Tornadoes, Floods, and Severe Thunderstorms Continue in the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on May 31, 2013

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It was yet another active day for tornadoes, flooding, and severe thunderstorms in the Midwest on Thursday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 16 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Illinois. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas for the most part, but seven people were injured in Arkansas in two separate tornadoes, and two other people were hurt by lightning. The severe weather forced organizers of the outdoor Wakarusa Music Festival north of Ozark, Arkansas to delay the start of the festival. The band "Widespread Panic" was one of the groups scheduled to perform, leading to an Associated Press headline from yesterday titled, "Nine hurt in Arkansas storm; Widespread Panic delayed." Heavy rains from this week's thunderstorms have pushed the Mississippi River to major flood stage at most places from Burlington Iowa to Quincy Illinois, and the river is expected to crest near major flood stage at St. Louis early next week. In Iowa, the Cedar River at Cedar Falls, the Iowa River at Marengo, and the Skunk River near Sigourney and at Augusta are also in major flood. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Friday) over much of Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Joplin, Missouri, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 1. Lightning strike from a severe thunderstorm near Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 30, 2013, as photographed by KFOR-TV. (AP Photo/KFOR-TV)


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Joplin, Missouri. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

A mostly quiet year for violent tornadoes
After a very quiet March, April, and first half of May, the U.S. tornado season has become very active during the last half of May, and is beginning to catch up to normal. TWC's tornado expert Dr. Greg Forbes has a preliminary count of 181 tornadoes for the month of May, through May 29, which is 35% below the 10-year average of 279 through May 29th. May 2012 had only 121 tornadoes. The 2013 tornado tally has risen significantly in the last half of May, due to 7 of the last 15 days having above-average numbers of tornadoes. Fortunately, we are well below-average for strong and violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes so far in 2013. According to NOAA, the U.S. has averaged 43 EF-3 or stronger tornadoes per year during the period 1954 - 2012. With tornado season nearly half over, only twelve EF-3 and EF-4 tornadoes have been recorded so far in 2013. An average year should have had at least twenty of these tornadoes by this point in the year. Here are the twelve EF-3 and stronger tornadoes so far in 2013, as detailed in Wikipedia's excellent Tornadoes of 2013 page:

EF-5, May 20, Moore, Oklahoma. 24 deaths, 377 injuries, $2 billion in damage.
EF-4, May 28, Ottawa County, Kansas. Intensity based on mobile Doppler radar data. See the Capital Weather Gang's description of this tornado.
EF-4, May 19, Shawnee, Oklahoma. 2 deaths, 6 injuries.
EF-4, May 15, Granbury, TX. 6 deaths, 24+ injuries.
EF-4, May 18, Rozel, Kansas.
EF-4, February 10, Hattiesburg, MS. 0 deaths, 82 injuries.
EF-3, Corning, KS, May 28.
EF-3, May 27, Lebanon - Esbon, KS. 1 injured. Wind gust of 175 mph measured by TIV2 intercept vehicle.
EF-3, May 15, Cleburne, TX. No deaths or injuries.
EF-3, January 30, Adairsville, GA. 1 death, 17 injuries, 363 buildings damaged or destroyed.
EF-3, April 11, Kemper County, AL. 1 death, 9 injuries.
EF-3, May 19, Luther - Carney, Oklahoma.


Figure 3. The annual number of EF-3 and stronger tornadoes, 1954 - 2012. The greatest number of these dangerous tornadoes was 131 in 1974, the year of the notorious "Super Outbreak." The minimum was just 15, set in 1987. The average is 43 per year. Image credit: NOAA.


Video 1. Impressive 2-minute timelapse of the Bennington, Kansas wedge tornado of May 28, 2013, as filmed by the Aussie Storm Chasers. As discussed in an excellent blog post by Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang, the violent EF-4 tornado stood still for nearly an hour, and had wind gusts as high as 264 mph at an altitude of 300 feet measured by Doppler on Wheels.

Remains of Hurricane Barbara bringing heavy rains to Mexico
Hurricane Barbara died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. While there is no low level circulation apparent on satellite loops this Friday morning, there is a bit of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and the remains of Barbara are kicking up some heavy thunderstorm activity over the southernmost Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas of Mexico. Wind shear is a high 20 knots in the region, and the area of disturbed weather is quite small, so I don't expect any development to occur over the next few days. Wind shear is predicted to remain high over the Gulf of Mexico for the next six days, and none of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during that period. Late next week, wind shear is predicted to drop, and there is a better chance for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. Both the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that a strong tropical disturbance with heavy rains may affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and the Southwest Florida by Friday next week.


