Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC brought out the red crayon sooner than later. Maybe at 2. The more hours that tick by the more probable it becomes that a TD will be called within the next 48 hours. I'd put the odds at 50% at least at 2 this morning.
. I'd be surprised if our storm to be goes another 48 hours after 2 before being called, especially considering the location it's in. I already see what appears to be the broad center around 22,88.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5458
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
#672 Satellite view makes it look like its raining all over Florida.....my buddy in Estero in SW Florida told me he has recieved less than 1/10 inch. On some of the west coast radars it looks like a lot of rain is evaporating before reaching the west coast. Would dry air cause that? How can ya have dry air with PW of 2.2-2.8"?
Here in Naples, it's been insanely muggy and completely cloudy, but we've officially only received barely half an inch for the first three days of the month so far, meaning that we're already below normal for the month. That may change over the next few days, but we'll see. I suppose most of the peninsula will share in the we(al)t(h), but I suspect the bulk of the rainfall will be north and east of my location.
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I hope this is the future of radar...RaxPol imagery of the El Reno, OK tornado from May 31:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
#672 Satellite view makes it look like its raining all over Florida.....my buddy in Estero in SW Florida told me he has recieved less than 1/10 inch. On some of the west coast radars it looks like a lot of rain is evaporating before reaching the west coast. Would dry air cause that? How can ya have dry air with PW of 2.2-2.8"?
also, I think you are looking at the IR satellite and confusing cloud temperatures for falling precipitation. The orange color over Florida just means we have a thick deck of stratus and cumulus over the state, few of which are producing precip that reaches the ground. Hope that helps :)
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3616
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
#672 Satellite view makes it look like its raining all over Florida.....my buddy in Estero in SW Florida told me he has recieved less than 1/10 inch. On some of the west coast radars it looks like a lot of rain is evaporating before reaching the west coast. Would dry air cause that? How can ya have dry air with PW of 2.2-2.8"?
just due to a lack of forcing now that the sun is down. It'll be back tomorrow as even moister air moves in
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3616
Not saying that this thing will Develop into a Tropical Cyclone, but there is no reason to downplay it due to it's looks.
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Quoting GetReal:



This is a "one-sided" system that will be battling dry air to the north and west, and westerly shear for nearly the entire time it will be in the GOM. I do not expect much more than a TD, at best.

Though Debby was expected to overcome this, She got named, and amounted to about as much as this one is expected to.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
L, 91, 2013060312, , BEST, 0, 219N, 880W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 91, 2013060318, , BEST, 0, 224N, 878W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 91, 2013060400, , BEST, 0, 228N, 876W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 225, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Hey Nea. :)
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
This is Debbie all over again... Looks so similar.

Talked to Cybrted about that a while back ;)
-HurricaneDean07
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#672 Satellite view makes it look like its raining all over Florida.....my buddy in Estero in SW Florida told me he has recieved less than 1/10 inch. On some of the west coast radars it looks like a lot of rain is evaporating before reaching the west coast. Would dry air cause that? How can ya have dry air with PW of 2.2-2.8"?
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

Download the style file (.sty) from the page with the map menu where you got the shapefile.
Are the roads shapefile only for central USA or the whole USA?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7459
Quoting GetReal:



This is a "one-sided" system that will be battling dry air to the north and west, and westerly shear for nearly the entire time it will be in the GOM. I do not expect much more than a TD, at best.
I would agree but if Debby could get name this one I believe could get name two.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
L, 91, 2013060312, , BEST, 0, 219N, 880W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 91, 2013060318, , BEST, 0, 224N, 878W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 91, 2013060400, , BEST, 0, 228N, 876W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Consistent pressure drop, as well as getting closer to the convection
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
It coming to S FL Toning!
Wow!! that is some very nasty weather for us tonite!!!,I was listening in the weather station in my car this afternoon it was saying that we should expect heavy rain after 12 midnight,so maybe they were right with the timing!!.
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My internet is going buggy with this page, going on Weather Chat if anyone wants to join me for a bit.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
L, 91, 2013060312, , BEST, 0, 219N, 880W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 91, 2013060318, , BEST, 0, 224N, 878W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 91, 2013060400, , BEST, 0, 228N, 876W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 225, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

I saw your post from yesterday, just hadnt come up with a good answer. Not because there isn't one, but because I need to think about it more.

For starters, we can't just take the velocity from radar and make firm conclusions about what is going on at the surface. We can make rough correlations sometimes, but we have to be careful extrapolating beyond that, especially as radar centerline height increases. Of course shear is going to tell you that you have winds going in opposite directions, which is more relevant to rotation. Just straight velocity is more relevant to straight-line winds. Shear is the best way to visualize rotation with radar because we can't see in 2 dimensions, just 1 dimension (inbound and outbound).

In most tornadoes, we don't have anything near the signatures we've had in the last week or two. Many times it's just two pixels next to one another with opposing winds (gate-to-gate shear).
Okay. So this confirms what I was thinking. I see shear's application for identifying rotation, I just don't know why people bother trying to use it to estimate strength of tornado...a better practice would be to look at the maximum velocity (whether it be inbound or outbound).

