A Night of Tornado Chaos in Oklahoma City: 9 Killed, 71 Injured

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:21 PM GMT on June 01, 2013

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It was a terrifying evening of tornado chaos and extreme atmospheric violence in the Oklahoma City area on Friday. Three tornadoes touched down near the city, killing nine, injuring at least 71, and causing widespread destruction. Huge hail up to baseball-sized battered portions the the metro area, accompanied by torrential flooding rains, widespread damaging straight-line winds, and lightning that flashed nearly continuously. The strongest tornado, which touched down west of Oklahoma City in El Reno, has been preliminarily rated an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. The tornado warning for the storm was issued 19 minutes before it touched down. Two other EF-3 tornadoes touched down near St. Louis, Missouri, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged 20 preliminary tornado reports on Friday. Tinker Air Force Base on the east side of Oklahoma City reported sustained winds of 68 mph, gusting to 88 mph, at 8:09 pm CDT. The Oklahoma City airport had sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 71 mph at 7:26 pm. These winds were generated by the massive and powerful downdrafts from the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the El Reno tornado. Thankfully, Friday was likely the peak day for this week's severe weather outbreak, as SPC is calling for only a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Saturday and Sunday.


Figure 1. TWC's Mike ‪Bettes‬ crew caught this image of the El Reno, Oklahoma tornado of May 31, 2013 before the tornado caught them and rolled their vehicle.



Figure 2 and 3. Radar reflectivity (top) and Doppler velocity (bottom) images of the May 31, 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma tornado.


Figure 4. Preliminary tracks of the three tornadoes that touched done near Oklahoma City on May 31, 2013. Image credit: NWS Norman, OK.

Tornadoes and cars: a dangerous mix
A vehicle is about the worst place you can be in a tornado, as the tornado's winds can easily roll a car. (The only place less safe is probably a mobile home, as a tornado's winds can roll mobile homes almost as readily, and mobile homes don't come with seat belts and air bags.) At least five of the deaths in Friday's El Reno tornado occurred in vehicles attempting to flee. There was one local TV station that urged residents without underground shelters to get in their cars and "get south" in advance of the tornado that was approaching Oklahoma City, since chasers were reporting that the El Reno tornado may have been so strong that only an underground shelter would have provided adequate protection. This terrible piece of advice likely contributed to the incredible traffic jams that we saw on I-35, I-40, I-44, and other local roads Friday night. Thousands of cars were bumper-to-bumper on the roads as a dangerous tornado approached them. Had the El Reno tornado plowed directly down one of these car-choked interstates, the death toll could have easily exceeded 500. If you are located in a metro area and don't have an underground shelter, the best thing to do it to take shelter in an interior windowless room or hallway, with protective furniture over your body. Getting in a car and attempting to flee the tornado is the worst thing you can do in an urban area. You may not be able to see the tornado if it is dark or the tornado is wrapped in rain. You are likely to encounter hazardous winds, rain, and hail, run into unexpected traffic, or flooded or debris-blocked roads that will put you directly in the path of the tornado. Even without an underground shelter, most people will be able to survive a dangerous EF-4 tornado. Case in point: during the Mannford, Oklahoma EF-4 tornado of 1984, a packed church received a direct hit, and everyone in the church survived. The only fatality was a man who drove to the church to get his wife. (Thanks to wunderground member AGWcreationists for this link.) It's better to abandon your vehicle and take shelter in a ditch, if you are caught in a car during a tornado.


Video 1. The Weather Channel storm chasers weren't the only ones who got themselves in an extremely dangerous situation on May 31. StormChasingVideo.com storm chaser Brandon Sullivan and his chase partner Brett Wright got caught in the tornado northwest of Union City, OK and slammed with debris as the tornado hit a barn that exploded in front of them.


Video 2. When the hunters became the hunted: Weather Channel storm chasers ‪Mike Bettes and two photographers were in their Tornado Hunt vehicle when they were hit by a tornado in El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31,‬ ‪2013. ‬The tornado picked their car up off the ground and rolled it 6 - 8 times before depositing it in a field 200 yards away. All the occupants were wearing seat belts and the air bags deployed, likely saving their lives. Bettes sustained minor injuries, including stitches in his hand. It was the first injury sustained by a Weather Channel personality covering violent weather, according to company spokesperson Shirley Powell.

