Tornado Scientist Tim Samaras and Team Killed in Friday's El Reno, OK Tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:43 PM GMT on June 02, 2013

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Veteran tornado scientist Tim Samaras, his son, environmental photographer Paul Samaras, 24, and meteorologist Carl Young, 45, died while chasing Friday's EF-3 tornado in El Reno, Oklahoma. The tornado killed at least nine people, in total. "Thank you to everyone for the condolences. It truly is sad that we lost my great brother Tim and his great son, Paul," said the brother of Tim Samaras, Jim Samaras, on Tim's Facebook page. "They all unfortunately passed away but doing what they LOVED." Tim, his son Paul, and Carl Young were all featured chasers on the Discovery Channel’s series, Storm Chasers, and Tim was known throughout the chase community as a conscientious and safety-minded chaser. Carl Young, who holds a Masters degree in meteorology from the University of Nevada, joined Samaras in the field in 2003. According to his Discovery Channel biography, Young and Samaras chased over 125 tornadoes together: "Carl's finest moment came on June 11, 2004 near Storm Lake, Iowa. Working with Tim, they defied the odds and deployed their probes right in the path of a tornado. The six-camera video probe captured amazing footage from multiple angles while the sensor probe recorded data that revealed just how fast wind speeds are close to the ground."


Figure 1. TWC's Mike ‪Bettes‬ crew caught this image of the El Reno, Oklahoma tornado of May 31, 2013 before the tornado caught them and rolled their vehicle. The tornado killed tornado scientists/storm chasers Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras, and Carl Young.


Figure 2. Storm chasers in North Dakota aligned themselves to spell out "T S" in honor of Tim Samaras today. Image credit: spotternetwork.org.

Tornado science loses a pioneer
Tim Samaras had been a tornado scientist for over 25 years. He was the founder of TWISTEX, the Tactical Weather Instrumented Sampling in Tornadoes Experiment, a 2011 field experiment designed to help learn more about tornadoes and increase lead time for warnings, which resulted in many peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. One of Tim Samaras' most widely recognized contributions to tornado science is his placement of an aerodynamically-designed probe in the path of an EF-4 tornado near Manchester, South Dakota on June 24, 2003. The probe measured a world-record pressure fall of 100 mb over a 40 second period.

One of the publications from the TWISTEX program, "Near-Ground Pressure and Wind Measurements in Tornadoes" recounts this close call Tim had in a tornado in 2011: "As the storm approached, the crew noted that the supercell was moving more sharply to the right of its former course, placing them near the projected path of the low-level mesocyclone. The crew drove south on Highway 259, attempting to position south of the low-level mesocyclone before it crossed the highway. With considerable tree cover in this region hampering the visual observation of the storm's features, TWISTEX crews could not position south of the mesocyclone on Highway 259 before the mesocyclone reached this road. Thus, the two mobile mesonet stations, M2 and M3, had an unplanned tornado encounter with a developing tornadic circulation while the mesonet was traveling south on Highway 259."


Figure 3. One of Tim Samaras' most widely recognized contributions to tornado science is his placement of an aerodynamically-designed probe in the path of an EF-4 tornado near Manchester, South Dakota on June 24, 2003. The probe measured a world-record pressure fall of 100 mb over a 40 second period. See the NWS article and conference paper on the event. Thanks to wunderground member Scott Lincoln for this link.

