A Night of Tornado Chaos in Oklahoma City: 9 Killed, 71 Injured

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:21 PM GMT on June 01, 2013

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It was a terrifying evening of tornado chaos and extreme atmospheric violence in the Oklahoma City area on Friday. Three tornadoes touched down near the city, killing nine, injuring at least 71, and causing widespread destruction. Huge hail up to baseball-sized battered portions the the metro area, accompanied by torrential flooding rains, widespread damaging straight-line winds, and lightning that flashed nearly continuously. The strongest tornado, which touched down west of Oklahoma City in El Reno, has been preliminarily rated an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. The tornado warning for the storm was issued 19 minutes before it touched down. Two other EF-3 tornadoes touched down near St. Louis, Missouri, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged 20 preliminary tornado reports on Friday. Tinker Air Force Base on the east side of Oklahoma City reported sustained winds of 68 mph, gusting to 88 mph, at 8:09 pm CDT. The Oklahoma City airport had sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 71 mph at 7:26 pm. These winds were generated by the massive and powerful downdrafts from the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the El Reno tornado. Thankfully, Friday was likely the peak day for this week's severe weather outbreak, as SPC is calling for only a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Saturday and Sunday.


Figure 1. TWC's Mike ‪Bettes‬ crew caught this image of the El Reno, Oklahoma tornado of May 31, 2013 before the tornado caught them and rolled their vehicle.



Figure 2 and 3. Radar reflectivity (top) and Doppler velocity (bottom) images of the May 31, 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma tornado.


Figure 4. Preliminary tracks of the three tornadoes that touched done near Oklahoma City on May 31, 2013. Image credit: NWS Norman, OK.

Tornadoes and cars: a dangerous mix
A vehicle is about the worst place you can be in a tornado, as the tornado's winds can easily roll a car. (The only place less safe is probably a mobile home, as a tornado's winds can roll mobile homes almost as readily, and mobile homes don't come with seat belts and air bags.) At least five of the deaths in Friday's El Reno tornado occurred in vehicles attempting to flee. There was one local TV station that urged residents without underground shelters to get in their cars and "get south" in advance of the tornado that was approaching Oklahoma City, since chasers were reporting that the El Reno tornado may have been so strong that only an underground shelter would have provided adequate protection. This terrible piece of advice likely contributed to the incredible traffic jams that we saw on I-35, I-40, I-44, and other local roads Friday night. Thousands of cars were bumper-to-bumper on the roads as a dangerous tornado approached them. Had the El Reno tornado plowed directly down one of these car-choked interstates, the death toll could have easily exceeded 500. If you are located in a metro area and don't have an underground shelter, the best thing to do it to take shelter in an interior windowless room or hallway, with protective furniture over your body. Getting in a car and attempting to flee the tornado is the worst thing you can do in an urban area. You may not be able to see the tornado if it is dark or the tornado is wrapped in rain. You are likely to encounter hazardous winds, rain, and hail, run into unexpected traffic, or flooded or debris-blocked roads that will put you directly in the path of the tornado. Even without an underground shelter, most people will be able to survive a dangerous EF-4 tornado. Case in point: during the Mannford, Oklahoma EF-4 tornado of 1984, a packed church received a direct hit, and everyone in the church survived. The only fatality was a man who drove to the church to get his wife. (Thanks to wunderground member AGWcreationists for this link.) It's better to abandon your vehicle and take shelter in a ditch, if you are caught in a car during a tornado.


Video 1. The Weather Channel storm chasers weren't the only ones who got themselves in an extremely dangerous situation on May 31. StormChasingVideo.com storm chaser Brandon Sullivan and his chase partner Brett Wright got caught in the tornado northwest of Union City, OK and slammed with debris as the tornado hit a barn that exploded in front of them.


Video 2. When the hunters became the hunted: Weather Channel storm chasers ‪Mike Bettes and two photographers were in their Tornado Hunt vehicle when they were hit by a tornado in El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31,‬ ‪2013. ‬The tornado picked their car up off the ground and rolled it 6 - 8 times before depositing it in a field 200 yards away. All the occupants were wearing seat belts and the air bags deployed, likely saving their lives. Bettes sustained minor injuries, including stitches in his hand. It was the first injury sustained by a Weather Channel personality covering violent weather, according to company spokesperson Shirley Powell.

