A Night of Tornado Chaos in Oklahoma City: 9 Killed, 71 Injured

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:21 PM GMT on June 01, 2013

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It was a terrifying evening of tornado chaos and extreme atmospheric violence in the Oklahoma City area on Friday. Three tornadoes touched down near the city, killing nine, injuring at least 71, and causing widespread destruction. Huge hail up to baseball-sized battered portions the the metro area, accompanied by torrential flooding rains, widespread damaging straight-line winds, and lightning that flashed nearly continuously. The strongest tornado, which touched down west of Oklahoma City in El Reno, has been preliminarily rated an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. The tornado warning for the storm was issued 19 minutes before it touched down. Two other EF-3 tornadoes touched down near St. Louis, Missouri, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged 20 preliminary tornado reports on Friday. Tinker Air Force Base on the east side of Oklahoma City reported sustained winds of 68 mph, gusting to 88 mph, at 8:09 pm CDT. The Oklahoma City airport had sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 71 mph at 7:26 pm. These winds were generated by the massive and powerful downdrafts from the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the El Reno tornado. Thankfully, Friday was likely the peak day for this week's severe weather outbreak, as SPC is calling for only a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Saturday and Sunday.


Figure 1. TWC's Mike ‪Bettes‬ crew caught this image of the El Reno, Oklahoma tornado of May 31, 2013 before the tornado caught them and rolled their vehicle.



Figure 2 and 3. Radar reflectivity (top) and Doppler velocity (bottom) images of the May 31, 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma tornado.


Figure 4. Preliminary tracks of the three tornadoes that touched done near Oklahoma City on May 31, 2013. Image credit: NWS Norman, OK.

Tornadoes and cars: a dangerous mix
A vehicle is about the worst place you can be in a tornado, as the tornado's winds can easily roll a car. (The only place less safe is probably a mobile home, as a tornado's winds can roll mobile homes almost as readily, and mobile homes don't come with seat belts and air bags.) At least five of the deaths in Friday's El Reno tornado occurred in vehicles attempting to flee. There was one local TV station that urged residents without underground shelters to get in their cars and "get south" in advance of the tornado that was approaching Oklahoma City, since chasers were reporting that the El Reno tornado may have been so strong that only an underground shelter would have provided adequate protection. This terrible piece of advice likely contributed to the incredible traffic jams that we saw on I-35, I-40, I-44, and other local roads Friday night. Thousands of cars were bumper-to-bumper on the roads as a dangerous tornado approached them. Had the El Reno tornado plowed directly down one of these car-choked interstates, the death toll could have easily exceeded 500. If you are located in a metro area and don't have an underground shelter, the best thing to do it to take shelter in an interior windowless room or hallway, with protective furniture over your body. Getting in a car and attempting to flee the tornado is the worst thing you can do in an urban area. You may not be able to see the tornado if it is dark or the tornado is wrapped in rain. You are likely to encounter hazardous winds, rain, and hail, run into unexpected traffic, or flooded or debris-blocked roads that will put you directly in the path of the tornado. Even without an underground shelter, most people will be able to survive a dangerous EF-4 tornado. Case in point: during the Mannford, Oklahoma EF-4 tornado of 1984, a packed church received a direct hit, and everyone in the church survived. The only fatality was a man who drove to the church to get his wife. (Thanks to wunderground member AGWcreationists for this link.) It's better to abandon your vehicle and take shelter in a ditch, if you are caught in a car during a tornado.


Video 1. The Weather Channel storm chasers weren't the only ones who got themselves in an extremely dangerous situation on May 31. StormChasingVideo.com storm chaser Brandon Sullivan and his chase partner Brett Wright got caught in the tornado northwest of Union City, OK and slammed with debris as the tornado hit a barn that exploded in front of them.


Video 2. When the hunters became the hunted: Weather Channel storm chasers ‪Mike Bettes and two photographers were in their Tornado Hunt vehicle when they were hit by a tornado in El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31,‬ ‪2013. ‬The tornado picked their car up off the ground and rolled it 6 - 8 times before depositing it in a field 200 yards away. All the occupants were wearing seat belts and the air bags deployed, likely saving their lives. Bettes sustained minor injuries, including stitches in his hand. It was the first injury sustained by a Weather Channel personality covering violent weather, according to company spokesperson Shirley Powell.

