Tornadoes, Floods, and Severe Thunderstorms Continue in the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on May 31, 2013

Share this Blog
50
+

It was yet another active day for tornadoes, flooding, and severe thunderstorms in the Midwest on Thursday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 16 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Illinois. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas for the most part, but seven people were injured in Arkansas in two separate tornadoes, and two other people were hurt by lightning. The severe weather forced organizers of the outdoor Wakarusa Music Festival north of Ozark, Arkansas to delay the start of the festival. The band "Widespread Panic" was one of the groups scheduled to perform, leading to an Associated Press headline from yesterday titled, "Nine hurt in Arkansas storm; Widespread Panic delayed." Heavy rains from this week's thunderstorms have pushed the Mississippi River to major flood stage at most places from Burlington Iowa to Quincy Illinois, and the river is expected to crest near major flood stage at St. Louis early next week. In Iowa, the Cedar River at Cedar Falls, the Iowa River at Marengo, and the Skunk River near Sigourney and at Augusta are also in major flood. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Friday) over much of Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Joplin, Missouri, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 1. Lightning strike from a severe thunderstorm near Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 30, 2013, as photographed by KFOR-TV. (AP Photo/KFOR-TV)


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Joplin, Missouri. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

A mostly quiet year for violent tornadoes
After a very quiet March, April, and first half of May, the U.S. tornado season has become very active during the last half of May, and is beginning to catch up to normal. TWC's tornado expert Dr. Greg Forbes has a preliminary count of 181 tornadoes for the month of May, through May 29, which is 35% below the 10-year average of 279 through May 29th. May 2012 had only 121 tornadoes. The 2013 tornado tally has risen significantly in the last half of May, due to 7 of the last 15 days having above-average numbers of tornadoes. Fortunately, we are well below-average for strong and violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes so far in 2013. According to NOAA, the U.S. has averaged 43 EF-3 or stronger tornadoes per year during the period 1954 - 2012. With tornado season nearly half over, only twelve EF-3 and EF-4 tornadoes have been recorded so far in 2013. An average year should have had at least twenty of these tornadoes by this point in the year. Here are the twelve EF-3 and stronger tornadoes so far in 2013, as detailed in Wikipedia's excellent Tornadoes of 2013 page:

EF-5, May 20, Moore, Oklahoma. 24 deaths, 377 injuries, $2 billion in damage.
EF-4, May 28, Ottawa County, Kansas. Intensity based on mobile Doppler radar data. See the Capital Weather Gang's description of this tornado.
EF-4, May 19, Shawnee, Oklahoma. 2 deaths, 6 injuries.
EF-4, May 15, Granbury, TX. 6 deaths, 24+ injuries.
EF-4, May 18, Rozel, Kansas.
EF-4, February 10, Hattiesburg, MS. 0 deaths, 82 injuries.
EF-3, Corning, KS, May 28.
EF-3, May 27, Lebanon - Esbon, KS. 1 injured. Wind gust of 175 mph measured by TIV2 intercept vehicle.
EF-3, May 15, Cleburne, TX. No deaths or injuries.
EF-3, January 30, Adairsville, GA. 1 death, 17 injuries, 363 buildings damaged or destroyed.
EF-3, April 11, Kemper County, AL. 1 death, 9 injuries.
EF-3, May 19, Luther - Carney, Oklahoma.


Figure 3. The annual number of EF-3 and stronger tornadoes, 1954 - 2012. The greatest number of these dangerous tornadoes was 131 in 1974, the year of the notorious "Super Outbreak." The minimum was just 15, set in 1987. The average is 43 per year. Image credit: NOAA.


Video 1. Impressive 2-minute timelapse of the Bennington, Kansas wedge tornado of May 28, 2013, as filmed by the Aussie Storm Chasers. As discussed in an excellent blog post by Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang, the violent EF-4 tornado stood still for nearly an hour, and had wind gusts as high as 264 mph at an altitude of 300 feet measured by Doppler on Wheels.

