Tornado Scientist Tim Samaras and Team Killed in Friday's El Reno, OK Tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:43 PM GMT on June 02, 2013

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Veteran tornado scientist Tim Samaras, his son, environmental photographer Paul Samaras, 24, and meteorologist Carl Young, 45, died while chasing Friday's EF-3 tornado in El Reno, Oklahoma. The tornado killed at least nine people, in total. "Thank you to everyone for the condolences. It truly is sad that we lost my great brother Tim and his great son, Paul," said the brother of Tim Samaras, Jim Samaras, on Tim's Facebook page. "They all unfortunately passed away but doing what they LOVED." Tim, his son Paul, and Carl Young were all featured chasers on the Discovery Channel’s series, Storm Chasers, and Tim was known throughout the chase community as a conscientious and safety-minded chaser. Carl Young, who holds a Masters degree in meteorology from the University of Nevada, joined Samaras in the field in 2003. According to his Discovery Channel biography, Young and Samaras chased over 125 tornadoes together: "Carl's finest moment came on June 11, 2004 near Storm Lake, Iowa. Working with Tim, they defied the odds and deployed their probes right in the path of a tornado. The six-camera video probe captured amazing footage from multiple angles while the sensor probe recorded data that revealed just how fast wind speeds are close to the ground."


Figure 1. TWC's Mike ‪Bettes‬ crew caught this image of the El Reno, Oklahoma tornado of May 31, 2013 before the tornado caught them and rolled their vehicle. The tornado killed tornado scientists/storm chasers Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras, and Carl Young.


Figure 2. Storm chasers in North Dakota aligned themselves to spell out "T S" in honor of Tim Samaras today. Image credit: spotternetwork.org.

Tornado science loses a pioneer
Tim Samaras had been a tornado scientist for over 25 years. He was the founder of TWISTEX, the Tactical Weather Instrumented Sampling in Tornadoes Experiment, a 2011 field experiment designed to help learn more about tornadoes and increase lead time for warnings, which resulted in many peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. One of Tim Samaras' most widely recognized contributions to tornado science is his placement of an aerodynamically-designed probe in the path of an EF-4 tornado near Manchester, South Dakota on June 24, 2003. The probe measured a world-record pressure fall of 100 mb over a 40 second period.

One of the publications from the TWISTEX program, "Near-Ground Pressure and Wind Measurements in Tornadoes" recounts this close call Tim had in a tornado in 2011: "As the storm approached, the crew noted that the supercell was moving more sharply to the right of its former course, placing them near the projected path of the low-level mesocyclone. The crew drove south on Highway 259, attempting to position south of the low-level mesocyclone before it crossed the highway. With considerable tree cover in this region hampering the visual observation of the storm's features, TWISTEX crews could not position south of the mesocyclone on Highway 259 before the mesocyclone reached this road. Thus, the two mobile mesonet stations, M2 and M3, had an unplanned tornado encounter with a developing tornadic circulation while the mesonet was traveling south on Highway 259."


Figure 3. One of Tim Samaras' most widely recognized contributions to tornado science is his placement of an aerodynamically-designed probe in the path of an EF-4 tornado near Manchester, South Dakota on June 24, 2003. The probe measured a world-record pressure fall of 100 mb over a 40 second period. See the NWS article and conference paper on the event. Thanks to wunderground member Scott Lincoln for this link.

A storm chasers' nightmare
Cars and tornadoes can prove a dangerous mix even for the world's most experienced storm chasers. Driving at high speeds though heavy rain, large hail, and high winds is hazardous. If one is lucky enough to chase down a tornado, even the most experienced chasers can find themselves in a serious life-threatening situation when unexpected events occur. The exact circumstances of the deaths of Tim Samaras and his team are not clear, but the El Reno tornado was an extremely dangerous one to chase. Tornadoes by their nature are unpredictable, and can change course unexpectedly, or pop up suddenly. It's particularly dangerous when a tornado is wrapped in rain, making it hard to see, or if a chaser is operating in a heavily populated area, where roads may suddenly become congested. All four of these conditions occurred Friday during the El Reno tornado. The El Reno tornado was wrapped in rain and difficult to see as it headed west towards Oklahoma City, and suddenly made a jog to the southeast as a Weather Channel team led by Mike Bettes was attempting to get in front of the storm, and the tornado lifted their vehicle off the ground, rolled it multiple times, and hurled it 200 yards into a nearby field. Austin Anderson was driving the Tornado Hunt vehicle, and suffered several broken bones and was hospitalized. Although Austin will have to undergo surgery in the next few days, doctors say he is expected to make a full recovery. StormChasingVideo.com storm chaser Brandon Sullivan and his chase partner Brett Wright got caught in the tornado northwest of Union City, OK and slammed with debris as the tornado hit a barn that exploded in front of them. Meteorologist Emily Sutton and storm chaser Kevin Josefy of local Oklahoma City TV station KFOR also had a very close call with the El Reno tornado Friday afternoon. They got too close to the tornado, and were forced to floor the car in reverse to escape flying debris. With branches of trees crashing around them, Sutton began feeling debris hitting her back, and realized that the rear windshield of the car must have gotten destroyed. Both were uninjured. Reed Timmer's armor-plated "Dominator" chase vehicle had its hood torn off by the tornado. Wunderground member Levi32 was out storm chasing during the El Reno Tornado, and got stuck in traffic on Highway 4 and couldn't move. "We looked up above the car and saw the wall cloud over top of us, with very quick rotation and rising scud indicating the updraft. We were definitely too close."