A storm chasers' nightmare
Cars and tornadoes can prove a dangerous mix even for the world's most experienced storm chasers. Driving at high speeds though heavy rain, large hail, and high winds is hazardous. If one is lucky enough to chase down a tornado, even the most experienced chasers can find themselves in a serious life-threatening situation when unpredictable events occur. Tornadoes by their nature are unpredictable, and can change course unexpectedly, or pop up suddenly. It's particularly dangerous when a tornado is wrapped in rain, making it hard to see, or if a chaser is operating in a heavily populated area, where roads may suddenly become congested. All four of these conditions occurred Friday during the El Reno tornado, and it is very fortunate that multiple chasers were not killed. The El Reno tornado was wrapped in rain and difficult to see as it headed west towards Oklahoma City. The twister suddenly made a jog to the southeast as a Weather Channel team led by Mike Bettes was attempting to get in front of the storm, and the tornado lifted their vehicle off the ground, rolled it multiple times, and hurled it 200 yards into a nearby field. StormChasingVideo.com storm chaser Brandon Sullivan and his chase partner Brett Wright got caught in the tornado northwest of Union City, OK and slammed with debris as the tornado hit a barn that exploded in front of them. Meteorologist Emily Sutton and storm chaser Kevin Josefy of local Oklahoma City TV station KFOR also had a very close call with the El Reno tornado Friday afternoon. They got too close to the tornado, and were forced to floor the car in reverse to escape flying debris. With branches of trees crashing around them, Sutton began feeling debris hitting her back, and realized that the rear windshield of the car must have gotten destroyed. Both were uninjured. Reed Timmer's armor-plated "Dominator" chase vehicle had its hood torn off by the tornado. Wunderground member Levi32 was out storm chasing during the El Reno Tornado, and got stuck in traffic on Highway 4 and couldn't move. "We looked up above the car and saw the wall cloud over top of us, with very quick rotation and rising scud indicating the updraft. We were definitely too close. We made it home safely last night, but not until after an insanely wild day. One hour of chasing turned into six more of being chased by at least 2 tornadoes and a 3rd wall cloud, one of which was the one that went right through downtown Oklahoma City. At one point we were stuck in traffic underneath the El Rino wall cloud watching rotating, rising scud directly above the car. I am hoping and praying that the daylight does not reveal more fatalities.

Would I go again? Yes, but not today, or tomorrow, and I would take even greater care. We had no clue we would get caught the way we did. I thought we had done everything right. We were kind of freaking out for a while. That velocity signature you guys saw with radar folding and multiple vortices - we were under the southern edge of it. We never got a clear view of the tornado, but we could tell just how close it was to our north. It was unreal. The inflow got pretty strong.

We were almost ready to jump out and take cover right before we found a route south, which ended up being slow. It became a six-lane highway south as everyone panicked and drove on the wrong side of the road. Even we did so. We thought we were clear until we saw the training of tornadic supercells on radar, all connected somehow. I've never seen anything like that. My best pictures of the day were of the wall cloud that followed behind the El Reno storm. We didn't see a funnel from that one either, but it chased us south for a long time, and we heard from radio that it spawned a confirmed tornado in Tuttle, when we realized that we were in Tuttle.

A third mesocyclone showed up behind that one as we continued slowly south, eventually reaching Blanchard. It looked weaker than the others but we weren't going to escape it, so we took shelter in a storm room in the local grocery store for about an hour. It then took a long time to find a way around the huge hail cores to get back home. Lightning flashes were occurring 10 times per second as we drove home in the dark. It was almost calming to watch as we got over the semi-shock that we were all in. None of us in the car had seen a tornado before. We didn't see one yesterday, but we were chased by two."



Video 3. Birth of the El Reno wedge tornado. As the tornado touched down, it produced a rare display of suction vortices.

Video 4. Storm chasers Jeff Piotrowski and Kathryn Piotrowski captured impressive footage of a double vortex tornado near El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31, 2013.

