Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just know from a meteorologist from other forum that DOW measured 115+ m/s.

That's really fast. That's >260 mi/h once you get through the conversions.
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Quoting Dakster:


Don't forget the Metamucil and depends...


OUCH! I haven't even gone there with Gro! Afraid he might have a senile senior moment and beat me with his walker!
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omg!!! florida atlantic just hit a grand slam! to go to super regionals while UNC lead 6-4! WOW Monday Madness!
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794. DDR
Quoting nigel20:

Hey DDR!
Yeah, you can see the drier air on the SAL map behind the eastern Carib tropical wave.

I'm currently in central Jamaica (Manchester) and we've been having intermittent showers since Saturday! The weather in Manchester is completely different from the rest of Jamaica. It was given the name due to the similar weather pattern to that of Manchester, England...cool in the winter and wet and cloudy in the spring and summer months.

Very interesting,thanks for the info Nigel
.I just google maped that location.
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A little red storm in the last frames appeared near the rotation...over water in Yucatan Straits.
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For those trying to pinpoint 91L on satellite... Low Level Circulation is around 23.2 N and 87.9 W
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Pacers 70-92 Heat - 3:30 remaining, 4th quarter

21 points and 9 rebounds from Dwyane Wade. Not a bad game from him, the Heat will need more like that when they find themselves up against San Antonio.
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Good night everyone. Guess I'll have my new blog tomorrow whenever I try to type it up....
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j2008 - The odds are with you, in your statement. No need for crow eating. There will be plenty of that going on later though.
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Let me look at it again
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30%? Man, that's really getting bullish now. ;) We have a small, weak rotating surface low with no convection over it in a highly sheared, dry-air environment. Puuulleeeaze!

Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29596
786. j2008
Don't want to be a downer but my personal intuition tells me this isn't going to even become a storm, looks and has looked like a sheared mess. My guess is that perhaps if the dry air subsides that this will become a TD at best..... but I'll have a plate of crow out just in case this mess decides to get its act together in the next couple days.
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Quoting PedleyCA:
Past my Bedtime - Stay Safe - Stay Dry - Stay Warm - Hang Loose


Don't forget the Metamucil and depends...
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I am sure I am late (was at work) but seems NHC has a little more confidence in it as it has an orange 30% now! Things are warming up a bit.
I am truly curious if any of these precipitation forecasts for east central FL come to fruition. For those of you much more "weather smart" than me any thoughts? TIA
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Quoting TylerStanfield:
Officially mad. I was almost completely done with my new blog. and what does my stupid computer do? FREEZE THE BROWSER AND RESTART IT. Lost everything. I quit.


Keep Calm and Carry on.
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Quoting TylerStanfield:
Officially mad. I was almost completely done with my new blog. and what does my stupid computer do? FREEZE THE BROWSER AND RESTART IT. Lost everything. I quit.
Happened to me couple of time this month when I lost the blog close to completing it. I started to use Word and never lost it since.
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Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Can anyone see my posts?


No.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I see it. It's on an axis halfway between Tierra del Fuego and Cozumel. To me it looks like a mid level rotation probably produced by the latest blowup of convection. It'll move off to the ENE and dissipate
Maybe there is little spin but I doubt it's another low fighting the main low.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
And I swear to God, I am not wishing it to be near Cuba...honest........lolololol


Are you talking about the break in the clouds that is almost touching the extreme western end of cuba??
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Past my Bedtime - Stay Safe - Stay Dry - Stay Warm - Hang Loose
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
Officially mad. I was almost completely done with my new blog. and what does my stupid computer do? FREEZE THE BROWSER AND RESTART IT. Lost everything. I quit.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
And I swear to God, I am not wishing it to be near Cuba...honest........lolololol


Looks like some spin to me too. But I'm old and blind as well.....lol
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
Quoting PedleyCA:


Yes


Lol Thanks, I feel invisible sometimes. Well anyways, the outer fringe of 91L is now approaching parts of Florida.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:


I still can't see it.

I see it. It's on an axis halfway between Tierra del Fuego and Cozumel. To me it looks like a mid level rotation probably produced by the latest blowup of convection. It'll move off to the ENE and dissipate
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Quoting canehater1:
Circulation with 91-L seems to be in mid levels ...with shear in place and in forecast
will be hard for anything to develop beyond
a weak TS....

Actually there is a Broad Low Level center that is attempting to become better defined north of the Yucatan... Well displaced from the Convection.
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And I swear to God, I am not wishing it to be near Cuba...honest........lolololol
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who wants to go the tropics chat room with me.
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Man, the blog is going slow for me!...that loop ya posted isn't even moving......lolololol
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Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Can anyone see my posts?



Yes
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Any new information about the DOW data on the El Reno tornado the other night. When will the data be released?
Just know from a meteorologist from other forum that DOW measured 115+ m/s.
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Circulation with 91-L seems to be in mid levels ...with shear in place and in forecast
will be hard for anything to develop beyond
a weak TS....
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Quoting Bluestorm5:


I still can't see it.

I did full speed.....on the loop, but then again I am getting up there with Gro!
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Can anyone see my posts?

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Any new information about the DOW data on the El Reno tornado the other night. When will the data be released?
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Quoting Dakster:


I want irrefutable proof of that.


LOLOLOL I plead the 5th
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TA is our tweet analyst.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
And no pharmaceutical products involved in my observations!


I want irrefutable proof of that.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:


I still can't see it.



I was raised near Elizabeth City. How bout you?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What is the tweet to twit ratio for each hour?
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Can some post the RBTOP floater loop for 91L? God, I swear I see spinning by Cuba.


I still can't see it.

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And no pharmaceutical products involved in my observations!
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I can't remember if my prediction on trHUrrIXC5MMX's blog was for July 9th or 10th for the first named storm. But I think it was for July 10th.
Why not June.
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There will be probably a special tropical weather outlook coming up very soon.
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I can't remember if my prediction on trHUrrIXC5MMX's blog was for July 9th or 10th for the first named storm. But I think it was for July 10th.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Can some post the RBTOP floater loop for 91L? God, I swear I see spinning by Cuba.


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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Can some post the RBTOP floater loop for 91L? God, I swear I see spinning by Cuba.




are you too lazy too go there your own ???


Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114779
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Can some post the RBTOP floater loop for 91L? God, I swear I see spinning by Cuba.
I saw the same thing.
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Can some post the RBTOP floater loop for 91L? God, I swear I see spinning by Cuba.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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