A Night of Tornado Chaos in Oklahoma City: 9 Killed, 71 Injured

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:21 PM GMT on June 01, 2013

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It was a terrifying evening of tornado chaos and extreme atmospheric violence in the Oklahoma City area on Friday. Three tornadoes touched down near the city, killing nine, injuring at least 71, and causing widespread destruction. Huge hail up to baseball-sized battered portions the the metro area, accompanied by torrential flooding rains, widespread damaging straight-line winds, and lightning that flashed nearly continuously. The strongest tornado, which touched down west of Oklahoma City in El Reno, has been preliminarily rated an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. The tornado warning for the storm was issued 19 minutes before it touched down. Two other EF-3 tornadoes touched down near St. Louis, Missouri, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged 20 preliminary tornado reports on Friday. Tinker Air Force Base on the east side of Oklahoma City reported sustained winds of 68 mph, gusting to 88 mph, at 8:09 pm CDT. The Oklahoma City airport had sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 71 mph at 7:26 pm. These winds were generated by the massive and powerful downdrafts from the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the El Reno tornado. Thankfully, Friday was likely the peak day for this week's severe weather outbreak, as SPC is calling for only a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Saturday and Sunday.


Figure 1. TWC's Mike ‪Bettes‬ crew caught this image of the El Reno, Oklahoma tornado of May 31, 2013 before the tornado caught them and rolled their vehicle.



Figure 2 and 3. Radar reflectivity (top) and Doppler velocity (bottom) images of the May 31, 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma tornado.


Figure 4. Preliminary tracks of the three tornadoes that touched done near Oklahoma City on May 31, 2013. Image credit: NWS Norman, OK.

Tornadoes and cars: a dangerous mix
A vehicle is about the worst place you can be in a tornado, as the tornado's winds can easily roll a car. (The only place less safe is probably a mobile home, as a tornado's winds can roll mobile homes almost as readily, and mobile homes don't come with seat belts and air bags.) At least five of the deaths in Friday's El Reno tornado occurred in vehicles attempting to flee. There was one local TV station that urged residents without underground shelters to get in their cars and "get south" in advance of the tornado that was approaching Oklahoma City, since chasers were reporting that the El Reno tornado may have been so strong that only an underground shelter would have provided adequate protection. This terrible piece of advice likely contributed to the incredible traffic jams that we saw on I-35, I-40, I-44, and other local roads Friday night. Thousands of cars were bumper-to-bumper on the roads as a dangerous tornado approached them. Had the El Reno tornado plowed directly down one of these car-choked interstates, the death toll could have easily exceeded 500. If you are located in a metro area and don't have an underground shelter, the best thing to do it to take shelter in an interior windowless room or hallway, with protective furniture over your body. Getting in a car and attempting to flee the tornado is the worst thing you can do in an urban area. You may not be able to see the tornado if it is dark or the tornado is wrapped in rain. You are likely to encounter hazardous winds, rain, and hail, run into unexpected traffic, or flooded or debris-blocked roads that will put you directly in the path of the tornado. Even without an underground shelter, most people will be able to survive a dangerous EF-4 tornado. Case in point: during the Mannford, Oklahoma EF-4 tornado of 1984, a packed church received a direct hit, and everyone in the church survived. The only fatality was a man who drove to the church to get his wife. (Thanks to wunderground member AGWcreationists for this link.) It's better to abandon your vehicle and take shelter in a ditch, if you are caught in a car during a tornado.


Video 1. The Weather Channel storm chasers weren't the only ones who got themselves in an extremely dangerous situation on May 31. StormChasingVideo.com storm chaser Brandon Sullivan and his chase partner Brett Wright got caught in the tornado northwest of Union City, OK and slammed with debris as the tornado hit a barn that exploded in front of them.


Video 2. When the hunters became the hunted: Weather Channel storm chasers ‪Mike Bettes and two photographers were in their Tornado Hunt vehicle when they were hit by a tornado in El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31,‬ ‪2013. ‬The tornado picked their car up off the ground and rolled it 6 - 8 times before depositing it in a field 200 yards away. All the occupants were wearing seat belts and the air bags deployed, likely saving their lives. Bettes sustained minor injuries, including stitches in his hand. It was the first injury sustained by a Weather Channel personality covering violent weather, according to company spokesperson Shirley Powell.