Video 1. Severe storm researcher and engineer Tim Samaras talks about his view on tornadoes and what remains to be understood in this interview posted on May 21, 2013.


Video 2. A tornado passes over one of Tim Samaras' specially designed six-camera video probes on June 11, 2004 near Storm Lake, Iowa.

Tornadoes and cars: a dangerous mix
A vehicle is about the worst place you can be in a tornado, as the tornado's winds can easily roll a car. (The only place less safe is probably a mobile home, as a tornado's winds can roll mobile homes almost as readily, and mobile homes don't come with seat belts and air bags.) At least five of the deaths in Friday's El Reno tornado occurred in vehicles. There was one local TV station that urged residents without underground shelters to get in their cars and "get south" in advance of the tornado that was approaching Oklahoma City, since chasers were reporting that the El Reno tornado may have been so strong that only an underground shelter would have provided adequate protection. This terrible piece of advice likely contributed to the incredible traffic jams that we saw on I-35, I-40, I-44, and other local roads Friday night. Thousands of cars were bumper-to-bumper on the roads as a dangerous tornado approached them. Had the El Reno tornado plowed directly down one of these car-choked interstates, the death toll could have easily exceeded 500. If you are located in a metro area and don't have an underground shelter, the best thing to do it to take shelter in an interior windowless room or hallway, with protective furniture over your body. Getting in a car and attempting to flee the tornado is the worst thing you can do in an urban area. You may not be able to see the tornado if it is dark or the tornado is wrapped in rain. You are likely to encounter hazardous winds, rain, and hail, run into unexpected traffic, or flooded or debris-blocked roads that will put you directly in the path of the tornado. Even without an underground shelter, most people will be able to survive a dangerous EF-4 tornado. Case in point: during the Mannsford, Oklahoma EF- 4 tornado of 1984, a packed church received a direct hit, and everyone in the church survived. The only fatality was a man who drove to the church to get his wife. It is often better to abandon your vehicle and take shelter in a ditch, if you are caught in a car during a tornado. However, if there is already flying debris in the air, leaving your car and exposing yourself to the debris in order to get to a ditch may be more hazardous than staying in your car. Furthermore, ditches are prone to flash floods. Four deaths during the El Reno tornado were from a family of seven that sheltered in a drainage ditch, and were washed into the Deep Fork River by a flash flood. Searchers are still looking for the other three bodies. A 2002 research paper, "UNSAFE AT ANY (WIND) SPEED? Testing the Stability of Motor Vehicles in Severe Winds" found that: "The stability and superior safety of being in a vehicle in severe winds, relative to occupying a mobile home or being outdoors, should be considered." Also, TWC's severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes, commented on the pros and cons of abandoning one's vehicle for a ditch in a 2009 blog post, "Tornado Safety - Cars Versus Ditches: A Controversy." His personal take on what he would do if his car was being overtaken by a tornado, and no sturdy buildings were nearby to take shelter in: "I can't see myself getting out of the vehicle. I'd try first to drive away from the tornado. Both the NWS and the American Red Cross actually also advocate this. If you can determine which way the tornado is moving toward, face your body toward that direction and then go to the right, as shown in the diagram below. That is usually toward the south or southeast. The reason that it's best to head this way is that if you went to the left you would normally get into the region where largest hail and blinding rain occur in the kind of supercell, rotating thunderstorms that often spawn tornadoes. If I had no such driving option and I did feel the urge to get out of my car, I'd try to get into a building, and into a ditch well away from the car as the last resort."