A storm chasers' nightmare
Cars and tornadoes can prove a dangerous mix even for the world's most experienced storm chasers. Driving at high speeds though heavy rain, large hail, and high winds is hazardous. If one is lucky enough to chase down a tornado, even the most experienced chasers can find themselves in a serious life-threatening situation when unpredictable events occur. Tornadoes by their nature are unpredictable, and can change course unexpectedly, or pop up suddenly. It's particularly dangerous when a tornado is wrapped in rain, making it hard to see, or if a chaser is operating in a heavily populated area, where roads may suddenly become congested. All four of these conditions occurred Friday during the El Reno tornado, and it is very fortunate that multiple chasers were not killed. The El Reno tornado was wrapped in rain and difficult to see as it headed west towards Oklahoma City. The twister suddenly made a jog to the southeast as a Weather Channel team led by Mike Bettes was attempting to get in front of the storm, and the tornado lifted their vehicle off the ground, rolled it multiple times, and hurled it 200 yards into a nearby field. StormChasingVideo.com storm chaser Brandon Sullivan and his chase partner Brett Wright got caught in the tornado northwest of Union City, OK and slammed with debris as the tornado hit a barn that exploded in front of them. Meteorologist Emily Sutton and storm chaser Kevin Josefy of local Oklahoma City TV station KFOR also had a very close call with the El Reno tornado Friday afternoon. They got too close to the tornado, and were forced to floor the car in reverse to escape flying debris. With branches of trees crashing around them, Sutton began feeling debris hitting her back, and realized that the rear windshield of the car must have gotten destroyed. Both were uninjured. Reed Timmer's armor-plated "Dominator" chase vehicle had its hood torn off by the tornado. Wunderground member Levi32 was out storm chasing during the El Reno Tornado, and got stuck in traffic on Highway 4 and couldn't move. "We looked up above the car and saw the wall cloud over top of us, with very quick rotation and rising scud indicating the updraft. We were definitely too close. We made it home safely last night, but not until after an insanely wild day. One hour of chasing turned into six more of being chased by at least 2 tornadoes and a 3rd wall cloud, one of which was the one that went right through downtown Oklahoma City. At one point we were stuck in traffic underneath the El Rino wall cloud watching rotating, rising scud directly above the car. I am hoping and praying that the daylight does not reveal more fatalities.

Would I go again? Yes, but not today, or tomorrow, and I would take even greater care. We had no clue we would get caught the way we did. I thought we had done everything right. We were kind of freaking out for a while. That velocity signature you guys saw with radar folding and multiple vortices - we were under the southern edge of it. We never got a clear view of the tornado, but we could tell just how close it was to our north. It was unreal. The inflow got pretty strong.

We were almost ready to jump out and take cover right before we found a route south, which ended up being slow. It became a six-lane highway south as everyone panicked and drove on the wrong side of the road. Even we did so. We thought we were clear until we saw the training of tornadic supercells on radar, all connected somehow. I've never seen anything like that. My best pictures of the day were of the wall cloud that followed behind the El Reno storm. We didn't see a funnel from that one either, but it chased us south for a long time, and we heard from radio that it spawned a confirmed tornado in Tuttle, when we realized that we were in Tuttle.

A third mesocyclone showed up behind that one as we continued slowly south, eventually reaching Blanchard. It looked weaker than the others but we weren't going to escape it, so we took shelter in a storm room in the local grocery store for about an hour. It then took a long time to find a way around the huge hail cores to get back home. Lightning flashes were occurring 10 times per second as we drove home in the dark. It was almost calming to watch as we got over the semi-shock that we were all in. None of us in the car had seen a tornado before. We didn't see one yesterday, but we were chased by two."



Video 3. Birth of the El Reno wedge tornado. As the tornado touched down, it produced a rare display of suction vortices.

Video 4. Storm chasers Jeff Piotrowski and Kathryn Piotrowski captured impressive footage of a double vortex tornado near El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31, 2013.

Severe storms causing major flooding
The 5.64" of rain that fell at the Oklahoma City Will Rogers Airport on Friday was their 6th wettest day in city history, and brought the total rainfall for the month of May to 14.52", the wettest May in Oklahoma City's history (Thanks to BaltimoreBrian for this link.) The North Canadian River in Oklahoma City rose sixteen feet in twelve hours, cresting at its 2nd highest flood on record this Saturday morning. The heavy rains have spread eastwards on Saturday, causing more flooding problems. Paducah, KY had its wettest June day and 3rd wettest day on record on June 1, with 5.73" of rain (all-time record: 7.49" on 9/5/1985.) Major flooding is occurring along a substantial stretch of the Mississippi River in Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri.


