Tornado Scientist Tim Samaras and Team Killed in Friday's El Reno, OK Tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:43 PM GMT on June 02, 2013

Share this Blog
66
+

Veteran tornado scientist Tim Samaras, his son, environmental photographer Paul Samaras, 24, and meteorologist Carl Young, 45, died while chasing Friday's EF-3 tornado in El Reno, Oklahoma. The tornado killed at least nine people, in total. "Thank you to everyone for the condolences. It truly is sad that we lost my great brother Tim and his great son, Paul," said the brother of Tim Samaras, Jim Samaras, on Tim's Facebook page. "They all unfortunately passed away but doing what they LOVED." Tim, his son Paul, and Carl Young were all featured chasers on the Discovery Channel’s series, Storm Chasers, and Tim was known throughout the chase community as a conscientious and safety-minded chaser. Carl Young, who holds a Masters degree in meteorology from the University of Nevada, joined Samaras in the field in 2003. According to his Discovery Channel biography, Young and Samaras chased over 125 tornadoes together: "Carl's finest moment came on June 11, 2004 near Storm Lake, Iowa. Working with Tim, they defied the odds and deployed their probes right in the path of a tornado. The six-camera video probe captured amazing footage from multiple angles while the sensor probe recorded data that revealed just how fast wind speeds are close to the ground."


Figure 1. TWC's Mike ‪Bettes‬ crew caught this image of the El Reno, Oklahoma tornado of May 31, 2013 before the tornado caught them and rolled their vehicle. The tornado killed tornado scientists/storm chasers Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras, and Carl Young.


Figure 2. Storm chasers in North Dakota aligned themselves to spell out "T S" in honor of Tim Samaras today. Image credit: spotternetwork.org.

Tornado science loses a pioneer
Tim Samaras had been a tornado scientist for over 25 years. He was the founder of TWISTEX, the Tactical Weather Instrumented Sampling in Tornadoes Experiment, a 2011 field experiment designed to help learn more about tornadoes and increase lead time for warnings, which resulted in many peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. One of Tim Samaras' most widely recognized contributions to tornado science is his placement of an aerodynamically-designed probe in the path of an EF-4 tornado near Manchester, South Dakota on June 24, 2003. The probe measured a world-record pressure fall of 100 mb over a 40 second period.

One of the publications from the TWISTEX program, "Near-Ground Pressure and Wind Measurements in Tornadoes" recounts this close call Tim had in a tornado in 2011: "As the storm approached, the crew noted that the supercell was moving more sharply to the right of its former course, placing them near the projected path of the low-level mesocyclone. The crew drove south on Highway 259, attempting to position south of the low-level mesocyclone before it crossed the highway. With considerable tree cover in this region hampering the visual observation of the storm's features, TWISTEX crews could not position south of the mesocyclone on Highway 259 before the mesocyclone reached this road. Thus, the two mobile mesonet stations, M2 and M3, had an unplanned tornado encounter with a developing tornadic circulation while the mesonet was traveling south on Highway 259."


Figure 3. One of Tim Samaras' most widely recognized contributions to tornado science is his placement of an aerodynamically-designed probe in the path of an EF-4 tornado near Manchester, South Dakota on June 24, 2003. The probe measured a world-record pressure fall of 100 mb over a 40 second period. See the NWS article and conference paper on the event. Thanks to wunderground member Scott Lincoln for this link.

