Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Can some post the RBTOP floater loop for 91L? God, I swear I see spinning by Cuba.
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Anyone in Key West right now?

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ033-035-044-054-040245-
/O.NEW.KKEY.MA.W.0122.130604T0143Z-130604T0245Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
943 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
HAWK CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM...
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT AND
BEYOND 5 FATHOMS...
GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO 5 FATHOMS...

* UNTIL 1045 PM EDT

* AT 941 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS OVER PELICAN
SHOAL...MOVING NORTH AT 15 KNOTS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

VANDENBERG...
WESTERN SAMBO...
PELICAN SHOAL...
AMERICAN SHOAL LIGHT...
NINEFOOT SHOAL...
CUDJOE BAY...

BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR NOW...AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL
THREATENING WEATHER HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 2428 8182 2476 8183 2481 8144 2474 8143
2474 8142 2473 8143 2468 8143 2468 8142
2467 8143 2466 8142 2465 8142 2432 8139
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 182DEG 16KT 2442 8161

$$
JOHNSON

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Oh, I hope Andrea isn't underweigh soon. I made my prediction for the first named storm to be in July.

My guess is for Mid-Later June... So. Yikes...

Personel Outlook for June
First week: Moderate Risk for Tropical Cyclone
Second week: Low Risk for Tropical Cyclone
Third week: Low Risk for Tropical Cyclone
Fourth week: Moderate Risk for Tropical Cyclone
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Evenin' Ya'll.......Euro interesting @96h...
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Quoting Tornado6042008X:
Okay I know that this is not related to 91L but I haven't watched The Weather Channel since Friday and I am curious to know whether Mike Bettes is still in the hospital?
 
Where ever he is I hope he is in good health.
I'm sure he's out. He have tweeted since the incident.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7453
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Okay :) Just saying don't get too ahead by saying Andrea is underway, quite yet. We don't really know if this thing will make it that far yet.

the more I look the more I see a sheared mess. It could get named as a subtropical system since the criteria are looser. But it looks more like a rainmaker and not a windmaker to me.
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Hey Taz,

I'll share some rain for some sunshine, but I don't want the temps. OK
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Quoting stormchaser19:


For the folks that are giving percentages, here is the 00z model intensity chart, looks like Andrea is underway!

I'm not saying is sure!!!!
Where is the 00Z run.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 941
hey FL whats trad i give you my 113 heat and you send me all the rain and you can end up dry and hot


do we have a deal?


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
218 PM PDT MON JUN 3 2013

CAZ013>019-063-064-066>069-041200-
SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-
BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-MOTHERLODE-
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
218 PM PDT MON JUN 3 2013

...VERY HOT WEATHER FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER THIS
WEEK...

* SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT MANY LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

* DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 100 TO 113 IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND MAINLY IN THE 80S AND 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST
HIGHS MAY BE THE HIGHEST SEEN SINCE 2006.

* OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
91L Floater is back
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4871
Okay I know that this is not related to 91L but I haven't watched The Weather Channel since Friday and I am curious to know whether Mike Bettes is still in the hospital?
 
Where ever he is I hope he is in good health.
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Quoting stormchaser19:


For the folks that are giving percentages, here is the 00z model intensity chart, looks like Andrea is underway!

I'm not saying is sure!!!!

Okay :) Just saying don't get too ahead by saying Andrea is underway, quite yet. We don't really know if this thing will make it that far yet.
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734. skook
Image and video hosting by TinyPic


From the US National Weather Service Tampa Bay Florida facebook page.
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

Hold your horses. Intensity Models mean nothing until we have a developed Surface low with a closed surface circulation, we don't have a tropical cyclone yet


For the folks that are giving percentages, here is the 00z model intensity chart, looks like Andrea is underway!

I'm not saying is sure!!!!
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2130
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is there another circulation between Yucatan and Cuba?
No. I don't see it.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7453
I saw someone said no....looks like something spinning there.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hey Dean. ..your bpost there is very nice. Cool graphic.
t 702,

----

For those who missed it, uploaded the latest hurricane chartin my blog,, feel free to check it out

Thanks :)
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Quoting RTSplayer:
System is looking rather pathetic still.

It's also about to get absolutely blasted by more dry air coming in from the west.

Is been getting blasted by dry air since birth so i don't see a change.
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Is there another circulation between Yucatan and Cuba?
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Quoting stormchaser19:
For the folks that are giving percentages, here is the 00z model intensity chart, looks like Andrea is underway!!!