A storm chasers' nightmare
Cars and tornadoes can prove a dangerous mix even for the world's most experienced storm chasers. Driving at high speeds though heavy rain, large hail, and high winds is hazardous. If one is lucky enough to chase down a tornado, even the most experienced chasers can find themselves in a serious life-threatening situation when unpredictable events occur. Tornadoes by their nature are unpredictable, and can change course unexpectedly, or pop up suddenly. It's particularly dangerous when a tornado is wrapped in rain, making it hard to see, or if a chaser is operating in a heavily populated area, where roads may suddenly become congested. All four of these conditions occurred Friday during the El Reno tornado, and it is very fortunate that multiple chasers were not killed. The El Reno tornado was wrapped in rain and difficult to see as it headed west towards Oklahoma City. The twister suddenly made a jog to the southeast as a Weather Channel team led by Mike Bettes was attempting to get in front of the storm, and the tornado lifted their vehicle off the ground, rolled it multiple times, and hurled it 200 yards into a nearby field. StormChasingVideo.com storm chaser Brandon Sullivan and his chase partner Brett Wright got caught in the tornado northwest of Union City, OK and slammed with debris as the tornado hit a barn that exploded in front of them. Meteorologist Emily Sutton and storm chaser Kevin Josefy of local Oklahoma City TV station KFOR also had a very close call with the El Reno tornado Friday afternoon. They got too close to the tornado, and were forced to floor the car in reverse to escape flying debris. With branches of trees crashing around them, Sutton began feeling debris hitting her back, and realized that the rear windshield of the car must have gotten destroyed. Both were uninjured. Reed Timmer's armor-plated "Dominator" chase vehicle had its hood torn off by the tornado. Wunderground member Levi32 was out storm chasing during the El Reno Tornado, and got stuck in traffic on Highway 4 and couldn't move. "We looked up above the car and saw the wall cloud over top of us, with very quick rotation and rising scud indicating the updraft. We were definitely too close. We made it home safely last night, but not until after an insanely wild day. One hour of chasing turned into six more of being chased by at least 2 tornadoes and a 3rd wall cloud, one of which was the one that went right through downtown Oklahoma City. At one point we were stuck in traffic underneath the El Rino wall cloud watching rotating, rising scud directly above the car. I am hoping and praying that the daylight does not reveal more fatalities.

Would I go again? Yes, but not today, or tomorrow, and I would take even greater care. We had no clue we would get caught the way we did. I thought we had done everything right. We were kind of freaking out for a while. That velocity signature you guys saw with radar folding and multiple vortices - we were under the southern edge of it. We never got a clear view of the tornado, but we could tell just how close it was to our north. It was unreal. The inflow got pretty strong.

We were almost ready to jump out and take cover right before we found a route south, which ended up being slow. It became a six-lane highway south as everyone panicked and drove on the wrong side of the road. Even we did so. We thought we were clear until we saw the training of tornadic supercells on radar, all connected somehow. I've never seen anything like that. My best pictures of the day were of the wall cloud that followed behind the El Reno storm. We didn't see a funnel from that one either, but it chased us south for a long time, and we heard from radio that it spawned a confirmed tornado in Tuttle, when we realized that we were in Tuttle.

A third mesocyclone showed up behind that one as we continued slowly south, eventually reaching Blanchard. It looked weaker than the others but we weren't going to escape it, so we took shelter in a storm room in the local grocery store for about an hour. It then took a long time to find a way around the huge hail cores to get back home. Lightning flashes were occurring 10 times per second as we drove home in the dark. It was almost calming to watch as we got over the semi-shock that we were all in. None of us in the car had seen a tornado before. We didn't see one yesterday, but we were chased by two."



Video 3. Birth of the El Reno wedge tornado. As the tornado touched down, it produced a rare display of suction vortices.

Video 4. Storm chasers Jeff Piotrowski and Kathryn Piotrowski captured impressive footage of a double vortex tornado near El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31, 2013.

