Tornadoes, Floods, and Severe Thunderstorms Continue in the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on May 31, 2013

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It was yet another active day for tornadoes, flooding, and severe thunderstorms in the Midwest on Thursday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 16 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Illinois. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas for the most part, but seven people were injured in Arkansas in two separate tornadoes, and two other people were hurt by lightning. The severe weather forced organizers of the outdoor Wakarusa Music Festival north of Ozark, Arkansas to delay the start of the festival. The band "Widespread Panic" was one of the groups scheduled to perform, leading to an Associated Press headline from yesterday titled, "Nine hurt in Arkansas storm; Widespread Panic delayed." Heavy rains from this week's thunderstorms have pushed the Mississippi River to major flood stage at most places from Burlington Iowa to Quincy Illinois, and the river is expected to crest near major flood stage at St. Louis early next week. In Iowa, the Cedar River at Cedar Falls, the Iowa River at Marengo, and the Skunk River near Sigourney and at Augusta are also in major flood. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Friday) over much of Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Joplin, Missouri, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 1. Lightning strike from a severe thunderstorm near Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 30, 2013, as photographed by KFOR-TV. (AP Photo/KFOR-TV)


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Joplin, Missouri. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

A mostly quiet year for violent tornadoes
After a very quiet March, April, and first half of May, the U.S. tornado season has become very active during the last half of May, and is beginning to catch up to normal. TWC's tornado expert Dr. Greg Forbes has a preliminary count of 181 tornadoes for the month of May, through May 29, which is 35% below the 10-year average of 279 through May 29th. May 2012 had only 121 tornadoes. The 2013 tornado tally has risen significantly in the last half of May, due to 7 of the last 15 days having above-average numbers of tornadoes. Fortunately, we are well below-average for strong and violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes so far in 2013. According to NOAA, the U.S. has averaged 43 EF-3 or stronger tornadoes per year during the period 1954 - 2012. With tornado season nearly half over, only twelve EF-3 and EF-4 tornadoes have been recorded so far in 2013. An average year should have had at least twenty of these tornadoes by this point in the year. Here are the twelve EF-3 and stronger tornadoes so far in 2013, as detailed in Wikipedia's excellent Tornadoes of 2013 page:

EF-5, May 20, Moore, Oklahoma. 24 deaths, 377 injuries, $2 billion in damage.
EF-4, May 28, Ottawa County, Kansas. Intensity based on mobile Doppler radar data. See the Capital Weather Gang's description of this tornado.
EF-4, May 19, Shawnee, Oklahoma. 2 deaths, 6 injuries.
EF-4, May 15, Granbury, TX. 6 deaths, 24+ injuries.
EF-4, May 18, Rozel, Kansas.
EF-4, February 10, Hattiesburg, MS. 0 deaths, 82 injuries.
EF-3, Corning, KS, May 28.
EF-3, May 27, Lebanon - Esbon, KS. 1 injured. Wind gust of 175 mph measured by TIV2 intercept vehicle.
EF-3, May 15, Cleburne, TX. No deaths or injuries.
EF-3, January 30, Adairsville, GA. 1 death, 17 injuries, 363 buildings damaged or destroyed.
EF-3, April 11, Kemper County, AL. 1 death, 9 injuries.
EF-3, May 19, Luther - Carney, Oklahoma.


Figure 3. The annual number of EF-3 and stronger tornadoes, 1954 - 2012. The greatest number of these dangerous tornadoes was 131 in 1974, the year of the notorious "Super Outbreak." The minimum was just 15, set in 1987. The average is 43 per year. Image credit: NOAA.


Video 1. Impressive 2-minute timelapse of the Bennington, Kansas wedge tornado of May 28, 2013, as filmed by the Aussie Storm Chasers. As discussed in an excellent blog post by Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang, the violent EF-4 tornado stood still for nearly an hour, and had wind gusts as high as 264 mph at an altitude of 300 feet measured by Doppler on Wheels.

