Tornadoes, Floods, and Severe Thunderstorms Continue in the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on May 31, 2013

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It was yet another active day for tornadoes, flooding, and severe thunderstorms in the Midwest on Thursday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 16 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Illinois. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas for the most part, but seven people were injured in Arkansas in two separate tornadoes, and two other people were hurt by lightning. The severe weather forced organizers of the outdoor Wakarusa Music Festival north of Ozark, Arkansas to delay the start of the festival. The band "Widespread Panic" was one of the groups scheduled to perform, leading to an Associated Press headline from yesterday titled, "Nine hurt in Arkansas storm; Widespread Panic delayed." Heavy rains from this week's thunderstorms have pushed the Mississippi River to major flood stage at most places from Burlington Iowa to Quincy Illinois, and the river is expected to crest near major flood stage at St. Louis early next week. In Iowa, the Cedar River at Cedar Falls, the Iowa River at Marengo, and the Skunk River near Sigourney and at Augusta are also in major flood. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Friday) over much of Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Joplin, Missouri, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 1. Lightning strike from a severe thunderstorm near Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 30, 2013, as photographed by KFOR-TV. (AP Photo/KFOR-TV)


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Joplin, Missouri. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

A mostly quiet year for violent tornadoes
After a very quiet March, April, and first half of May, the U.S. tornado season has become very active during the last half of May, and is beginning to catch up to normal. TWC's tornado expert Dr. Greg Forbes has a preliminary count of 181 tornadoes for the month of May, through May 29, which is 35% below the 10-year average of 279 through May 29th. May 2012 had only 121 tornadoes. The 2013 tornado tally has risen significantly in the last half of May, due to 7 of the last 15 days having above-average numbers of tornadoes. Fortunately, we are well below-average for strong and violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes so far in 2013. According to NOAA, the U.S. has averaged 43 EF-3 or stronger tornadoes per year during the period 1954 - 2012. With tornado season nearly half over, only twelve EF-3 and EF-4 tornadoes have been recorded so far in 2013. An average year should have had at least twenty of these tornadoes by this point in the year. Here are the twelve EF-3 and stronger tornadoes so far in 2013, as detailed in Wikipedia's excellent Tornadoes of 2013 page:

EF-5, May 20, Moore, Oklahoma. 24 deaths, 377 injuries, $2 billion in damage.
EF-4, May 28, Ottawa County, Kansas. Intensity based on mobile Doppler radar data. See the Capital Weather Gang's description of this tornado.
EF-4, May 19, Shawnee, Oklahoma. 2 deaths, 6 injuries.
EF-4, May 15, Granbury, TX. 6 deaths, 24+ injuries.
EF-4, May 18, Rozel, Kansas.
EF-4, February 10, Hattiesburg, MS. 0 deaths, 82 injuries.
EF-3, Corning, KS, May 28.
EF-3, May 27, Lebanon - Esbon, KS. 1 injured. Wind gust of 175 mph measured by TIV2 intercept vehicle.
EF-3, May 15, Cleburne, TX. No deaths or injuries.
EF-3, January 30, Adairsville, GA. 1 death, 17 injuries, 363 buildings damaged or destroyed.
EF-3, April 11, Kemper County, AL. 1 death, 9 injuries.
EF-3, May 19, Luther - Carney, Oklahoma.


Figure 3. The annual number of EF-3 and stronger tornadoes, 1954 - 2012. The greatest number of these dangerous tornadoes was 131 in 1974, the year of the notorious "Super Outbreak." The minimum was just 15, set in 1987. The average is 43 per year. Image credit: NOAA.


Video 1. Impressive 2-minute timelapse of the Bennington, Kansas wedge tornado of May 28, 2013, as filmed by the Aussie Storm Chasers. As discussed in an excellent blog post by Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang, the violent EF-4 tornado stood still for nearly an hour, and had wind gusts as high as 264 mph at an altitude of 300 feet measured by Doppler on Wheels.