Figure 5. The North Canadian River in Oklahoma City rose sixteen feet in twelve hours, reaching its 2nd highest flood on record this Saturday morning.


Figure 6. Radar-estimated rainfall in the Oklahoma City area reached 8+" over some areas from Friday's storm.

Remains of Hurricane Barbara may bring heavy rains to Mexico, Florida, and Cuba
Today, June 1, is the official first day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, and we already have our first Atlantic tropical disturbance to talk about. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has left behind an area of disturbed weather over the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. There is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Barbara's remnants apparent on satellite loops this Saturday afternoon. Wind shear is a high 20 knots in the region, and the area of disturbed weather is quite small, so I don't expect any development to occur over the next few days. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday. Moisture from the remnants of Barbara may combine with moisture from an area of heavy thunderstorms expected to build over the Western Caribbean this weekend, and begin bringing heavy rains to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba on Sunday and Monday. These heavy rains may spread to Southwest Florida as early as Monday night. The computer models predict that this disturbance should be large and poorly organized, making development into a Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone unlikely.

My next post will be Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

LotsOfWater... (CalicoBass)
from the heavy rains overnight, flowing over this low water bridge. We were waiting to see if something about our size drove over it okay (we were in a Toyota Pickup), this is a bit bigger than us, lol.
LotsOfWater...
Sunset Strike (mrwing13)
NE Oklahoma is under the gun, again today. Severe weather, threatens to produce more damaging storms.
Sunset Strike
tornado (modernsourdough)
near bennington, ks
tornado

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Good Morning
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:


REPOST

While this may be a totally unsound meteorological comparison, I did some research using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and found that in over 90% of the hurricane seasons since 1950, the storm tracks tend to resemble the surface pressure patterns established in the April to May timeframe. In areas where high pressure dominates in April to May, the storms generally seem to avoid these areas during the hurricane season but they tend to congregate where the pressure are lower in April to May.

This year in April to May, we have seen extremely high pressures persist near the North-eastern US and Eastern Canada both at the surface and the 500mb levels with lower pressures in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the North-eastern Atlantic near the Azores.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Based on that theory, we may see our storm tracks this year resemble that of the 1996, 1998 and 2004 hurricane seasons (1996 and 2004 both being CSU's analog years). In those seasons, There were 2 primary sets of storms tracks:

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

1. A noticeable congregation of powerful Cape Verde hurricanes that moved westwards under the ridge and into the Caribbean and the United States.

2. Rapidly recurving storms in the far Eastern Atlantic near the Azores that did not affect land.

I believe we may see a similar pattern in 2013.

Again, while this may be an unsound meteorological assertion, the correlation seemed to work in about 90% of all hurricane seasons since 1950 and therefore it deserves some sort of recognition.




Good Morning SLU..
That is very interesting..
Storms recurving in the East Atlantic..
While , for lack of another term, a "funneling" effect in the lower Lats..
Into the Carribean Basin..
And GOM bound storms..
Everytime I see the 2004 tracks I cringe..
I guess the only variable I see not accounted for is the Bermuda High and it's effects on the analysis..
Nice job..
Thanks for the explanation..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From earlier.....


412. AussieStorm 7:19 AM GMT on June 02, 2013
It is with a heavy heart I bring you this sad news.

WeatherEvents.net ‏@weather_events
Tragic news circulating that highly respected storm chasers Tim Samaras & Carl Young were killed in the El Reno OK tornado yesterday. :(

Higgins Storm Chasing
Heartbreaking and tragic news for the storm chasing and weather community today with the sad loss of storm chasers Tim Samaras, his son Paul Samaras and Carl Young. Tim Samaras was a weather scientist with National Geographic and starred on the Discovery Channel's series Storm Chasers with team Twistex, his son Paul Samaras was a talented photographer and also starred alongside his father Tim and Carl Young was a meteorologist and also part of the Twistex team. It is believed their car was struck by the El Reno, Oklahoma rain wrapped EF3 tornado yesterday. Our thoughts and prayers are with their families and friends as we mourn this tragic loss with them. May they rest in peace and watch and protect us all from above.
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Be careful if you watch video #1 above , make sure you have your volume down before 1:18 . The guy is spazzing out . He should just chill like the guy in the back seat . LOL