Remains of Hurricane Barbara bringing heavy rains to Mexico
Hurricane Barbara died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. While there is no low level circulation apparent on satellite loops this Friday morning, there is a bit of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and the remains of Barbara are kicking up some heavy thunderstorm activity over the southernmost Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas of Mexico. Wind shear is a high 20 knots in the region, and the area of disturbed weather is quite small, so I don't expect any development to occur over the next few days. Wind shear is predicted to remain high over the Gulf of Mexico for the next six days, and none of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during that period. Late next week, wind shear is predicted to drop, and there is a better chance for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. Both the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that a strong tropical disturbance with heavy rains may affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and the Southwest Florida by Friday next week.


Figure 4. Remains of Hurricane Barbara in the southernmost Gulf of Mexico as seen by MODIS at 12:05 pm EDT Thursday, May 30, 2013. Barbara had just been declared dead one hour prior to this photo. Image credit: NASA.

Saturday, June 1, is the first day of hurricane season, and I'll post a quick look at what we might expect to see in June.

Jeff Masters

More Wild Weather 4 (Nikongranny)
More Wild Weather 4
Bennington, Ks Tornado (weatherfanatic2010)
This was one of the easiest chase days ever. Left Salina, Ks and thought about going after the storms to the NW but turned back after about 15 miles when the storm that spawned this tornado went up. Me and my group setup just west of Bennington about 20 minutes before this tornado touched down, catching a brief rope tornado about 10 minutes before this tornado touched down. It sat almost stationary for about 45 and we watched it's entire life cycle without having to move.
Bennington, Ks Tornado
LP Supercell (adkinsadam1)
LP Supercell
Lightning (tjlpowell)
Lightning

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1960 - 1910

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42Blog Index

1960. sar2401
Quoting Levi32:


The entire NWS Norman office told me I should go, so there :)

Levi, I probably would have done the same at your age. As I wrote earlier, I really hope someone in your group is a ham radio operator and had a radio with him. When cell phones and air cards don't work, amateur radio still will. I know some NWS forecasters have gotten their ham tickets to they can be directly part of the Skywarn nets. If nothing else, have a scanner and program in the local Skywarn net frequencies so you can listen. I know from personal experience that Skywarn hams will often be the first to report a tornado actually on the ground, and will give a pretty good estimate of speed and direction. One more thing to have in your tool kit that might save your life.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1959. Patrap
Uploaded on Dec 25, 2008

A short clip from chase footage as Hurricane Elena's textbook eye moves over Biloxi, Mississippi on the morning of September 2, 1985.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1958. JNTenne

Quoting washingtonian115:
Hurricane season for me doesn't start till we see a storm either than that it's just empty words.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
we have a blob ! wheres gro


Always lurking:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good rain in WPB now!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1955. sar2401
Quoting 7544:
we have a blob !


Oh no! Not only is it the official start of hurricaine season, but we now have the official start of blob season. I haven't seen our resident blob expert yet, so this "thing" can't be an official blob until he says so. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1954. hydrus
The hot weather will be sticking around the western 3rd for a while...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1953. airmet3
Quoting Levi32:


I wasn't going to refuse my first real chase. I came down here thinking I wouldn't actually chase storms, but then when I saw supercell convection going up for the first time in my life, the first thing I wanted to do was go see it. The entire REU student group went out, and all with experienced people. I wasn't going to be the only one to stay behind.


I'm glad your first chase was a "success". Your experienced chaperones should know you give up the storm to avoid becoming a sitting duck. Words to live by on your next chase.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1952. sar2401
Quoting daddyjames:


I know. And I am not saying that this should be a federal issue, but should definitely be one here in OK, and definitely in regions of OK that have experienced this more frequently.

The state government here has been advocating "personal responsibility", and private homeowners should factor the cost of a shelter into the cost of buying a house.

One woman in Moore - can't remember where it was - said as she was trying to salvage something from what was left in her house (and I am paraphrasing): The next time, I'll forgo the granite countertops and whirlpool bath for a storm shelter.