Remains of Hurricane Barbara bringing heavy rains to Mexico
Hurricane Barbara died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. While there is no low level circulation apparent on satellite loops this Friday morning, there is a bit of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and the remains of Barbara are kicking up some heavy thunderstorm activity over the southernmost Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas of Mexico. Wind shear is a high 20 knots in the region, and the area of disturbed weather is quite small, so I don't expect any development to occur over the next few days. Wind shear is predicted to remain high over the Gulf of Mexico for the next six days, and none of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during that period. Late next week, wind shear is predicted to drop, and there is a better chance for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. Both the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that a strong tropical disturbance with heavy rains may affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and the Southwest Florida by Friday next week.


Figure 4. Remains of Hurricane Barbara in the southernmost Gulf of Mexico as seen by MODIS at 12:05 pm EDT Thursday, May 30, 2013. Barbara had just been declared dead one hour prior to this photo. Image credit: NASA.

Saturday, June 1, is the first day of hurricane season, and I'll post a quick look at what we might expect to see in June.

Jeff Masters

More Wild Weather 4 (Nikongranny)
More Wild Weather 4
Bennington, Ks Tornado (weatherfanatic2010)
This was one of the easiest chase days ever. Left Salina, Ks and thought about going after the storms to the NW but turned back after about 15 miles when the storm that spawned this tornado went up. Me and my group setup just west of Bennington about 20 minutes before this tornado touched down, catching a brief rope tornado about 10 minutes before this tornado touched down. It sat almost stationary for about 45 and we watched it's entire life cycle without having to move.
Bennington, Ks Tornado
LP Supercell (adkinsadam1)
LP Supercell
Lightning (tjlpowell)
Lightning

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widespread panic is a great music group they are all in their 50s and their crowds age ranges from the 20 to the 60s if you get a chance to see them live do it. here is a sample from a cd they produced in 1999 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xx_CZPUXOKg happy weather
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4326
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

May 2013 ended as the third wettest on record in San Juan.

CLIMATE...MAY 2013 ENDED AS THE THIRD WETTEST MAY ON RECORD AT THE SAN
JUAN METRO AREA WITH 14.54 INCHES OF RAIN. THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD
WAS IN 1936 WHEN 16.88 INCHES OF RAIN WERE RECORDED.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14002
000
ABNT20 KNHC 010520
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 12...6...AND
3...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2013 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
------------------------------------------------- ------------
ANDREA AN- DREE UH LORENZO LOH REN- ZOH
BARRY BAIR- REE MELISSA MEH LIH- SUH
CHANTAL SHAHN TAHL- NESTOR NES- TOR
DORIAN DOR- EE AN OLGA OAL- GUH
ERIN AIR- RIN PABLO PAHB- LO
FERNAND FAIR NAHN- REBEKAH REH BEH- KUH
GABRIELLE GA BREE ELL- SEBASTIEN SUH BASH- CHUHN
HUMBERTO OOM BAIR- TOH TANYA TAHN- YUH
INGRID ING- GRID VAN VAN
JERRY JEHR- EE WENDY WEN- DEE
KAREN KAIR- REN

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER
THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE
1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE
REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE CAN ALSO BE USED
IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS ALSO ISSUED TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF INFORMATION REGARDING THE CENTER LOCATION OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AND THE
CENTER CAN BE EASILY TRACKED WITH LAND-BASED RADAR. TROPICAL
CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT
WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER. GOV. NOTIFICATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR ATLANTIC TWITTER FEED IS
AVAILABLE AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML ...IN ALL LOWER CASE.

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


It has begun. Cane season is upon us !
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Good news in the form of a Friday evening letter from Acting Under Secretary of NOAA Dr. Kathryn Sullivan:Score one for common sense. ;-)


Thank goodness the proposal of furloughing NOAA/NWS employees is canceled.
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The Central Pacific hurricane season has officially begun and will run through November 30.

Here are the names and pronunciations for the Central Pacific basin:



"The names are used one after the other. When the bottom of one list is reached, the next name is the top of the next list. We don't start at the top of a list each year, but begin with the name following the last named used. The next name to be used is Pewa."
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Quoting KoritheMan:


From my understanding (and correct me if I'm wrong), construction in the Cayman Islands is generally very good. You guys are able to withstanding destructive hurricanes, although Ivan was an entirely different kettle of fish.

cayman building codes were updated after Ivan thats why you see people make concrete bunkers for houses instead of light brick and wood Ivan was our reason
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11004
Good news in the form of a Friday evening letter from Acting Under Secretary of NOAA Dr. Kathryn Sullivan:
May 31, 2013

To All Employees,

The events over the past week, including more devastating tornadoes tonight in Oklahoma and Missouri, remind us how important every single employee within NOAA is to the health, safety, and well-being of this nation. I want to thank you all for continued commitment and dedication even in times of danger to your lives, families, and property. The work you do truly is important to each and every American from coast to coast.