Remains of Hurricane Barbara bringing heavy rains to Mexico
Hurricane Barbara died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. While there is no low level circulation apparent on satellite loops this Friday morning, there is a bit of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and the remains of Barbara are kicking up some heavy thunderstorm activity over the southernmost Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas of Mexico. Wind shear is a high 20 knots in the region, and the area of disturbed weather is quite small, so I don't expect any development to occur over the next few days. Wind shear is predicted to remain high over the Gulf of Mexico for the next six days, and none of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during that period. Late next week, wind shear is predicted to drop, and there is a better chance for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. Both the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that a strong tropical disturbance with heavy rains may affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and the Southwest Florida by Friday next week.


Figure 4. Remains of Hurricane Barbara in the southernmost Gulf of Mexico as seen by MODIS at 12:05 pm EDT Thursday, May 30, 2013. Barbara had just been declared dead one hour prior to this photo. Image credit: NASA.

Saturday, June 1, is the first day of hurricane season, and I'll post a quick look at what we might expect to see in June.

Jeff Masters

More Wild Weather 4 (Nikongranny)
More Wild Weather 4
Bennington, Ks Tornado (weatherfanatic2010)
This was one of the easiest chase days ever. Left Salina, Ks and thought about going after the storms to the NW but turned back after about 15 miles when the storm that spawned this tornado went up. Me and my group setup just west of Bennington about 20 minutes before this tornado touched down, catching a brief rope tornado about 10 minutes before this tornado touched down. It sat almost stationary for about 45 and we watched it's entire life cycle without having to move.
Bennington, Ks Tornado
LP Supercell (adkinsadam1)
LP Supercell
Lightning (tjlpowell)
Lightning

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No plans for now to send recon to check 90L.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 01 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

III. REMARKS: THIS IS THE FIRST TCPOD OF THIS SEASON,
A NEW ONE WILL NOW BE PUBLISHED EACH DAY THROUGH
30 NOVEMBER.
$$
INITIALS WVW
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1858. JNTenne

Quoting daddyjames:


Wow, glad you came out ok.

I live here, and love the weather, but I'm a ducker!

Really glad that you are ok, and be happy that you weren't with some of the other "expert" chasers.
Could you imaging having to deal with this without radio and sirens??
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1857. JNTenne
Quoting Carnoustie:
headline was"giant tumbeleweed destroys car" looks like a hay roll to me.

link won't work sorry.
Some people think that Hay Rolls grow that way naturally. ;) They are actually a product of a specialized piece of  farm equipment (Baler)  which is pulled by a tractor over a mown field of hay which produces these large "rolls" which can way up to 400 lb depending on moisture content... One of these being tossed by sufficient wind could do tremendous damage to anything in its path!


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Quoting sar2401:

I agree, except we are technically broke as a country.


"We" are not broke . . . just a large portion of the economic pie has been shifted to a smaller portion of the population . . . for a variety of reasons.
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1855. sar2401
Quoting AGWcreationists:
OK Death toll up to nine now, according to M.E.

This the same M.E.'s office that totally screwed up the fatality count 10 days ago in Moore. I think I'll wait for a bit before believing those numbers.
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Quoting stormchaser19:
I'm just skeptical with the amount of water vapor in the atlantic,the vertical instability has been near normal in general terms last couple weeks..So who is playing on this?




Remember that the water vapor satellite is very deceiving when assessing tropical regions. What appears to be dry air could be very high atmospheric moisture and what appears to be moist air could be fairly dry. That is not necessarily the case but it happens quite often. One great example is here in Central Florida, total PW is around 2 inches indicating lots of moisture to work with and numerous showers and thunderstorms will fire with heating of the day.

This can even be the case over non-tropical regions as well. Consider the southern plains including Oklahoma yesterday. In Oklahoma where the super cell explosion occurred. The water vapor satellite would have made it appear like the atmosphere was too dry for super cells to dump heavy rains explosively like they did. However, the PWAT was 1.5 to 1.75 in a very unstable environment indicating plenty of moisture available for HP super cells.


The PWAT is much greater for assessing how moist the atmosphere is as apposed to the water vapor satellite because it is a sum of water vapor throughout the atmospheric column whereas the water vapor satellite assess only the upper levels.

This is important because the upper atmosphere being much colder cannot hold nearly the amount of water. Therefore, on satellite a region could look moist but the lower half of the atmosphere is quite dry, indicating low PWAT or overall a dry atmosphere. Conversely, you could have very high moisture in the lower half of the atmosphere but dry air in the upper levels but due to high moisture in the lower half of the atmosphere, overall there is a lot of moisture available for heavy rainfall even though it looks dry on satellite.

