Invest 91L Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2013

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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and we already have a threat to discuss. A trough of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and is dumping heavy rains over the area. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has contributed moisture to this disturbance, which has been designated 91L by NHC. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, over the next five days, so any development should be slow to occur. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.

Jeff Masters

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1247. marsHen
water temperatures in suwannee sound, approaching 30C, 86F. very high new moon tide at noon today in cedar key so if we get 2-3 ft. more from storm, causeway might flood.
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1246. Buhdog
feeling very tropical here in Southwest Florida. Been lurking.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Where does that supposed storm in the central atlantic come from?.Interesting enough the shear model (although not to be trusted more than 2 days out) shows favorable shear.
What do mean favorable shear.
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I don't want people to get too excited about 91L. But a spectacular analog to 91L would be Tropical Storm Barry in 2007. Barry developed and moved slowly along and near the Yucatan Peninsula. It developed fairly slowly and then took off and became a 60 MPH Tropical Storm and quickly slammed into and just north of Tampa while producing a little bit rain all the way up the 95 corridor. It developed in the face of heavy shear. I think 91L is a pretty good canindate for a Barry wannabeLink
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Here in Southeast Georgia it DOES get awefully hot to me. It's the humidity of course. And we DO need rain. Maybe Atlanta doesn't, but we do.
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Hear the latest on the one buoy actually located in the Southern half of the convective ball off the Yucatan:

Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.802N 84.857W
Date: Tue, 4 Jun 2013 13:50:00 UTC

Winds: SE (140°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (112°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and rising
Air Temperature: 82.9 F
Dew Point: 78.4 F
Water Temperature: 82.8 F

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Quoting Luisport:
16.00 Clock: The current water levels


Dresden - Elbe: 767 cm, and rising

Meissen - Elbe: 836 cm, and rising

Magdeburg - Elbe: 479 cm, and rising

Passau - Danube 1061 cm, Trend steady

Regensburg - Danube: 682 cm, Trend steady

Halle-Trotha - count: 773 cm, Trend steady


We don't know what to make of that without a reference for flood stages and home/business elevations at those locations.
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1240. 7544
nice big red ball now with 91L still think it will be further south in the comin model runs imo

and welcome back largo !
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Im cool with that, longer warm days... unlike NYC.

Im my case when temps go above 95F my body doesn't work well...I just can't take that.


Well that'll happen a few times w humidity.
Just be ready for the occasional 70s in december or january.
And maybe you'll bring some snow luck with you.
It's been a while.
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1238. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting mikatnight:
#1091 -

You are so far over my head...

Somebody...help!


New damage benchmarks are reached when the "Power" (physics unit) of the wind over comes the strength of the objects being affected by the wind: Trees, fences, different types of residential, commercial and industrial buildings, etc. Each of these have vastly different strengths, and occur in vastly different amounts.

This is why the real curve should not follow a continuous 8th power curve. There are far more mobile homes and conventional "stick" houses than there are commercial and industrial buildings.

Once you pass the breaking strength of a slab house's roof, there is not much more threshold for damage until you reach total structural collapse.

If you blow down half the walls in a house, it will be condemned anyway, and will need to be rebuild from the foundation up, so a storm 5 or 10mph stronger wiping the slab clean doesn't actually do more economic damage, since the net loss is the same either way.

Replacing a roof might cost you $15k to $30k or so, depending on how steep the roof is and how big the house is. Replacing the entire house is a couple hundred thousand. But then once you get above the point where total structural failure occurs, there is nothing remaining to be destroyed, so damage doesn't go up any more, re: asymptote.

From Wikipedia.

Top 20 costliest atlantic hurricanes (in U.S. dollars).

Costliest Atlantic hurricanes
Billions Name Year References
$108.0 Hurricane Katrina 2005 [1]
$50.0 Hurricane Sandy 2012 [2][3]
$37.5 Hurricane Ike 2008 [4][5][6]
$29.2 Hurricane Wilma 2005 [7][8][9][10]
$26.5 Hurricane Andrew 1992 [11]
$23.0 Hurricane Ivan 2004 [4][12][13]
$16.6 Hurricane Irene 2011 [14][15][16]
$16.0 Hurricane Charley 2004 [4][13]
$12.0 Hurricane Rita 2005 [17]
$10.2 Hurricane Gilbert 1988 [18]
$9.7 Hurricane Georges 1998 [4][19][20][21][22][23]
$9.5 Hurricane Frances 2004 [4]
$9.0 Tropical Storm Allison 2001 [4]
$8.6 Hurricane Jeanne 2004 [4][13][24][25]
$8.5 Hurricane Hugo 1989 [4][26]
$8.2 Hurricane Mitch 1998 [27][28][29][30][31]
$6.9 Hurricane Floyd 1999 [4]
$6.6 Hurricane Gustav 2008 [4][5]
$5.4 Hurricane Isabel 2003 [4]
$5.1 Hurricane Opal 1995 [4]


Ironically, half the category 4 landfalls aren't even in the top 10.