The fact that the government has to mandate that apartment complexes, condos, and developers is just ridiculous. One could argue the morality of this, and it should be the "personal responsibilty" of the developers.

I'll give an example: grew up in South Florida. Parents live in the same house, they bought preconstruction, originally built in the '70's. Had it inspected recently to make sure it would meet the upgraded building codes for hurricanes. Inspector came down in amazement: the developer had constructed it such that the roof actually exceeds what is currently required in SoFl.
Just so happens, the developer lived in the neighborhood. He took personal responsibility to ensure that his neighbors would not be in danger.

I gotta step off my soapbox, and get other things done - my "personal responsibilities".

Everyone have a fantastic, and safe, day! Catch you later!

Indeed, and some measure of personal responsibility is really the issue. I live in a house constructed in 1920. The home inspector said the roof connections were superior to what he sees in modern construction. I also have a 20 x 36 CMU garage/storm shelter that will survive anything other than a direct hit. Since I live in a tornado prone area, I checked these kind of things out before I bought the house.

OTOH, there is also some measure of government responsibility too. Public storm shelters are never going to happen on any large scale, but there are steps that can be taken easily and cheaply that at least increase the chance of survival. My fiancé is a nurse in a 150 bed extended care facility. There is no requirement, on either a state or federal level, that health care facilities be equipped with a weather radio...and her facility wasn't. I picked up a nice Midland WR-100 at a garage sale for $5, programmed it, and installed it at their main nursing station. They have a part of the building that's built to resist storms but, until now, all they had was sirens going off, with no idea if a storm was really headed toward them and how much time they had before it hit. They just dragged all the patients out into this designated hall area every time the sirens went off. Surely something as small and inexpensive as a weather radio should be mandatory equipment in any public facility, but especially health care facilities.

Have a good day. I hope things are a little calmer up your way for the rest of the weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1951. 7544
we have a blob ! wheres gro
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I can't remember a time when we had an Invest and no model plots available.


Look in the 70's
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1949. hydrus
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
El Reno tornado is ranked EF3 already and it's still very early in surveying. However, I've not seen a picture suggesting EF5 damage yet, although I saw a picture that MIGHT suggest an EF4 damage depending on strength of structure. I really doubt we got EF5 last night despite what the radar said. I mean, Moore tornado barely got an EF5 status because of one spot. It's really hard to get an EF5 ranking.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8032
CMC 12z





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1946. bappit
Quoting SafeInTexas:


... The chance of a tornado hitting your particular house is low even though the chance of a tornado hitting the area is high.

Sounds a bit like driving a car.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1944. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO... as Mommy used to say... if your buddy jumps off a bridge....

That being said...

I would have probably done the same thing as you... its easy to sit back and say something different :)


The entire NWS Norman office told me I should go, so there :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


I wasn't going to refuse my first real chase. I came down here thinking I wouldn't actually chase storms, but then when I saw supercell convection going up for the first time in my life, the first thing I wanted to do was go see it. The entire REU student group went out, and all with experienced people. I wasn't going to be the only one to stay behind.


ROFLMAO... as Mommy used to say... if your buddy jumps off a bridge....

That being said...

I would have probably done the same thing as you... its easy to sit back and say something different :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1942. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:


Well, 90L is at 1008mb right now. Must be a TD going by your reckoning...

90L INVEST 20kts 1008mb 20.3N - 95.6W


Uh-oh. The pressure at my house right now in south Alabama is 1010 millibars. Except for some scattered CU, there's nothing happening. Should I start getting out the plywood now? ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1941. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have always found you to be a very logical and practical young man.. not to mention extremely smart in regards to weather and effect.

I must admit.. this attempt at a 2013 Darwin award comes as a bit of a shock.