The water vapor satellite is really best for assessing what is happening in the upper levels of the atmosphere since it can "see" what is happening in this region as apposed to infrared or visible. Therefore, its not that the water vapor satellite isn't valuable, it just isn't actually the product you want to use when wanting to know if a region is moist or dry. This is especially true in tropical regions.

Although, it is very useful for assessing tropical cyclones as well because the water vapor satellite is great for showing wind shear impacting tropical cyclones or a tropical cyclones ability to evacuate stable air away from it through its anti-cyclone.






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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Sad news from Oklahoma. My prayers to all the families involved.

The Oklahoma Office of the Chief of Medical Examiner tells NBC News seven adults and two children are confirmed dead, including a mother and her small child. At least five people killed were in vehicles and may have been trying to flee as dark clouds gathered and warning sirens wailed, authorities said.

Link


Interesting excerpt from that article:

At least five people killed were in vehicles and may have been trying to flee as dark clouds gathered and warning sirens wailed, authorities said.

So, the vast majority were in their cars . . .
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1851. sar2401
Quoting daddyjames:


Have to disagree with you JNTenn. Our government is supposed to be for the people. And if local and state governments, and the people that are being governed, cannot come to a consensus that shelters should be available to protect the general public - in high population centers - then what good is government?

And if we, as a members of the general population, can't agree that this is worth the cost, well that is placing a value on people's lives . . . which is, one could argue, downright evil.

I agree, except we are technically broke as a country. I am old enough to remember the huge spate of atomic bomb shelters built by the government in the 1950's, but nuclear war was considered almost a certainty then. The vast majority of places in tornado prone areas have never been hit by a fatal storm. If we had the national will to do so, I'm sure we could scrape up the money to build public shelters but I don't see that happening.

One thing that could be done now is require that any house rebuilt or replaced as a result of tornado damage be equipped with a family shelter. That could be done fairly rapidly at a state level, and the cost of shelter during rebuilding would be relatively minimal. A state insurance commission can make this happen in a few weeks if they really want to.
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1850. Patrap
Mike Bettes

Thank you all for the kind thoughts. Everyone is okay. Hopefully our mishap will teach us all to respect the weather & be responsible & safe at all costs. I thought I was doing the right thing, but obviously I wasn't. Lesson learned the hard way. Someone was watching over us. Very blessed to be headed home tomorrow to see my family.

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
OK Death toll up to nine now, according to M.E.
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Quoting Carnoustie:
headline was"giant tumbeleweed destroys car" looks like a hay roll to me.

link won't work sorry.


It was a Hayroll - we don't have tumbleweeds in OK, at least not that area.
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1847. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21239
headline was"giant tumbeleweed destroys car" looks like a hay roll to me.

link won't work sorry.
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1845. JNTenne
Quoting PedleyCA:


Game On. Wish I had a basement or cave to hide in. Forecast on the news is 100F for today. WU has it at 99F. Gonna hear a bunch of whining. Just a heads up....lol Normal is 82/58 currently 63.2 good beach day....
Who needs a shelter when you can drive 45 minutes and hang in the HB??
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Quoting bappit:

In Houston at least Friday afternoon is when people leave town for the weekend. Maybe OKC is the same way.


Extra peeps were in town for the College Softball World Series, and there was the Barons (hockey - yes we have hockey here) game scheduled in downtown. Many fans were there and "stuck".
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Quoting Levi32:



Would I go again? Yes, but not today, or tomorrow, and I would take even greater care.


Wow, glad you came out ok.

I live here, and love the weather, but I'm a ducker!

Really glad that you are ok, and be happy that you weren't with some of the other "expert" chasers.
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1842. bappit
Quoting beell:


Friday afternoon rush hour probably added a few cars on the road...

In Houston at least Friday afternoon is when people leave town for the weekend. Maybe OKC is the same way.
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1841. JNTenne
Quoting AussieStorm:


Did those people hit the roads to see the tornado or to escape it?
These wher running from it.. but with the instability you gotta wunder if a funnel will drop in front of you or right on your head?
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1840. sar2401
Quoting Levi32:



Yes, but not today, or tomorrow, and I would take even greater care. We had no clue we would get caught the way we did. I thought we had done everything right. We were kind of freaking out for a while. That velocity signature you guys saw with radar folding and multiple vortices - we were under the southern edge of it. We never got a clear view of the tornado, but we could tell just how close it was to our north. It was unreal. The inflow got pretty strong.