A storm chasers' nightmare
Cars and tornadoes can prove a dangerous mix even for the world's most experienced storm chasers. Driving at high speeds though heavy rain, large hail, and high winds is hazardous. If one is lucky enough to chase down a tornado, even the most experienced chasers can find themselves in a serious life-threatening situation when unpredictable events occur. Tornadoes by their nature are unpredictable, and can change course unexpectedly, or pop up suddenly. It's particularly dangerous when a tornado is wrapped in rain, making it hard to see, or if a chaser is operating in a heavily populated area, where roads may suddenly become congested. All four of these conditions occurred Friday during the El Reno tornado, and it is very fortunate that multiple chasers were not killed. The El Reno tornado was wrapped in rain and difficult to see as it headed west towards Oklahoma City. The twister suddenly made a jog to the southeast as a Weather Channel team led by Mike Bettes was attempting to get in front of the storm, and the tornado lifted their vehicle off the ground, rolled it multiple times, and hurled it 200 yards into a nearby field. StormChasingVideo.com storm chaser Brandon Sullivan and his chase partner Brett Wright got caught in the tornado northwest of Union City, OK and slammed with debris as the tornado hit a barn that exploded in front of them. Meteorologist Emily Sutton and storm chaser Kevin Josefy of local Oklahoma City TV station KFOR also had a very close call with the El Reno tornado Friday afternoon. They got too close to the tornado, and were forced to floor the car in reverse to escape flying debris. With branches of trees crashing around them, Sutton began feeling debris hitting her back, and realized that the rear windshield of the car must have gotten destroyed. Both were uninjured. Reed Timmer's armor-plated "Dominator" chase vehicle had its hood torn off by the tornado. Wunderground member Levi32 was out storm chasing during the El Reno Tornado, and got stuck in traffic on Highway 4 and couldn't move. "We looked up above the car and saw the wall cloud over top of us, with very quick rotation and rising scud indicating the updraft. We were definitely too close. We made it home safely last night, but not until after an insanely wild day. One hour of chasing turned into six more of being chased by at least 2 tornadoes and a 3rd wall cloud, one of which was the one that went right through downtown Oklahoma City. At one point we were stuck in traffic underneath the El Rino wall cloud watching rotating, rising scud directly above the car. I am hoping and praying that the daylight does not reveal more fatalities.

Would I go again? Yes, but not today, or tomorrow, and I would take even greater care. We had no clue we would get caught the way we did. I thought we had done everything right. We were kind of freaking out for a while. That velocity signature you guys saw with radar folding and multiple vortices - we were under the southern edge of it. We never got a clear view of the tornado, but we could tell just how close it was to our north. It was unreal. The inflow got pretty strong.

We were almost ready to jump out and take cover right before we found a route south, which ended up being slow. It became a six-lane highway south as everyone panicked and drove on the wrong side of the road. Even we did so. We thought we were clear until we saw the training of tornadic supercells on radar, all connected somehow. I've never seen anything like that. My best pictures of the day were of the wall cloud that followed behind the El Reno storm. We didn't see a funnel from that one either, but it chased us south for a long time, and we heard from radio that it spawned a confirmed tornado in Tuttle, when we realized that we were in Tuttle.

A third mesocyclone showed up behind that one as we continued slowly south, eventually reaching Blanchard. It looked weaker than the others but we weren't going to escape it, so we took shelter in a storm room in the local grocery store for about an hour. It then took a long time to find a way around the huge hail cores to get back home. Lightning flashes were occurring 10 times per second as we drove home in the dark. It was almost calming to watch as we got over the semi-shock that we were all in. None of us in the car had seen a tornado before. We didn't see one yesterday, but we were chased by two."



Video 3. Birth of the El Reno wedge tornado. As the tornado touched down, it produced a rare display of suction vortices.

Video 4. Storm chasers Jeff Piotrowski and Kathryn Piotrowski captured impressive footage of a double vortex tornado near El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31, 2013.

