Tornadoes, Floods, and Severe Thunderstorms Continue in the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on May 31, 2013

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It was yet another active day for tornadoes, flooding, and severe thunderstorms in the Midwest on Thursday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 16 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Illinois. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas for the most part, but seven people were injured in Arkansas in two separate tornadoes, and two other people were hurt by lightning. The severe weather forced organizers of the outdoor Wakarusa Music Festival north of Ozark, Arkansas to delay the start of the festival. The band "Widespread Panic" was one of the groups scheduled to perform, leading to an Associated Press headline from yesterday titled, "Nine hurt in Arkansas storm; Widespread Panic delayed." Heavy rains from this week's thunderstorms have pushed the Mississippi River to major flood stage at most places from Burlington Iowa to Quincy Illinois, and the river is expected to crest near major flood stage at St. Louis early next week. In Iowa, the Cedar River at Cedar Falls, the Iowa River at Marengo, and the Skunk River near Sigourney and at Augusta are also in major flood. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Friday) over much of Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Joplin, Missouri, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 1. Lightning strike from a severe thunderstorm near Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 30, 2013, as photographed by KFOR-TV. (AP Photo/KFOR-TV)


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Joplin, Missouri. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

A mostly quiet year for violent tornadoes
After a very quiet March, April, and first half of May, the U.S. tornado season has become very active during the last half of May, and is beginning to catch up to normal. TWC's tornado expert Dr. Greg Forbes has a preliminary count of 181 tornadoes for the month of May, through May 29, which is 35% below the 10-year average of 279 through May 29th. May 2012 had only 121 tornadoes. The 2013 tornado tally has risen significantly in the last half of May, due to 7 of the last 15 days having above-average numbers of tornadoes. Fortunately, we are well below-average for strong and violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes so far in 2013. According to NOAA, the U.S. has averaged 43 EF-3 or stronger tornadoes per year during the period 1954 - 2012. With tornado season nearly half over, only twelve EF-3 and EF-4 tornadoes have been recorded so far in 2013. An average year should have had at least twenty of these tornadoes by this point in the year. Here are the twelve EF-3 and stronger tornadoes so far in 2013, as detailed in Wikipedia's excellent Tornadoes of 2013 page:

EF-5, May 20, Moore, Oklahoma. 24 deaths, 377 injuries, $2 billion in damage.
EF-4, May 28, Ottawa County, Kansas. Intensity based on mobile Doppler radar data. See the Capital Weather Gang's description of this tornado.
EF-4, May 19, Shawnee, Oklahoma. 2 deaths, 6 injuries.
EF-4, May 15, Granbury, TX. 6 deaths, 24+ injuries.
EF-4, May 18, Rozel, Kansas.
EF-4, February 10, Hattiesburg, MS. 0 deaths, 82 injuries.
EF-3, Corning, KS, May 28.
EF-3, May 27, Lebanon - Esbon, KS. 1 injured. Wind gust of 175 mph measured by TIV2 intercept vehicle.
EF-3, May 15, Cleburne, TX. No deaths or injuries.
EF-3, January 30, Adairsville, GA. 1 death, 17 injuries, 363 buildings damaged or destroyed.
EF-3, April 11, Kemper County, AL. 1 death, 9 injuries.
EF-3, May 19, Luther - Carney, Oklahoma.


Figure 3. The annual number of EF-3 and stronger tornadoes, 1954 - 2012. The greatest number of these dangerous tornadoes was 131 in 1974, the year of the notorious "Super Outbreak." The minimum was just 15, set in 1987. The average is 43 per year. Image credit: NOAA.


Video 1. Impressive 2-minute timelapse of the Bennington, Kansas wedge tornado of May 28, 2013, as filmed by the Aussie Storm Chasers. As discussed in an excellent blog post by Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang, the violent EF-4 tornado stood still for nearly an hour, and had wind gusts as high as 264 mph at an altitude of 300 feet measured by Doppler on Wheels.