A storm chasers' nightmare
Cars and tornadoes can prove a dangerous mix even for the world's most experienced storm chasers. Driving at high speeds though heavy rain, large hail, and high winds is hazardous. If one is lucky enough to chase down a tornado, even the most experienced chasers can find themselves in a serious life-threatening situation when unexpected events occur. The exact circumstances of the deaths of Tim Samaras and his team are not clear, but the El Reno tornado was an extremely dangerous one to chase. Tornadoes by their nature are unpredictable, and can change course unexpectedly, or pop up suddenly. It's particularly dangerous when a tornado is wrapped in rain, making it hard to see, or if a chaser is operating in a heavily populated area, where roads may suddenly become congested. All four of these conditions occurred Friday during the El Reno tornado. The El Reno tornado was wrapped in rain and difficult to see as it headed west towards Oklahoma City, and suddenly made a jog to the southeast as a Weather Channel team led by Mike Bettes was attempting to get in front of the storm, and the tornado lifted their vehicle off the ground, rolled it multiple times, and hurled it 200 yards into a nearby field. Austin Anderson was driving the Tornado Hunt vehicle, and suffered several broken bones and was hospitalized. Although Austin will have to undergo surgery in the next few days, doctors say he is expected to make a full recovery. StormChasingVideo.com storm chaser Brandon Sullivan and his chase partner Brett Wright got caught in the tornado northwest of Union City, OK and slammed with debris as the tornado hit a barn that exploded in front of them. Meteorologist Emily Sutton and storm chaser Kevin Josefy of local Oklahoma City TV station KFOR also had a very close call with the El Reno tornado Friday afternoon. They got too close to the tornado, and were forced to floor the car in reverse to escape flying debris. With branches of trees crashing around them, Sutton began feeling debris hitting her back, and realized that the rear windshield of the car must have gotten destroyed. Both were uninjured. Reed Timmer's armor-plated "Dominator" chase vehicle had its hood torn off by the tornado. Wunderground member Levi32 was out storm chasing during the El Reno Tornado, and got stuck in traffic on Highway 4 and couldn't move. "We looked up above the car and saw the wall cloud over top of us, with very quick rotation and rising scud indicating the updraft. We were definitely too close."


Video 1. Severe storm researcher and engineer Tim Samaras talks about his view on tornadoes and what remains to be understood in this interview posted on May 21, 2013.


Video 2. A tornado passes over one of Tim Samaras' specially designed six-camera video probes on June 11, 2004 near Storm Lake, Iowa.

Tornadoes and cars: a dangerous mix
A vehicle is about the worst place you can be in a tornado, as the tornado's winds can easily roll a car. (The only place less safe is probably a mobile home, as a tornado's winds can roll mobile homes almost as readily, and mobile homes don't come with seat belts and air bags.) At least five of the deaths in Friday's El Reno tornado occurred in vehicles. There was one local TV station that urged residents without underground shelters to get in their cars and "get south" in advance of the tornado that was approaching Oklahoma City, since chasers were reporting that the El Reno tornado may have been so strong that only an underground shelter would have provided adequate protection. This terrible piece of advice likely contributed to the incredible traffic jams that we saw on I-35, I-40, I-44, and other local roads Friday night. Thousands of cars were bumper-to-bumper on the roads as a dangerous tornado approached them. Had the El Reno tornado plowed directly down one of these car-choked interstates, the death toll could have easily exceeded 500. If you are located in a metro area and don't have an underground shelter, the best thing to do it to take shelter in an interior windowless room or hallway, with protective furniture over your body. Getting in a car and attempting to flee the tornado is the worst thing you can do in an urban area. You may not be able to see the tornado if it is dark or the tornado is wrapped in rain. You are likely to encounter hazardous winds, rain, and hail, run into unexpected traffic, or flooded or debris-blocked roads that will put you directly in the path of the tornado. Even without an underground shelter, most people will be able to survive a dangerous EF-4 tornado. Case in point: during the Mannsford, Oklahoma EF- 4 tornado of 1984, a packed church received a direct hit, and everyone in the church survived. The only fatality was a man who drove to the church to get his wife. It is often better to abandon your vehicle and take shelter in a ditch, if you are caught in a car during a tornado. However, if there is already flying debris in the air, leaving your car and exposing yourself to the debris in order to get to a ditch may be more hazardous than staying in your car. Furthermore, ditches are prone to flash floods. Four deaths during the El Reno tornado were from a family of seven that sheltered in a drainage ditch, and were washed into the Deep Fork River by a flash flood. Searchers are still looking for the other three bodies. A 2002 research paper, "UNSAFE AT ANY (WIND) SPEED? Testing the Stability of Motor Vehicles in Severe Winds" found that: "The stability and superior safety of being in a vehicle in severe winds, relative to occupying a mobile home or being outdoors, should be considered." Also, TWC's severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes, commented on the pros and cons of abandoning one's vehicle for a ditch in a 2009 blog post, "Tornado Safety - Cars Versus Ditches: A Controversy." His personal take on what he would do if his car was being overtaken by a tornado, and no sturdy buildings were nearby to take shelter in: "I can't see myself getting out of the vehicle. I'd try first to drive away from the tornado. Both the NWS and the American Red Cross actually also advocate this. If you can determine which way the tornado is moving toward, face your body toward that direction and then go to the right, as shown in the diagram below. That is usually toward the south or southeast. The reason that it's best to head this way is that if you went to the left you would normally get into the region where largest hail and blinding rain occur in the kind of supercell, rotating thunderstorms that often spawn tornadoes. If I had no such driving option and I did feel the urge to get out of my car, I'd try to get into a building, and into a ditch well away from the car as the last resort."