A storm chasers' nightmare
Cars and tornadoes can prove a dangerous mix even for the world's most experienced storm chasers. Driving at high speeds though heavy rain, large hail, and high winds is hazardous. If one is lucky enough to chase down a tornado, even the most experienced chasers can find themselves in a serious life-threatening situation when unexpected events occur. The exact circumstances of the deaths of Tim Samaras and his team are not clear, but the El Reno tornado was an extremely dangerous one to chase. Tornadoes by their nature are unpredictable, and can change course unexpectedly, or pop up suddenly. It's particularly dangerous when a tornado is wrapped in rain, making it hard to see, or if a chaser is operating in a heavily populated area, where roads may suddenly become congested. All four of these conditions occurred Friday during the El Reno tornado. The El Reno tornado was wrapped in rain and difficult to see as it headed west towards Oklahoma City, and suddenly made a jog to the southeast as a Weather Channel team led by Mike Bettes was attempting to get in front of the storm, and the tornado lifted their vehicle off the ground, rolled it multiple times, and hurled it 200 yards into a nearby field. Austin Anderson was driving the Tornado Hunt vehicle, and suffered several broken bones and was hospitalized. Although Austin will have to undergo surgery in the next few days, doctors say he is expected to make a full recovery. StormChasingVideo.com storm chaser Brandon Sullivan and his chase partner Brett Wright got caught in the tornado northwest of Union City, OK and slammed with debris as the tornado hit a barn that exploded in front of them. Meteorologist Emily Sutton and storm chaser Kevin Josefy of local Oklahoma City TV station KFOR also had a very close call with the El Reno tornado Friday afternoon. They got too close to the tornado, and were forced to floor the car in reverse to escape flying debris. With branches of trees crashing around them, Sutton began feeling debris hitting her back, and realized that the rear windshield of the car must have gotten destroyed. Both were uninjured. Reed Timmer's armor-plated "Dominator" chase vehicle had its hood torn off by the tornado. Wunderground member Levi32 was out storm chasing during the El Reno Tornado, and got stuck in traffic on Highway 4 and couldn't move. "We looked up above the car and saw the wall cloud over top of us, with very quick rotation and rising scud indicating the updraft. We were definitely too close."


Video 1. Severe storm researcher and engineer Tim Samaras talks about his view on tornadoes and what remains to be understood in this interview posted on May 21, 2013.


Video 2. A tornado passes over one of Tim Samaras' specially designed six-camera video probes on June 11, 2004 near Storm Lake, Iowa.

Tornadoes and cars: a dangerous mix
A vehicle is about the worst place you can be in a tornado, as the tornado's winds can easily roll a car. (The only place less safe is probably a mobile home, as a tornado's winds can roll mobile homes almost as readily, and mobile homes don't come with seat belts and air bags.) At least five of the deaths in Friday's El Reno tornado occurred in vehicles. There was one local TV station that urged residents without underground shelters to get in their cars and "get south" in advance of the tornado that was approaching Oklahoma City, since chasers were reporting that the El Reno tornado may have been so strong that only an underground shelter would have provided adequate protection. This terrible piece of advice likely contributed to the incredible traffic jams that we saw on I-35, I-40, I-44, and other local roads Friday night. Thousands of cars were bumper-to-bumper on the roads as a dangerous tornado approached them. Had the El Reno tornado plowed directly down one of these car-choked interstates, the death toll could have easily exceeded 500. If you are located in a metro area and don't have an underground shelter, the best thing to do it to take shelter in an interior windowless room or hallway, with protective furniture over your body. Getting in a car and attempting to flee the tornado is the worst thing you can do in an urban area. You may not be able to see the tornado if it is dark or the tornado is wrapped in rain. You are likely to encounter hazardous winds, rain, and hail, run into unexpected traffic, or flooded or debris-blocked roads that will put you directly in the path of the tornado. Even without an underground shelter, most people will be able to survive a dangerous EF-4 tornado. Case in point: during the Mannsford, Oklahoma EF- 4 tornado of 1984, a packed church received a direct hit, and everyone in the church survived. The only fatality was a man who drove to the church to get his wife. It is often better to abandon your vehicle and take shelter in a ditch, if you are caught in a car during a tornado. However, if there is already flying debris in the air, leaving your car and exposing yourself to the debris in order to get to a ditch may be more hazardous than staying in your car. Furthermore, ditches are prone to flash floods. Four deaths during the El Reno tornado were from a family of seven that sheltered in a drainage ditch, and were washed into the Deep Fork River by a flash flood. Searchers are still looking for the other three bodies. A 2002 research paper, "UNSAFE AT ANY (WIND) SPEED? Testing the Stability of Motor Vehicles in Severe Winds" found that: "The stability and superior safety of being in a vehicle in severe winds, relative to occupying a mobile home or being outdoors, should be considered." Also, TWC's severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes, commented on the pros and cons of abandoning one's vehicle for a ditch in a 2009 blog post, "Tornado Safety - Cars Versus Ditches: A Controversy." His personal take on what he would do if his car was being overtaken by a tornado, and no sturdy buildings were nearby to take shelter in: "I can't see myself getting out of the vehicle. I'd try first to drive away from the tornado. Both the NWS and the American Red Cross actually also advocate this. If you can determine which way the tornado is moving toward, face your body toward that direction and then go to the right, as shown in the diagram below. That is usually toward the south or southeast. The reason that it's best to head this way is that if you went to the left you would normally get into the region where largest hail and blinding rain occur in the kind of supercell, rotating thunderstorms that often spawn tornadoes. If I had no such driving option and I did feel the urge to get out of my car, I'd try to get into a building, and into a ditch well away from the car as the last resort."