Severe storms causing major flooding
The 5.64" of rain that fell at the Oklahoma City Will Rogers Airport on Friday was their 6th wettest day in city history, and brought the total rainfall for the month of May to 14.52", the wettest May in Oklahoma City's history (Thanks to BaltimoreBrian for this link.) The North Canadian River in Oklahoma City rose sixteen feet in twelve hours, cresting at its 2nd highest flood on record this Saturday morning. The heavy rains have spread eastwards on Saturday, causing more flooding problems. Paducah, KY had its wettest June day and 3rd wettest day on record on June 1, with 5.73" of rain (all-time record: 7.49" on 9/5/1985.) Major flooding is occurring along a substantial stretch of the Mississippi River in Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri.


Figure 5. The North Canadian River in Oklahoma City rose sixteen feet in twelve hours, reaching its 2nd highest flood on record this Saturday morning.


Figure 6. Radar-estimated rainfall in the Oklahoma City area reached 8+" over some areas from Friday's storm.

Remains of Hurricane Barbara may bring heavy rains to Mexico, Florida, and Cuba
Today, June 1, is the official first day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, and we already have our first Atlantic tropical disturbance to talk about. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has left behind an area of disturbed weather over the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. There is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Barbara's remnants apparent on satellite loops this Saturday afternoon. Wind shear is a high 20 knots in the region, and the area of disturbed weather is quite small, so I don't expect any development to occur over the next few days. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday. Moisture from the remnants of Barbara may combine with moisture from an area of heavy thunderstorms expected to build over the Western Caribbean this weekend, and begin bringing heavy rains to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba on Sunday and Monday. These heavy rains may spread to Southwest Florida as early as Monday night. The computer models predict that this disturbance should be large and poorly organized, making development into a Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone unlikely.

My next post will be Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

LotsOfWater... (CalicoBass)
from the heavy rains overnight, flowing over this low water bridge. We were waiting to see if something about our size drove over it okay (we were in a Toyota Pickup), this is a bit bigger than us, lol.
LotsOfWater...
Sunset Strike (mrwing13)
NE Oklahoma is under the gun, again today. Severe weather, threatens to produce more damaging storms.
Sunset Strike
tornado (modernsourdough)
near bennington, ks
tornado

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Quoting AussieStorm:

The news here tonight said 14 people had died from the Tornado. Not sure if it's 100% right since we are so far away.


Not sure if that includes two deaths from the flooding - one a little girl swept away when family took cover in a ditch, the other a man swept away by flood waters on his way to work.
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Quoting scottsvb:
GFS and the ECMWF does show a pressure for a Tropical Storm in the GOM..lets get that clear compared to the CMC... but there will be some shear by late week and dry air in the midlevels that will push most of the convection to the east of the system and possibly leaving a LLC west of florida by Thurs...then a new LLC will form east of florida by Friday and push up the S.E. Coast. It's too early to tell if this will be classified as a TS by Tues evening or Weds...but I think the decoupling of the moisture will happen on Thurs unless the shear isn't as much.

The CMC doesn't put the shear and dry midlevel air that will push into the system. This is why it's showing a hurricane by Thurs. Is it out of the question? No, but let's keep with the GFS and ECMWF


Models have trended keeping the heaviest rainfall over the gulf.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13740
Quoting ncstorm:
has there ever been a storm chaser get killed while chasing a hurricane?
The only thing that comes to mind is the 1955 recon flight into Hurricane Janet..Not anyone on land as far as I know.
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Quoting ncstorm:
has there ever been a storm chaser get killed while chasing a hurricane?


Not that I know of. They usually stake out an place before the hurricane makes landfall so less chance of things going bad. Hurricane are more predictable that Tornadoes.
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80% today going to get some big thunderstorms soon!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4473
has there ever been a storm chaser get killed while chasing a hurricane?
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
The statistic I take from this unfortunate news is:

25 percent of the fatalities from the tornados in OK

were Storm Chasers...

3/12


The news here tonight said 14 people had died from the Tornado. Not sure if it's 100% right since we are so far away.
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561. wxmod
Arctic Ice today. MODIS satellite photo.

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Quoting hydrus:
Hello Aussie..I am just now getting the news about Tim Samaras. May he rest in God. Was he the only fatality.?