My condolences and prayers go to all of the family and friends of Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras, and Carl Young. Their deaths are a terrible shock to the meteorological community, and a great loss for tornado science. I hope that their deaths will lead towards safer tornado chasing, and help spur efforts to use emerging drone technology to take measurements in dangerous storms such as tornadoes and hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 352 - 302

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20Blog Index

Quoting Bluestorm5:
As we learned after Moore tornado, there wasn't many basements in Oklahoma due to "high water table" and "hard soil". Only 2% in Moore got basements and 15% got storm cellar.

EDIT: However, construction companies said basements is possible in Oklahoma as they figured out the ways to break through hard soil and prevent water damage.



Close, but not quite right. The "hard soil" would be in the Joplin area, as it is part of the Ozark plateau and the soil is extremely rocky.

OK soil has a huge clay content - causing it to expand and contract greatly depending on the amount of water it has and how warm it gets. It also retains water very well, as well as having a high water table. The self-promoting construction companies say they can do it, and it is possible. But, it is expensive to build and maintain basements in most of OK, especially in the region being hit.

However, above ground shelters have been doing extremely well, is backed by research, and are less expensive to build and maintain.

Oklahoma tornadoes: Above ground shelters stood up in face of EF5 Moore tornado
Researchers who toured Moore after the May 20 tornado said aboveground storm shelters held up well in the storm and can be a better choice than underground storm cellars.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
oh my it's 20%!! Everyone start running for the hills.lol.


They may even have to break out a fresh orange crayon in the coming days
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


I say stop putting up mobile homes in tornado alley..they should be outlawed..


Now you're talking lawsuits against the government though. It would be better to make them sign a waver making sure they know what they are getting into and they are risking their lives.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I dont think any tropical model should be discounted, before a TC has developed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
oh my it's 20%!! Everyone start running for the hills.lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, I posted this in my blog but here's my idea of the chances for development in the next few weeks.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030
Just noticed I finally pass 4,000 comments... wow.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030


This was yesterday in case anyone missed it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


I say stop putting up mobile homes in tornado alley..they should be outlawed..


And in Florida too. Hurricanes absolutely SHRED those things like in Andrew.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting Ricki13th:


Yep its now up to 20%! The system has gotten slightly better organized than before. However its lack of convection is a result of DMIN. However, we could see another round of increasingly more organized convection during DMAX tomorrow morning. Circulation also got better pronounced.


You might be a little off on the timing of when DMIN and DMAX occur...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:

If I lived in a mobile home and had a pretty good idea tornado was headed for me, I'd run too. You're dead anyway if you stay in a mobile home. If there's one place a shelter should be absolutely madatory, it's a mobile home park.