We were almost ready to jump out and take cover right before we found a route south, which ended up being slow. It became a six-lane highway south as everyone panicked and drove on the wrong side of the road. Even we did so. We thought we were clear until we saw the training of tornadic supercells on radar, all connected somehow. I've never seen anything like that. My best pictures of the day were of the wall cloud that followed behind the El Reno storm. We didn't see a funnel from that one either, but it chased us south for a long time, and we heard from radio that it spawned a confirmed tornado in Tuttle, and we realized that we were in Tuttle.

A third mesocyclone showed up behind that one as we continued slowly south, eventually reaching Blanchard. It looked weaker than the others but we weren't going to escape it, so we took shelter in a storm room in the local grocery store for about an hour. It then took a long time to find a way around the huge hail cores to get back home. Lightning flashes were occurring 10 times per second as we drove home in the dark. It was almost calming to watch as we got over the semi-shock that we were all in. None of us in the car had seen a tornado before. We didn't see one yesterday, but we were chased by two.

Levi, I'm glad to hear you are safe and got the chance to experience some real weather without being injured. Are any of you amateur radio operators? The OKC metro area has a very active Skywarn net that would gve you all some real-time ground truth when you're out. It would also help if one of you were able to call in your observations on the net. If none of you are hams, you can become a Technician by passing a 35 question test that even I was able to ace. ;-) For less than $100, you can get the equipment you'd need to get on the air.
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Sad news from Oklahoma. My prayers to all the families involved.

The Oklahoma Office of the Chief of Medical Examiner tells NBC News seven adults and two children are confirmed dead, including a mother and her small child. At least five people killed were in vehicles and may have been trying to flee as dark clouds gathered and warning sirens wailed, authorities said.

Link
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Interesting article, for those that may say you cannot build an appropriate above-ground shelter:
Oklahoma tornadoes: Aboveground shelters stood up in face of EF5 Moore tornado
Researchers who toured Moore after the May 20 tornado said aboveground storm shelters held up well in the storm and can be a better choice than underground storm cellars.
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good to hear twc forecaster bennis and his crew are alive. they were lucky .
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1836. auspiv
Quoting Levi32:



Would I go again? Yes, but not today, or tomorrow, and I would take even greater care. We had no clue we would get caught the way we did. I thought we had done everything right. We were kind of freaking out for a while. That velocity signature you guys saw with radar folding and multiple vortices - we were under the southern edge of it. We never got a clear view of the tornado, but we could tell just how close it was to our north. It was unreal. The inflow got pretty strong.

We were almost ready to jump out and take cover right before we found a route south, which ended up being slow. It became a six-lane highway south as everyone panicked and drove on the wrong side of the road. Even we did so. We thought we were clear until we saw the training of tornadic supercells on radar, all connected somehow. I've never seen anything like that. My best pictures of the day were of the wall cloud that followed behind the El Reno storm. We didn't see a funnel from that one either, but it chased us south for a long time, and we heard from radio that it spawned a confirmed tornado in Tuttle, and we realized that we were in Tuttle.

A third mesocyclone showed up behind that one as we continued slowly south, eventually reaching Blanchard. It looked weaker than the others but we weren't going to escape it, so we took shelter in a storm room in the local grocery store for about an hour. It then took a long time to find a way around the huge hail cores to get back home. Lightning flashes were occurring 10 times per second as we drove home in the dark. It was almost calming to watch as we got over the semi-shock that we were all in. None of us in the car had seen a tornado before. We didn't see one yesterday, but we were chased by two.


Thanks for sharing your experiences. Sounds like a day you'll never forget. Please post the pictures you got when you get a chance.
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1835. sar2401
Quoting VR46L:
Hmm Just puttting it out there there is a Front forecast to be in the Gulf in 48hrs anyone wonder will it have a bearing on the 10% invest


That "front" is really a low pressure trough that will have almost no dynamics and no cold air associated with by the time it gets to the Gulf. It will be probably wash out sometime Sunday morning over central Alabama. Those of us in south Alabama will be lucky to see a few showers. :-(
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1834. Levi32
Quoting daddyjames:


Happy that you came out unscathed! - boy, you came here for the experience, and you certainly are getting it.

