June 3rd, 2013.

Evacuation notices have been sent out to thousands of homes in the area"



More info here, here, and here.

Live video of firefighting operations is HERE.


I hope that is taken care of quickly. We don't need another large fire so soon. The one here is 30,000 acres and last I heard was 40% contained.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
hmmmmm is this going to continue north or move towards the NE?


Its looking more like a gulf Debby stall, lol.
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At least the S.E. is not looking down the barrel of a drought,going into the summer months!
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The story of the "chasers" isn't going away so fast. It shouln't. Hopefully out of the disaster to the chasers we'll see some new protocol in media and more self-policing amongst the amateurs or those in it professionally just for the money. They even have chaser tourist tours. From the previous blog.
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Seems like we have 3 different types of "extreme weather chasers" here.
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1. The best in the business of chasing and gathering scientific info, and doing it as safely as possible. Decades of experience, Samaras from all reports was a scientist first, and any money he made was an extra.
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2. The best in the business for media presentation of another episode of "the closest we can get to death". TWC crew and Bettes came close, and we'll see how TWC and Bettes deal with storm chasing in the future.
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3. The amateur in it strictly for the adrenaline rush and the money, money. Brandon Anderson's well-filmed clip appears to be a pre-planned run into the eye for the money bit...with the camera viewpoint nicely co-ordinated with the frantic fear as Anderson freaks on cue. CNN obliged by running the clip non-stop and just about every other channel piled on as Anderson gets the brass-ring and the dough. There's enough of the public, many of us, who pay-per-chase. Some naboob even posted the clip here first.
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Shows how capricious these storms can be to take down the top in category 1 and 2.
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I'd like to see the outcome be some community understanding amongst category 3 amateurs to allow for a buffer a few miles further away. And the media needs to take some responsibility and defer from showing the most sensational(I know, good luck).
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5581
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
72HR 18Z GFS

So, there are 14 lows and 3 highs on that map. How is this model accurate again?
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ATLANTIC
While not expected to amount to much of anything, a tropical wave which is quite healthy for so early in the season moved off the African coast a couple of days ago, and even amidst a dry/dusty Saharan Air Layer it is encountering, is still hanging in there.
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Quoting Andrebrooks:
What do you mean by that.


Did you check out that link? I asked him to Share and well....
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I just finished a new blog post on Invest 91L for those interested:

Link
I like your post.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
If Sandy was a Major Hurricane hitting the same area, deaths would've been higher. Just saying.


Not necessarily. As the hybrid/superstorm, Sandy had more IKE than any other pure tropical system, and the water damage is what did the majority killing and property loss. Being higher on the SS scale would not necessarily have made a higher total impact of surge, because high level SS scale storms tend to be much smaller in area than Sandy was at the time of landfall. Sure the peak surge may have been higher, but if it was like a category 3 at landfall, the area affected by severe surge would likely have been smaller.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Hope I am permitted to post a link to another weather site. Found it this morning. It has all the maps, models, and discussions in one place, in addition to updated comments on the right side of the page.

Link
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Regarding the Bluebell fire:

"It appears it began as a structure fire. The fire is less than four acres but is creating some spot fires."

Winds are going to be an issue for a while. Here's the latest from a personal weather station near the fire.



I'm watching the live video now. This is a VERY dangerous area due to relatively dense housing and plenty of fuel. It's an area I've worried about for years. Luckily fuels are not especially dry yet. Let's hope they get this sucker under control quickly. Here's a screenshot from the live video:



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Quoting PedleyCA:


I saw what you did there!!!!!
What do you mean by that.
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Quoting hydrus:
Link


I saw what you did there!!!!!
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Quoting MrMixon:
Well crud...

I guess the fire season in Colorado had to start sometime, but I was enjoying our relatively quiet spring.

"The Bluebell Fire south west of Evergreen Colorado was reported earlier this afternoon, on June 3rd, 2013.

Evacuation notices have been sent out to thousands of homes in the area"



More info here, here, and here.
That's terrible.
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Quoting anotherwrongyear:
holy cow bingo...... i believe ive been saying that since yesterday morning and getting ridiculed for being a troll and not knowing anything imagine that
You did cut the capitol letters out of your recent posts..so I think your are not disobeying the rules of the road.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183
91L is becoming well organized and the center is also starting to fill in.
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Well crud...