I say stop putting up mobile homes in tornado alley..they should be outlawed..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


Now I have to say..some people that choose to stay in houses and schools lost their lives in the Moore tornado..I remember a lady saying in the tornado that hit the day before Moore that lived in the trailer park talking in an interview that they outran the tornado..that tornado completely destroyed that park and even threw semis on the overpass..you really dam* if you do and dam* if you dont if you stay or leave..build the shelters and increase the technology to give longer warning times..thats where the problem lies.
It's a whole different story for mobile homes. It's not strong enough to use it as a shelter so I would've gotten out of the way for a better shelter. If your house is not mobile home, stay.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030
Quoting BahaHurican:
The storm that killed two in the trailer park? I agree with leaving trailers. The problem is where to go, or even better, when to go. I don't think driving around in torrential rain with hail and NO IDEA WHERE THE TORNADO IS is a good idea. OTOH neither is staying in a mobile home. So I guess I agree with you; build the homes and the shelters so [more] people can survive, and upgrade the technology to give people more time to use them properly.


If I knew a F5 tornado was coming and it was coming north, Im going to head SW..those homes and schools in Moore were obliterated and those people knew it was at least an F4..good luck on taking that chance and riding it out even in a brick building in a bath tub..at least in a car heading AWAY from the tornado, you stand a better chance..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening, all. It's hard to talk about other things in the midst of the saddening news of fatalities due to the recent tornadoes, but we do have tropical activity that will affect Florida and the southeast U.S. this week.

Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, June 2nd, with Video
Thanks, Levi. We're pretty glad u made it okay and that your vehicle wasn't one of the ones severely impacted by those Friday tornadoes. I guess you are getting quite an introduction to severe wx, tornado alley style...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
ECMWF has been making the GFS look absolutely pathetic with the MJO forecasts. Back in early May, the GFS maintained an amplified MJO state propagating into octants 5, 6, 7, and 8. ECMWF said MJO wouldn't make it into any of these octants and instead go straight through the middle circle (no man's land). A couple weeks later, ECMWF's forecast verified and the MJO behaved exactly as the ECMWF predicted, going into the center circle. From there, in late May the GFS predicted the MJO would strongly amplify into our octants 1 and 2, ECMWF said it would hang near the circle and weakly come out into octants 1 and 2. Sure enough...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bluenosedave:


Ouch. There are 6 counties in New Brunswick currently under severe thunderstorm warnings. Link
Hey, blue... u guys under warnings again? seems like it's raining all over the world... except at SAR's house...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting ncstorm:


Now I have to say..some people that choose to stay in houses and schools lost their lives..I remember a lady saying in the tornado that hit the day before Moore that lived in the trailer park talking in an interviw that they outran the tornado..that tornado completely destroyed that park and even threw semis on the overpass..you really dam* if you do and dam* if you dont if you stay or leave..build the shelters and increase the technology to give longer warning times..thats where the problem lies.
The storm that killed two in the trailer park? I agree with leaving trailers. The problem is where to go, or even better, when to go. I don't think driving around in torrential rain with hail and NO IDEA WHERE THE TORNADO IS is a good idea. OTOH neither is staying in a mobile home. So I guess I agree with you; build the homes and the shelters so [more] people can survive, and upgrade the technology to give people more time to use them properly.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting ncstorm:


Now I have to say..some people that choose to stay in houses and schools lost their lives..I remember a lady saying in the tornado that hit the day before Moore that lived in the trailer park talking in an interviw that they outran the tornado..that tornado completely destroyed that park and even threw semis on the overpass..you really dam* if you do and dam* if you dont if you stay or leave..build the shelters and increase the technology to give longer warning times..thats where the problem lies.

If I lived in a mobile home and had a pretty good idea tornado was headed for me, I'd run too. You're dead anyway if you stay in a mobile home. If there's one place a shelter should be absolutely madatory, it's a mobile home park.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening, all. It's hard to talk about other things in the midst of the saddening news of fatalities due to the recent tornadoes, but we do have tropical activity that will affect Florida and the southeast U.S. this week.

Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, June 2nd, with Video
This blog is for everybody to discuss any weather topics or science. Feel free to discuss tropics. I think we all need to focus on other things after the past few weeks of tornadoes and tragedies anyway. It's time to move on, but keep the victims in our thoughts.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030
It's a wait and see for sure on this disturbance. Sheer tendency is for reduced sheer to the North of it (see below) so we need to watch it closely over the next 72 hours. It is clearly embedded in the trof and nowhere near establishing itself as an independent identity at the moment.