Severe storms causing major flooding
The 5.64" of rain that fell at the Oklahoma City Will Rogers Airport on Friday was their 6th wettest day in city history, and brought the total rainfall for the month of May to 14.52", the wettest May in Oklahoma City's history (Thanks to BaltimoreBrian for this link.) The North Canadian River in Oklahoma City rose sixteen feet in twelve hours, cresting at its 2nd highest flood on record this Saturday morning. The heavy rains have spread eastwards on Saturday, causing more flooding problems. Paducah, KY had its wettest June day and 3rd wettest day on record on June 1, with 5.73" of rain (all-time record: 7.49" on 9/5/1985.) Major flooding is occurring along a substantial stretch of the Mississippi River in Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri.


Figure 5. The North Canadian River in Oklahoma City rose sixteen feet in twelve hours, reaching its 2nd highest flood on record this Saturday morning.


Figure 6. Radar-estimated rainfall in the Oklahoma City area reached 8+" over some areas from Friday's storm.

Remains of Hurricane Barbara may bring heavy rains to Mexico, Florida, and Cuba
Today, June 1, is the official first day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, and we already have our first Atlantic tropical disturbance to talk about. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has left behind an area of disturbed weather over the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. There is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Barbara's remnants apparent on satellite loops this Saturday afternoon. Wind shear is a high 20 knots in the region, and the area of disturbed weather is quite small, so I don't expect any development to occur over the next few days. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday. Moisture from the remnants of Barbara may combine with moisture from an area of heavy thunderstorms expected to build over the Western Caribbean this weekend, and begin bringing heavy rains to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba on Sunday and Monday. These heavy rains may spread to Southwest Florida as early as Monday night. The computer models predict that this disturbance should be large and poorly organized, making development into a Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone unlikely.

My next post will be Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

LotsOfWater... (CalicoBass)
from the heavy rains overnight, flowing over this low water bridge. We were waiting to see if something about our size drove over it okay (we were in a Toyota Pickup), this is a bit bigger than us, lol.
LotsOfWater...
Sunset Strike (mrwing13)
NE Oklahoma is under the gun, again today. Severe weather, threatens to produce more damaging storms.
Sunset Strike
tornado (modernsourdough)
near bennington, ks
tornado

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518. FOREX
Quoting cyclonekid:
Looks like we may Tropical Storm Andrea this week as portrayed by our 3 main models: GFS, ECMWF, and CMC (respectively)

GFS (Day 5)



ECMWF (Day 5)



CMC (Day 5: likely too fast and bullish with development)



Maybe landfall between Tampa and Cedar Key?
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Quoting VR46L:


I honestly didn't realize it was a 10%er .... I swear to God !


Lol..
Good Eye VR46L..
It looks to be a bit of energy in a good spot for development..

Any Blobs on African Continent worthy of a look?
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Looks like we may Tropical Storm Andrea this week as portrayed by our 3 main models: GFS, ECMWF, and CMC (respectively)

GFS (Day 5)



ECMWF (Day 5)



CMC (Day 5: likely too fast and bullish with development)

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515. FOREX
Quoting islander101010:
starting to get a bit more organized nw carib looks like a slow mover


Is it possible the fronts will not pick it up?
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514. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


I honestly didn't realize it was a 10%er .... I swear to God !
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
starting to get a bit more organized starting to look like one. nw carib looks like a slow mover i look for development day three not five like the models say
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1005 AM EDT SUN 02 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-002

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 23.5N 87.5W AT 04/1800Z.


hurricane season is official now..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15678
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1005 AM EDT SUN 02 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-002

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 23.5N 87.5W AT 04/1800Z.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah, I see the CMC is out to lunch. It is HIGHLY unlikely that this system will find itself in an environment suitable for such deepening.

The NWS office in Tampa is leaning towards a blend of the euro and gfs as they have been a little more consistent in showing a weak warm core low moving NE from the tip of the Yucatan towards central-south Florida.

Regardless of the track or strength of the low, the entire peninsula will get a decent dousing this week, with a swath of VERY heavy rainfall totals likely somewhere in the central or southern peninsula.

This isn't the type of system that will have you running to home depot or anything, just a rain event with the possibility of discrete, tropical supercells training over the western coast of Florida providing the possibility of tornadoes.

I see this more likely happening on Tuesday and Wednesday assuming the low closes off since Florida would be in the rear front quadrant of the vorticity.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3625
508. VR46L
Hmm .. That really is the interesting blob .. the one off the Yucatan ..


NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/vap_images/goes
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
507. FOREX
Quoting sar2401:

If the CMC is right, that means I will get rain at my house.

I never get rain at my house. My lawn is already dying.

Ergo, the CMC is wrong and the projection will not come to pass.

In the future, just ask if any model includes rain at my house. If not, you can discard that model and look at those that are the furthest away from my house. Those will be right.


Where do you live? I'm in Panama City Beach.
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506. VR46L
Quoting seminolesfan:

Your local NWS office and the NHC should be your main sources of forecast predictions.

There are lots of great posters here, but just as many kooks. Take it all with a large grain of salt.



Post of the day ,


its just an opinion forum .some are very good, but the professionals should be first port of call .


Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
Quoting VR46L:


Not The cmc....



and for more dramatic effect...




But it is the CMC....

If the CMC is right, that means I will get rain at my house.

I never get rain at my house. My lawn is already dying.

Ergo, the CMC is wrong and the projection will not come to pass.

In the future, just ask if any model includes rain at my house. If not, you can discard that model and look at those that are the furthest away from my house. Those will be right.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16101
Quoting fsumet:


When did Daytona Beach get relocated to South Florida? I am not sure who said 10-20 inches, but the forecast from HPC was 7-10 inches for SOUTH FLORIDA. Many locations received 3-5 inches in South Florida yesterday. HPC has backed off slightly and is forecasting 4-8 inches for SOUTH FLORIDA. For Daytona Beach, 3-4 inches over the next 7 days.


The HPC often underestimated FL n events, I'm not too surprised. I don't see why not to go with model consensus, heck some of us in Central Florida last night picked up 4 to 5 inches of rain from a single line of sea breeze thunderstorms, a couple spots near 8 inches.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I don't know if it is, but on the visible for the GOM, it kind of looks like there is some sort of rotation over the tip of the Yucatan??
Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
hold on a minute...... yesterday everyone was saying its a done deal and the low will develop and hit florida with tons of rain....... so which is it today? any real predictions?

Your local NWS office and the NHC should be your main sources of forecast predictions.

There are lots of great posters here, but just as many kooks. Take it all with a large grain of salt.

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Quoting NOAA:
well, if this hypothetical CMC storm comes true (which it probably will not, because we all know CMC can't go a season with out at least a 25% ghost storm rate) then where exactly would this go?


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greetings bloggers

blessings upon you, VRL64-

and rain for florida? yes? will it exit the east coast?
of course it will. But where?
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499. VR46L
Quoting FOREX:


Thanks for posting the graphics.


No Problem ... but I doubt it will occur, but just something the Panhandle would need to be aware of ,its only a few days out !
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
Quoting VR46L:


Not The cmc....



and for more dramatic effect...




But it is the CMC....
CMC: Constantly Making Crap.If this were English class CMC would tell some good Tall Tales which are over dramatic in everything they tell.lol.
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497. FOREX
Quoting VR46L:


Not The cmc....



and for more dramatic effect...




But it is the CMC....


Thanks for posting the graphics.
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495. VR46L
Quoting FOREX:


We really need the rain in the Florida panhandle, but the models take whatever forms far from here.


Not The cmc....



and for more dramatic effect...




But it is the CMC....
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
The latest runs of the GFS and ECWMF continue to suggest very heavy rainfall possible across sfl with PWATS rising to 2.5" by next week. Very hard to pinpoint were the heavy rain will set-up. Right now iam leaning towards the heaviest staying over the gulf but theres also the chance it could be right over us. Regardless were the carib disturbance tracks it looks like a rainy week is a good bet with worst wx tues-thurs. Also, there looks to be turning of winds, so we not only could have a flood risk but also a tornado one as well.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE
POTENTIAL TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND ITS IMPACT ON THE CAROLINAS. EARLY IN THE PERIOD
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN COOL MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER FOR MID WEEK ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH
DAY. THE BIG QUESTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONCERN THE AMOUNT
OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE CAPE FEAR REGION AND HOW WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE. GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
CAP POP AT 30 FOR NOW WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE COAST.