My condolences and prayers go to all of the family and friends of Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras, and Carl Young. Their deaths are a terrible shock to the meteorological community, and a great loss for tornado science. I hope that their deaths will lead towards safer tornado chasing, and help spur efforts to use emerging drone technology to take measurements in dangerous storms such as tornadoes and hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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I see our invest is still looking rather sloppy.

One thing I did notice is a blob of heavy convection moving northwards along the western Caribbean, which is probably merging with the broad low. This may kick start more development, if it holds together.

Coordinates and heading are a bit perplexing considering what model consensus had been yesterday evening, but I guess that's to be expected, changes, etc, in a highly disorganized system.

Doesn't look like there's any steering features in a hurry to dive south over the next few days, so maybe our invest has a few days to just do it's own thing over the Gulf.

SST of 28C is enough for strong development, but it's not very deep warm water yet, so if it's a slow mover the whole time it'll choke on it's own up-welling.
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Colorado State University Team Continues to Predict Above-Average 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Excerpt:


FORT COLLINS - The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team continues to predict an above-average 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season due primarily to unusually warm water in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and an expected lack of an El Niño event. The team calls for 18 named storms during the hurricane season, between June 1 and Nov. 30. Nine of those are expected to become hurricanes and four of those are expected to become major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
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Quoting anotherwrongyear:
here we ago again....the early morning models showed 91l gowing into central florida by tampa... now only 1 model shows it going up into the pan handle of florida.... another false alarm here in daytona .... things never change nor do they know whats gonna happen

The models are just a tool, not a mystical crystal ball that views the future. Just like any tool, they must be used properly, knowing their strengths and weaknesses and some "understanding the tool" is needed to work it right.

A hammer will work poorly on a deck screw.

A digital multimeter is invaluable to an electrician because of the information it CAN provide; But you have to know how to use the tool...
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Quoting SLU:


Are you expecting any changes?

With a next to 0 percent chance of an el nino this year I rather suspect they will maintain their numbers from April.


IMO,they will maintain with the April numbers.
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New aerial footage from the confluence of the rivers Inn and Danube.
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Quoting MahFL:


Watch the language please.

sorry

Quoting TideWaterWeather:


NHC has called nothing, they have just designated an area of interest (INVEST). Given the MJO pulse and the model support, coupled with the the start of the tropical season, this was a prudent move. You speak as if NHC gave it depression status or higher?

nah you will see how I speak when NHC give TD status

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:




by the looks of it might as well let that thing spin around and around in circles
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
Quoting SLU:


Are you expecting any changes?

With a next to 0 percent chance of an el nino this year I rather suspect they will maintain their numbers from April.


What were their numbers if you know offhand?>
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844. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


No access fron here. Hopefully it comes back soon to see their June forecast.


Are you expecting any changes?

With a next to 0 percent chance of an el nino this year I rather suspect they will maintain their numbers from April.
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Quoting SLU:
CSU's new forecast is due today but I can't seem to access their website. Anyone else having trouble?