Sheer Tendency:

Link

If it is able to get organized, once it gets into the Central Gulf, and sheer relaxes, it could spin up relatively quickly due to the current SST's there and the warm eddy due South of LA/AL/Fl Panhandle:

Link

Could get interesting in about about 3 days. See Yall Tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:

Basements are really nice things to have. I had one and had a great pool table down there. It was also nice when a tornado came within 100 yards of the house. However, even without the basement, I would have survived in an interior room, since I only lost a few windows and part of the roof decking. Almost any marginally well constructed frame, single story structure will protect you from a near miss with an average tornado, as long as you have an interior room with no windows to go to. I have no illusions that that basement would have protected me in the case of a direct hit from and EF-5, like those that occured in Moore and Joplin. Notning except maybe an M1A1 Abrams buried 10 feet in the ground is going to do you much good. However, how many people in this latest round of tornadoes were killed while inside a structure? From what I can tell, it was none. They were killed in cars or because they drowned in ditches and culverts, presumably after abandoning their cars. Basements are way overrated. Just stay inside the safest room in your house and that chances are greater than 90% you'll come out without a scratch. Try to outrun a tornado in a vehicle for whatever reason and you're in big trouble sometimes.
Basements aren't overrated, but they're not completely tornado-proof either. Basements are the best place to stay during tornado, but you don't really completely need it. Like you said, it's a great chance you'll survive in the inter-most room of an home as well. And you're correct. It seem like all of people were killed in car during El Reno tornado. It's very bad idea to try to outrun or escape tornado's path in a car.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030
Quoting sar2401:

It's actually much worse than groupthink - it's too much information. Almost all the chasers locate themselves using GPS and that information is viewed by all the other chasers in the area. All of them know who the real "experts" are and watch which way they're headed. The herd follows the experts. In this case, the experts were making some bad decisions as well as dealing with a large and sometimes unpredictable cyclone. I suspect that, by the time the experts knew they were in trouble, it was too late, and they had no escape route, due to the lack of bridges over the Candian River and congested roads. As bad as it was to lose three chasers and have others injured, it really is amazing that more of them didn't get injured or killed. There are some things just not worth doing, for love nor money.

That's a good point on the GPS. It has the potential to magnify the situation when the experts get in a bad position. It's another factor to look at. The tendency of this community is going to be to look at this incident from a meteorological perspective. It really needs to be investigated from a decision making and group dynamics perspective. People are unlikely to stop chasing. Figuring out how a large group of experienced chasers all ended up getting run over by the same storm offers the best opportunity to prevent this in the future.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening, all. It's hard to talk about other things in the midst of the saddening news of fatalities due to the recent tornadoes, but we do have tropical activity that will affect Florida and the southeast U.S. this week.

Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, June 2nd, with Video
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FYI... I'm now reading that the original captions of Tim's vehicle were incorrect. That was not Tim's truck, it was mobile mesonet #3 (M3), a Chevy Cobalt. I don't even see a sign of the mesonet even being on the vehicle.

Havent heard anything regarding why he was in one of the support vehicles and not his truck... I suppose it doesn't really matter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Ouch. There are 6 counties in New Brunswick currently under severe thunderstorm warnings. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Didn't I say to the Doc, "Doc, u gatta install solar panels on that there blog or the 'lectric bill's gonna kill ya"?

Why, yes, you did, Baha, I remember it distinctly. I understand that Chicklit and Nea are scoping out the project as I write. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Has Grothar been posting lately? Haven't seen him in quite a while.


Saw him only a couple of days ago...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Found this at News9 website:

Casey Jo %uFFFD Oklahoma City Community College
Found it! Mike Morgan telling residents to LEAVE! "broadcast meteorologist Mike Morgan advised people to drive away from the tornado that struck southwest of Oklahoma City in El Reno. Not sound advice, in my opinion. Link to video (call to action begins around 8 minutes and 30 seconds into video)" (Washington Post) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gbgqM0JfW0.