Figure 4. Remains of Hurricane Barbara in the southernmost Gulf of Mexico as seen by MODIS at 12:05 pm EDT Thursday, May 30, 2013. Barbara had just been declared dead one hour prior to this photo. Image credit: NASA.

Saturday, June 1, is the first day of hurricane season, and I'll post a quick look at what we might expect to see in June.

Jeff Masters

More Wild Weather 4 (Nikongranny)
More Wild Weather 4
Bennington, Ks Tornado (weatherfanatic2010)
This was one of the easiest chase days ever. Left Salina, Ks and thought about going after the storms to the NW but turned back after about 15 miles when the storm that spawned this tornado went up. Me and my group setup just west of Bennington about 20 minutes before this tornado touched down, catching a brief rope tornado about 10 minutes before this tornado touched down. It sat almost stationary for about 45 and we watched it's entire life cycle without having to move.
Bennington, Ks Tornado
LP Supercell (adkinsadam1)
LP Supercell
Lightning (tjlpowell)
Lightning

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Palm Beach International Airport received 15.7 inches of rain
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A message from Brandon Sullivan following his close call with the tornado:



I've seen a lot of people aggravated with storm chasers after what happened in the El Reno tornado yesterday, but I don't really think it's necessary. Tornadoes are hard to track in themselves, especially high precipitation, rain-wrapped ones. Everybody makes mistakes, this is just one of those times.


I'm not aggravated, although I know what you mean, especially on the late night blog.

Those tornadoes last night repeatedly changed direction, first from going east to southeast to northeast, back to southeast, and finally east when going through OKC. Scary stuff for chasers.

And I am glad that there were those out there yesterday willing to risk their lives to locate a storm and report the exact location, strength, and speed back to the NWS to make a more detailed warning to those living in the way. The chasers should be welcomed and thanked for their service not shamed upon.
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Mistakes are inevitable with the line of work of storm chasing. Or hobby.

Otherwise, this is simply the best image I could see. I am ECSTATIC right now. Oh Man!!!!! :-)

THANK YOU, MOTHER NATURE!!!!

Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
1757. SLU
Happy Hurricane Season to all.

The most wonderful time of the year
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A message from Brandon Sullivan following his close call with the tornado:



I've seen a lot of people aggravated with storm chasers after what happened in the El Reno tornado yesterday, but I don't really think it's necessary. Tornadoes are hard to track in themselves, especially high precipitation, rain-wrapped ones. Everybody makes mistakes, this is just one of those times.


2 bad mistakes, lucky everyone survived without injury, just bruised egos.
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Finnally,ATCF updates 90L. 12z Best Track.

AL, 90, 2013060112, , BEST, 0, 203N, 956W, 20, 1008, DB

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Here are the storm reports from yesterday. Something interesting to note: no one made an official report to the SPC for OKC. There is damaging wind and large hail reports, but no tornado report.

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1752. WxLogic
500MB VORT:

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A message from Brandon Sullivan following his close call with the tornado:

Quoting Brandon Sullivan:
I messed up.. As someone who has worked years to pave a road to a career in the NWS, I messed up.. Myself, The Titans... None of are inexperienced or reckless.. Never have been, never will be.. But that said, I messed up today. I usually call the shots and I kept us there too long.. Although I am not officially associated with NWS or any affiliates, I must apologize to my colleagues in the offices and agencies.. I've worked hard to uphold the core mission of protecting life and property, but I let adrenaline and desire for the shot get to me today. A sincere apology to all those professionals who dedicate their daily lives to keeping people safe. I will keep chasing, but with a new and humbled approach.


I've seen a lot of people aggravated with storm chasers after what happened in the El Reno tornado yesterday, but I don't really think it's necessary. Tornadoes are hard to track in themselves, especially high precipitation, rain-wrapped ones. Everybody makes mistakes, this is just one of those times.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
:o)

You missed the :o)

Geez... can't I mess with you anymore???

[sorry, in a mischievous mood this a.m.....]

lol


LOL
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@Ginger_Zee Ginger Zee
Wind turbine blade went into a daycare! No children were inside. #elreno #tornado
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I gotta get on the road, and will prolly be out of internet range for much of the day. You guys stay safe in the Midwest, and everybody have a great day!

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The sun is out again this a.m. but this loop is suggesting I'm not going to get the clearing day I was hoping for... oh, well... at least it is not actually RAINING for a change...
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Geez dude, chill. Sorry I was impersonating Taz.
:o)

You missed the :o)

Geez... can't I mess with you anymore???

[sorry, in a mischievous mood this a.m.....]

lol

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Quoting AussieStorm:
182 days till the End of Hurricane season


But just 40 days until the average date of the first named storm.
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Quoting BAHAbyBluDash:
This is BahaHurican... I am trying out this new account because I want to have something set up to use on my phone without having to change the settings that I use with my regular acccount. I have yet to use this ON the phone, but that should change today... lol

I wasn't looking as much at the graphic as I was at the message... lol...

It's ridiculous to be this glad to see June 1st... lol

But speaking of the graphic, I really REALLY miss NASA Viewer imagery... I didn't realize how much I depend on them. There is a saying, "you don't miss the water 'til the well run dry..."
BTW, do you think I should take this opportunity to plus my own posts?

lololol
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Can I ask why we are so preoccupied with being "late"??? I certainly hadn't seen that info before, because I wasn't around when #1556 was posted. "Late" was actually right on time for me.

Besides, it's not fair to blame Nea just because you're normally awake when the rest of us are normally asleep.... and therefore see everything...

:o)


Geez dude, chill. Sorry I was impersonating Taz.
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182 days till the End of Hurricane season
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Quoting AussieStorm:


And score 1 for being late. Check #1556, better late than never I guess
Can I ask why we are so preoccupied with being "late"??? I certainly hadn't seen that info before, because I wasn't around when #1556 was posted. "Late" was actually right on time for me.

Besides, it's not fair to blame Nea just because you're normally awake when the rest of us are normally asleep.... and therefore see everything...

:o)
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Quoting goosegirl1:


I don't know about "ape-like", but I own a pair of Fred Flintstone feet :)) Does that make a list?


Sure does, Wilma. Yabba dabba doo!
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NWS was talking about a possibility of mini supercells on Tuesday should this area develop a little bit.
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Quoting yonzabam:
(BBC News) 1 in 13 people have 'ape like' feet

Which means a few of the regulars on here have them, too. Made a list of the likely suspects, but I'm not gonna post it.

Link


Being that humans are classified as apes (hominids are the "great apes"), this headline is pretty much the same as saying "1 in 13 dogs has 'canine like' paws". Good job science editors.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Morning All!

Geeze, that's a lot of rain

Hydrologic Outlook
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-012200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
600 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE YUCATAN
AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHWEST OR CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY FALLING IN
THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
INCREASINGLY WET CONDITIONS COULD START EARLIER. AREA-WIDE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...AND ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY DURING THE COURSE OF
NEXT WEEK...SO INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AS THIS SITUATION UNFOLDS.

$$


That explains the 70% Rain Chances thru next Friday.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Good news in the form of a Friday evening letter from Acting Under Secretary of NOAA Dr. Kathryn Sullivan:Score one for common sense. ;-)


And score 1 for being late. Check #1556, better late than never I guess
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Morning All!

Geeze, that's a lot of rain. Especially considering a lot have already got a ton of rain the past week.

Hydrologic Outlook
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-012200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
600 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE YUCATAN
AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHWEST OR CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY FALLING IN
THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
INCREASINGLY WET CONDITIONS COULD START EARLIER. AREA-WIDE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...AND ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY DURING THE COURSE OF
NEXT WEEK...SO INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AS THIS SITUATION UNFOLDS.

$$
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
For the central north Pacific, between 140%uFFFDW and 180.

No tropical cyclones are expected through late Sunday night.

Today marks the beginning of the official 2013 hurricane season in the central north Pacific. The tropical weather outlook indicates the potential for future tropical cyclone development and/or current tropical cyclone activity in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility. This outlook will be routinely issued four times per day at 200 am, 800 am, 200 pm and 800 pm Hawaii standard time from today through the end of the hurricane season on November 30.

A special tropical weather outlook will be issued to provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of the tropical weather outlook. Special tropical weather outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular tropical weather outlooks.
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Quoting yonzabam:
(BBC News) 1 in 13 people have 'ape like' feet

Which means a few of the regulars on here have them, too. Made a list of the likely suspects, but I'm not gonna post it.