My condolences and prayers go to all of the family and friends of Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras, and Carl Young. Their deaths are a terrible shock to the meteorological community, and a great loss for tornado science. I hope that their deaths will lead towards safer tornado chasing, and help spur efforts to use emerging drone technology to take measurements in dangerous storms such as tornadoes and hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Andrebrooks:
Then where is everybody.



off doing other sfuff there other things in life then this blog
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Then where is everybody.

No one is here. You're the only one left. Dr. Masters said to please turn out the lights when you leave. The electric bill is killing him.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17327
As just reported by The Weather Channel, the death toll from Friday now stands at 13.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Listen to this KFOR met is scaring me, and this happened 2 days ago...

He was telling people to leave, go south, into the area where two additional tornadoes touched down... and at the time when the storm was heading towards the airport...

Seems strange not to tell pple to seek basements first.
As we learned after Moore tornado, there wasn't many basements in Oklahoma due to "high water table" and "hard soil". Only 2% in Moore got basements and 15% got storm cellar.

EDIT: However, construction companies said basements is possible in Oklahoma as they figured out the ways to break through hard soil and prevent water damage.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
Hi
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1367
Listening to this KFOR met is scaring me, and this happened 2 days ago...

He was telling people to leave, go south, into the area where two additional tornadoes touched down... and at the time when the storm was heading towards the airport...

Seems strange not to tell pple to seek basements first. [or go north?]
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Quoting Tazmanian:



NO
Then where is everybody.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1367
I think in fifteen minutes,they will up the chances,we'll see.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1367
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Is anybody here.



NO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is anybody here.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1367
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Seems like we have 3 different types of "extreme weather chasers" here.
.
1. The best in the business of chasing and gathering scientific info, and doing it as safely as possible. Decades of experience, Samaras from all reports was a scientist first, and any money he made was an extra.
.
2. The best in the business for media presentation of another episode of "the closest we can get to death". TWC crew and Bettes came close, and we'll see how TWC and Bettes deal with storm chasing in the future.
.
3. The amateur in it strictly for the adrenaline rush and the money, money. Brandon Anderson's well-filmed clip appears to be a pre-planned run into the eye for the money bit...with the camera viewpoint nicely co-ordinated with the frantic fear as Anderson freaks on cue. CNN obliged by running the clip non-stop and just about every other channel piled on as Anderson gets the brass-ring and the dough. There's enough of the public, many of us, who pay-per-chase. Some naboob even posted the clip here first.
.
Shows how capricious these storms can be to take down the top in category 1 and 2.
.
I'd like to see the outcome be some community understanding amongst category 3 amateurs to allow for a buffer a few miles further away. And the media needs to take some responsibility and defer from showing the most sensational(I know, good luck).

Samaras was an engineer and really thought the whole "fun" part of storm chasing was secondary to deploying his measurement instruments, most of which he designed and built himself. Samaras really was unique, and mostly chased storms because that's where the data was. Even after 30 years of doing this, he still always had a meteorologist as part of the team, since he felt it was beyond his skill level to analyze weather on a real-time basis. He took a lot of calculated risks placing his instruments directly in the paths of oncoming tornadoes, and I really thought one of them would get him as he tried to get out of the way. It sounds like he and his team just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The media people are out there to help sell air time. There's a reason Stephanie Abrams and Jim Cantore look like they do. Bettes is a lot more of a "typical" meteorologist, but most of what he and his team does is still to keep the audience glued to the screen. Even though they appeal to the voyeur in all of us, at least they do give some right now type information to people in the affected area, although it's usually accompanied by way too much heavy breathing.

The third group, well, what can I say? The first time I saw the video of Anderson (yes, I class him in the third group), I had the sound turned down. I have no idea how much I saw was acting, but I swore he was screaming "Mommy" there for a bit. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17327
Quoting Andrebrooks:
DR.Jeff masters,how do you change your name on your blog.



you cant chages your ueser name if you want a new ueser name then you most sing up uesing a new email
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Found this at News9 website:

Casey Jo · Oklahoma City Community College
Found it! Mike Morgan telling residents to LEAVE! "broadcast meteorologist Mike Morgan advised people to drive away from the tornado that struck southwest of Oklahoma City in El Reno. Not sound advice, in my opinion. Link to video (call to action begins around 8 minutes and 30 seconds into video)" (Washington Post) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gbgqM0JfW0.