Would you do it again?

Quoting CybrTeddy:


The tornado going through El Reno last night looked incredibly nasty on radar, did you get a good visual of it?


Would I go again? Yes, but not today, or tomorrow, and I would take even greater care. We had no clue we would get caught the way we did. I thought we had done everything right. We were kind of freaking out for a while. That velocity signature you guys saw with radar folding and multiple vortices - we were under the southern edge of it. We never got a clear view of the tornado, but we could tell just how close it was to our north. It was unreal. The inflow got pretty strong.

We were almost ready to jump out and take cover right before we found a route south, which ended up being slow. It became a six-lane highway south as everyone panicked and drove on the wrong side of the road. Even we did so. We thought we were clear until we saw the training of tornadic supercells on radar, all connected somehow. I've never seen anything like that. My best pictures of the day were of the wall cloud that followed behind the El Reno storm. We didn't see a funnel from that one either, but it chased us south for a long time, and we heard from radio that it spawned a confirmed tornado in Tuttle, when we realized that we were in Tuttle.

A third mesocyclone showed up behind that one as we continued slowly south, eventually reaching Blanchard. It looked weaker than the others but we weren't going to escape it, so we took shelter in a storm room in the local grocery store for about an hour. It then took a long time to find a way around the huge hail cores to get back home. Lightning flashes were occurring 10 times per second as we drove home in the dark. It was almost calming to watch as we got over the semi-shock that we were all in. None of us in the car had seen a tornado before. We didn't see one yesterday, but we were chased by two.
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1833. 7544
morning all so we have a yellow circle to start of the new 2013 season and alow may develope and form into a strom in the gull and move over fla as early as tuesday ? have a funny felling this season will not be boring as we kick off huricane saeson 2013 . !
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1832. hydrus
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning, all.

We now have internet back at our apartments. We made it home safely last night, but not until after an insanely wild day. One hour of chasing turned into six more of being chased by at least 2 tornadoes and a 3rd wall cloud, one of which was the one that went right through downtown Oklahoma City. At one point we were stuck in traffic underneath the El Rino wall cloud watching rotating, rising scud directly above the car. I am hoping and praying that the daylight does not reveal more fatalities.
Quite a few folks including myself were concerned if you were alright. Must have been an incredible experience for someone born and raised in Alaska.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21239
Quoting daddyjames:


I believe that are testing it,and still working out the bugs, but the data it generates should be treated lightly . . .


Appreciate it. Having that site back up will be really nice for those zoom shots once activity picks up
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1830. VR46L
3 Day Nam Loop Some rain for Florida But does not appear to be the levels of the CMC

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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning, all.

We now have internet back at our apartments. We made it home safely last night, but not until after an insanely wild day. One hour of chasing turned into six more of being chased by at least 2 tornadoes and a 3rd wall cloud, one of which was the one that went right through downtown Oklahoma City. At one point we were stuck in traffic underneath the El Rino wall cloud watching rotating, rising scud directly above the car. I am hoping and praying that the daylight does not reveal more fatalities.


The tornado going through El Reno last night looked incredibly nasty on radar, did you get a good visual of it?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24033
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

I just went to the NASA Earth Science interactive satellite imagery page and the imagery is back up. Is the GOES 13 Sat. back in service or are they feeding through another satellite ?. The " out of service" message is still up.

TIA


I believe that are testing it,and still working out the bugs, but the data it generates should be treated lightly . . .
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Quoting JNTenne:
looks like the Keys are in the bullseye too..
did everyone see the pictures from last week when it rained in key west,flooded downtown duval st and people were kayaking and paddleboarding, our drainage system is evaporation
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning, all.

We now have internet back at our apartments. We made it home safely last night, but not until after an insanely wild day. One hour of chasing turned into six more of being chased by at least 2 tornadoes and a 3rd wall cloud, one of which was the one that went right through downtown Oklahoma City. At one point we were stuck in traffic underneath the El Rino wall cloud watching rotating, rising scud directly above the car. I am hoping and praying that the daylight does not reveal more fatalities.


Happy that you came out unscathed! - boy, you came here for the experience, and you certainly are getting it.