Severe storms causing major flooding
The 5.64" of rain that fell at the Oklahoma City Will Rogers Airport on Friday was their 6th wettest day in city history, and brought the total rainfall for the month of May to 14.52", the wettest May in Oklahoma City's history (Thanks to BaltimoreBrian for this link.) The North Canadian River in Oklahoma City rose sixteen feet in twelve hours, cresting at its 2nd highest flood on record this Saturday morning. The heavy rains have spread eastwards on Saturday, causing more flooding problems. Paducah, KY had its wettest June day and 3rd wettest day on record on June 1, with 5.73" of rain (all-time record: 7.49" on 9/5/1985.) Major flooding is occurring along a substantial stretch of the Mississippi River in Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri.


Figure 5. The North Canadian River in Oklahoma City rose sixteen feet in twelve hours, reaching its 2nd highest flood on record this Saturday morning.


Figure 6. Radar-estimated rainfall in the Oklahoma City area reached 8+" over some areas from Friday's storm.

Remains of Hurricane Barbara may bring heavy rains to Mexico, Florida, and Cuba
Today, June 1, is the official first day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, and we already have our first Atlantic tropical disturbance to talk about. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has left behind an area of disturbed weather over the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. There is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Barbara's remnants apparent on satellite loops this Saturday afternoon. Wind shear is a high 20 knots in the region, and the area of disturbed weather is quite small, so I don't expect any development to occur over the next few days. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday. Moisture from the remnants of Barbara may combine with moisture from an area of heavy thunderstorms expected to build over the Western Caribbean this weekend, and begin bringing heavy rains to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba on Sunday and Monday. These heavy rains may spread to Southwest Florida as early as Monday night. The computer models predict that this disturbance should be large and poorly organized, making development into a Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone unlikely.

My next post will be Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

LotsOfWater... (CalicoBass)
from the heavy rains overnight, flowing over this low water bridge. We were waiting to see if something about our size drove over it okay (we were in a Toyota Pickup), this is a bit bigger than us, lol.
LotsOfWater...
Sunset Strike (mrwing13)
NE Oklahoma is under the gun, again today. Severe weather, threatens to produce more damaging storms.
Sunset Strike
tornado (modernsourdough)
near bennington, ks
tornado

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Quoting AussieStorm:
It is with a heavy heart I bring you this sad news.

WeatherEvents.net ‏@weather_events
Tragic news circulating that highly respected storm chasers Tim Samaras & Carl Young were killed in the El Reno OK tornado yesterday. :(

Higgins Storm Chasing
Heart breaking and tragic news for the storm chasing and weather community today with the sad loss of storm chasers Tim Samaras, his son Paul Samaras and Carl Young. Tim Samaras was a weather scientist with National Geographic and starred on the Discovery Channel's series Storm Chasers with team Twistex, his son Paul Samaras was a talented photographer and also starred alongside his father Tim and Carl Young was a meteorologist and also part of the Twistex team. It is believed their car was struck by the El Reno, Oklahoma rain wrapped EF3 tornado yesterday. Our thoughts and prayers are with their families and friends as we mourn this tragic loss with them. May they rest in peace and watch and protect us all from above.



That is horrible news :(
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this is bad news here!! look at all the red in the northeast!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Well that's not something I expected to hear. Just goes to show it can happen to anyone.

Bummer.

I'm numb,,,, I don't know how I feel except numb. Tim Samaras and his crew were true leaders in Tornado science. This is truly shocking news.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
My area ended up with some intense sea breeze storms this evening! Over four inches of rain and it's still coming down at a moderate pace.


Great to hear it! We had 3.92 today and a power outage from a strong soaker here southeast of Clearwater FL, it brings our weekly total to over 5 inches. Needless to say I won't be complaining about a lack of rain anymore in Pinellas combining so far with likely much, much more rain over the next several days on the way ;)

Rainfall rates peaked around 5 inches per hour during the height of the thunderstorm. We are well into our deep tropical rainy season regime now in Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
It is with a heavy heart I bring you this sad news.