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/


No access fron here. Hopefully it comes back soon to see their June forecast.
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840. SLU
CSU's new forecast is due today but I can't seem to access their website. Anyone else having trouble?

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/
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Quoting Luisport:
Thank's! It's really impressive!
Saxony Interior Minister Ulbig appeals to the common sense of citizens - the calls for evacuation should necessarily be followed.

According to current forecasts by the State Flood Center is expected to increase at the same level Schoena to more than seven meters - and on Wednesday even up to 11.05 meters. Normal level there are 2.14 meters.

spiegel.de
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I use this now

Tropical Tidbits Model page


Thanks WXGeek!!! Is this our own Levi's site?
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Quoting Torito:
Rainfall total for me this past week: .4"...


Looks like the EPAC is trying to cook something up again. That's great, the moisture from those systems plume straight up into TX.
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835. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh ASCAT of the wave ~33W..

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Glad to see Germany has the word out for satellite help for the flooding.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I am very sorry I have to do this "Another one bites the dust!!" and yes I know there is no dust but still just saying

I did say NHC called 91L too early and that this is not the system they are looking for


NHC has called nothing, they have just designated an area of interest (INVEST). Given the MJO pulse and the model support, coupled with the the start of the tropical season, this was a prudent move. You speak as if NHC gave it depression status or higher?
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832. JRRP

wave with nice rotation
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
anyone have links for all the models now that Allan Hoffman is charging for his posting of the models. I know they are public domain.

Thanks


I use this now

Tropical Tidbits Model page
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830. MahFL
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
morning guys
hmm....


Watch the language please.
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Mourning.

Blessings and Peace to family and friends of the victims. I echo hopes that it will lead to improved safety by chasers.

Congrats to all the graduates out there. Stay safe on your new journeys.

Indian Riv, thanks for all you do to keep our estuaries healthy, safe, and put out good info.
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bettes interview on twc now
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anyone have links for all the models now that Allan Hoffman is charging for his posting of the models. I know they are public domain.

Thanks
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826. 7544
looks like 91L is getting lots more convection to it so fl will indeed see a lot of rain from it weather it devolpes or not saty tune !
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Rainfall total for me this past week: .4"...
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Really hoping this system in the gulf doesnt develop, my vacation at the beach begins June 8th.

Send it west into Mexico.
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There is a significant adrenaline rush that comes with storm chasing, even for the most benign chaser. The data needs to be collected, but the use of drones exclusively will not come to pass. Even if it does, there is still goingto always be the "tourist" element to chasing.
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822. SLU
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

that tropical wave lookin good for a early June trop wave


Very bad sign for the Cape Verde season if we can see such a well defined feature that far east in early June.
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TUE-THU...CLOUDY/WET PERIOD TO CONTINUE AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN U.S. TO EASTERN GULF/YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A
SHEAR AXIS. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AXIS WILL STREAM TROPICAL
AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AVERAGING NEAR 2.25 INCHES. GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR IN GENERAL
PATTERN...WITH SERIES OF WEAK LOWS MEANDERING OVER THE SE
GULF...WITH EVENTUAL EJECTION OF A SURFACE FEATURE BY LATE
THU...TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA OR THE PANHANDLE. EXPECT EXTENSIVE MUTLI-
LAYERED CLOUDS AND TUE-WED WITH NUMEROUS DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING/NIGHT. GREATEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/LIFT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS REGION THU. HAVE INDICATED
50-70 POPS ALL THREE DAYS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...MOST
WIDESPREAD ON THU. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP. WARM MINS DUE TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW/HIGH DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER.

ANOTHER HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /ESFMLB/ WAS ISSUED SUNDAY EVENING TO
ADDRESS THE MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY REACH
4-8 INCHES IN MANY AREAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAY NEED TO RAISE A FLOOD WATCH LATER THIS WEEK
FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAYED TUNED.