Related story: http://www.news9.com/story/22478669/emergency-mana gers-warn-against-attempting-to-outrun-tornadoes
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Quoting FOREX:


What would an upper level ridge do, help it have better conditions to develop?


Yes upper level ridging helps divergence and to decrease shear
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288. vis0
Condolences to their family and friends.

A great loss to the scientific community.
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anyway guys I'll be back in about an hours time to see what NHC says then I'll be off for another 30 min and then I'll be back
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Even with a D.O.W. measurement, it usually doesn't get the winds near the ground that are causing damage. The Frequently cited "318mph" wind speed measurement from the 1999 tornado that hit Moore, OK, seems to get misconstrued for tornado wind speed at the surface on a regular basis, but it was sampled 100s of feet above the ground. Surveys from that tornado estimated winds just above 200mph, similar to other EF5s.
So unfortunately, the D.O.W. data may not be of much help either. We'll have to wait and see.
Yeah, forgot DOW rarely samples at ground level.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
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Quoting FOREX:


Did the 18z GFS show where it might track if it develops?


It takes it into the Big Bend area. It too early to tell. I like the Euro model most as its the most realistic taking it into Central Florida. But with this system you dont focus really on the landfall of the center but the convection around it. Which will likely be sheared miles from the Center and will blanket Central and South Florida with rain. Maybe 5-12 inches.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Both. In cases where the tornado hit very little and and there were reliable wind observations observed by radar, such as the DOW which can read winds at the surface, that's how it's rated. Otherwise, it's rated by its worst damage.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, El Reno tornado DID go over open fields. I believe the worst of it was in open field so, like you said, DOW measurement could be needed. Same thing happened with Rozel storm.

Even with a D.O.W. measurement, it usually doesn't get the winds near the ground that are causing damage. The Frequently cited "318mph" wind speed measurement from the 1999 tornado that hit Moore, OK, seems to get misconstrued for tornado wind speed at the surface on a regular basis, but it was sampled 100s of feet above the ground. Surveys from that tornado estimated winds just above 200mph, similar to other EF5s.
So unfortunately, the D.O.W. data may not be of much help either. We'll have to wait and see.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3320
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We'll know more about the intensity of this tornado once the information collected by a DOW comes in later in the week. With 298 knots of shear (120.4 knots on the north side [maxed out my scale], -177.9 knots on the south side [also maxed out my scale]) there is no doubt in my mind this was a very violent tornado. By far the strongest couplet I have ever seen, a statement that has been uttered by many professional meteorologists as well. I wouldn't be surprised if the winds found by the DOW surpass the winds measured in the '99 Moore tornado.



Note: the radar registered winds so intense that it couldn't resolve them; as such, the radar replaced those regions with no data squares (the black squares). In the bottom right, the big squash no data area is a result of radar's issues with this circulation.

I mostly agree. It was very intense, one of the more intense I recall seeing, and that is out of over 100 radar cases.

The reason NROT (bottom right) dropped out is because there are dropped velocity pixels. NROT will not calculate if velocity data is considered bad and unfixable and set to NoData. GR2Analyst tries to correct for radar aliasing(1), but in some cases it cannot do so. In those situations, you typically see dealiasing failures, where it shows the opposite color you expect in a big swath, usually from GR2Analyst leaving the velocity data as the raw data. In even more rare situations, it can't resolve what the velocity should be, and doesn't think it should be left as the raw data either, then sets the velocity pixels to NoData. As mentioned, velocity data that is set as NoData within the 9x9 pixel area used for the NROT calculation sets the calculation to NoData.
Numerous times I was having to go up a tilt to see what GR2Analyst was calculating for NROT because the bottom tilt was bad.