Hold your horses. Intensity Models mean nothing until we have a developed Surface low with a closed surface circulation, we don't have a tropical cyclone yet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey Dean. ..your bpost there is very nice. Cool graphic.
t 702,

----

For those who missed it, uploaded the latest hurricane chartin my blog,, feel free to check it out
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Quoting Chicklit:

A lot of moisture and rainfall for Florida...
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For the folks that are giving percentages, here is the 00z model intensity chart, looks like Andrea is underway!!!
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2130
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Chicklit I know it's not but it looks like a front more than a tropical system. Hopefully it won't get a name because I guessed the first named storm wouldn't happen until July.

Debby all over again. Shear Trough of low pressure. Though it has organized, it will look like this for, pretty much, all of its life. So yeah, about a 50/50 shot of it becoming a Tropical Cyclone.
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Chicklit I know it's not but it looks like a front more than a tropical system. Hopefully it won't get a name because I guessed the first named storm wouldn't happen until July.
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Making a new blog for 91L tomorrow :)
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Quoting Andrebrooks:
it looks like the center is that swirl by Cuba.
It's not by Cuba. It's north of Cancun.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7453
it looks like the center is that swirl by Cuba.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 941
First post of 2013. I'm in Ormond by the Sea right on the NE coast of Florida. We had that huge T-storm complex move from W to E at dusk with some insane lightning, high winds, zero vis and 2 power outages. Still a pretty good lightning show off the coast and I guess more to come tomorrow.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
also, I think you are looking at the IR satellite and confusing cloud temperatures for falling precipitation. The orange color over Florida just means we have a thick deck of stratus and cumulus over the state, few of which are producing precip that reaches the ground. Hope that helps :)


Thanks a lot, yes it does.
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System is looking rather pathetic still.

It's also about to get absolutely blasted by more dry air coming in from the west.

Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1499
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714. skook

Link
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
I give Invest 91L a 20% chance of developing...into a Tropical Depression.


NHC thinks higher than that within the 48 hour timeframe.
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Florida prepares for....



BARBAREMNANTS....

; )
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Levi, if you are on..is there anyway you can make your total precip map go out longer than 192 Hours for the GFS?
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Hey Everyone..long day here..

JMA Model



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Quoting TylerStanfield:

lol Trough
Thank you :) Great graphics!
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7453
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Wish I've seen it before you left chat. This is pretty awesome! What are the blue curve over USA? Shockwaves?

lol Trough
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Quoting TylerStanfield:
Invest 91L Outlook
Wish I've seen it before you left chat. This is pretty awesome! What are the blue curve over USA? Shockwaves?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7453
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19504
Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Anyone else think this is going to be a 40-50mph Tropical Storm with the best circumstances?
It is possible. The CRAS model has this system pushing alot of moisture into the south east U.S.img src="http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/U S/gfsUS_500_avort_168.gif">
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19504
Invest 91L Outlook
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I give Invest 91L a 20% chance of developing...into a Tropical Depression.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

Just sites with the text identifiers have shapefiles created. Those shapefiles as a whole cover the area in green. It doesn't cover the whole US, as it is not a trivial process to create these files (although I've sped it up quite a bit in recent years).

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~slincoln/GRS/shape files/
Oh alright. Thanks for answering!
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7453
Evening, it's been raining here a little north of the space coast for a few hours. More to come.
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
808 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY REACH 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

A SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP WITHIN AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCE A PERSISTENT FEED OF TORRENTIAL RAIN OR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY MATERIALIZE SHOULD A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOP WEST OF THE STATE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES AS WELL AS ANY FLOODING.

$$

PENDERGRAST/MOSES
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Are the roads shapefile only for central USA or the whole USA?

Just sites with the text identifiers have shapefiles created. Those shapefiles as a whole cover the area in green. It doesn't cover the whole US, as it is not a trivial process to create these files (although I've sped it up quite a bit in recent years).

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~slincoln/GRS/shape files/
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 2870
I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC brought out the red crayon sooner than later. Maybe at 2. The more hours that tick by the more probable it becomes that a TD will be called within the next 48 hours. I'd put the odds at 50% at least at 2 this morning.
. I'd be surprised if our storm to be goes another 48 hours after 2 before being called, especially considering the location it's in. I already see what appears to be the broad center around 22,88.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.