Remains of Hurricane Barbara bringing heavy rains to Mexico
Hurricane Barbara died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. While there is no low level circulation apparent on satellite loops this Friday morning, there is a bit of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and the remains of Barbara are kicking up some heavy thunderstorm activity over the southernmost Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas of Mexico. Wind shear is a high 20 knots in the region, and the area of disturbed weather is quite small, so I don't expect any development to occur over the next few days. Wind shear is predicted to remain high over the Gulf of Mexico for the next six days, and none of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during that period. Late next week, wind shear is predicted to drop, and there is a better chance for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. Both the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that a strong tropical disturbance with heavy rains may affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and the Southwest Florida by Friday next week.


Figure 4. Remains of Hurricane Barbara in the southernmost Gulf of Mexico as seen by MODIS at 12:05 pm EDT Thursday, May 30, 2013. Barbara had just been declared dead one hour prior to this photo. Image credit: NASA.

Saturday, June 1, is the first day of hurricane season, and I'll post a quick look at what we might expect to see in June.

Jeff Masters

More Wild Weather 4 (Nikongranny)
More Wild Weather 4
Bennington, Ks Tornado (weatherfanatic2010)
This was one of the easiest chase days ever. Left Salina, Ks and thought about going after the storms to the NW but turned back after about 15 miles when the storm that spawned this tornado went up. Me and my group setup just west of Bennington about 20 minutes before this tornado touched down, catching a brief rope tornado about 10 minutes before this tornado touched down. It sat almost stationary for about 45 and we watched it's entire life cycle without having to move.
Bennington, Ks Tornado
LP Supercell (adkinsadam1)
LP Supercell
Lightning (tjlpowell)
Lightning

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Dont forget its also TROLL season!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormchaser19:

Don't come to discredit the CMC,sometimes he succeeds...For example this year with Alvin


it stinks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS is a good model to go by up to 5 days..then ECMWF on days 6 and 7 if it's inline with the GFS at day 5

GFS has been persistant though on the dry air around the center and of it being more of a trough of low pressure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Big area of thunderstorms leaving Colombia.
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Quoting allancalderini:
oh I am happy that the Atlantic hurricane season can`t wait to track with you this year guys I have fun with all the fights and the discussions we have but at the end we united like a community.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1655. Dakster
Someone at the NHC needs to get the yellow crayon out - they didn't update the graphic.

SC19 - Even a blind squirrel gets a nut every once in a while.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
They just showed when Mike Bettes got tossed in the air when the tornado came on TWC! talk about suspense!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


lol. I'm going to have to get back into my nighttime hurricane season hours. I'd have been in bed already tonight if I could find that spider I flicked across the room in a panic a couple hours ago. :)
lol be safe!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scottsvb:
CMC= Constantly making cyclones.... very true

If we went by the CMC model... we would have about 40 Tropical Storms a year

Don't come to discredit the CMC,sometimes he succeeds...For example this year with Alvin
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1651. sar2401
I see it's once again time for the "Who will be the first to post the next TWO" games to begin again. :-) I'm hoping subsequent TWO's don't take up half a blog page again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
May 31st

June 6
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tampa bay rays at the cleveland indians...138am and that game is still being played in the 6th inning only...OMG
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1648. Dakster
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Are the GFS and ECMWF good enough for you? They've been showing this developing for a while now. :P


Better... than JUST the CMC. I thought the GFS was all over the place and not showing a storm hitting South Carolina.

If you were in South Carolina would you be boarding up and stocking up? (I usually stock up the non-perishables now anyways)

And yes, I'm just messing with you at 1:40am...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the 1st TWO from the NHC about what was 90L just about sums it up dead due to high shear and the fact its on land


plus there is hardly any vort left the last of it got/getting sucked up by the one that increasing in the Gulf of Honduras
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
Quoting daddyjames:


Doesn't "chase" imply that you are behind the tornado, and not where it is coming? otherwise isn't the tornado chasing you?

Anyways, g'nite - stay safe, and hope it stops raining soon.


In general no, trying to follow a HP supercell is difficult, It's staying at the part of the storm where you can view the tornado and not be caught in heavy rain or hail. In general for most U.S. storms it means being just south or south east of the meso. The problem comes in when you have to follow the roads of the area and the tornado does not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
oh I am happy that the Atlantic hurricane season can`t wait to track with you this year guys I have fun with all the fights and the discussions we have but at the end we united like a community.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
have a good night all i leve you with this

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CMC= Constantly making cyclones.... very true

If we went by the CMC model... we would have about 40 Tropical Storms a year
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Is these for real or just an example?