That is precisely why I'm pleased to report that this evening the Department of Commerce transmitted a plan to Congress that will avoid all furloughs in NOAA. This was possible because of an increase in flexibility in how we use our funding within the Department.

Because of this new development we are cancelling our intent to furlough all 12,000 of our employees.

As you all know, sequestration required NOAA to make significant cuts to its budget for the remainder of this fiscal year. We had to make some painful decisions and choices -- but all of those decisions were aimed at mitigating effects on our critical missions and services, and our employees. We have implemented a hiring freeze, limited travel and training, and cut grant and contract funding, in addition to many others.

For weeks, we have been working diligently to present a plan that represented the best way to ensure that we met these goals within the financial resources we have been given. When we initially received our appropriation in late March, some of our colleagues were facing up to 10 days of furlough, while others were facing up to 20. This was neither acceptable nor executable. Therefore, we looked for every other option possible to manage through these serious fiscal challenges, including the proposal we have been communicating with all of you this past month.

While this new plan allows us to avoid furloughs, sequestration remains an ongoing challenge. We must all continue to scrutinize every expense and prioritize our most critical missions and essential operations.

I know the past two months have been difficult and uncertain. Our number one priority during this time was to protect our mission and our employees. I'm glad that the Department was able to support this goal. I will continue to share information as I am able and encourage your Line and Staff Office Directors to do the same.

Thank you --

Kathy
Score one for common sense. ;-)
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Some serious, "life-threatening" flooding from training storms is going on in and around OKC this morning. Radar estimates show that nearly a foot of rain has fallen in some areas, while the official measurement by midnight was 5.64", making for both the wettest May day ever at Oklahoma City, and the wettest month of May ever.

Something

And the rain continues to fall:

Something
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(BBC News) 1 in 13 people have 'ape like' feet

Which means a few of the regulars on here have them, too. Made a list of the likely suspects, but I'm not gonna post it.

Link
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2893
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

because here in cayman we get hit by a ton of storm we are use to it but Ivan 04 was quite something
the most I would not mind is a paloma 08 cat 3/4 max not an Ivan Cat 5


From my understanding (and correct me if I'm wrong), construction in the Cayman Islands is generally very good. You guys are able to withstanding destructive hurricanes, although Ivan was an entirely different kettle of fish.
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Btw I post the first TWO of the season what is my price :D?
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1699. vis0
1506. stormchaser19 4:04 AM GMT on June 01, 2013     +0                 

  |Quoting Bluestorm5:|
  |  2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season had officially started.|



Here we go!!!!!!!!

...due to the "sequestration" (fav triple crown winner) the Tropical Storm season has been cut by 27%, though don't tell nature she's doing the opp.

Please help our fellow citizens, visit the HELP pgs. here at Wxu or www. RedCross.org /Donation
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Well I wouldn't want to experience one in Honduras, either, because it's such a flood-prone location in the first place, lol.
Hmm you have no idea one hour of rain and my city looks like a river.
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Auroral activity Live

High latitude (82% chance)
Middle latitude (75% chance)
Low latitude (3% chance
)

Link
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SevereStudios‏@severestudios1 min
Tornado Warning for Newton and Searcy County in AR until 3:15am CDT
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Well I wouldn't want to experience one in Honduras, either, because it's such a flood-prone location in the first place, lol.

because here in cayman we get hit by a ton of storm we are use to it but Ivan 04 was quite something
the most I would not mind is a paloma 08 cat 3/4 max not an Ivan Cat 5
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11004
Quoting allancalderini:
I want to experience a hurricane but not in Honduras it is a relly poor place and I don`t want to see a lot of deaths or destruction and I don`t remember Mitch very much and ts Gamma and td 16 amount a lot in rain but not in wind.