Of these, if I remember right, Andrew is the only one which made landfall as a category 5 storm, but it's damage is doubled by category 1 Sandy, and quadrupled by category 3(official) Katrina.

All of the top 5 were fast movers on the U.S. landfalls, so issues like inland rainfall were not skewed by forward movement speeds. Thus they are good examples of the damage potential of a storm of a given category. Of these top 5 storms, the 165mph landfalling Andrew did the least damage, even though it hit the most heavily populated location.
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

If it gets any further, it will most likely dissipate and a new low will form closer to the convection.
-HurricaneDean07



why the new name?
Is that your name?
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Published on Jun 3, 2013

May 31st El Reno Oklahoma tornado with Tempest Tours.

We were at this site for about 10 minutes prior to the tornado. The new mesocyclone/lowered base to the east of the initial base appeared very quickly and then moved south southeast towards with "egg beater" multiple vortices, forcing us to quickly head south out of danger.

GoPro Hero 2 footage shot from front windshield. GoPro Hero 1 footage shot from exterior windshield pointing backwards.




they almost got caught too.

That southward loop then northward turn of the tornado was certainly a tricky situation.
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Quoting RidingTheStormOut:
Hi Folks, another season upon us. I am looking forward to Dr. Master's discussions, Thanks Doc. Looking forward to the wonderful insight provided by the WU members. Thanks Members. Good to be here again. Praying and hoping for a safe season. Thanks, Bob
You can read my blog under hurricane season 2013.
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Hi Folks, another season upon us. I am looking forward to Dr. Master's discussions, Thanks Doc. Looking forward to the wonderful insight provided by the WU members. Thanks Members. Good to be here again. Praying and hoping for a safe season. Thanks, Bob
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Wow the LLC is so far from the convection.....(at least I think that's the LLC north of the yucatan)


If it gets any further, it will most likely dissipate and a new low will form closer to the convection.
-HurricaneDean07
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 1409
Looks like the shear is toasted.
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1229. hydrus
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Quoting LargoFl:
well by me, except for a great downpour for a half hour last week I havent had much rain, maybe a slight sprinkle here and there..local met says possibly 6 inches in the coming days..we'll see what happens..usually these storms coming up the coast tend to push their rains inland going right over me,hopefully not this time..right now just overcast, no rain here yet..local met says wens,thurs are the days to watch..
Welcome back LargoFl,we started this 2013 Hurricane Season with potential a lot!!! of rain for our Estate and potential for tropical development.
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I know this is going to be greatly expanded but for now...



edit... I might try to work out a map for this by the evening...
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16.28 Clock: Along the same are packed sandbags


In the north there is growing concern about a new record flood. Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern expected for the weekend, and possibly only start of the week with the highest water levels. Along the Elbe are packed sandbags.

Morning meet representatives of the state government and the affected counties to a first crisis meeting in Lower Saxony Bleckede.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


actually Ga doesnt get that hot...

record high is 106 in atl in 2012

esp in humid areas near the coast in the midatlantic or in the hot areas of the central plains, it gets and feels way hotter.

here it just stays warmer longer but its not bad at all.


Im cool with that, longer warm days... unlike NYC.

Im my case when temps go above 95F my body doesn't work well...I just can't take that.
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Where does that supposed storm in the central atlantic come from?.Interesting enough the shear model (although not to be trusted more than 2 days out) shows favorable shear.
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16.00 Clock: The current water levels


Dresden - Elbe: 767 cm, and rising

Meissen - Elbe: 836 cm, and rising

Magdeburg - Elbe: 479 cm, and rising

Passau - Danube 1061 cm, Trend steady

Regensburg - Danube: 682 cm, Trend steady

Halle-Trotha - count: 773 cm, Trend steady
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Naked Swirl beginning to get some convection around it.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
It was a cool morning here in D.C..the weather does get into the lower to mid 80's later on in the week with added muggy conditions.But after 2012 I'm sure everyone is use to the heat.


yeah, thanks.
I was told about 91F recorded in my town north of NYC... heck?
It was wrong btw!
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Who lives in the Mid-Atlantic, NE area?

Hows the weather there, people tell me by facebook it gets hotter there and in the south.


actually Ga doesnt get that hot...

record high is 106 in atl in 2012

esp in humid areas near the coast in the midatlantic or in the hot areas of the central plains, it gets and feels way hotter.

here it just stays warmer longer but its not bad at all.
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Quoting LargoFl:
well lets see what the 12 pm update says.............
Welcome back to the blog LargoFL. Ready for the potential rainfall threat?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
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Quoting FOREX:


Isn't Bastardi the CMC of Meteorologists?
Quoting VR46L:


Yep its in the centre of the Gulf According to Tropical Atlantic

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Tuesday, Jun. 4, 2013 12:00 Z

Location at the time:
395 statue miles (636 km) to the S (173°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

Wind (1 min. avg.):
25 knots (~29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)

Pressure:
1009 mb (29.80 inHg | 1009 hPa)

Coordinates:
24.3N 89.3W

Source:
National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System and not from any available advisory data



I agree with the coordinates.