LATE IN THE WEEK ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE
EMERGING FROM THE NORTHEAST GOMEX AND CROSSING THE FL PENINSULA.
DESPITE THIS AGREEMENT THE PATH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM REMAIN
WIDELY VARIED. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND THE SPEED AT
WHICH THE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHEAST IS STILL QUITE LOW
DESPITE THIS AGREEMENT. 00Z CANADIAN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
FASTEST/STRONGEST SYSTEM...SOMETHING WHICH DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE
GIVEN AN ILL-DEFINED MID LEVEL PATTERN. BY CONTRAST THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS HAVE THE LOW SKIRTING THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE NEXT
WEEK. WHILE A NORTHEAST TRACK SEEMS REASONABLE THE PATH REMAINS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR IN
DETERMINING HOW MUCH...IF ANY...IMPACT THE GULF LOW HAS ON THE ILM
REGION. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC POP BUT BUMP NUMBERS FROM 30S
TO 40S GIVEN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.

From Wilmington NC forecast discussion
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492. FOREX
Quoting VR46L:


You know I am convinced that on this disturbance, the fronts that are coming down are going to have a huge effect . Not sure how, be it set it spinning or ripping it apart sending some into Texas and some to Florida at the moment it appears the WPC are going with the second solution


We really need the rain in the Florida panhandle, but the models take whatever forms far from here.
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Well if you think about it Charley,Frances,Ivan,Jeane,Dennis,Katrina,Rita and Wilma all hit the U.S as majors back to back years.8 of them..and it's been 8 years since our last major..

So what I'm basically trying to say is we had enough majors from 2004 and 2005 that hit the U.S to make up for the absence of majors on U.S soil that we've seen for 8 years in just those two years..

Now it has been 8 years since Wilma so could the U.S see a major this year?..Are you all following where I'm going?
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Quoting WxLogic:
Definitely agree with the deactivation of 90L. 500MB VORT had dramatically decreased since last night in the BOC:



Interesting enough the 850/700MB VORT across the NW Carib / extreme S GOM has increased some with TSTM activity persisting near it.

850MB:



700MB:


I believe this is the area GFS is trying to spin up in the upcoming days.


I'm right there with ya WxL,

The upper air pattern is much more conducive in the area to the east of ex-90L:





Anticyclonic turning at 200mb and as a result much more upper divergence out east of the Yucatan...
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489. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:
Day 3


Day 4


Day 5


Day 6


You know I am convinced that on this disturbance, the fronts that are coming down are going to have a huge effect . Not sure how, be it set it spinning or ripping it apart sending some into Texas and some to Florida at the moment it appears the WPC are going with the second solution
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
488. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!!!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
we need to watch Central Atlantic to in six days from now
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Quoting anotherwrongyear:
oh pleaseeeeeee stop it already

For South Florida, Daytona only looks to get 2-3 inches over the next week. I get the sense you might be a troll.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is why 90L was deactivated as a new focus away from BOC will lead to a new invest 91L being up soon.

Well I know it has a possibility of forming into 91L, but the (possible) COC hasnt been visible until now.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I don't know if it is, but on the visible for the GOM, it kind of looks like there is some sort of rotation over the tip of the Yucatan??


That is why 90L was deactivated as a new focus away from BOC will lead to a new invest 91L being up soon.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14327
Quoting GTcooliebai:
One in the Gulf, Tiny one in Central Atlantic.

It's that strong wave that came off a few days ago.The GFS ensambles? did have a tropical storm though I'm skeptical.
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I don't know if it is, but on the visible for the GOM, it kind of looks like there is some sort of rotation over the tip of the Yucatan??
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Day 3


Day 4


Day 5


Day 6
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15678
Quoting etxwx:


Aussie, just wondering if this has been confirmed on other news sources, I'm not finding anything on Discovery.com; the Weather Channel; NewsOK Reuters, etc. Only the Examiner.com has information, but no source cited. And theweatherspace.com, which was the only other google hit, gives me a "failure to connect". It may be that they are withholding official release of info until family notification, but it seems odd this tragic news is primarily being distributed on social media especially given the notoriety of the chasers.



His brother has confirmed it, check #470
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479. SLU
Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning SLU..
That is very interesting..
Storms recurving in the East Atlantic..
While , for lack of another term, a "funneling" effect in the lower Lats..
Into the Carribean Basin..
And GOM bound storms..
Everytime I see the 2004 tracks I cringe..
I guess the only variable I see not accounted for is the Bermuda High and it's effects on the analysis..
Nice job..
Thanks for the explanation..