Related story: http://www.news9.com/story/22478669/emergency-mana gers-warn-against-attempting-to-outrun-tornadoes


Now I have to say..some people that choose to stay in houses and schools lost their lives in the Moore tornado..I remember a lady saying in the tornado that hit the day before Moore that lived in the trailer park talking in an interview that they outran the tornado..that tornado completely destroyed that park and even threw semis on the overpass..you really dam* if you do and dam* if you dont if you stay or leave..build the shelters and increase the technology to give longer warning times..thats where the problem lies.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pcola57:


I count 13 Lows and 2 Highs in that 87hr. GFS..


Major convective feedback. I think the GFS is overrated some especially the fact that the local mets depend mostly on that for forecasting cyclones. Euro is much better and more realistic at times.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Has Grothar been posting lately? Haven't seen him in quite a while.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:Post# 235
18Z GFS 87HR!


I count 13 Lows and 2 Highs in that 87hr. GFS model you posted..

o.O
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Yep its now up to 20%! The system has gotten slightly better organized than before. However its lack of convection is a result of DMIN. However, we could see another round of increasingly more organized convection during DMAX tomorrow morning. Circulation also got better pronounced.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FunnelVortex:


The armatures need to ride along with professionals before going on their own.

Well, if the armatures don't ride along with the professionals, their alternators and starters won't work. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
um what happened to Allan Huffman's page..I get an error message saying I dont have permission to view it..anyone else?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
318. 7544
yeap 20% this might just get going imo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
As we learned after Moore tornado, there wasn't many basements in Oklahoma due to "high water table" and "hard soil". Only 2% in Moore got basements and 15% got storm cellar.

EDIT: However, construction companies said basements is possible in Oklahoma as they figured out the ways to break through hard soil and prevent water damage.


Basements are really nice things to have. I had one and had a great pool table down there. It was also nice when a tornado came within 100 yards of the house. However, even without the basement, I would have survived in an interior room, since I only lost a few windows and part of the roof decking. Almost any marginally well constructed frame, single story structure will protect you from a near miss with an average tornado, as long as you have an interior room with no windows to go to. I have no illusions that that basement would have protected me in the case of a direct hit from and EF-5, like those that occured in Moore and Joplin. Notning except maybe an M1A1 Abrams buried 10 feet in the ground is going to do you much good. However, how many people in this latest round of tornadoes were killed while inside a structure? From what I can tell, it was none. They were killed in cars or because they drowned in ditches and culverts, presumably after abandoning their cars. Basements are way overrated. Just stay inside the safest room in your house and that chances are greater than 90% you'll come out without a scratch. Try to outrun a tornado in a vehicle for whatever reason and you're in big trouble sometimes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yucatan disturbance is slowly becoming better organized. I am not surprised by the increase to 20% by the NHC.

Goodness people some of you- if you don't like a comment then ignore it...sigh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting TomTaylor:
Are you an Environment Canada representative? You sure are putting a lot of words in their mouths. Their greatest concern is Canada (just as NCEP's greatest concern is the US), but the scope of their focus clearly extends far beyond Canada lol. Otherwise, they wouldn't bother wasting the time, money, effort, and resources to run and improve a global model...you don't just run a global model for fun.



Well, if the rest of the world isn't predicted right, then Canada sure wont be...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Seems like we have 3 different types of "extreme weather chasers" here.
.
1. The best in the business of chasing and gathering scientific info, and doing it as safely as possible. Decades of experience, Samaras from all reports was a scientist first, and any money he made was an extra.
.
2. The best in the business for media presentation of another episode of "the closest we can get to death". TWC crew and Bettes came close, and we'll see how TWC and Bettes deal with storm chasing in the future.
.
3. The amateur in it strictly for the adrenaline rush and the money, money. Brandon Anderson's well-filmed clip appears to be a pre-planned run into the eye for the money bit...with the camera viewpoint nicely co-ordinated with the frantic fear as Anderson freaks on cue. CNN obliged by running the clip non-stop and just about every other channel piled on as Anderson gets the brass-ring and the dough. There's enough of the public, many of us, who pay-per-chase. Some naboob even posted the clip here first.
.
Shows how capricious these storms can be to take down the top in category 1 and 2.
.
I'd like to see the outcome be some community understanding amongst category 3 amateurs to allow for a buffer a few miles further away. And the media needs to take some responsibility and defer from showing the most sensational(I know, good luck).