No, His son Paul and crew member Carl Young also passed away.
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559. VR46L
Quoting scottsvb:
GFS and the ECMWF does show a pressure for a Tropical Storm in the GOM..lets get that clear compared to the CMC... but there will be some shear by late week and dry air in the midlevels that will push most of the convection to the east of the system and possibly leaving a LLC west of florida by Thurs...then a new LLC will form east of florida by Friday and push up the S.E. Coast. It's too early to tell if this will be classified as a TS by Tues evening or Weds...but I think the decoupling of the moisture will happen on Thurs unless the shear isn't as much.

The CMC doesn't put the shear and dry midlevel air that will push into the system. This is why it's showing a hurricane by Thurs. Is it out of the question? No, but let's keep with the GFS and ECMWF


Yeah........... pressures of 1004 Euro and 1006 GFS ... seems like a tropical storm to me ....... Not to mention the lack of more than one isobar around the low
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6878
Quoting MrstormX:
I had a bad feeling a storm chaser died in this storm, I think this proves that chasers are pushing things way too much. It used to be a chaser observed from a safe distance; took some photos, videos etc and sold them to the local news station for a small profit. However, now they push the limits. They need to get up literally right next to it however they leave themselves in a position where they only have seconds to escape if things go bad.

This week illustrated that chasing when done unsafely will get you injured or sadly in the case of Tim Samaras killed.


Sorry but I feel your wrong, Tim Samaras was never about getting the "money shot" but about getting scientific data to help provide answers as to where/when/why/how tornadoes develop and why some storms produce and some don't produce. His data collecting meant he had to get close to tornadoes, risky hell yes, but the data he was gathering was going into improving warnings and that helps save lives. That's what Tim and his crew were about, saving lives. R.I.P Tim Samaras. Paul Samaras and Carl Young
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The statistic I take from this unfortunate news is:

25 percent of the fatalities from the tornados in OK

were Storm Chasers...

3/12

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Oh no! Tim Samaras, his son Paul Samaras, and Carl Young were all killed during the tornado that hit El Reno. These guys were apart of the TWISTEX on "stormchasers." These guys were true professionals, not your daily youtube chaser -- they were out to educate and study, not for money or the glory of it. RIP.


Link
I was wondering what happened. It must have been a terrible for them.
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severe weather!!
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Here is the current upper level winds. Shear is falling over the Yucatan channel

It seem the system is trying to pull on an upper level ridge over the Yucatan and Mexico.
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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1005 AM EDT SUN 02 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-002

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 23.5N 87.5W AT 04/1800Z.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

It was hard for me cause I got word via twitter about 1pm my time and was in disbelief. I wasn't sure about it as there was no other "real" news about it until it was confirmed via his Brother on facebook. Such shocking news.
Hello Aussie..I am just now getting the news about Tim Samaras. May he rest in God. Was he the only fatality.?
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
I wonder why they would deactivate the invest (again)? It is going to take a few days to come together. Either "un-invest" it until it gets its act together or leave it an invest as it takes its time to form.


How do you think the forecasters get even with one another for leaving the office coffee pot empty?
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Oh no! Tim Samaras, his son Paul Samaras, and Carl Young were all killed during the tornado that hit El Reno. These guys were apart of the TWISTEX on "stormchasers." These guys were true professionals, not your daily youtube chaser -- they were out to educate and study, not for money or the glory of it. RIP.


Link
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
rotation over the tip of the Yucatan
I see it to
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WPC model diagnostic discussion

...LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY...

PREFERENCE: 02/00Z GFS/ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE BEST AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE UKMET/NAM/CANADIAN MODELS TEND TO SHOW ENOUGH
WEAKNESS IN THEIR SFC ISOBARS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A TROF...OR
POSSIBLY A LOW CENTER...IN THE ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA THUS STILL
THIS AN AVERAGE RATING IS ADEQUATE.

...INVERTED TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

PREFERENCE: GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY...THE 02/00Z NCEP AND NON NCEP MODELS SHOW
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BY DEPICTING AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LARGE SOLUTION SPREAD AND ACCOMPANYING
UNCERTAINTY...THE RECOMMENDATION IS FOR THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEANS...WHILE DISCOUNTING THE TYPICALLY MORE AGGRESSIVE LOW CENTER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CANADIAN.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

It was hard for me cause I got word via twitter about 1pm my time and was in disbelief. I wasn't sure about it as there was no other "real" news about it until it was confirmed via his Brother on facebook. Such shocking news.