Looks like a heavy rain event here in SoFla . I'm happy for that but sure hope the folks in OK can catch a break .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
464. SLU
Quoting KoritheMan:


That was the 500 mb height anomaly (the anomaly is relative to the 1981-2010 climatological baseline) map from April 1 through May 25 of this year. Meaning, the pattern's been like this the last two months. There is evidence to suggest it could persist into at least July, because the equatorial Pacific is showing neither El Nino or La Nina at the moment, so it is likely that any significant changes in the planetary circulation pattern will be controlled primarily by ENSO (the state of the waters in the equatorial Pacfic).

Again, there's no solid evidence to suggest this will persist into August or September, which is when it actually matters. But if it does, the main concentration of storm tracks year will primarily be focused in the Gulf Coast.


REPOST

While this may be a totally unsound meteorological comparison, I did some research using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and found that in over 90% of the hurricane seasons since 1950, the storm tracks tend to resemble the surface pressure patterns established in the April to May timeframe. In areas where high pressure dominates in April to May, the storms generally seem to avoid these areas during the hurricane season but they tend to congregate where the pressures are lower in April to May.

This year in April to May, we have seen extremely high pressures persist near the North-eastern US and Eastern Canada both at the surface and the 500mb levels with lower pressures in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the North-eastern Atlantic near the Azores.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Based on that theory, we may see our storm tracks this year resemble that of the 1996, 1998 and 2004 hurricane seasons (1996 and 2004 both being CSU's analog years). In those seasons, There were 2 primary sets of storms tracks:

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

1. A noticeable congregation of powerful Cape Verde hurricanes that moved westwards under the ridge and into the Caribbean and the United States.

2. Rapidly recurving storms in the far Eastern Atlantic near the Azores that did not affect land.

I believe we may see a similar pattern in 2013.

Again, while this may be an unsound meteorological assertion, the correlation seemed to work in about 90% of all hurricane seasons since 1950 and therefore it deserves some sort of recognition.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
463. etxwx
Good morning everyone.
Had an inch of rain last night and looks like more on the way. No watches or warning for me so far. Current temp is 68F....lots better than the 100F temps we were having this time of year in 2011. I'm happy.

Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1516
Quoting SLU:


Declared dead


This means that 91L will be up soon.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14542
461. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al902013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306021130
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END


Declared dead
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wonder why they would deactivate the invest (again)? It is going to take a few days to come together. Either "un-invest" it until it gets its act together or leave it an invest as it takes its time to form.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al902013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306021130
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14542
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14542
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
422 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A MONSOON TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN COMBINED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BARBARA ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTLINE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS
STILL HAS SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...SPINNING OFF A LOW OFF
THE COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT
HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF. THE 12Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A LITTLE WEAKER LOW AND IS ABOUT 6-HOURS FASTER
THAN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUN. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z/00Z
ECMWF...SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE
ECMWF. MODELS ARE COMING INTO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS MAY
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
almost 19 inches according to GFS




From the Miami NWS Disco...

AN ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD 5-10
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ON TOP OF THE
HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD CONCEIVABLY RECEIVE MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THIS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. SO THERE ARE INCREASING CONCERNS ABOUT FLOODING
ACROSS THE REGION AND FLOOD WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.
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almost 19 inches according to GFS


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00z Euro






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Good Sunday Morning

00z CMC









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Good morning...Everything is coming together for a big rain event...



From Miami NWS Disco

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA ON MONDAY...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PULLING THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND TOWARDS THE NAPLES REGION. A
500MB TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXTEND TO THE NORTHEAST OFF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION...ADDING TO THE LIFT
OVER THE REGION. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND POSSIBLY SLOWLY
DEVELOP AS IT DOES SO IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. STEADIER AREA-WIDE
HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS...AND EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE CONTINUES ALOFT. GUIDANCE
IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 30-40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2.5
INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND EVEN EMBEDDED
TROPICAL MINI SUPERCELLS RACING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR MID LEVEL
AIR WRAPPING INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAIL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY. A MORE TYPICAL WET SEASON PATTERN MAY THEN FINALLY PREVAIL
ON SATURDAY.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

Maybe in some situations, but not last night. During the event, radar data was not ambiguous that a significant tornado situation was unfolding. This was independent of any data that might have been reported to TV and the NWS in realtime.


