Tornadoes, Floods, and Severe Thunderstorms Continue in the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on May 31, 2013

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It was yet another active day for tornadoes, flooding, and severe thunderstorms in the Midwest on Thursday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 16 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Illinois. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas for the most part, but seven people were injured in Arkansas in two separate tornadoes, and two other people were hurt by lightning. The severe weather forced organizers of the outdoor Wakarusa Music Festival north of Ozark, Arkansas to delay the start of the festival. The band "Widespread Panic" was one of the groups scheduled to perform, leading to an Associated Press headline from yesterday titled, "Nine hurt in Arkansas storm; Widespread Panic delayed." Heavy rains from this week's thunderstorms have pushed the Mississippi River to major flood stage at most places from Burlington Iowa to Quincy Illinois, and the river is expected to crest near major flood stage at St. Louis early next week. In Iowa, the Cedar River at Cedar Falls, the Iowa River at Marengo, and the Skunk River near Sigourney and at Augusta are also in major flood. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Friday) over much of Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Joplin, Missouri, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 1. Lightning strike from a severe thunderstorm near Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 30, 2013, as photographed by KFOR-TV. (AP Photo/KFOR-TV)


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Joplin, Missouri. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

A mostly quiet year for violent tornadoes
After a very quiet March, April, and first half of May, the U.S. tornado season has become very active during the last half of May, and is beginning to catch up to normal. TWC's tornado expert Dr. Greg Forbes has a preliminary count of 181 tornadoes for the month of May, through May 29, which is 35% below the 10-year average of 279 through May 29th. May 2012 had only 121 tornadoes. The 2013 tornado tally has risen significantly in the last half of May, due to 7 of the last 15 days having above-average numbers of tornadoes. Fortunately, we are well below-average for strong and violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes so far in 2013. According to NOAA, the U.S. has averaged 43 EF-3 or stronger tornadoes per year during the period 1954 - 2012. With tornado season nearly half over, only twelve EF-3 and EF-4 tornadoes have been recorded so far in 2013. An average year should have had at least twenty of these tornadoes by this point in the year. Here are the twelve EF-3 and stronger tornadoes so far in 2013, as detailed in Wikipedia's excellent Tornadoes of 2013 page:

EF-5, May 20, Moore, Oklahoma. 24 deaths, 377 injuries, $2 billion in damage.
EF-4, May 28, Ottawa County, Kansas. Intensity based on mobile Doppler radar data. See the Capital Weather Gang's description of this tornado.
EF-4, May 19, Shawnee, Oklahoma. 2 deaths, 6 injuries.
EF-4, May 15, Granbury, TX. 6 deaths, 24+ injuries.
EF-4, May 18, Rozel, Kansas.
EF-4, February 10, Hattiesburg, MS. 0 deaths, 82 injuries.
EF-3, Corning, KS, May 28.
EF-3, May 27, Lebanon - Esbon, KS. 1 injured. Wind gust of 175 mph measured by TIV2 intercept vehicle.
EF-3, May 15, Cleburne, TX. No deaths or injuries.
EF-3, January 30, Adairsville, GA. 1 death, 17 injuries, 363 buildings damaged or destroyed.
EF-3, April 11, Kemper County, AL. 1 death, 9 injuries.
EF-3, May 19, Luther - Carney, Oklahoma.


Figure 3. The annual number of EF-3 and stronger tornadoes, 1954 - 2012. The greatest number of these dangerous tornadoes was 131 in 1974, the year of the notorious "Super Outbreak." The minimum was just 15, set in 1987. The average is 43 per year. Image credit: NOAA.


Video 1. Impressive 2-minute timelapse of the Bennington, Kansas wedge tornado of May 28, 2013, as filmed by the Aussie Storm Chasers. As discussed in an excellent blog post by Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang, the violent EF-4 tornado stood still for nearly an hour, and had wind gusts as high as 264 mph at an altitude of 300 feet measured by Doppler on Wheels.