However, it is very bad news for development, as the storms are all so far away from the circulation.

Perhaps if the circulation gets totally ejected to the west, a new one would form under the convection, but that would take days to complete such a cycle with all the shear and dry air...
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Who lives in the Mid-Atlantic, NE area?

Hows the weather there, people tell me by facebook it gets hotter there and in the south.
It was a cool morning here in D.C..the weather does get into the lower to mid 80's later on in the week with added muggy conditions.But after 2012 I'm sure everyone is use to the heat.
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Who lives in the Mid-Atlantic, NE area?

Hows the weather there, people tell me by facebook it gets hotter there and in the south.
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Link


If you speed up the loop to max you can see rotation. Or am I completely missing something?
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.
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1210. LargoFl
well lets see what the 12 pm update says.............
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Quoting carolinabelle:
Thanks for the replies trHUrrIXC5MMX & washingtonian115 - Ike was definitely a strong one!


we are here for you (When I can in my case)... call me Max.
Wanna guess this hurricane season forecast numbers??? try it!, head to my blog to drop them off... over 125 did already.
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16.04 Clock: "Very, very serious situation"


On the Elbe in Lower Saxony for the weekend, a record-high water is expected. The authorities fear that the water levels might exceed that of the flood of the century in 2002. "We must be prepared for a very, very serious situation," said Environment Minister Stefan Wenzel (Green) in Hanover. "I expect that we must proclaim an emergency alert, even as a precaution to ensure that all people are in the right place at the right time."

After the situation on the Aller, Leine and Weser has eased the situation on the Elbe now threatens to become much more threatening than the floods of the past days in Lower Saxony, Wenzel said. When the same peaked, is unclear. This is expected between Thursday and Sunday.
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1206. barbamz
Wakeboarding in a flood (video on liveleak). No one should say Germans aren't cool and funny, sometimes at least, lol. (But of course, I'm not sure it's a German guy; however it is in Germany.).
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1205. LargoFl
well by me, except for a great downpour for a half hour last week I havent had much rain, maybe a slight sprinkle here and there..local met says possibly 6 inches in the coming days..we'll see what happens..usually these storms coming up the coast tend to push their rains inland going right over me,hopefully not this time..right now just overcast, no rain here yet..local met says wens,thurs are the days to watch..
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Thanks for the replies trHUrrIXC5MMX & washingtonian115 - Ike was definitely a strong one!
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All the lake levels in Atlanta look ready for summer, only a smidge over summer levels. Fantastic.
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All this storm has to do is survive for 2 days (48 Hours) in it's general location to enter somewhat favorable conditions. The shear is going to drop off a good bit which should help to limit the amount dry air being flushed into the system. Then we will see this storm get a name.

That is a big IF though, it has to survive until then, and it will have a bit of a rough time doing so.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Looks like 91L kicked that one out. Watch for another to develop under the convection.

And Good Morning to all


Another one is developing as we speak and moving north north east. It's broad located around 22-23n and 88w. It and the other center to the north west are rotating around each other at the moment. I believe once either they spin into each other or the northern one gets ejected out later today we'll finally get our development from this system as the shear appears to have fallen over the system to levels that would allow some development.

The only draw back is the dry air but since shears not blasting that into the system as bad with all the moisture to the east it can fight it. It appears the reason for the lowering of the shear is a developing upper level vort max near the cyclone as seen from the cimss maps. This could mean we'll see something more along the lines of a subtropical storm.
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Quoting newt3d:


The issue here is that we're not measuring the force generated by wind, we're measuring the monetary cost of a storm with that wind speed.

Storms with higher wind speed, in addition to having more wind force, also:

1. Have more storm surge
2. Can impact a larger area (mainly due to taking longer to dissipate).

Additionally, cost generally goes up when infrastructure is destroyed. It's easy to repair one damaged house. It's much harder if you need to avoid downed power lines, clear debris, build a road to that house, and bring all the food, water, and sanitation with you that will be required while you repair that house.
Isn't it the damage that they are measuring?
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Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #1119 - I will be absolutely amazed if we get anything like that much rainfall here in the Cape. For all the impressive rain Naples and points south/east have had, my location in Cape Coral has only had 1.5 inches in the last 5 days. Save for a really good soaking on Sunday, we've mostly just had sprinkles from the sky out of the Gulf low so far.


My six day rain total in Fort Myers along the Caloosahatchee is 3.06. Most of that came in a Friday late afternoon soaker (2.05). I'm with you that we will not see the 20+ inches the models have been throwing out.
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Initiation progged for around 16z...


@19z things start cranking up...



21z...


00z 6/5...



LOOP LINK
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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