I guess the fire season in Colorado had to start sometime, but I was enjoying our relatively quiet spring.

"The Bluebell Fire south west of Evergreen Colorado was reported earlier this afternoon, on June 3rd, 2013.

Evacuation notices have been sent out to thousands of homes in the area"



More info here, here, and here.

Live video of firefighting operations is HERE.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Still looks better than Danny..

That looks like the Danny of the 2009 hurricane season.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
wow. I guess the latest gfs takes it into the central gulf then brought it back towards the big bend area based on those rainfall totals.

We know that typically June storms are eventually picked up by troughs which are still quite vigorous. Land fall on the big bend area would be no surprise. I am still looking at the maps.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183
Quoting SLU:
91L has certainly become better organised today. Latest satellite pictures indicate that a new low is trying to form near the deep convection somewhere between north-eastern Yucatan and the western tip of Cuba. I'd say the probability of development could increase to 30% tonight.



Considerable improvement over even a couple of hours ago. You may be right.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Link got removed for some reason. Floater Page is still active.


Thank you for the link.
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Never mind then about the ssd site.
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I just finished a new blog post on Invest 91L for those interested:

Link
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Quoting hydrus:
wow. I guess the latest gfs takes it into the central gulf then brought it back towards the big bend area based on those rainfall totals.

Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3620
I see people are worshiping the "all-knowing" models again this year. I used to be one of those people, but the models never really nail down the storms completely. Models are just a meteorology tool that tell where the storms could forms and where it'll go based on the patterns around it. It's the patterns that the meteorologists use to forecast where the storms are going and how strong it'll get using other data like SST, shear, energy in ocean, etc. That's what models are useful. They can't do everything, so we got to use it as a tool to determine what the storm is going to do.


(Yes, English is messy but you get my point.)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
Quoting PedleyCA:


Ya gonna Share????
Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Kind of reminds me of how Stormtrack used to be, in a way.

They even mention the shapefiles I provide and the GR software repository I worked up (based on one I did internally for the NWS). Nifty. I rarely ever hear anything about about these things nor do I find out that they are used that much.

Speaking of your shapefile, I tried to load it last night but couldn't because it didn't include a .sty file. Any idea what to do about that?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Invest 91l is gone off the ssd site.


It doesn't mean anything, it's still up on the NRL site.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
I find this interesting. Look at the strength and position of the low over the U.S.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi nrt. What happened with the SSD Floater that doesn't have 91L?


Link got removed for some reason. Floater Page is still active.
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Still looks better than Danny..

Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting hydrus:


Ya gonna Share????
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Quoting SLU:
91L has certainly become better organised today. Latest satellite pictures indicate that a new low is trying to form near the deep convection somewhere between north-eastern Yucatan and the western tip of Cuba. I'd say the probability of development could increase to 30% tonight.

Nice spin.
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Ok. I guess I quoted your post because of some of the information in it. That brings about the next question... where was the information being posted?
TA13 posted it on here, in which he got it from AmericanWx forums. Went there to see myself and it was there.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
Quoting SLU:
91L has certainly become better organised today. Latest Satellite pictures indicate that a new low is trying to form near the keep convection somewhere between north-eastern Yucatan and the western tip of Cuba. I'd say the probability of development could increase t0 30% tonight.

Invest 91l is gone off the ssd site.
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pretty wet in SEFL...18" of rain in may and already 3.11" in June (including 1.11" today)... not looking forward to 91L this week. West Boynton Beach, FL
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554. SLU
91L has certainly become better organised today. Latest satellite pictures indicate that a new low is trying to form near the deep convection somewhere between north-eastern Yucatan and the western tip of Cuba. I'd say the probability of development could increase to 30% tonight.

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi nrt. What happened with the SSD Floater that doesn't have 91L?
I don't know.
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Sorry but you don't beat the "terror" of TS Jose in 2011.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
Hi nrt. What happened with the SSD Floater that doesn't have 91L?
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Quoting RTSplayer:


"Major Hurricane" is a misleading term.

More people died in Sandy than in Andrew.
If Sandy was a Major Hurricane hitting the same area, deaths would've been higher. Just saying.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007



Falling pressure in the area
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Quoting hurricanes2018:
new map!


What the Hell is PCCD?
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Quoting Andrebrooks:
That's Patty from last year or Bret from 2011.
That is awfulterribad Danny from 2009..a look that is not to be confused with any other T.C..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.