Obviously, this isn't very accurate, as you mentioned, because it isn't measuring surface winds, it's measuring the mean velocity of whatever happens to be in the air across the beam's swath.
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This is a "one-sided" system that will be battling dry air to the north and west, and westerly shear for nearly the entire time it will be in the GOM. I do not expect much more than a TD, at best.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
No I haven't :).But I probably should or else he'll come back for revenge.Lol.Thanks I have to keep my record of the best avi's on the sight up.Can't let no one surpass me.
Hahaha you are really cool.
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Anyone else think this is going to be a 40-50mph Tropical Storm with the best circumstances?
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Quoting hydrus:


At least in this Graphic, it seems like the Low will be kicked NE Towards the N Of Tampa and the bulk of the rainfall will sheared to the east.
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19521
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19521
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Speaking of your shapefile, I tried to load it last night but couldn't because it didn't include a .sty file. Any idea what to do about that?

Download the style file (.sty) from the page with the map menu where you got the shapefile.
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I just did a short blog update on 91L if you're interested. Link

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Quoting TomTaylor:
Scott, what is with the convention of using shear for determining tornado strength? Why don't we just look at the maximum velocity?

I saw your post from yesterday, just hadnt come up with a good answer. Not because there isn't one, but because I need to think about it more.

For starters, we can't just take the velocity from radar and make firm conclusions about what is going on at the surface. We can make rough correlations sometimes, but we have to be careful extrapolating beyond that, especially as radar centerline height increases. Of course shear is going to tell you that you have winds going in opposite directions, which is more relevant to rotation. Just straight velocity is more relevant to straight-line winds. Shear is the best way to visualize rotation with radar because we can't see in 2 dimensions, just 1 dimension (inbound and outbound).

In most tornadoes, we don't have anything near the signatures we've had in the last week or two. Many times it's just two pixels next to one another with opposing winds (gate-to-gate shear).
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A trip down memory lane

From Debby Discussion Number 8 (2012/06/25)
THE CYCLONE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.


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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Do we have a new blog? It is not showing...thought I saw a new Dr Masters blog?

Nope, still the same blog.

Quoting WxGeekVA:
This is Debbie all over again... Looks so similar.

I agree, it looks too similar.
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Do we have a new blog? It is not showing...thought I saw a new Dr Masters blog?
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19521
It coming to S FL Toning!
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Wondering is all that bad weather showing in the radar moving East coming to South Florida tonight?,very nasty stuff in the Florida straight.
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First real system of the season to track! :)

(click to enlarge)
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I did this for all of you! Looks so similar.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Wondering is all that bad weather showing in the radar moving East coming to South Florida tonight?,very nasty stuff in the Florida straight.
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With 91L moving at the epic speed of just 2 mph, it would take nearly 36 hours for it to move just one degree of latitude.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1501


I think a point of landfall in Central Florida is quite likely. However if the center forms to the west, or toward the East, track may be greatly affected by weak or more stronger steering.
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This is Debbie all over again... Looks so similar.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

Kind of reminds me of how Stormtrack used to be, in a way.

They even mention the shapefiles I provide and the GR software repository I worked up (based on one I did internally for the NWS). Nifty. I rarely ever hear anything about about these things nor do I find out that they are used that much.
Scott, what is with the convention of using shear for determining tornado strength? Why don't we just look at the maximum velocity?
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We will have to see if it comes true but the 7 day QPF has a lot of rain predicted for Southern Vermont. I've had a bit under 4" these past two weeks and with 4" in the 7 day, it will be interesting to see what happens. Let us not forget what Irene did to my state. Yes, the rivers are wider but there are still many washouts and banks that can be undermined and people refilled land that was washed away and created many pinch points on the rivers. So, wait and see I guess. It's been a while since a really big rain event up here, well, Irene.
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Quoting allancalderini:
You haven`t surpass your hate toward Danny right washi?You really hate him XD btw I love your new pro pic.
No I haven't :).But I probably should or else he'll come back for revenge.Lol.Thanks I have to keep my record of the best avi's on the sight up.Can't let no one surpass me.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
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91L should bloom some during DMAX.
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NHC upped the chance of development to 30%, orange.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1501
Hello,

I think the Models have become very bullish on the Trajectory of this system, the more it sits off the Yucatan the more likelihood it will be booted NNE Or NE.

Initially the models had it going over South Florida, and had 20 inches of rain, prior to that it had it going east over Cuba and over the Bahamas.


I just don't see this system making it as far north in the Gulf as Pensacola.

A landfall somewhere in the Big Bend region or Tampa region looks plausible. However, I'm going to have to disagree with the CMC and state that this will become a weak Tropical Storm at best, and have convection placed on the East side as typical sheared system.

Now as in the case of the effects of this System on Florida, this is not going to be a significant weather event. However the Atmosphere may be conducive for tornados, Sometimes the side effects of these weak systems are worse than the system themselves.



Key West is about to get hammered.

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Quoting hydrus:
It is my opinion that this system will be a bit stronger than forecast.
I agree. It looks ugly now, however conditions will become more favorable over the next 72 hours.I think dry air will be its biggest challenge.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
That is awfulterribad Danny from 2009..a look that is not to be confused with any other T.C..
Quoting washingtonian115:
That is awfulterribad Danny from 2009..a look that is not to be confused with any other T.C..
You haven`t surpass your hate toward Danny right washi?You really hate him XD btw I love your new pro pic.
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

Invest 91L


Early Stages of Debby(2012)


The process of formation is nearly identical.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
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Been listening to their serenade (ALL NIGHT) for the last three days here in the Keys; 3-4 days to go perhaps
Link

Here comes the next wave of rain from Cuba. sigh.
Link

8>)

91L, I'm guessing doesn't get a name. Lot's of elongation projected in the coc in the main mods. Nevertheless, a few miles west or east of projected tracks will make a big difference in the FL Keys ... and elsewhere. - take care. Da frogs are about to sing again!

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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