Definitely heavy hearted about it too Aussie
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Quite a difference in air masses bisecting the U.S.Notice the gulf and the weird spin.
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Quoting VR46L:Post # 522



Thanks !!


Not really

The last one was dead within 12 hours of hitting the water

but I guess some could argue that these have potential



But really poor looking





Oh well..
A little early for Cape Verde anyway..
I am kinda board with the mess in the Carr./BOC..
Thanks for posting VR46L.. :)
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Quoting K8eCane:
Condolences to the Samaras and Young team

It was hard for me cause I got word via twitter about 1pm my time and was in disbelief. I wasn't sure about it as there was no other "real" news about it until it was confirmed via his Brother on facebook. Such shocking news.
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542. VR46L
Quoting beltane:
VRL64- or anyone-

Rain for Ft Myers? Orlando? Jacksonville?

VRL64, you KNOW waffles have syrup. This is a sticky situation.



Here I will post ya 5 day Totals of the last GFS and CMC runs ....

GFS 5 DAY




Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6878
I had a bad feeling a storm chaser died in this storm, I think this proves that chasers are pushing things way too much. It used to be a chaser observed from a safe distance; took some photos, videos etc and sold them to the local news station for a small profit. However, now they push the limits. They need to get up literally right next to it however they leave themselves in a position where they only have seconds to escape if things go bad.

This week illustrated that chasing when done unsafely will get you injured or sadly in the case of Tim Samaras killed.
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Quoting gator23:
Please help very confused...

1)Why is the blog so slow. I keep getting "the connection is reset" error messages when I try to reload. Advice?

2) Why is everyone saying this storm will head toward SFL when it seems apparent on the models that it will head anywhere from Tampa to Cedar Key. Is it location bias?


Can't help you with question one, but for questions two here is my answer:

Regardless of where the center goes (if there ever even is a LLC) the main threat will be heavy rainfall. If this system does develop it will most likely be a sheared mess and heavy rains will extend far away from the center, primarily in the eastern half of the storm. So I would not try to pick a possible landfall location at this time since there is still a lot up in the air.
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Good view of smpke from the Powerhouse fire in Los Angeles county. That is the county dead center in this image and the origin of the fire is half way up the left side of the county. The winds were off shore yesterday and have switched back onshore and the smoke is swirling all over. I post these maps often to show the extensive Marine layer we sometimes have and it is present big time this morning. 65.0 here right now (7:27PDT)


Thanks for posting that Ped..
I hope they get a better handle on it today..
20% contained last I heard..
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Quoting scottsvb:
GFS and the ECMWF does show a pressure for a Tropical Storm in the GOM..lets get that clear compared to the CMC... but there will be some shear by late week and dry air in the midlevels that will push most of the convection to the east of the system and possibly leaving a LLC west of florida by Thurs...then a new LLC will form east of florida by Friday and push up the S.E. Coast. It's too early to tell if this will be classified as a TS by Tues evening or Weds...but I think the decoupling of the moisture will happen on Thurs unless the shear isn't as much.

The CMC doesn't put the shear and dry midlevel air that will push into the system. This is why it's showing a hurricane by Thurs. Is it out of the question? No, but let's keep with the GFS and ECMWF


Exactly, If shear remain high over the Gulf it would allow the convection to be shear to the right of the LLC. Thus, causing it to decouple and a new Low to possibly reform closer to the convection. It would be interesting to see if conditions will be more favorable after it crosses the Florida Peninsula. But that is still highly uncertain. But I can understand to GFS splitting to system. However, it could some convective feedback as well.
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Quoting beltane:
the NAM is not a tropical model

Isn't that what NAM stands for?

Not A Model?


North American Mesoscale Model:

Link
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It not in the Bay of Campeche it in the Caribbean that why
Quoting gator23:
Please help very confused...

1)Why is the blog so slow. I keep getting "the connection is reset" error messages when I try to reload. Advice?

2) Why is everyone saying this storm will head toward SFL when it seems apparent on the models that it will head anywhere from Tampa to Cedar Key. Is it location bias?
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4473
Condolences to the Samaras and Young team
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the NAM is not a tropical model

Isn't that what NAM stands for?