I wasn't going to refuse my first real chase. I came down here thinking I wouldn't actually chase storms, but then when I saw supercell convection going up for the first time in my life, the first thing I wanted to do was go see it. The entire REU student group went out, and all with experienced people. I wasn't going to be the only one to stay behind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane season for me doesn't start till we see a storm either than that it's just empty words.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
vis loop 90l it seems as if there is a wk circulation spinning
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1938. 7544
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
12Z GFS 114HR out


thanks it went from 15 inches of rain now at 21 inches for fl wow !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:


Average number of non-fatal hospitalizations due to heat wave caused illnesses annually in the US = ~6,100

Air conditioning would still prevent more injuries and hospitalization costs than public tornado shelters. Both issues are pointless, since there is no public will to provide either public shelters or air conditioning. If the numbers of deaths and injuries from the 2011 tornado outbreaks didn't mobilize public opinion, the relatively (no disrespect intended) small number of deaths and injuries so far this year won't do it either.


I know. And I am not saying that this should be a federal issue, but should definitely be one here in OK, and definitely in regions of OK that have experienced this more frequently.

The state government here has been advocating "personal responsibility", and private homeowners should factor the cost of a shelter into the cost of buying a house.

One woman in Moore - can't remember where it was - said as she was trying to salvage something from what was left in her house (and I am paraphrasing): The next time, I'll forgo the granite countertops and whirlpool bath for a storm shelter.

The fact that the government has to mandate that apartment complexes, condos, and developers is just ridiculous. One could argue the morality of this, and it should be the "personal responsibilty" of the developers.

I'll give an example: grew up in South Florida. Parents live in the same house, they bought preconstruction, originally built in the '70's. Had it inspected recently to make sure it would meet the upgraded building codes for hurricanes. Inspector came down in amazement: the developer had constructed it such that the roof actually exceeds what is currently required in SoFl.
Just so happens, the developer lived in the neighborhood. He took personal responsibility to ensure that his neighbors would not be in danger.

I gotta step off my soapbox, and get other things done - my "personal responsibilities".

Everyone have a fantastic, and safe, day! Catch you later!
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
1935. SLU
Quoting AussieStorm:


Well, 90L is at 1008mb right now. Must be a TD going by your reckoning...


Well it's all relative to the background air pressure. I remember tropical storm Chris in 2006 had ridiculously high air pressures around 1010 - 1012mb but it was still able to generate 50 - 60mph because of the high background air pressure of over 1020mb and the tight pressure gradient.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Systems can easily have a pressure of 1002mbs-1008 without it being a closed circulation. It could be broad or a strong inverted trough...like the GFS has been showing. Too early to tell just yet
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1692
I can't remember a time when we had an Invest and no model plots available.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12Z GFS 114HR out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
And here was one of the velocity shots from my friend's phone with our GPS location. There's one not posted yet where we were under the edge of the cyan colors. At this point we had just managed to turn south and were at a standstill in traffic and couldn't move, and the second tornado to the west was headed in our direction, evident by its warning polygon. The El Reno storm is the one we are closest to, and it was passing east of us at this point, but just 10 minutes before we were a little scared. We looked up above the car and saw the wall cloud over top of us, with very quick rotation and rising scud indicating the updraft. We were definitely too close. I still can't believe this happened to us yesterday.



I have always found you to be a very logical and practical young man.. not to mention extremely smart in regards to weather and effect.

I must admit.. this attempt at a 2013 Darwin award comes as a bit of a shock.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12Z
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello everyone!!Glad to hear Levi is ok...Whew that was a scary situation yesterday!!!! Anything interesting brewing in the tropics?!?!?!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:


1005mb in the Atlantic is well with tropical storm range given that normal air pressure in the tropics is around 1013mb.


Well, 90L is at 1008mb right now. Must be a TD going by your reckoning...

90L INVEST 20kts 1008mb 20.3N - 95.6W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rain coming!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I agree, this looks like a typical early-June sheared sheep with most of the convection pushed off to the east.


correct...shear, dry air..more of a MLC with a LLV inverted trough..hard getting a west wind probably also from what the GFS shows until the midlevel moisture runs off to the east.