It's real, that's 90L.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23484
woah this is bigger than I last remember it

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010520
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 12...6...AND
3...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2013 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
------------------------------------------------- ------------
ANDREA AN- DREE UH LORENZO LOH REN- ZOH
BARRY BAIR- REE MELISSA MEH LIH- SUH
CHANTAL SHAHN TAHL- NESTOR NES- TOR
DORIAN DOR- EE AN OLGA OAL- GUH
ERIN AIR- RIN PABLO PAHB- LO
FERNAND FAIR NAHN- REBEKAH REH BEH- KUH
GABRIELLE GA BREE ELL- SEBASTIEN SUH BASH- CHUHN
HUMBERTO OOM BAIR- TOH TANYA TAHN- YUH
INGRID ING- GRID VAN VAN
JERRY JEHR- EE WENDY WEN- DEE
KAREN KAIR- REN

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER
THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE
1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE
REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE CAN ALSO BE USED
IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS ALSO ISSUED TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF INFORMATION REGARDING THE CENTER LOCATION OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AND THE
CENTER CAN BE EASILY TRACKED WITH LAND-BASED RADAR. TROPICAL
CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT
WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER. GOV. NOTIFICATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR ATLANTIC TWITTER FEED IS
AVAILABLE AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML ...IN ALL LOWER CASE.

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
Quoting allancalderini:
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Is these for real or just an example?


It's real.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Is these for real or just an example?




real thats from are 1st two of the season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bigwes6844:
sipping on a cup of joe. Ready for this year! Lets do this hurricane team the doors are back open! hurricane season is here! be prepared when its time to get ready for the big one. Im already ready and well prepared! The question is are you ready? Lets do this! 2013 is here!


lol. I'm going to have to get back into my nighttime hurricane season hours. I'd have been in bed already tonight if I could find that spider I flicked across the room in a panic a couple hours ago. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Is these for real or just an example?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormchaser19:


LOL!! Good one!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00Z surface map out verry interesting in yaeeeeest atlantic

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its going to end up being a sleeper and have to wait till its a little further down the road

I am surprized with the amount of cyclonic turning of the system strong for so early


Yeah. It is not expected to develop in the near future. But it is worth watching for development in the eastern Pacific or in the Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well would you look at that, our first TWO of the season and it's already a hatched 10%!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23484
Quoting Dakster:


CMC = Constantly Making Cyclones....

Until something else jumps on board and is consistent, I don't put much stock in it.


Are the GFS and ECMWF good enough for you? They've been showing this developing for a while now. :P
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23484
we have are 1st two and are 1st yellow


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 12...6...AND
3...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2013 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
------------------------------------------------- ------------
ANDREA AN- DREE UH LORENZO LOH REN- ZOH
BARRY BAIR- REE MELISSA MEH LIH- SUH
CHANTAL SHAHN TAHL- NESTOR NES- TOR
DORIAN DOR- EE AN OLGA OAL- GUH
ERIN AIR- RIN PABLO PAHB- LO
FERNAND FAIR NAHN- REBEKAH REH BEH- KUH
GABRIELLE GA BREE ELL- SEBASTIEN SUH BASH- CHUHN
HUMBERTO OOM BAIR- TOH TANYA TAHN- YUH
INGRID ING- GRID VAN VAN
JERRY JEHR- EE WENDY WEN- DEE
KAREN KAIR- REN

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER
THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE
1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE
REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE CAN ALSO BE USED
IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS ALSO ISSUED TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF INFORMATION REGARDING THE CENTER LOCATION OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AND THE
CENTER CAN BE EASILY TRACKED WITH LAND-BASED RADAR. TROPICAL
CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT
WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER. GOV. NOTIFICATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR ATLANTIC TWITTER FEED IS
AVAILABLE AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML ...IN ALL LOWER CASE.