(1) aliasing is a somewhat common occurrence in strong winds where the speeds exceed what the radar can detect for the VCP (mode) that the radar is set to. It causes the radar to think that the wind speed is actually in the opposite direction - it goes off the scale to the top and starts back at the bottom. Dealiasing algorithms detect this abrupt jump from positive velocity to negative velocity (and vice versa) and try to assign the correct speed/direction.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3320
Seems like we have 3 different types of "extreme weather chasers" here.
.
1. The best in the business of chasing and gathering scientific info, and doing it as safely as possible. Decades of experience, Samaras from all reports was a scientist first, and any money he made was an extra.
.
2. The best in the business for media presentation of another episode of "the closest we can get to death". TWC crew and Bettes came close, and we'll see how TWC and Bettes deal with storm chasing in the future.
.
3. The amateur in it strictly for the adrenaline rush and the money, money. Brandon Anderson's well-filmed clip appears to be a pre-planned run into the eye for the money bit...with the camera viewpoint nicely co-ordinated with the frantic fear as Anderson freaks on cue. CNN obliged by running the clip non-stop and just about every other channel piled on as Anderson gets the brass-ring and the dough. There's enough of the public, many of us, who pay-per-chase. Some naboob even posted the clip here first.
.
Shows how capricious these storms can be to take down the top in category 1 and 2.
.
I'd like to see the outcome be some community understanding amongst category 3 amateurs to allow for a buffer a few miles further away. And the media needs to take some responsibility and defer from showing the most sensational(I know, good luck).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
280. FOREX
Quoting Ricki13th:


You are right. It is somewhat stacked however it very elongated on the 700mb and 500mb vort. The low might spin down to where the concentration of convection and lower shear is located. It will take at least another 24 to 72 hours before this gets going very disorganized.


Did the 18z GFS show where it might track if it develops?
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Mid and low level circulations are very broad, but somewhat stacked.

Anti-cyclone is way over to the wsw of the 850mb vort max.


You are right. It is somewhat stacked however it very elongated on the 700mb and 500mb vort. The low might spin down to where the concentration of convection and lower shear is located. It will take at least another 24 to 72 hours before this gets going very disorganized.
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DR.Jeff masters,how do you change your name on your blog.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1367
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Both. In cases where the tornado hit very little and and there were reliable wind observations observed by radar, such as the DOW which can read winds at the surface, that's how it's rated. Otherwise, it's rated by its worst damage.
Well, El Reno tornado DID go over open fields. I believe the worst of it was in open field so, like you said, DOW measurement could be needed. Same thing happened with Rozel storm.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I just wish the ratings is little easier to be determinate, you know. Like, are they're doing rating based on damage or radar? Are they're doing it at ground or little higher level? I thought EF scale is supposed to be based on damage only at ground.

Both. In cases where the tornado hit very little and and there were reliable wind observations observed by radar, such as the DOW which can read winds at the surface, that's how it's rated. Otherwise, it's rated by its worst damage.
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275. 7544
Quoting FOREX:


Looks like a NNE movement.
Quoting Andrebrooks:
I see it too.New Toll,what percentage do you think it will have on the next TWO( TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK) at the NHC.I think 30%.


ill go with 20 % next two

agree nne movin

this will be interesting to watch
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This was the storm




Ed Piotrowski
This was the car three storm chasers were in when they lost their lives in the El Reno, OK tornado Friday. As I said this morning and I think it's worth mentioning again, my prayers are with their families and ALL families who have lost loved ones in recent weeks.

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Chris Karstens was a fellow graduate student at Iowa State whom I had the privilege of sharing an office with. Very intelligent fellow who had the wonderful opportunity to work more directly with Tim Samaras and crew for a much longer period of time.

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/chase/sam aras.html


"Without Tim's guidance and influence during my graduate education, I would not be living in Oklahoma doing what I am doing. I, like so many, owe a lot to him. No amount of words can describe or summarize this. Going forward, I will do my best to continue living by the example they set. To greet people with a smile and hand shake. To treat everyone as colleagues, regardless of merit. And to remain passionate and motivated about the science of Meteorology and the understanding of tornadoes for the greater good of our society."

That was the Tim I remember.
Thanks for the memories, Tim.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3320
Mid and low level circulations are very broad, but somewhat stacked.

Anti-cyclone is way over to the wsw of the 850mb vort max.
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it will likey stay at %10
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270. FOREX
Quoting Ricki13th:


Midlevel Low is developing in that area. Nothing at the surface though. I definitely see this getting bumped up to at least 20% in the 8pm TWO. With a possible invest designation by tomorrow morning.


Looks like a NNE movement.
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Quoting 7544:


good u see it to thanks
I see it too.New Toll,what percentage do you think it will have on the next TWO( TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK) at the NHC.I think 30%.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1367
Looking at pictures on Twitter, it seem like a WIDE area of EF-3 damage from El Reno tornado.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
Good Afternoon. Just checking in for the first time since Friday and shocked to see the news of the death of several tornado chasers. Condolences to the families.

Now this tragedy begs the question; tornado research is one thing (with crews affiliated with SPC or educational institutions or grant funded independent research) with folks using doppler radars and other instruments to gather vital information for genuine research purposes.