That was definitely the case. The on-air TWC personalities were expressing concern about Bettis' situation - they knew where he was and saw the radar signature of the tornado go right where he was - before he called in that he had been hit.
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Case in point: during the Mannsford, Oklahoma EF- 4 tornado of 1984, a packed church received a direct hit, and everyone in the church survived.

I remember the news of that storm well. I was living in Stillwater, OK at the time and drove through Mannford often. They had (might still have) a donut shop with great sausage rolls, would always stop there and get one. The tornado fortunately missed the donut shop. The account of the one guy killed being in his car to go get his wife out of the church and getting his car wrapped around a tree with him in it was an object lesson on what NOT to do when a tornado is bearing down on you.
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well, if this hypothetical CMC storm comes true (which it probably will not, because we all know CMC can't go a season with out at least a 25% ghost storm rate) then where exactly would this go?
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Quoting bigwes6844:
not to be rude or nothing but is dat his truck or car that was pushed on the side when mike bettes crew was flipped? if u look closely at 00:23 seconds


No. That video was of the Weather Channel guys. They all survived. Paul and his crew worked for the discovery channel on the show 'Storm Chasers'
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Quoting yonzabam:


Doesn't the pressure situation change all the time, or does high pressure in the NE tend to persist? I've noticed a persistent trough off SE Canada the past two seasons, which has recurved lots of storms.


As far as I'm aware, global pressure patterns are determined by a variety of phenomena, so yes, in theory they could change at a moment's notice. However, things have been like this for two months, but so far ENSO seems to be the primary steering influence (as it usually is), and with no sign of transitioning to either extreme (El Niño or La Niña), theere are no reasons to believe it will abate yet.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
so how early will we know the pattern for august?


We should have a better handle on things next month, but we still won't actually "know", if that makes sense.
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Quoting anotherwrongyear:
people were quoting south florida and central florida and showing maps where daytona was in the 10-20 inch mark oh well just another false alram here as usual


Oh, my bad. I didn't look at your name. You are one of those people. Later.
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Storm chasing will NEVER be the same again
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Quoting anotherwrongyear:
we are still waiting for that 10 to 20 inches of rain they everyone has been saying the past 2 days that daytona beach florida will get... so far nothing


When did Daytona Beach get relocated to South Florida? I am not sure who said 10-20 inches, but the forecast from HPC was 7-10 inches for SOUTH FLORIDA. Many locations received 3-5 inches in South Florida yesterday. HPC has backed off slightly and is forecasting 4-8 inches for SOUTH FLORIDA. For Daytona Beach, 3-4 inches over the next 7 days.
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439. FOREX
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
we are still waiting for that 10 to 20 inches of rain they everyone has been saying the past 2 days that daytona beach florida will get... so far nothing


I guess that was when the remnants of Barbara were still news.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


That was the 500 mb height anomaly (the anomaly is relative to the 1981-2010 climatological baseline) map from April 1 through May 25 of this year. Meaning, the pattern's been like this the last two months. There is evidence to suggest it could persist into at least July, because the equatorial Pacific is showing neither El Nino or La Nina at the moment, so it is likely that any significant changes in the planetary circulation pattern will be controlled primarily by ENSO (the state of the waters in the equatorial Pacfic).

Again, there's no solid evidence to suggest this will persist into August or September, which is when it actually matters. But if it does, the main concentration of storm tracks year will primarily be focused in the Gulf Coast.
so how early will we know the pattern for august?
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Hold down the fort guys!
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Kori or anybody when is that suppose to be happening with that map


That was the 500 mb height anomaly (the anomaly is relative to the 1981-2010 climatological baseline) map from April 1 through May 25 of this year. Meaning, the pattern's been like this the last two months. There is evidence to suggest it could persist into at least July, because the equatorial Pacific is showing neither El Nino or La Nina at the moment, so it is likely that any significant changes in the planetary circulation pattern will be controlled primarily by ENSO (the state of the waters in the equatorial Pacfic).