WeatherEvents.net ‏@weather_events
Tragic news circulating that highly respected storm chasers Tim Samaras & Carl Young were killed in the El Reno OK tornado yesterday. :(

Higgins Storm Chasing
Heart breaking and tragic news for the storm chasing and weather community today with the sad loss of storm chasers Tim Samaras, his son Paul Samaras and Carl Young. Tim Samaras was a weather scientist with National Geographic and starred on the Discovery Channel's series Storm Chasers with team Twistex, his son Paul Samaras was a talented photographer and also starred alongside his father Tim and Carl Young was a meteorologist and also part of the Twistex team. It is believed their car was struck by the El Reno, Oklahoma rain wrapped EF3 tornado yesterday. Our thoughts and prayers are with their families and friends as we mourn this tragic loss with them. May they rest in peace and watch and protect us all from above.


Well that's not something I expected to hear. Just goes to show it can happen to anyone.

Bummer.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hey how are you


Hanging in there.

How are things in paradise?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
It is with a heavy heart I bring you this sad news.

WeatherEvents.net ‏@weather_events
Tragic news circulating that highly respected storm chasers Tim Samaras & Carl Young were killed in the El Reno OK tornado yesterday. :(

Higgins Storm Chasing
Heart breaking and tragic news for the storm chasing and weather community today with the sad loss of storm chasers Tim Samaras, his son Paul Samaras and Carl Young. Tim Samaras was a weather scientist with National Geographic and starred on the Discovery Channel's series Storm Chasers with team Twistex, his son Paul Samaras was a talented photographer and also starred alongside his father Tim and Carl Young was a meteorologist and also part of the Twistex team. It is believed their car was struck by the El Reno, Oklahoma rain wrapped EF3 tornado yesterday. Our thoughts and prayers are with their families and friends as we mourn this tragic loss with them. May they rest in peace and watch and protect us all from above.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Ouch:

Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
Quoting KoritheMan:


There's actually quite a bit of westerly shear in that region:


hey how are you
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting Gearsts:
Look at that high building over our system.


There's actually quite a bit of westerly shear in that region:

Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302

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Quoting Gearsts:
That is expected to move E.

yep it E of our system it moving E and slightly weakening
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

actually the high is E of our system and according to the 2am TWD is weakening
That is expected to move E.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2000
Quoting Gearsts:
Look at that high building over our system.

actually the high is E of our system and according to the 2am TWD is weakening
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Look at that high building over our system.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2000
Quoting allancalderini:
If I remember correctly the CMC actually sniff and show the formation of Alvin and Barbara before any of the other models.

yeah but the thing is that CMC only gets it like 1 out of every 4 or so storms so CMC with the 2 Epac storms consecutively was very impressive but for this one I think it is and it will continue to have problems with this one other models also having problems with is as well so not too surprised either
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting FOREX:


If the CMC is so unreliable, why does it even exist? Seems like a waste of money and time to me.
If I remember correctly the CMC actually sniff and show the formation of Alvin and Barbara before any of the other models.
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+10. If you are educated, get out of harms way if possible!
Quoting TomTaylor:
Don't mean to mislead anyone here, but I respectfully disagree. I think it's a bit more situational than you are making it out to be. If I lived in an extremely remote town (minimal traffic), knew how to read radar (which I do) and could tell there was likely a violent tornado heading my way, I would leave as soon as possible. Living in the city (which most people do) is a totally different story, but I firmly believe there are cases (albeit only a few) when it is a better idea to get in the car and do something about your situation, rather than sit in your house and pray.
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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
113 AM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013

...OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH A GENERAL RIDGE/TROUGH ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN INTO
NEXT WEEKEND... THE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO CONTINUE FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS EASTWARD. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRESSURE /TROPICAL OR OTHERWISE/ EXITING THE
GULF VIA FLORIDA INTO THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UP THE EAST
COAST. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ABOUT THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS... WHICH CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY WITH EACH NEW
RUN. A USABLE CONSENSUS EXISTS THROUGH ABOUT FRI/D5 AMONG THE
GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF/ECENS MEAN CONUS-WIDE... BEFORE THE GFS/ECMWF
DIVERGE IN TIMING/TRACK OF ENERGY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AS
WELL AS ALONG THE EAST COAST. USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE GEFS AND
ECENS MEANS FOR DAYS 6-7 GIVEN THE LOWER PREDICTABILITY.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALL STAND THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
SOME PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK... WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OVER
FLORIDA. RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME UP THE EAST COAST /OR TO THE EAST?/... DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE LOW PRESSURE GOES. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG ALL
OF I-95 AS THE INCOMING FRONT MERGES WITH THE MOISTURE NEAR OR
OFFSHORE.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
399. FOREX
Quoting stormtopz1:
Start Your Engines!


I see lots of convection. What in the graphic impresses you the most?
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Start Your Engines!
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Quoting Gearsts:
Cyclone development is still far out according to the GFS, they are just saying than for the next 48 hours nothing is expected to develop and i agree but i also think that we will get something eventually.

I agree something will develop

models are inconsistent though I believe models are handling this system badly and we will just have to wait till it forms and maybe the hunters give the models the refining it need if you know what I mean
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting TomTaylor:
Don't mean to mislead anyone here, but I respectfully disagree. I think it's a bit more situational than you are making it out to be. If I lived in an extremely remote town (minimal traffic), knew how to read radar (which I do) and could tell there was likely a violent tornado heading my way, I would leave as soon as possible. Living in the city (which most people do) is a totally different story, but I firmly believe there are cases (albeit only a few) when it is a better idea to get in the car and do something about your situation, rather than sit in your house and pray.

There are a lot of "ifs" there, and for the vast majority of people, those ifs do not hold true. Sometimes, even for people that think that they do.

There may be a few situations where driving could lower your chances of injury/death (I've discussed those in previous posts), but they will be few. Even someone with experience will not know if the tornado will change direction or if a new storm will form in their path to create a new hazard, nor will you know the traffic conditions you may find. The statistics still remain: your chances of dying in a sturdy structure are much lower than in a vehicle. Your chances of dying when following the standard tornado advice are low, even when presented with a strong to violent tornado. There is a universal best practice... it is to get to the lowest floor of a sturdy structure in an interior room. Until strong evidence is made available to suggest otherwise (not anecdotes), that will remain the best practice.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3316
Quoting FOREX:


If the CMC is so unreliable, why does it even exist? Seems like a waste of money and time to me.
It is true it is one of the less reliable models when it comes to forecasting tropical cyclones. However, outside of the tropics, it is actually one of the better models available to us. It's also important to remember that even the least skillful model can be of use to a forecaster. Yes, the most skillful model should be taken with most consideration but it's always nice to get a variety of model solutions for a situation.
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Quoting Gearsts:
Cyclone development is still far out according to the GFS, they are just saying than for the next 48 hours nothing is expected to develop and i agree but i also think that we will get something eventually.


Yes, eventually we will get something.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
As I expected DEAD

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020508
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Cyclone development is still far out according to the GFS, they are just saying than for the next 48 hours nothing is expected to develop and i agree but i also think that we will get something eventually.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2000
It's clear that the CMC is the model wich present more error of the reliable models" NOT UNRELIABLE",but you can certainly count with him!!!!
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
As I expected DEAD

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020508
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
390. FOREX
Quoting Gearsts:
Not the CMC itself.


Oh ok,I understand. But their model seems to be a joke around here. Always seems to be an outlier.lol
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Quoting FOREX:


If the CMC is so unreliable, why does it even exist? Seems like a waste of money and time to me.
Not the CMC itself.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2000
Quoting Dakster:


That's like asking the sun not to set.

LOL
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting FOREX:


If the CMC is so unreliable, why does it even exist? Seems like a waste of money and time to me.

The folks that say this are ignorant...That's the best word!!
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
Quoting AussieStorm:

Make up your mind Taz....


That's like asking the sun not to set.

Regarding the CMC - sometimes it does get it right.
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Quoting FOREX:


If the CMC is so unreliable, why does it even exist? Seems like a waste of money and time to me.