Yes no problem. The set up does indeed look very 2004-ish which is a season which brings bad memories for many millions.

If we were to pull out two high ACE years out of the hat and analyse their 500mb patterns in April to May and compare their subsequent storm tracks in the ensuing hurricane season, the correlation looks quite obvious.

In 2004, anomalous ridging spanned the entire Atlantic from England to the eastern US. Lower heights existed to the south of the Azores bearing some similarities to this year. Looking at the 2004 storm tracks, the systems that developed quickly such as Danielle and Karl recurved rapidly over the far eastern Atlantic in response to a weakness in the ridge in that region. However, the storms which developed a little more slowly such as Ivan, Frances, Jeanne, Charles and Earl slipped under the strong ridge and moved into the Caribbean and the US.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Comparing that to another high ACE year like 2010, only a weak ridge existed over the eastern US in April to May of that year with a large trough in the central Atlantic. Looking at the storm tracks for the 2010 hurricane season, they closely resemble the pattern that existed in April to May of that year with the storms that formed in the western Caribbean moving generally westwards into Central America under the ridge that existed over the eastern US. However, all the Cape Verde storms recurved away from the US and none of them got past 76W as a result of the strong troughing in the Atlantic.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

So there appears to be a strong correlation between the April to May set up and the storm tracks during the following hurricane season.
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WPC Extended Discussion
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
113 AM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013

VALID 12Z WED JUN 05 2013 - 12Z SUN JUN 09 2013

...MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS...


...OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH A GENERAL RIDGE/TROUGH ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN INTO
NEXT WEEKEND... THE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO CONTINUE FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS EASTWARD. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRESSURE /TROPICAL OR OTHERWISE/ EXITING THE
GULF VIA FLORIDA INTO THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UP THE EAST
COAST. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ABOUT THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS... WHICH CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY WITH EACH NEW
RUN. A USABLE CONSENSUS EXISTS THROUGH ABOUT FRI/D5 AMONG THE
GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF/ECENS MEAN CONUS-WIDE... BEFORE THE GFS/ECMWF
DIVERGE IN TIMING/TRACK OF ENERGY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AS
WELL AS ALONG THE EAST COAST. USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE GEFS AND
ECENS MEANS FOR DAYS 6-7 GIVEN THE LOWER PREDICTABILITY.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15678
477. etxwx
Quoting AussieStorm:
From earlier.....


412. AussieStorm 7:19 AM GMT on June 02, 2013
It is with a heavy heart I bring you this sad news.

WeatherEvents.net ‏@weather_events
Tragic news circulating that highly respected storm chasers Tim Samaras & Carl Young were killed in the El Reno OK tornado yesterday. :(


Aussie, just wondering if this has been confirmed on other news sources, I'm not finding anything on Discovery.com; the Weather Channel; NewsOK Reuters, etc. Only the Examiner.com has information, but no source cited. And theweatherspace.com, which was the only other google hit, gives me a "failure to connect". It may be that they are withholding official release of info until family notification, but it seems odd this tragic news is primarily being distributed on social media especially given the notoriety of the chasers.

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Here we go... 91L could be in the making if it persists:
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
oh pleaseeeeeee stop it already


???
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One in the Gulf, Tiny one in Central Atlantic.

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I don't think anything will really form from this..Just a huge rain event for Florida and maybe the east coast in the long run.Conditions seem like they just won't allow for anything to really get going.
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Our rain gauge is already showing 2.5 inches for this morning, near Springfield, Louisiana. Meanwhile the official gauge in Hammond is only showing 0.17 inches.
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Confirmation



Truly truly sad news.
Tim Samaras, a leader in tornado science, was about saving lives than getting the "money shot".
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Definitely agree with the deactivation of 90L. 500MB VORT had dramatically decreased since last night in the BOC:



Interesting enough the 850/700MB VORT across the NW Carib / extreme S GOM has increased some with TSTM activity persisting near it.

850MB:



700MB:


I believe this is the area GFS is trying to spin up in the upcoming days.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Good Morning
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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