Not A Model?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Please help very confused...

1)Why is the blog so slow. I keep getting "the connection is reset" error messages when I try to reload. Advice?

2) Why is everyone saying this storm will head toward SFL when it seems apparent on the models that it will head anywhere from Tampa to Cedar Key. Is it location bias?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
According to some Twitter accounts from some weather personalities I follow, it was Tim Samaras, his son Paul, and Carl Young. There was a blogpost on it they linked to, but it's currently down with a database error.

Edit: CNN Story on it: http://www.cnn.com/2013/06/02/us/midwest-weather/i ndex.html

Quoting Doppler22:
I just heard that Tim Sameras was killed in the tornado :( Rest In Peace to him and all who were killed
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rotation over the tip of the Yucatan
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4473
I just heard that Tim Sameras was killed in the tornado :( Rest In Peace to him and all who were killed

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I am not sure if anyone already made a comment about this, but 3 of the people who died in the El Reno tornado seems to be storm chasers from the Twistex team.
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6z NAM-last frame of 84 hours-and no the NAM is not a tropical model but supposed to be good in determining atmospheric conditions..

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They just confirmed that the 3 tornadoe chasers were kill on TWC.This is so sad to hear.Prayers are with the families
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GFS and the ECMWF does show a pressure for a Tropical Storm in the GOM..lets get that clear compared to the CMC... but there will be some shear by late week and dry air in the midlevels that will push most of the convection to the east of the system and possibly leaving a LLC west of florida by Thurs...then a new LLC will form east of florida by Friday and push up the S.E. Coast. It's too early to tell if this will be classified as a TS by Tues evening or Weds...but I think the decoupling of the moisture will happen on Thurs unless the shear isn't as much.

The CMC doesn't put the shear and dry midlevel air that will push into the system. This is why it's showing a hurricane by Thurs. Is it out of the question? No, but let's keep with the GFS and ECMWF
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Good view of smpke from the Powerhouse fire in Los Angeles county. That is the county dead center in this image and the origin of the fire is half way up the left side of the county. The winds were off shore yesterday and have switched back onshore and the smoke is swirling all over. I post these maps often to show the extensive Marine layer we sometimes have and it is present big time this morning. 65.0 here right now (7:27PDT)
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5769
VRL64- or anyone-

Rain for Ft Myers? Orlando? Jacksonville?

VRL64, you KNOW waffles have syrup. This is a sticky situation.
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523. FOREX
Quoting ncstorm:
I dont make forecasts..no way am I qualified to do so but I will say the CMC is about to make believers out of all of yall..the CMC was the only model that saw the EPAC first storm..also out performed the GFS and Euro with the Indian Ocean twin storms..keep sleeping if you want..:)


Well if the CMC prevails, we really need the rain in the Panhandle badly.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1985
522. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


Lol..
Good Eye VR46L..
It looks to be a bit of energy in a good spot for development..

Any Blobs on African Continent worthy of a look?



Thanks !!


Not really

The last one was dead within 12 hours of hitting the water

but I guess some could argue that these have potential



But really poor looking



Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6878
I dont make forecasts..no way am I qualified to do so but I will say the CMC is about to make believers out of all of yall..the CMC was the only model that saw the EPAC first storm..also out performed the GFS and Euro with the Indian Ocean twin storms..keep sleeping if you want..:)
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hmm this is interesting between last night and now this has changed

more E more in the GOH/W Carib further S now extending down deep into the GOH

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519. VR46L
Quoting cyclonekid:
Looks like we may Tropical Storm Andrea this week as portrayed by our 3 main models: GFS, ECMWF, and CMC (respectively)

GFS (Day 5)



ECMWF (Day 5)



CMC (Day 5: likely too fast and bullish with development)



Na it would only be a named storm with the CMC solution.. the other two models at best a depression .... but more than likely just a rain making low....
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6878
518. FOREX
Quoting cyclonekid:
Looks like we may Tropical Storm Andrea this week as portrayed by our 3 main models: GFS, ECMWF, and CMC (respectively)

GFS (Day 5)



ECMWF (Day 5)



CMC (Day 5: likely too fast and bullish with development)



Maybe landfall between Tampa and Cedar Key?
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1985

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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