The armatures need to ride along with professionals before going on their own.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting ScottLincoln:

I mostly agree. It was very intense, one of the more intense I recall seeing, and that is out of over 100 radar cases.

The reason NROT (bottom right) dropped out is because there are dropped velocity pixels. NROT will not calculate if velocity data is considered bad and unfixable and set to NoData. GR2Analyst tries to correct for radar aliasing(1), but in some cases it cannot do so. In those situations, you typically see dealiasing failures, where it shows the opposite color you expect in a big swath, usually from GR2Analyst leaving the velocity data as the raw data. In even more rare situations, it can't resolve what the velocity should be, and doesn't think it should be left as the raw data either, then sets the velocity pixels to NoData. As mentioned, velocity data that is set as NoData within the 9x9 pixel area used for the NROT calculation sets the calculation to NoData.
Numerous times I was having to go up a tilt to see what GR2Analyst was calculating for NROT because the bottom tilt was bad.

(1) aliasing is a somewhat common occurrence in strong winds where the speeds exceed what the radar can detect for the VCP (mode) that the radar is set to. It causes the radar to think that the wind speed is actually in the opposite direction - it goes off the scale to the top and starts back at the bottom. Dealiasing algorithms detect this abrupt jump from positive velocity to negative velocity (and vice versa) and try to assign the correct speed/direction.
I'm not at all familiar with the terrain in this region but I'm assuming this was occurring over mostly open fields, otherwise we should have a tornado rated higher than an EF-3...right? Because velocity readings don't appear to match up with an EF-3. Obviously we can't use radar's shear to directly measure a tornado, but we can get a rough idea for it's strength.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
20% on our little disturbance in the Caribbean.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24173

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.


up two 20%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
308. FOREX
Quoting ncstorm:
was offline all day and came back to see 495 new updates..catching up on the model runs now


Let us know your take on a possible track.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:
The CMC has, and always will be focused on the continent during the winter. It has never done well for the tropics, and quite honestly, likely never will. Its intent is to focus on Canada, during their worst weather season - the winter.
Are you an Environment Canada representative? You sure are putting a lot of words in their mouths. Their greatest concern is Canada (just as NCEP's greatest concern is the US), but the scope of their focus clearly extends far beyond Canada lol. Otherwise, they wouldn't bother wasting the time, money, effort, and resources to run and improve a global model...you don't just run a global model for fun.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
was offline all day and came back to see 495 new updates..catching up on the model runs now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:

No one is here. You're the only one left. Dr. Masters said to please turn out the lights when you leave. The electric bill is killing him.
Didn't I say to the Doc, "Doc, u gatta install solar panels on that there blog or the 'lectric bill's gonna kill ya"?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
304. VR46L
When I was watching the radar the twisters were changing the projected paths that the radar had plotted on the previous updates at one stage noving north the next time the triangles were showin south east !

It was just tragic bad luck . Sad thing is the work those guys do is to inform and save . of course there was a living on the edge buzz that I am sure that any spotter , chaser or recon personnel get doing it, but alot of what they do is essential in gaining valuable information for both weather science and the general public .

I am figuring alot of the non weather fans only see them as adrenaline seekers , not realizing that much of what they do is to help gain information on how storms behave and thus save lives .

Rest in peace
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Then where is everybody.


Most people are eating dinner, or enjoying their Sunday evening, now please do not troll. Otherwise taz might go Tasmanian devil on you.

They might but I doubt it. The deep convection has been warming the past few hours
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Then where is everybody.



off doing other sfuff there other things in life then this blog
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 352 - 302

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.