Would you do it again?
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Quoting beell:


Friday afternoon rush hour probably added a few cars on the road...


many businesses in OKC let people go early . . . probably a combination of commute, people "getting out of the way" - or attempting to, and amateur chasers. After all, if you are going to be a chaser - how do you get the experience?
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I'm glad to see you're okay, Levi!!!
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning, all.

We now have internet back at our apartments. We made it home safely last night, but not until after an insanely wild day. One hour of chasing turned into six more of being chased by at least 2 tornadoes and a 3rd wall cloud, one of which was the one that went right through downtown Oklahoma City. At one point we were stuck in traffic underneath the El Rino wall cloud watching rotating, rising scud directly above the car. I am hoping and praying that the daylight does not reveal more fatalities.
So glad you are ok Levi.
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1821. beell
Quoting AussieStorm:


Did those people hit the roads to see the tornado or to escape it?


Friday afternoon rush hour probably added a few cars on the road...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16649


These would be the temps near or at the beaches nearest my location.
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Quoting seminolesfan:

Another great point here about the traffic and congestion issues of evacuation under pressure.

Something we see with tropical systems and longer lead times. Granted, also normally a larger evacuating population...

Getting out is good; Getting trapped is NOT!
Mannford, OK got hit by an EF-4 in 1984, including a church full of people Sunday morning. Everyone in the church survived. The only fatality was a man who drove to the church to get his wife.

Mannford Church Remembers Twister 25 Years Later
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1818. Levi32
Good morning, all.

We now have internet back at our apartments. We made it home safely last night, but not until after an insanely wild day. One hour of chasing turned into six more of being chased by at least 2 tornadoes and a 3rd wall cloud, one of which was the one that went right through downtown Oklahoma City. At one point we were stuck in traffic underneath the El Rino wall cloud watching rotating, rising scud directly above the car. I am hoping and praying that the daylight does not reveal more fatalities.
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1817. SLU
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:

Your analog is definitely food for thought. Enjoyed it very much, except for the 2004 model. Really, don't want another season like that one for Florida this year. After Jeanne and Francis, I still suffer from PTS...Post Traumatic Storm Disorder! LOL Looking forward to the blog this season. I have learned so much from all of you.


Thank you. All the best.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5163
Quoting JNTenne:



Talk about gambling?! But if you have not shelter what do you do? Maybe we can get Gates or Zuckerberg or Buffett to start a charity or something..



Have to disagree with you JNTenn. Our government is supposed to be for the people. And if local and state governments, and the people that are being governed, cannot come to a consensus that shelters should be available to protect the general public - in high population centers - then what good is government?

And if we, as a members of the general population, can't agree that this is worth the cost, well that is placing a value on people's lives . . . which is, one could argue, downright evil.
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Game On. Wish I had a basement or cave to hide in. Forecast on the news is 100F for today. WU has it at 99F. Gonna hear a bunch of whining. Just a heads up....lol Normal is 82/58 currently 63.2 good beach day....
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Good morning

I just went to the NASA Earth Science interactive satellite imagery page and the imagery is back up. Is the GOES 13 Sat. back in service or are they feeding through another satellite ?. The " out of service" message is still up.

TIA
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I'm just skeptical with the amount of water vapor in the atlantic,the vertical instability has been near normal in general terms last couple weeks..So who is playing on this?


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Quoting hydrus:
GFS is interesting..Edit..Nevermind,,:)



I hope the GFS precip map is incorrect, it has us barely getting anything, and south Florida has already had way more than us, that doesn't seem correct though anyway, the northern side of a system tends to be precip loaded, I don't see why that wouldn't be the case here either...
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Quoting seminolesfan:

Another great point here about the traffic and congestion issues of evacuation under pressure.

Something we see with tropical systems and longer lead times. Granted, also normally a larger evacuating population...

Getting out is good; Getting trapped is NOT!


They are actually making the same point I just made on TWC right now. Can only hope that many local and state governments reevaluate their position on public shelters . . . after all, it is supposed to be "government for, and by, the people".
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Quoting JNTenne:



Talk about gambling?! But if you have not shelter what do you do? Maybe we can get Gates or Zuckerberg or Buffett to start a charity or something..



Did those people hit the roads to see the tornado or to escape it?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.