Recon probably go in there on Tues and have a hard time finding a LLC with a west wind (that's if the GFS verifys)

But again, will know more by Sunday
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1692
Quoting daddyjames:


Aussie, there is a great, and free, online course at:

MetEd
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/

All you have to do is register - but it takes 8 hours to complete that module.

I am two hours into it.



Ok, I might have a look at it in the morning. 2:30am here so I should get to bed.

Goodnight. Stay well, stay safe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1923. SLU
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
NOT GOING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA THOUGH IT WILL HOOK RIGHT OR LEFT AND MISS CENTRAL FLORIDA IM SURE THEY ALWAYS MISS


Still a bit too early to tell where it will go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1922. airmet3
Quoting Neapolitan:
Mr. Sullivan may be genuinely contrite, and, having learned an important lesson, may from now on, one would hope, resist the overwhelming urge to stick his head in the lion's mouth to prove it has sharp teeth. But his video is playing in endless loops on TWC and elsewhere--complete with his logo and website's URL--and he's been interviewed on multiple TV outlets (some national), and his logo and URL are also visible there on his hat and his shirt. There's nothing wrong with self-promotion, of course--that's how the game is played--but I'll lay good money down that as we speak there's a publicity-starved storm chaser somewhere seeing the attention being paid to Sullivan and thus planning on getting even closer next time a tornado rips across the landscape. And that guy--or the one after him, or the one after him--may not be as fortunate as Sullivan.

It's only a matter of time before someone gets the Jonas Miller treatment in real life. I can all but guarantee it...


You hit the nail on the head. I'm afraid these folks will be treated as some form of hero.

The other thing that continues to amaze me is the folks "chasing" the storms by trying to out run ahead of it seems to be an accepted practice now. Back in the old days (Sorry to use the cliché), when all I had was a weather radio, paper roadmaps and a pocket full of quarters, we truly "chased" from behind. Never really had a problem or close call for that matter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1921. SLU
Quoting AussieStorm:


1005mb wouldn't be Andrea, it's not even a TD.


1005mb in the Atlantic is well with tropical storm range given that normal air pressure in the tropics is around 1013mb.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scottsvb:


this has been posted many times and it's partially correct... GFS has been doing convective feedback but it could be correct by pushing the midlevel moisture off to the east while the LLC and broad around 1004mbs hangs out in the eastern GOM into late week.
Alot of dry air and shear should keep this from getting really organized..it could become a TS Tues-Weds but too early to tell if it will or not.


I agree, this looks like a typical early-June sheared sheep with most of the convection pushed off to the east, so the GFS at least has that part right.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24256
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Nws Ruskin reinforced their forecast for a hefty sea breeze collision over west central Florida today in their morning update. The winds along the coast are taking their sweet time coming around to the west, though. We are REALLY behind in rainfall, so I'm hoping for at least an inch today. Who knows


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1148 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
BISCAYNE BAY

* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT

* AT 1139 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
FORMATION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WATERSPOUTS 11 NM EAST OF SURFSIDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS.

THE COAST GUARD REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD ESTIMATED TO BE 3 MILES FROM
MIAMI BEACH NEAR 35TH STREET.
WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO
THE MIDLEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MORE
SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE WATER...MARINERS CAN EXPECT STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...HIGH SEAS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. MOVE
TO SAFE HARBOR OR STAY CLOSE TO SHORE UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. IF
CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER...MAKE SURE ALL SAFETY GEAR IS AVAILABLE AND
LIFE JACKETS ARE BEING WORN BY YOU AND YOUR CREW.

WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
SEAS. YOUR BEST COURSE OF EVASIVE ACTION IF THREATENED BY A
WATERSPOUT IS TO MOVE AT A 90 DEGREE ANGLE FROM ITS APPARENT
MOVEMENT. SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1918. 7544
watchin the blob over western cuba see if it heads to the gulf latter on if it does then we need to watch it .imo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1917. SLU
Quoting pottery:

Loving this breezy weather, SLU.
But looking East at the Tropical Atlantic, and seeing some heavy rains coming.....