Again, there's no solid evidence to suggest this will persist into August or September, which is when it actually matters. But if it does, the main concentration of storm tracks year will primarily be focused in the Gulf Coast.
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Kori or anybody when is that suppose to be happening with that map
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Caribbean Buoy 42056

Conditions at 42056 as of
(2:50 am CDT)
0750 GMT on 06/02/2013:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 130 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 106 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.4 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 78.4 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 92.1 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 19.4 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 19.4 kts
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Quoting KoritheMan:


High pressure in the northeast and low pressure in the central US. Since hurricanes can't literally bust high pressure domes, they have to go around it through the weakness; in this case, the weakness is in the right location for United States landfalls, particularly the Gulf Coast.


Doesn't the pressure situation change all the time, or does high pressure in the NE tend to persist? I've noticed a persistent trough off SE Canada the past two seasons, which has recurved lots of storms.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


High pressure in the northeast and low pressure in the central US. Since hurricanes can't literally bust high pressure domes, they have to go around it through the weakness; in this case, the weakness is in the right location for United States landfalls, particularly the Gulf Coast.
oh no! how long is this pattern Kori! This is bad!
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I have not watched the video.
its on here now just scroll up when doc made the blog its the 40 sec one
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Quoting bigwes6844:
not to be rude or nothing but is dat his truck or car that was pushed on the side when mike bettes crew was flipped? if u look closely at 00:23 seconds
I have not watched the video.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
What does this all mean?


High pressure in the northeast and low pressure in the central US. Since hurricanes can't literally bust high pressure domes, they have to go around it through the weakness; in this case, the weakness is in the right location for United States landfalls, particularly the Gulf Coast.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


What a major bummer! I remember watching the guy on Storm Chasers.
not to be rude or nothing but is dat his truck or car that was pushed on the side when mike bettes crew was flipped? if u look closely at 00:23 seconds
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Quoting hurricanes2018:
this is bad news here!! look at all the red in the northeast!
What does this all mean?
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Quoting AussieStorm:
It is with a heavy heart I bring you this sad news.

WeatherEvents.net ‏@weather_events
Tragic news circulating that highly respected storm chasers Tim Samaras & Carl Young were killed in the El Reno OK tornado yesterday. :(

Higgins Storm Chasing
Heart breaking and tragic news for the storm chasing and weather community today with the sad loss of storm chasers Tim Samaras, his son Paul Samaras and Carl Young. Tim Samaras was a weather scientist with National Geographic and starred on the Discovery Channel's series Storm Chasers with team Twistex, his son Paul Samaras was a talented photographer and also starred alongside his father Tim and Carl Young was a meteorologist and also part of the Twistex team. It is believed their car was struck by the El Reno, Oklahoma rain wrapped EF3 tornado yesterday. Our thoughts and prayers are with their families and friends as we mourn this tragic loss with them. May they rest in peace and watch and protect us all from above.


What a major bummer! I remember watching the guy on Storm Chasers.
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Hard to fully put into words my thoughts on the developing situation. Samaras' feature speaker talk at the Des Moines Severe Storms and Doppler Radar Conference (probe data from Manchester EF4) was one of the things I remember as stirring my interest in tornadoes and severe weather meteorology. In person he gave off such a strong, repectable character vibe. He made you feel like you were doing real help for the science. My first (and so far, only) "inside a tornado" experience was on the TWISTEX team.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3226
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm numb,,,, I don't know how I feel except numb. Tim Samaras and his crew were true leaders in Tornado science. This is truly shocking news.


Makes me think twice about ever storm chasing alone. I think this was pretty much the tipping point that I need to bring somebody else with me.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
It is with a heavy heart I bring you this sad news.

WeatherEvents.net ‏@weather_events
Tragic news circulating that highly respected storm chasers Tim Samaras & Carl Young were killed in the El Reno OK tornado yesterday. :(

Higgins Storm Chasing
Heart breaking and tragic news for the storm chasing and weather community today with the sad loss of storm chasers Tim Samaras, his son Paul Samaras and Carl Young. Tim Samaras was a weather scientist with National Geographic and starred on the Discovery Channel's series Storm Chasers with team Twistex, his son Paul Samaras was a talented photographer and also starred alongside his father Tim and Carl Young was a meteorologist and also part of the Twistex team. It is believed their car was struck by the El Reno, Oklahoma rain wrapped EF3 tornado yesterday. Our thoughts and prayers are with their families and friends as we mourn this tragic loss with them. May they rest in peace and watch and protect us all from above.



That is horrible news :(
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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