Well I wouldn't want to experience one in Honduras, either, because it's such a flood-prone location in the first place, lol.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


That's what I like about this place (and I was discussing that with one of the members here that I met up with in the French Quarter three weeks ago). We're all fascinated by nature in some way; some of us want to experience hurricanes and extreme weather, while others don't want a part of that at all. Others still just enjoy weather photography, and some aren't even on this site for weather of any kind!

But most importantly, as a civil community we all set these differences aside when tragedy is occurring -- like tonight's tornadoes; and that, I think, is what keeps me coming back. For all of our fights, we're all united under one common cause during times of duress.
Quoting KoritheMan:


That's what I like about this place (and I was discussing that with one of the members here that I met up with in the French Quarter three weeks ago). We're all fascinated by nature in some way; some of us want to experience hurricanes and extreme weather, while others don't want a part of that at all. Others still just enjoy weather photography, and some aren't even on this site for weather of any kind!

But most importantly, as a civil community we all set these differences aside when tragedy is occurring -- like tonight's tornadoes; and that, I think, is what keeps me coming back. For all of our fights, we're all united under one common cause during times of duress.
I want to experience a hurricane but not in Honduras it is a relly poor place and I don`t want to see a lot of deaths or destruction and I don`t remember Mitch very much and ts Gamma and td 16 amount a lot in rain but not in wind.
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G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm outlook
The observed Kp index is 6.33 but the predicted K-indice of 7.67 indicates that a stronger storm might occur at this moment.



Link
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my take on this situation is models can't forecast this thing properly because there are too much variable in the extremes for the GOM/BOC plus the fact its a monsoonal type system it can't pinpoint the low that will eventually form our storm there is a strong possiblity of that low to form either in the BOC/GOM or GOH W Carib evenly
I personally believe it would be on the GOH/W Carib condition are just more favored in that area in terms of upper wind surface winds and SST
beside formation location and short term track it seem that this will eventually move to Florida and SE US which is agreement with just about every model
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11004
Quoting Luisport:
From SpaceWeather

GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A G2-class (Kp=6) geomagnetic storm is in progress following the arrival of an interplanetary shock wave [u](probably a CME)[/u] on May 31st. Solar wind conditions favor auroras at high latitudes

Link


Kp 7!!Link
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Looks like a fairly conditional risk of tornadoes across Texas today with unimpressive shear profiles, but Arkansas and points northward may take a couple of hits. Today's setup seems more conditional than yesterday's though, with possible cloud cover leading to instability issues.
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From SpaceWeather

GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A G2-class (Kp=6) geomagnetic storm is in progress following the arrival of an interplanetary shock wave [u](probably a CME)[/u] on May 31st. Solar wind conditions favor auroras at high latitudes

Link
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Tornado threat lessens, moves east for Saturday
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I have already posted...and because I didn't know 90L was classified...I made yet another post just now...so that's 2 posts for the price of 1 as the hurricane season kicks off....

Special post to acknowledge 90-L
Regular post for first day of the season...


Well now...
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ECMWF has also backed off alittle on the GOM system with the GFS showing alot of shear and dry air with midlevel moisture across central and eastern Florida and No Tropical Storm by Thurs. Still too early as we need more run after run persistance.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Actually it's at 2am. 5am is for EPAC. SO we have kicked off. LOL

lol we just started our season 49 mins ago
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11004
Quoting bigwes6844:
Welcome to the 2013 official start of the Atlantic Hurricane season!! first TWO at 5am edt! thanks aussie!


Actually it's at 2am. 5am is for EPAC. SO we have kicked off. LOL
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shear in the GOM/BOC is still high around 30-40kts and still increasing
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11004
the convection that quickly build up over the yucatan is dying out faster than it formed

convection starting to rebuild in the W Caribbean

shear in the GOH/W Carib still low and vort in the GOH still sucking out the vort in the BOC so right now it looks kinda elongated
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11004

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Woke up and doing a quick drive by.

The heaviest 24-hour rainfall in Oklahoma City is 8.95"
on October 19-20 1983. The rainfall up till 1 am CDT was 5.64"

The storm line is sagging south into Oklahoma City again.





Will the 24-hour rainfall record for Oklahoma City fall? And will the flooding cause more trouble and deaths than the tornadoes did?