Yes it's been very hazy too. Need some rain to wash away the SAL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
How do I read this???



Aussie, there is a great, and free, online course at:

MetEd
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/

All you have to do is register - but it takes 8 hours to complete that module.

I am two hours into it.

Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
1915. Dakster
Levi32 - Welcome to the Lower 48.... Glad you are OK.

I know this is surely an experience you won't forget!

Next you need to experience a Cat 5 Hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:


THE 0.25KM ECMWF PUSHES A SLUG OF 2.50+"
PRECIPITABLE WATER-LADEN AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA, INCLUDING
THE KEYS, NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, SUPPORTING MANY INCHES
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. WILL BE COORDINATING WITH THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THE FIRST MEDIUM-RANGE HOTLINE CALL
OF THE YEAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO DISCUSS ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS WELL AS ANY OTHERS OVER THE NEARBY
OCEANS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Short excerpt from the Miami NWS:

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A MONSOON TROUGH/LOW
PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GFS DEVELOPS THE LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS
SOUTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODEL IS SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK TIED TO MID LEVEL VORT ENERGY AND STRENGTHENS
THE LOW AND THEN THE SURROUNDING FLOW TOO MUCH AND TOO FAST. SO IT
HAS BEEN DISCARDED.


this has been posted many times and it's partially correct... GFS has been doing convective feedback but it could be correct by pushing the midlevel moisture off to the east while the LLC and broad around 1004mbs hangs out in the eastern GOM into late week.
Alot of dry air and shear should keep this from getting really organized..it could become a TS Tues-Weds but too early to tell if it will or not.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1692
1912. sar2401
Quoting daddyjames:


Let's not focus on deaths, we have tendency to underestimate the impact of injuries.

And public shelters - constructed for tornadoes - could actually serve a dual purpose . . .


Average number of non-fatal hospitalizations due to heat wave caused illnesses annually in the US = ~6,100

Air conditioning would still prevent more injuries and hospitalization costs than public tornado shelters. Both issues are pointless, since there is no public will to provide either public shelters or air conditioning. If the numbers of deaths and injuries from the 2011 tornado outbreaks didn't mobilize public opinion, the relatively (no disrespect intended) small number of deaths and injuries so far this year won't do it either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
I didn't get the best pictures. My friends got much better ones. I'm not a good photographer, my camera is bad, and I didn't have it in hand at some of the most intense moments, but here are a couple I managed to grab.

El Reno wall cloud from afar, turning in our direction at the time while we were watching. We were sure at one point we could see the wedge in there amongst the rain curtains, or at least the left half of it, but we never got a clear shot. We took off pretty quickly after seeing it turn our way on radar anyway, so we didn't have much time to watch.



Beautiful mammatus from the El Reno storm, the first I've ever seen.



Much later in the day now after the semi-panic under the El Reno wall cloud, the second storm's wall cloud showed up behind us.




...and it got closer.



Beautiful cyan tint in the sky indicating hail.



Highway 4 at a near standstill as far as the eye can see, both northbound and southbound, but all heading south. Even we drove on the wrong side of the highway for quite some time.

very nice chase. From cool Alaska, to raging supercells within a month lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Terrible model consistency coming from the models, the only model showing any real consistent develop is the typically over-zealous CMC. I hate these kinds of situations, either drop it entirely or develop it instead of flipping each run and making 90L into a disorganized trough with several lows. It looks like the GFS is suffering from Debby-syndrome and having convective feedback problems. I suspect the models will get a better grip on this situation as we move closer to the predicted time of genesis.

EDIT -- and right as I posted that, post 1908 appears. The GFS does appear to be having convective feedback problems and should be discounted until it either drops any sort of development outside a trough or shows an actual tropical cyclone, not this 4-5 low nonsense.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24256

Viewing: 1960 - 1910

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
59 °F
Overcast