Chasing tornadoes for the news media (to get the closest shots) or the scores of amateur persons (and even guided hunts for pay) who go hunting every severe season is another thing.

We recently had insensitive media personnel sticking cameras and microphones in the faces of "fresh" tornado survivors clearly still in shock and now these media deaths for the sake of evening newscasts.

Something is very wrong with these recent events....TWC, being the main "weather authority" and other media outlets and reporters are starting to rapidly lose my respect.

Disregarding the privacy/mourning rights of weather disaster victims and putting reporters in harms way like this is reprehensible; shame on you. You (TWC) need to take the lead, set an example for other media, and change your policies as to reporting on severe weather events. Also, check with your corporate attorneys on the potential wrongful death lawsuits that will surely follow from additional tragedies like this regardless of whatever "waivers" these victims may have signed.
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Quoting stormchaser19:
It's spinning


Midlevel Low is developing in that area. Nothing at the surface though. I definitely see this getting bumped up to at least 20% in the 8pm TWO. With a possible invest designation by tomorrow morning.
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Quoting stormchaser19:
It's spinning


Still a sheared mess.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
264. 7544
Quoting stormchaser19:
It's spinning


good u see it to thanks
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Quoting 7544:
even if this blob doesnt form still looks like fl is going to get drench but it does look like there is a small spin going on at the tip of the yucatan imo


That's where I'm seeing the spin too.
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Good afternoon/evening. I'm very saddened to learn of the deaths of Tim and Paul Samaras and Carl Young. Storm chasing is risky, no matter how safe you think you are, and these guys were really the best at always keeping safe. There is just no way to ever fully predict the path of a tornado bearing down on you, especially a tornado like they were in.

Anyways, this is from my local NWS discussing possibilities of what could happen in my area towards the end of this week.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS IS THE PERIOD TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...SOME OF THE
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL
CYCLONE NEARING OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME
. HOWEVER...THERE IS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT THE
MOST BULLISH MODELS HAVE THE STORM TAKING A TURN TO THE RIGHT OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA SHORE...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OUTSIDE THE COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS THE BEACHES. THE
ALTERNATE SOLUTION CURRENTLY IS A NON TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVING NEAR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS A COOL COASTAL STORM
. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS SUBSTANTIALLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH RAIN. WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE COMING WEEK.
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Quoting FOREX:


What would an upper level ridge do, help it have better conditions to develop?


It would help ventilate the system, as well as produce some outflow (banding) on the system.
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It's spinning
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
6:21 p.m. EDT Sunday: A thunderstorm capable of producing small hail and strong winds is moving toward Enoree, S.C.

6:17 p.m. EDT Sunday: After rain moved through the area, about one inch of water was flowing across a road near King, N.C.
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258. FOREX
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Yes.


Thanks. I am learning a lot from many of you the last two seasons.
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Quoting FOREX:


What would an upper level ridge do, help it have better conditions to develop?
Yes.
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 30 Comments: 1367
256. FOREX
Quoting Ricki13th:


Take a closer look shear tendency suggest the upper level ridge over the Yucatan is moving over the system.



What would an upper level ridge do, help it have better conditions to develop?
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255. 7544
even if this blob doesnt form still looks like fl is going to get drench but it does look like there is a small spin going on at the tip of the yucatan imo
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The damage doesn't have to. Numerous tornadoes in the past have been upgraded based on radar alone when the structures hit by the tornado didn't support that particular rating.

The Rozel, Kansas tornado received an initial rating of EF2. It was upgraded to EF3 based on further inspection of the barn it hit. The tornado was further upgraded to a high-end EF4 based on wind observations taken by the DOW.
I just wish the ratings is little easier to be determinate, you know. Like, are they're doing rating based on damage or radar? Are they're doing it at ground or little higher level? I thought EF scale is supposed to be based on damage only at ground.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
Quoting Hurricanes101:


UL winds still unfavorable for development, not a huge change there


Take a closer look shear tendency suggest the upper level ridge over the Yucatan is moving over the system.

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Didn't the dominator get the hood ripped off by this same tornado?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Didn't the dominator get the hood ripped off by this same tornado?


My understanding is that they got snagged by some downed cables, and when they backed out, that is when the cable pulled the hood off.

EDIT: I have searched for any source of this version.... finding none, so take this as my memory only. (My recollection is that I heard this in the live audio report Reed made during the event)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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