FRI-SUN...DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO EXTEND TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SHOULD HELP EJECT WEAK SURFACE LOW
NORTHEAST ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD FRI/SAT. THIS SCENARIO
SHOULD SHUNT THE BAND OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH SOME RELATIVE DRYING REACHING THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO
DROP BELOW 2 INCHES...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 1.75 INCHES.
TRANSITION BACK TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL/SEA-BREEZE-DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN IN THE OFFING...HOWEVER STILL 30-40 PERCENT
DAILY COVERAGE WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE CLIMO.

OF NOTE...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO OUR SOUTH
FROM THE YUCATAN TO THE KEYS/SOUTHERN PENINSULA INTO THE WEEKEND.
IF SURFACE LOW DOES NOT EVOLVE AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...VERY WET
PATTERN COULD POTENTIALLY PERSIST INTO FRI-SAT FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA AS WELL.

FROM NWS MLB...
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.3" rain for me in MD yesterday.

Now it looks like the corn grew a foot over one night... xD
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Quoting Abacosurf:

Wait for a few more frames of visible sat. and you will see the mid level vort to the north of the yucatan peninsula is well in tact. There will be several phases of this storm between now and thursday. Yes there will be energy from the GOH that come in to the equation but to say the system was called to early is pointless. It's there and evolving now.

no not pointless it is early
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. POTENTIAL TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ADDS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST LATE WEEK. THU
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WED...THOUGH WITH MORE CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS PUSHED INLAND AND
DISSIPATES THU BUT IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP. WILL
MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC POP WITH HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

FRI AND BEYOND THE PREVIOUS INCREASING AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS EVAPORATED. NOW SEEING SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES POPPING UP WITHIN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN. EVEN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. WHAT IS KNOWN IS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BE WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED. LACK OF STEERING AND ENHANCING
FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS YET TO TAKE
SHAPE...IS GIVING THE GUIDANCE FITS AND KEEPING CONFIDENCE LOW. IF
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IT IS LIKELY TO MEANDER AROUND THE GULF UNTIL
MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FRI CAPTURES
IT. ONCE THE TROUGH PICKS IT UP THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BUT PATHS VARY FROM WEST OF THE ILM FORECAST
AREA TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI INTO SAT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS IT IS LIKELY TO BE TRANSITIONING
FROM TROPICAL TO BAROCLINIC AS IT REACHES THE CAROLINAS.

NWS WILMINGTON NC don't think much of it
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The rain chance here according to NWS and WU for yesterday was higher than it's been for months - 80%, so, definately gonna rain, right?

Wrong. Not a drop.



Still, one wet May, and June sure did start off with a bang. And promises (promises, promises) for more to come...
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I am very sorry I have to do this "Another one bites the dust!!" and yes I know there is no dust but still just saying

I did say NHC called 91L too early and that this is not the system they are looking for

Wait for a few more frames of visible sat. and you will see the mid level vort to the north of the yucatan peninsula is well in tact. There will be several phases of this storm between now and thursday. Yes there will be energy from the GOH that come in to the equation but to say the system was called to early is pointless. It's there and evolving now.
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Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Ahhh! I knew you would show up! Thank you. About to dig in!


Hi! Yes, I spent nine days in Kentucky for a National Specialty first for Papillons, and then for Russian Toys. I only showed in the Russian Toys, winning Sweepstakes and Best of Opposite Sex for Long haired variety. I was Match Chair for the Phalene variety of the Papillon for that Specialty. Then I headed down to Florida to my oldest son's house for a week. He's stationed at Hurlburt Air Field in Fort Walton Beach. I love how much cooler it is with the Gulf breeze. Now if I can only figure out how to get that breeze here in west central Louisiana!
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814. beell
Seems the surface trough and ex-Barbara-lower-tropospheric support is pretty much locked in place between the ridges in the models. From the tip of the Yucatan to SW Florida. Western gulf ridging appears to eventually suppress or nullify any monsoonal circulation in the Atlantic basin by mid-week. What ever it is would seem to continue on a track towards the NE along the surface trough.

A weak upper trough over the gulf should provide good divergence/support for showers and thunderstorms from the western tip of Cuba to the southern half of Florida.

And it's probably worth a mention that upper shortwave ridging ahead of this feature along with confluent flow/subsidence with the southern stream westerlies over the northern gulf may temper the rain totals for northern Floridians.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

nah
yeah... Lol it's deepening pretty quickly as that trough approaches. This is an example of a small area of low pressure being ejected from the larger broad low that is hanging out further sw
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Some more intensity from SHIP.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC MON JUN 3 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912013) 20130603 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130603 1200 130604 0000 130604 1200 130605 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.7N 89.2W 22.4N 90.0W 22.8N 91.1W 23.1N 92.0W
BAMD 21.7N 89.2W 22.3N 89.3W 22.8N 89.4W 23.5N 89.7W
BAMM 21.7N 89.2W 22.2N 89.8W 22.4N 90.6W 22.7N 91.5W
LBAR 21.7N 89.2W 22.6N 89.3W 23.8N 89.6W 25.2N 89.7W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 26KTS 28KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 26KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130605 1200 130606 1200 130607 1200 130608 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.9N 93.1W 22.1N 94.8W 21.5N 96.2W 21.6N 98.2W
BAMD 23.9N 90.0W 24.6N 90.4W 26.8N 88.5W 32.8N 81.3W
BAMM 22.6N 92.3W 21.8N 94.0W 21.3N 95.4W 21.5N 96.7W
LBAR 26.6N 89.3W 29.5N 86.8W 34.1N 80.9W 41.2N 70.8W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 42KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 42KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.7N LONCUR = 89.2W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 88.8W DIRM12 = 338DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 20.3N LONM24 = 88.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 180NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
If I'm not mistaken, it appears we have a baroclinic low forming about 225 miles due north of cancun. Water vapor is the most apparent showing dry air starting to wrap around from the NW side of the circulation. This possible center is located at the easternmost part of a lobe of 850 mb Vorticity located north of the yucatan.

nah
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
Quoting indianrivguy:


nonsense, you have receive erroneous information.. the algae blooms of the last two summers wiped out the grasses....over 100 manatees have died in 8 months for LACK of seagrass.. they were forced to eat algae, and it killed them.. more than 30 dolphins, over 300 brown pelicans and hundreds of other birds, all dead. A nutrient driven collapse in all three northern lagoons is underway.
All driven by a desire to "drain the Swamp" and make the Lake O region safe for sugar cane and houses. I'm oversimplifying, but the whole thing is maddening.
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My condolences go to all of the family and friends of Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras, and Carl Young. I hope that their deaths will lead towards safer tornado chasing, and help spur efforts to use emerging drone technology to take measurements in dangerous storms such as tornadoes and hurricanes.

Jeff Masters


The Portlight Family also sends its condolences to the Samaras & Young Families for their Loss of Loved ones.

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If I'm not mistaken, it appears we have a baroclinic low forming about 225 miles due north of cancun. Water vapor is the most apparent showing dry air starting to wrap around from the NW side of the circulation. This possible center is located at the easternmost part of a lobe of 850 mb Vorticity located north of the yucatan.
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Quoting FtMyersgal:


Same thing is happening here on the Caloosahatchee. It's killing seagrasses here too. Also contributing to algae blooms.


I spoke up for your C43 storm treatment area just the other day.. we need C44 finished as you need yours finished too.
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Quoting TylerStanfield:

Thanks for the Clarification. ;)


Remember to write a blog and post it, as I think the system still resets your comment count when you post your first blog.
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Quoting barbamz:


The very short version (previous - now)
Thank's! It's really impressive!
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
Quoting islander101010:
lack of sea grass up here in the mosquito lagoon manatees are suspects too


nonsense, you have receive erroneous information.. the algae blooms of the last two summers wiped out the grasses....over 100 manatees have died in 8 months for LACK of seagrass.. they were forced to eat algae, and it killed them.. more than 30 dolphins, over 300 brown pelicans and hundreds of other birds, all dead. A nutrient driven collapse in all three northern lagoons is underway.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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