Just no $$$ to make it better but they plan to do it eventually last I heard
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Quoting hurricane23:


And the return of long-trackers
Quoting hurricane23:


And the return of long-trackers
Quoting hurricane23:


And the return of long-trackers
definitely, That Bermuda high isnt going to budge. People will be complacent in the begining, but when that first major hits....it wont take them long to get it together. This is early, but i would advice people to stay in thier homes, if they are inland. If you live on a slab foundation, and a solid home, it is safer to stay home than evacuate into the land of chaos.
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383. FOREX
Quoting Gearsts:
Glitch


If the CMC is so unreliable, why does it even exist? Seems like a waste of money and time to me.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

There is a universal best practice to minimize your risk of death or serious injury in a tornado: get to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy structure.
Don't mean to mislead anyone here, but I respectfully disagree. I think it's a bit more situational than you are making it out to be. If I lived in a remote town (minimal traffic), knew how to read radar (which I do) and could tell there was likely a violent tornado heading my way, I would leave as soon as possible. Living in the city (which most people do) is a totally different story, but I firmly believe there are cases (albeit only a few) when it is a better idea to get in the car and do something about your situation, rather than sit in your house and pray.
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Quoting zoomiami:


I don't know about you - but it is already very squishy around here. Normally I love the rain, but it could slow down some.


Hello..

The latest runs of the GFS and ECWMF suggest the excessive rains (over a foot!) might be out over the Gulf. However, it could be here. Definitely a concern for flooding as PWATS look to rise to about 2.5" by mid week.
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Hello all!!! Good to see everyone again on this 2013 Hurricane Season! I will be lurking mostly but will post questions from time to time. I love this blog!!!
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Quoting stormchaser19:
WTF with the MSLP plot....LEVI?

BTW Hurricane Cat.1 By CMC,between Panama city and Tallahassee


Glitch
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2000
CMC

1. Too Strong
2. Too Far North
3. Too Fast (slightly)
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Quoting hurricane23:


Canadian has been horrid of late. For now i dont see much more then a large messy system moving very slowly across florida. Flooding potential is high though


I don't know about you - but it is already very squishy around here. Normally I love the rain, but it could slow down some.
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WTF with the MSLP plot....LEVI?

BTW Hurricane Cat.1 By CMC,between Panama city and Tallahassee


Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
Quoting scott39:
I remember literally watching powerful TCs develope in a very short amount of time in 2004 and especially in 2005. Same ingredients in the atmosphere and water then, are forecasted for this season.


And the return of long-trackers
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Quoting scottsvb:
CMC does develop things alittle too fast. Still the GFS is showing 1001mb at it's strongest...which means 999 or 1000mb in realtime (models are usually 1-2mb weaker than expected) but not always....nothing is exact


Canadian has been horrid of late. For now i dont see much more then a large messy system moving very slowly across florida. Flooding potential is high though
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I remember literally watching powerful TCs develope in a very short amount of time in 2004 and especially in 2005. Same ingredients in the atmosphere and water then, are forecasted for this season.
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78 Hours!!!cmc
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
Quoting sar2401:

It's Photoshopped. The only place this image shows up in a Google image search is the one here on the blog. There should be another copy on the web somewhere if it was real.
So you're accusing me of photoshopping it? Wow, that's pretty low. I found this on Twitter and it looks legit because it was posted by a woman who took the picture while going out on errand. There's nothing fishy about her Twitter account either.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8074
Quoting scottsvb:
If for example the GFS is correct on this run..landfall is around 1002mbs.. winds 45-50mph. If the LLC is closer to the convection...it could be alittle stronger around 55-60mph but if its MLM is far east of the LLC..then 40-45mph will be at landfall..but again it's all speculation for another 24hrs at least.


I think will be more close to a 50-60 mph storm!!!But is like you said speculation!!!
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
This season is going to remind people of the 2004 2005 season.
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If for example the GFS is correct on this run..landfall is around 1002mbs.. winds 45-50mph. If the LLC is closer to the convection...it could be alittle stronger around 55-60mph but if its MLM is far east of the LLC..then 40-45mph will be at landfall..but again it's all speculation for another 24hrs at least.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron