Tornadoes, Floods, and Severe Thunderstorms Continue in the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on May 31, 2013

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It was yet another active day for tornadoes, flooding, and severe thunderstorms in the Midwest on Thursday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 16 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Illinois. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas for the most part, but seven people were injured in Arkansas in two separate tornadoes, and two other people were hurt by lightning. The severe weather forced organizers of the outdoor Wakarusa Music Festival north of Ozark, Arkansas to delay the start of the festival. The band "Widespread Panic" was one of the groups scheduled to perform, leading to an Associated Press headline from yesterday titled, "Nine hurt in Arkansas storm; Widespread Panic delayed." Heavy rains from this week's thunderstorms have pushed the Mississippi River to major flood stage at most places from Burlington Iowa to Quincy Illinois, and the river is expected to crest near major flood stage at St. Louis early next week. In Iowa, the Cedar River at Cedar Falls, the Iowa River at Marengo, and the Skunk River near Sigourney and at Augusta are also in major flood. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Friday) over much of Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Joplin, Missouri, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 1. Lightning strike from a severe thunderstorm near Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 30, 2013, as photographed by KFOR-TV. (AP Photo/KFOR-TV)


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Joplin, Missouri. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

A mostly quiet year for violent tornadoes
After a very quiet March, April, and first half of May, the U.S. tornado season has become very active during the last half of May, and is beginning to catch up to normal. TWC's tornado expert Dr. Greg Forbes has a preliminary count of 181 tornadoes for the month of May, through May 29, which is 35% below the 10-year average of 279 through May 29th. May 2012 had only 121 tornadoes. The 2013 tornado tally has risen significantly in the last half of May, due to 7 of the last 15 days having above-average numbers of tornadoes. Fortunately, we are well below-average for strong and violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes so far in 2013. According to NOAA, the U.S. has averaged 43 EF-3 or stronger tornadoes per year during the period 1954 - 2012. With tornado season nearly half over, only twelve EF-3 and EF-4 tornadoes have been recorded so far in 2013. An average year should have had at least twenty of these tornadoes by this point in the year. Here are the twelve EF-3 and stronger tornadoes so far in 2013, as detailed in Wikipedia's excellent Tornadoes of 2013 page:

EF-5, May 20, Moore, Oklahoma. 24 deaths, 377 injuries, $2 billion in damage.
EF-4, May 28, Ottawa County, Kansas. Intensity based on mobile Doppler radar data. See the Capital Weather Gang's description of this tornado.
EF-4, May 19, Shawnee, Oklahoma. 2 deaths, 6 injuries.
EF-4, May 15, Granbury, TX. 6 deaths, 24+ injuries.
EF-4, May 18, Rozel, Kansas.
EF-4, February 10, Hattiesburg, MS. 0 deaths, 82 injuries.
EF-3, Corning, KS, May 28.
EF-3, May 27, Lebanon - Esbon, KS. 1 injured. Wind gust of 175 mph measured by TIV2 intercept vehicle.
EF-3, May 15, Cleburne, TX. No deaths or injuries.
EF-3, January 30, Adairsville, GA. 1 death, 17 injuries, 363 buildings damaged or destroyed.
EF-3, April 11, Kemper County, AL. 1 death, 9 injuries.
EF-3, May 19, Luther - Carney, Oklahoma.


Figure 3. The annual number of EF-3 and stronger tornadoes, 1954 - 2012. The greatest number of these dangerous tornadoes was 131 in 1974, the year of the notorious "Super Outbreak." The minimum was just 15, set in 1987. The average is 43 per year. Image credit: NOAA.


Video 1. Impressive 2-minute timelapse of the Bennington, Kansas wedge tornado of May 28, 2013, as filmed by the Aussie Storm Chasers. As discussed in an excellent blog post by Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang, the violent EF-4 tornado stood still for nearly an hour, and had wind gusts as high as 264 mph at an altitude of 300 feet measured by Doppler on Wheels.

Remains of Hurricane Barbara bringing heavy rains to Mexico
Hurricane Barbara died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. While there is no low level circulation apparent on satellite loops this Friday morning, there is a bit of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and the remains of Barbara are kicking up some heavy thunderstorm activity over the southernmost Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas of Mexico. Wind shear is a high 20 knots in the region, and the area of disturbed weather is quite small, so I don't expect any development to occur over the next few days. Wind shear is predicted to remain high over the Gulf of Mexico for the next six days, and none of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during that period. Late next week, wind shear is predicted to drop, and there is a better chance for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. Both the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that a strong tropical disturbance with heavy rains may affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and the Southwest Florida by Friday next week.


Figure 4. Remains of Hurricane Barbara in the southernmost Gulf of Mexico as seen by MODIS at 12:05 pm EDT Thursday, May 30, 2013. Barbara had just been declared dead one hour prior to this photo. Image credit: NASA.

Saturday, June 1, is the first day of hurricane season, and I'll post a quick look at what we might expect to see in June.

Jeff Masters

More Wild Weather 4 (Nikongranny)
More Wild Weather 4
Bennington, Ks Tornado (weatherfanatic2010)
This was one of the easiest chase days ever. Left Salina, Ks and thought about going after the storms to the NW but turned back after about 15 miles when the storm that spawned this tornado went up. Me and my group setup just west of Bennington about 20 minutes before this tornado touched down, catching a brief rope tornado about 10 minutes before this tornado touched down. It sat almost stationary for about 45 and we watched it's entire life cycle without having to move.
Bennington, Ks Tornado
LP Supercell (adkinsadam1)
LP Supercell
Lightning (tjlpowell)
Lightning

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Quoting JNTenne:



Talk about gambling?! But if you have not shelter what do you do? Maybe we can get Gates or Zuckerberg or Buffett to start a charity or something..



Did those people hit the roads to see the tornado or to escape it?
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1809. ncstorm
CMC Ensembles
Short term

Long term


NCEP Ensembles
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13421
1808. JNTenne
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
All the 6z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS have 15+ inches of rain for FL in the next 132HR!
looks like the Keys are in the bullseye too..
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1807. JNTenne

Quoting seminolesfan:

Another great point here about the traffic and congestion issues of evacuation under pressure.

Something we see with tropical systems and longer lead times. Granted, also normally a larger evacuating population...

Getting out is good; Getting trapped is NOT!


Talk about gambling?! But if you have not shelter what do you do? Maybe we can get Gates or Zuckerberg or Buffett to start a charity or something..

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Airport at Mena, AR, picked up 1.26" of rain in just 20 minutes; flash flooding significant concern
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1805. hydrus
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Bettes on a rope ...



I'd have been very upset if he had been hurt, and they came very close.
Very lucky indeed.
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1804. ncstorm
Quoting scottsvb:
btw no mention of the CMC model in the discussion cause we Don't Care about what the CMC says...tbh


funny how all the models have followed the CMC with the storm tracking over florida instead of heading into New Orleans..intensity might be off as we wont know until it happens but right now the CMC is winning..

also from the WPC Discussion in regards to the models diagnostic discussion..they may preferred the GFS/Euro but confidence is below average in those models as they are not consistent..

...INVERTED TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 18Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE


AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE
ENVIRONMENT WAS VERY MOIST/TROPICAL WITH SATELLITE- AND
SOUNDING-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2.25-2.50
INCHES...REPRESENTING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY.
THIS IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE MORE COMMONLY SEEN 1 OR 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS. MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON WHERE TO DEVELOP
LOCAL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WITHIN THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS AS IT
DRIFTS SLOWLY ENE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TROUGH APPEARS
ANCHORED TO A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT ENSEMBLE LOW PLOTS SUGGEST GROWING SUPPORT FOR THE
PRESSURE MINIMUM THAT SOME OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING
TOWARD THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYS 2/3. EVENTUALLY
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE FORECAST
FOR THE U.S...AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL AND AT LEAST OVER
FLORIDA. OUR PREFERRED MODEL BLEND IS AN ATTEMPT TO REFLECT BOTH
SURFACE PRESSURE MINIMA WITH A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE EASTWARD
MOTION THAN THAT SEEN IN THE 00Z GFS. NOTE THAT WHERE THE
PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE WAS TO BLEND THE 00Z RUN BACK TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WE NOW RECOMMEND SIMPLY USING THE MORE CONSERVATIVE 18Z
GFS IN PLACE OF THE 00Z RUN.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13421
All the 6z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS have 15+ inches of rain for FL in the next 132HR!
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Good morning all, welcome to the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season! I guess I owe you guys a video update starting weekly, I'll try to have one up tonight regarding 90L.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23009
Quoting daddyjames:


Totally agree with you Nea. Too many people now try to do this when the sirens sound . . . especially when college in session. Even the chasers were complaining about the traffic - but then again, what do they expect?

Combined with the fact that local mets, and pretty much the state government, have been advocating that when a storm is approaching "if you can't get underground, get in your car and leave".

Last night showed the fallacy of this approach towards the public safety. . . and people were very lucky, but not all of them were.

Another great point here about the traffic and congestion issues of evacuation under pressure.

Something we see with tropical systems and longer lead times. Granted, also normally a larger evacuating population...

Getting out is good; Getting trapped is NOT!
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Quoting Neapolitan:


It's only a matter of time before someone gets the Jonas Miller treatment in real life. I can all but guarantee it...


That's why Darwin Awards were invented. Freedom includes the freedom to be stupid - and pay for it.

If someone wants to seek their glory and fame by counting coup on a tornado, they are going to do such. Hopefully they'll do such out in the open plains where the only ones killed or injured will be themselves.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Mr. Sullivan may be genuinely contrite, and, having learned an important lesson, may from now on, one would hope, resist the overwhelming urge to stick his head in the lion's mouth to prove it has sharp teeth.


Totally agree with you Nea. Too many people now try to do this when the sirens sound . . . especially when college in session. Even the chasers were complaining about the traffic - but then again, what do they expect?

Combined with the fact that local mets, and pretty much the state government, have been advocating that when a storm is approaching "if you can't get underground, get in your car and leave".

Last night showed the fallacy of this approach towards the public safety. . . and people were very lucky, but not all of them were.
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1798. hydrus
Quoting SLU:
Happy Hurricane Season to all.

The most wonderful time of the year
Bah, ..HUMBUG..:)
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Today is the two year anniversary of the Spingfield, MA tornado. I just wrote a blog with some facts about it as well as my personal experience that day if you're interested.

Link
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Mr. Sullivan may be genuinely contrite, and, having learned an important lesson, may from now on, one would hope, resist the overwhelming urge to stick his head in the lion's mouth to prove it has sharp teeth. But his video is playing in endless loops on TWC and elsewhere--complete with his logo and website's URL--and he's been interviewed on multiple TV outlets (some national), and his logo and URL are also visible there on his hat and his shirt. There's nothing wrong with self-promotion, of course--that's how the game is played--but I'll lay good money down that as we speak there's a publicity-starved storm chaser somewhere seeing the attention being paid to Sullivan and thus planning on getting even closer next time a tornado rips across the landscape. And that guy--or the one after him, or the one after him--may not be as fortunate as Sullivan.

It's only a matter of time before someone gets the Jonas Miller treatment in real life. I can all but guarantee it...


You make a great point here. I'm sure the chasers will continue to chase and seek 'their shot'.

But the other side of the coin is that each and every one of them is doing something they LOVE and WANT to be a part of.

Freedom is a great thing in life; Being able to do what you love...
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1795. JNTenne

Quoting Neapolitan:
Mr. Sullivan may be genuinely contrite, and, having learned an important lesson, may from now on, one would hope, resist the overwhelming urge to stick his head in the lion's mouth to prove it has sharp teeth. But his video is playing in endless loops on TWC and elsewhere--complete with his logo and website's URL--and he's been interviewed on multiple TV outlets (some national), and his logo and URL are also visible there on his hat and his shirt. There's nothing wrong with self-promotion, of course--that's how the game is played--but I'll lay good money down that as we speak there's a publicity-starved storm chaser somewhere seeing the attention being paid to Sullivan and thus planning on getting even closer next time a tornado rips across the landscape. And that guy--or the one after him, or the one after him--may not be as fortunate as Sullivan.

It's only a matter of time before someone gets the Jonas Miller treatment in real life. I can all but guarantee it...
+100
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Quoting SLU:
While this may be a totally unsound meteorological comparison, I did some research using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and found that in over 90% of the hurricane seasons since 1950, the storm tracks tend to resemble the surface pressure patterns established in the April to May timeframe. In areas where high pressure dominates in April to May, the storms generally seem to avoid these areas during the hurricane season but they tend to congregate where the pressures are lower in April to May.

So far this year in April to May, we have seen extremely high pressures persist near the North-eastern US and Eastern Canada both at the surface and the 500mb levels with lower pressures in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the North-eastern Atlantic near the Azores.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Based on that theory, we may see our storm tracks this year resemble that of the 1996, 1998 and 2004 hurricane seasons (1996 and 2004 both being CSU's analog years). In those seasons, There were 2 primary sets of storms tracks:

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

1. A noticeable congregation of powerful Cape Verde hurricanes that moved westwards under the ridge and into the Caribbean and the United States.

2. Rapidly recurving storms in the far Eastern Atlantic near the Azores that did not affect land.

I believe we may see a similar pattern in 2013.

Again, while this may be an unsound meteorological assertion, the correlation seemed to work in about 90% of all hurricane seasons since 1950 and therefore it deserves some sort of recognition.

Your analog is definitely food for thought. Enjoyed it very much, except for the 2004 model. Really, don't want another season like that one for Florida this year. After Jeanne and Francis, I still suffer from PTS...Post Traumatic Storm Disorder! LOL Looking forward to the blog this season. I have learned so much from all of you.
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Quoting Brandon Sullivan:
Quoting Brandon Sullivan:
I messed up.. As someone who has worked years to pave a road to a career in the NWS, I messed up.. Myself, The Titans... None of are inexperienced or reckless.. Never have been, never will be.. But that said, I messed up today. I usually call the shots and I kept us there too long.. Although I am not officially associated with NWS or any affiliates, I must apologize to my colleagues in the offices and agencies.. I've worked hard to uphold the core mission of protecting life and property, but I let adrenaline and desire for the shot get to me today. A sincere apology to all those professionals who dedicate their daily lives to keeping people safe. I will keep chasing, but with a new and humbled approach.
Mr. Sullivan may be genuinely contrite, and, having learned an important lesson, may from now on, one would hope, resist the overwhelming urge to stick his head in the lion's mouth to prove it has sharp teeth. But his video is playing in endless loops on TWC and elsewhere--complete with his logo and website's URL--and he's been interviewed on multiple TV outlets (some national), and his logo and URL are also visible there on his hat and his shirt. There's nothing wrong with self-promotion, of course--that's how the game is played--but I'll lay good money down that as we speak there's a publicity-starved storm chaser somewhere seeing the attention being paid to Sullivan and thus planning on getting even closer next time a tornado rips across the landscape. And that guy--or the one after him, or the one after him--may not be as fortunate as Sullivan.

It's only a matter of time before someone gets the Jonas Miller treatment in real life. I can all but guarantee it...
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1792. hydrus
Quoting scottsvb:
btw no mention of the CMC model in the discussion cause we Don't Care about what the CMC says...tbh
GFS is interesting..Edit..Nevermind,,:)
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1791. JNTenne
Latest Video from OKC News 9

News 9 Pilot Jim Gardner Takes Aerial Look Of Tornado Damage In El Reno
Link
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Not really, SOme have been counting down to the start so I'm counting down to the end.
......LOL.....
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G'morning everyone,

Beautiful day here in OK . . . will give OKC time to dry out.

Phenomenal amount of rain fell in OKC! 5-10 inches.

So, have we heard from our from our favorite "Tropical Tidbit" generator - Levi.

Sure that he is fine, and probably floored by what he experienced yesterday. No pun intended :)
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1788. JNTenne
Mexico to Canada today...



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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
850 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...UPDATE ON MAY 31 SEVERE WEATHER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS DISPATCHED THREE DAMAGE
SURVEY CREWS TO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA THIS MORNING
TO DETERMINE THE NATURE AND EXTENT OF THE MAY 31ST STORMS.
INFORMATION FROM THESE TEAMS WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE VIA PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

$$
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Quoting interstatelover7165:
Bit early for that, huh.

Not really, some have been counting down to the start so I'm counting down to the end.
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btw no mention of the CMC model in the discussion cause we Don't Care about what the CMC says...tbh
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1516
1784. JNTenne
With a bit o'luck Barbara might get herself together and we could have another......



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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From Miami NWS Discussion...Quite the Read!

Sorry for the long post...

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A MONSOON TROUGH/LOW
PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GFS DEVELOPS THE LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS
SOUTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODEL IS SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK TIED TO MID LEVEL VORT ENERGY AND STRENGTHENS
THE LOW AND THEN THE SURROUNDING FLOW TOO MUCH AND TOO FAST. SO IT
HAS BEEN DISCARDED. THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN ON TUESDAY...GETTING PICKED UP INTO
THE GULF AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE LOW/MID LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING FURTHER NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE 850MB
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND TOWARDS NAPLES...AND 0-1KM HELICITY
VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SO THERE IS THE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS OVER THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE NAPLES
REGION. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAY ALSO BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT FOR
THE GULF COAST AND THEN INTO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE POSSIBLY TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES.

THE 00Z ECMWF RUN BACKS OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE GULF.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING IS LARGELY UNCHANGED...AND THIS BRINGS SOME
CONSISTENCY TO THE FORECAST. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND WHEN THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WILL BEGIN AND THEN FINALLY END. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
THAT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
MONDAY...AND BASED ON THE ECMWF...COULD CONCEIVABLY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF MINI
SUPERCELLS SOMETIME POSSIBLY IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
IF THE SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP SOMEWHAT IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAD THE 850MB FLOW STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS IN THE
MID WEEK PERIOD...WITH 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES ALSO INCREASING.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS SLIGHTLY. IT IS STILL
WAY TOO EARLY TO PICK OUT ANY TIMING OF A MINI SUPERCELL THREAT
OR IF IT WILL EVEN OCCUR...BUT THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY SO THAT
IS WHY IT IS MENTIONED. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER PAINTS THE
REGION WITH AREAWIDE TOTALS OF 7-10 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO WHAT THE ECMWF OUTPUTS ACROSS THE REGION AS
WELL. WITH THE GREATER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE
ECMWF...THIS COULD VERY WELL OCCUR. HOWEVER...WITH VARYING
SOLUTIONS FROM THE MODELS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE
ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
AS WELL.


100% correct and we won't know what will develop if anything more than a trough till Sunday afternoon
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1516
Quoting AGWcreationists:
And he wasn't the only chaser caught by this storm, Mike Bettis was as well. It probably was a tricky situation to estimate on the ground. Stuff happens. Main thing is to be glad no chasers got killed, and learn from it.


Well we don't know that for sure, 5 people died (2 were non-chasers) but we have no idea who the others are.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A message from Brandon Sullivan following his close call with the tornado:



I've seen a lot of people aggravated with storm chasers after what happened in the El Reno tornado yesterday, but I don't really think it's necessary. Tornadoes are hard to track in themselves, especially high precipitation, rain-wrapped ones. Everybody makes mistakes, this is just one of those times.
And he wasn't the only chaser caught by this storm, Mike Bettis was as well. It probably was a tricky situation to estimate on the ground. Stuff happens. Main thing is to be glad no chasers got killed, and learn from it.
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1780. JNTenne
Forecast Precip for today


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CMC Ensembles +96 hours
-Min Pressure for 90L is at most 991 mb





Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
1778. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I don't like those the analogs for PR.

1996=Hortense
1998=Georges
2004 Jeanne


Yeah unfortunately Levi, Bastardi and others including myself predict an active Cape Verde season with the north-eastern Caribbean at high risk so those types of storm tracks may occur again this year.
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Day One of Hurricane season and I am already nervous especially after the wet May here in PBC and then watching my snowbird neighbors across the lake leave permanently this time with a large moving truck yesterday.

I watched the tornado chasers on the weather channel last night that was truly amazing, the weather men did a great job and I am sure saved alot of lives with their warnings. I would definitely want a basement if I lived in those areas. We cannot have them here in Florida.

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Quoting AussieStorm:
182 days till the End of Hurricane season
Bit early for that, huh.
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Quoting SLU:
While this may be a totally unsound meteorological comparison, I did some research using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and found that in over 90% of the hurricane seasons since 1950, the storm tracks tend to resemble the surface pressure patterns established in the April to May timeframe. In areas where high pressure dominates in April to May, the storms generally seem to avoid these areas during the hurricane season but they tend to congregate where the pressures are lower in April to May.

So far this year in April to May, we have seen extremely high pressures persist near the North-eastern US and Eastern Canada both at the surface and the 500mb levels with lower pressures in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the North-eastern Atlantic near the Azores.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Based on that theory, we may see our storm tracks this year resemble that of the 1996, 1998 and 2004 hurricane seasons (1996 and 2004 both being CSU's analog years). In those seasons, There were 2 primary sets of storms tracks:

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

1. A noticeable congregation of powerful Cape Verde hurricanes that moved westwards under the ridge and into the Caribbean and the United States.

2. Rapidly recurving storms in the far Eastern Atlantic near the Azores that did not affect land.

I believe we may see a similar pattern in 2013.

Again, while this may be an unsound meteorological assertion, the correlation seemed to work in about 90% of all hurricane seasons since 1950 and therefore it deserves some sort of recognition.


I don't like those the analogs for PR.

1996=Hortense
1998=Georges
2004 Jeanne
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13260
Quoting SandBoxParamedic:
good evening from afghanistan, as a 2 o yr resident of key west, i am eagerly following predictions for this season,
Good morning and God Bless you.You are so right as to follow the weather for this season. I fear it is gonna be a rocky year this year.
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Good Morning! Hurricane season :)
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Good morning everyone.Sorry I wasn't able to be here at midnight for the start of the 2013 Hurricane season with all of you.I have health issues that didn't allow me to be here.Just glad that the bad weather last night is gone for Oklahoma.I am saddened by the loss of lives and property and am praying for all.
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good evening from afghanistan, as a 2 o yr resident of key west, i am eagerly following predictions for this season,
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Important this question= Is Complacency about Hurricanes back? If anyone wants to comment about this go to my blog.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13260
Quoting AussieStorm:
JetStream - Online School for Weather - Tropics


Hello Mate...long time don't see y'around. ..

Scary severe weather last night. ..I don't have time to check anything nor iits on my top interests.

Take care there Australia!
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The big story on this severe weather event now turns to flooding, as the Mississippi River in St. Louis surges toward one of its highest levels on record.
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1766. SLU
While this may be a totally unsound meteorological comparison, I did some research using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and found that in over 90% of the hurricane seasons since 1950, the storm tracks tend to resemble the surface pressure patterns established in the April to May timeframe. In areas where high pressure dominates in April to May, the storms generally seem to avoid these areas during the hurricane season but they tend to congregate where the pressures are lower in April to May.

So far this year in April to May, we have seen extremely high pressures persist near the North-eastern US and Eastern Canada both at the surface and the 500mb levels with lower pressures in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the North-eastern Atlantic near the Azores.

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Based on that theory, we may see our storm tracks this year resemble that of the 1996, 1998 and 2004 hurricane seasons (1996 and 2004 both being CSU's analog years). In those seasons, There were 2 primary sets of storms tracks:

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1. A noticeable congregation of powerful Cape Verde hurricanes that moved westwards under the ridge and into the Caribbean and the United States.

2. Rapidly recurving storms in the far Eastern Atlantic near the Azores that did not affect land.

I believe we may see a similar pattern in 2013.

Again, while this may be an unsound meteorological assertion, the correlation seemed to work in about 90% of all hurricane seasons since 1950 and therefore it deserves some sort of recognition.
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Quoting VR46L:
Hmm Just puttting it out there there is a Front forecast to be in the Gulf in 48hrs anyone wonder will it have a bearing on the 10% invest



The discussion up thread talks about the low developing some and moving over central Florida. So my guess is that Yes the front will have an impact. It is interesting to note, the low would be moving over the loop current if the loop current had fully developed.

Cheers
Qazulight
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WOW the Forecast for Tuesday!
Winds from the SSE at 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 2.0 in. possible.
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1762. VR46L
BTW Good Morning Folks!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6613
1761. VR46L
Hmm Just puttting it out there there is a Front forecast to be in the Gulf in 48hrs anyone wonder will it have a bearing on the 10% invest

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6613
Palm Beach International Airport received 15.7 inches of rain
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.