Link


I don't know about "ape-like", but I own a pair of Fred Flintstone feet :)) Does that make a list?
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1730. ncstorm
00Z CMC precip map through 240 hours

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15990
Any other models on board other than the CMC, GFS and Euro?
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There's our circle. For some reason it didn't show up after the first TWO.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7921
1727. ncstorm
06z GFS precip map

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15990
This is BahaHurican... I am trying out this new account because I want to have something set up to use on my phone without having to change the settings that I use with my regular acccount. I have yet to use this ON the phone, but that should change today... lol

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is from December 2 2012. They have not updated the graphic yet.
I wasn't looking as much at the graphic as I was at the message... lol...

It's ridiculous to be this glad to see June 1st... lol

But speaking of the graphic, I really REALLY miss NASA Viewer imagery... I didn't realize how much I depend on them. There is a saying, "you don't miss the water 'til the well run dry..."
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General model consensus of a disturbance lifting NE out of the BOC:


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1723. ncstorm
00z Euro






Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15990
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7921


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Haha, Nestor. Now I can make socio-political jokes no one will get. And is Dorian even a name for people? I thought it was just one of the 7 musical modes.
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1719. ncstorm
The 00z CMC has a strong category 1 on todays run crossing Florida and riding up the east coast..officially kicking off the hurricane season











Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15990
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good morning all.

LOL



Just thought you might want to know...


That is from December 2 2012. They have not updated the graphic yet.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
we have are 1st two and are 1st yellow


Well, that didn't last long, did it?
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Quoting Civicane49:
The Central Pacific hurricane season has officially begun and will run through November 30.

Here are the names and pronunciations for the Central Pacific basin:



"The names are used one after the other. When the bottom of one list is reached, the next name is the top of the next list. We don't start at the top of a list each year, but begin with the name following the last named used. The next name to be used is Pewa."
Hmmm... last one I remember is Kika...

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1715. pottery
Good Morning all.

The feature we were looking at last night, off the coast of Africa, is winning the battle against the SAL and dry air.

So sad to read the news of the destruction from Tornados last night.
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We shall see how our little 10%'er is doing shortly.

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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From Miami NWS Discussion...Quite the Read!

Sorry for the long post...

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A MONSOON TROUGH/LOW
PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GFS DEVELOPS THE LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS
SOUTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODEL IS SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK TIED TO MID LEVEL VORT ENERGY AND STRENGTHENS
THE LOW AND THEN THE SURROUNDING FLOW TOO MUCH AND TOO FAST. SO IT
HAS BEEN DISCARDED. THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN ON TUESDAY...GETTING PICKED UP INTO
THE GULF AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE LOW/MID LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING FURTHER NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE 850MB
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND TOWARDS NAPLES...AND 0-1KM HELICITY
VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SO THERE IS THE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS OVER THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE NAPLES
REGION. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAY ALSO BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT FOR
THE GULF COAST AND THEN INTO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE POSSIBLY TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES.

THE 00Z ECMWF RUN BACKS OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE GULF.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING IS LARGELY UNCHANGED...AND THIS BRINGS SOME
CONSISTENCY TO THE FORECAST. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND WHEN THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WILL BEGIN AND THEN FINALLY END. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
THAT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
MONDAY...AND BASED ON THE ECMWF...COULD CONCEIVABLY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF MINI
SUPERCELLS SOMETIME POSSIBLY IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
IF THE SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP SOMEWHAT IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAD THE 850MB FLOW STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS IN THE
MID WEEK PERIOD...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES ALSO INCREASING.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS SLIGHTLY. IT IS STILL
WAY TOO EARLY TO PICK OUT ANY TIMING OF A MINI SUPERCELL THREAT
OR IF IT WILL EVEN OCCUR...BUT THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY SO THAT
IS WHY IT IS MENTIONED. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER PAINTS THE
REGION WITH AREAWIDE TOTALS OF 7-10 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO WHAT THE ECMWF OUTPUTS ACROSS THE REGION AS
WELL. WITH THE GREATER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE
ECMWF...THIS COULD VERY WELL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WITH VARYING
SOLUTIONS FROM THE MODELS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE
ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
AS WELL.
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Good morning all.

LOL



Just thought you might want to know...
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1711. WxLogic
Good Morning
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widespread panic is a great music group they are all in their 50s and their crowds age ranges from the 20 to the 60s if you get a chance to see them live do it. here is a sample from a cd they produced in 1999 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xx_CZPUXOKg happy weather
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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