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Are you gonna write blogs again this year? I really enjoyed reading them last year.


I have already posted...and because I didn't know 90L was classified...I made yet another post just now...so that's 2 posts for the price of 1 as the hurricane season kicks off....

Special post to acknowledge 90-L
Regular post for first day of the season...
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Oh....nevermind then....LOL

I am thinking the way the Navy site is handling it...it seems they are treating it like the remnant of Barbara because the their Barabara link shows the exact same sat image that the 90L link shows...


Are you gonna write blogs again this year? I really enjoyed reading them last year.
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1676. Hugo5
Looks as though the wind shear over GOM may be weaking. Models seem to be suggesting this already.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


That's been there since yesterday afternoon, lol.

Oh....nevermind then....LOL

I am thinking the way the Navy site is handling it...it seems they are treating it like the remnant of Barbara because the their Barabara link shows the exact same sat image that the 90L link shows...
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Bettes on a rope ...



I'd have been very upset if he had been hurt, and they came very close.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
More news!

Invest 90L has just been put up on the Navy NRL site in the BOC!


That's been there since yesterday afternoon, lol.
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Quoting allancalderini:
oh I am happy that the Atlantic hurricane season can`t wait to track with you this year guys I have fun with all the fights and the discussions we have but at the end we united like a community.


That's what I like about this place (and I was discussing that with one of the members here that I met up with in the French Quarter three weeks ago). We're all fascinated by nature in some way; some of us want to experience hurricanes and extreme weather, while others don't want a part of that at all. Others still just enjoy weather photography, and some aren't even on this site for weather of any kind!

But most importantly, as a civil community we all set these differences aside when tragedy is occurring -- like tonight's tornadoes; and that, I think, is what keeps me coming back. For all of our fights, we're all united under one common cause during times of duress.
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More news!

Invest 90L has just been put up on the Navy NRL site in the BOC!
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So, it's officially hurricane season now. The last few years we have been very fortunate from the standpoint of the layperson (barring Sandy), as the mean synoptic pattern has featured a semipermanent east coast trough with a ridge over the central Atlantic, which is a pattern that favors recurvature of tropical cyclones away from the United States mainland. However, the mean steering pattern for the last 60 days has featured anomalous ridging over eastern Canada and the eastern United States, with upstream troughing over the central United States. This is a pattern that, unfortunately for ordinary people (but fortunate for those of us who want to storm chase), puts the United States at considerable risk for landfalls, with the Gulf Coast taking the majority of hits in this particular setup (think 2005 or 2008).

As far as I know, however -- and I can't accentuate this enough -- the mean steering pattern during the late spring/early summer has absolutely no relevance to the steering pattern during the heart of hurricane season when it actually matters. Also, it doesn't matter if the current pattern remains or not; as Sandy adequately demonstrated last year, it only takes one storm to make it a memorable season for you and your family, so always have a preparedness plan. It can happen to you, and it will happen to you; it's not a question of if, but when.

As for my predictions (and again, neither take this nor the favorable steering pattern for US landfalls as anything *remotely* set in stone. Things can easily change, and they probably will to some extent) for the year, I'm going with 17/9/4, with an ACE index of 190.
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Quoting stormchaser19:


Post 1656, best laugh of the week.
Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Hot-off-the-press from the NHC tropical weather outlook! Our first yellow circle in the Atlantic of the season...just in time....

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Dont forget its also TROLL season!!
We have some good Mods. this season. They should be paid to keep up with this crew.
Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting bigwes6844:
Dont forget its also TROLL season!!


I forget which season or which storm was happening but they were keeping Dr Masters busy. He came on and said it was kind of fun, like playing whack-a-troll. lol
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1664. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its going to end up being a sleeper and have to wait till its a little further down the road

I am surprized with the amount of cyclonic turning of the system strong for so early
I suspect we may see a lot of surprises this year.
Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 501


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Yay...offical start of 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season...and I've kicked it off with my first routine birdseye chart discussion covering the basin.

I did these birdseye chart discussions last season on my blog. It has two birdseye view charts of the whole basin (an atmospheric features chart & thermo chart) and associated discussion that's fairly descriptive...feel free to leave comments and or questions....
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Dont forget its also TROLL season!!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.