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010520
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 12...6...AND
3...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2013 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
------------------------------------------------- ------------
ANDREA AN- DREE UH LORENZO LOH REN- ZOH
BARRY BAIR- REE MELISSA MEH LIH- SUH
CHANTAL SHAHN TAHL- NESTOR NES- TOR
DORIAN DOR- EE AN OLGA OAL- GUH
ERIN AIR- RIN PABLO PAHB- LO
FERNAND FAIR NAHN- REBEKAH REH BEH- KUH
GABRIELLE GA BREE ELL- SEBASTIEN SUH BASH- CHUHN
HUMBERTO OOM BAIR- TOH TANYA TAHN- YUH
INGRID ING- GRID VAN VAN
JERRY JEHR- EE WENDY WEN- DEE
KAREN KAIR- REN

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER
THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE
1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE
REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE CAN ALSO BE USED
IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS ALSO ISSUED TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF INFORMATION REGARDING THE CENTER LOCATION OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AND THE
CENTER CAN BE EASILY TRACKED WITH LAND-BASED RADAR. TROPICAL
CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT
WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER. GOV. NOTIFICATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR ATLANTIC TWITTER FEED IS
AVAILABLE AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML ...IN ALL LOWER CASE.

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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1629. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:
WOW!!!!


So, a serious question prompted by that video. How many tornadoes actually occured from that cell? One? Several? None? Would the NWS even know those funnel clouds even existed without that video? Makes me wonder exactly how many tornadoes really occur in any given season.
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Quoting Dakster:


CMC = Constantly Making Cyclones....

Until something else jumps on board and is consistent, I don't put much stock in it.


Yeah we'll see!!!!
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Quoting FIUStormChaser:


You have to understand that Storm Chasing is a way of life, just like a person who engages in Boxing or other dangerous activities such as Coal mining, it is a way of living.

Some chase for the thrill, others chase for fame, and some chase for Science.


Another thing to keep in mind is that a storm chaser is a lot more likely to die driving around in normal traffic than chasing a storm. They're even more likely to die going down the stairs in the morning for breakfast.

However, there are calculated risks and then there are Darwin Award candidates. If you don't know jack about tornadoes, don't have a live radar feed, and you hop in your car with a video camera to get up close and personal with a twister then there's a pretty good chance that all the king's horses and all the king's men won't be able to find enough of you to fill up a sandwich baggie.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
sipping on a cup of joe. Ready for this year! Lets do this hurricane team the doors are back open! hurricane season is here! be prepared when its time to get ready for the big one. Im already ready and well prepared! The question is are you ready? Lets do this! 2013 is here!


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1625. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Civicane49:
its going to end up being a sleeper and have to wait till its a little further down the road

I am surprized with the amount of cyclonic turning of the system strong for so early
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
1624. Dakster
Quoting stormchaser19:
CMC, showing a cat.1 hurricane hitting South Carolina!!!


CMC = Constantly Making Cyclones....

Until something else jumps on board and is consistent, I don't put much stock in it.
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sipping on a cup of joe. Ready for this year! Lets do this hurricane team the doors are back open! hurricane season is here! be prepared when its time to get ready for the big one. Im already ready and well prepared! The question is are you ready? Lets do this! 2013 is here!
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1621. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
1620. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
1619. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
img src="">
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
1618. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Stepped out for a few hours, but I was watching what was going on. I'd say what we saw earlier was at least an EF4, that gate-to-gate shear was incredible!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23484
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Models are not showing anything dramatic in the GOM... a trough with a LLC-MLC of around 1004MB with most of its moisture east of a possible center due to dry air and shear. Still too early to call this system in 4-5 days a Storm or not...but GFS is usually pretty accurate.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Kinda Grainy near El Reno..impressive green skies..



Doesn't "chase" imply that you are behind the tornado, and not where it is coming? otherwise isn't the tornado chasing you?

Anyways, g'nite - stay safe, and hope it stops raining soon.
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WPC now in line with the models.

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It's the official start of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season! Let the games begin.
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1611. Skyepony (Mod)
Kinda Grainy near El Reno..impressive green skies..

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Quoting Astrometeor:


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 269
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1145 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.



here's hoping that it does not last until 5am. OKC will become one with the Oklahoma River.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.