Remains of Hurricane Barbara bringing heavy rains to Mexico
Hurricane Barbara died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. While there is no low level circulation apparent on satellite loops this Friday morning, there is a bit of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and the remains of Barbara are kicking up some heavy thunderstorm activity over the southernmost Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas of Mexico. Wind shear is a high 20 knots in the region, and the area of disturbed weather is quite small, so I don't expect any development to occur over the next few days. Wind shear is predicted to remain high over the Gulf of Mexico for the next six days, and none of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during that period. Late next week, wind shear is predicted to drop, and there is a better chance for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. Both the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that a strong tropical disturbance with heavy rains may affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and the Southwest Florida by Friday next week.


Figure 4. Remains of Hurricane Barbara in the southernmost Gulf of Mexico as seen by MODIS at 12:05 pm EDT Thursday, May 30, 2013. Barbara had just been declared dead one hour prior to this photo. Image credit: NASA.

Saturday, June 1, is the first day of hurricane season, and I'll post a quick look at what we might expect to see in June.

Jeff Masters

More Wild Weather 4 (Nikongranny)
More Wild Weather 4
Bennington, Ks Tornado (weatherfanatic2010)
This was one of the easiest chase days ever. Left Salina, Ks and thought about going after the storms to the NW but turned back after about 15 miles when the storm that spawned this tornado went up. Me and my group setup just west of Bennington about 20 minutes before this tornado touched down, catching a brief rope tornado about 10 minutes before this tornado touched down. It sat almost stationary for about 45 and we watched it's entire life cycle without having to move.
Bennington, Ks Tornado
LP Supercell (adkinsadam1)
LP Supercell
Lightning (tjlpowell)
Lightning

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96 hrs.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seminolesfan:


Looks like that loop eddy is soon to fully separate, if it hasn't already. (Especially with those low/cool pools poised to pinch in...) What cha think, MLC?


We saw first-hand what that mound of rocket fuel can do to a system with Katrina. Any system crossing that becomes strengthened by magnitudes. It's like a bulls-eye on a tropical dartboard - the storm wins.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The MDR has cooled a lot in recent weeks but this trend will not last for long as the sun angle is at maximum at this time. Is all about the NAO and trade winds that cause these fluctuations.



Also a large TUTT can cause some insolation issues at the surface.

But you are 100% correct about the NAO driven trade winds having a huge impact, even if not the sole driver.

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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Why is your opinion that they are"crazy"? Current conditions do not warrant their forecast? Or?


A cat 1 is not going to hit tampa in 3 days.
CMC is crazy

GFS has an odd split.
The east coast part i'll believe.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The MDR has cooled a lot in recent weeks but this trend will not last for long as the sun angle is at maximum at this time. Is all about the NAO and trade winds that cause these fluctuations.



Is there a reason why this chart is so much colder in the GOMEX than the NOAA/NESDIS chart?

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The MDR has cooled a lot in recent weeks but this trend will not last for long as the sun angle is at maximum at this time. Is all about the NAO and trade winds that cause these fluctuations.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14410
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
not much to look at now

CMC is crazy....so is GFS

this may go up the east coast as a depression or remnant low

Why is your opinion that they are"crazy"? Current conditions do not warrant their forecast? Or?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Looks like that loop eddy is soon to fully separate, if it hasn't already. (Especially with those low/cool pools poised to pinch in...) What cha think, MLC?
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Install strong hood clamps next time. Fixable.


Maybe some hood pins?

Something like:


(I mean, Drag racers hit EF5 speeds, right?)
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Quoting Dakster:


Nice... The last thing I would be asking Levi to do right now is a tidbit. But knowing Levi he probably will figure out a way to do one.


I'm certainly not expecting one.
I don't see why he would.
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1997. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Up to 9 now, 75 injured.


could of been a lot worse
even 9 is too many
someday I would like to see 0 for every storm

we may not be able to win against nature but we can sure move out of her way
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54634
1996. Dakster
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Considering you are just off a chase and far from home, are you in any position to do a tropical tidbit Levi?


Nice... The last thing I would be asking Levi to do right now is a tidbit. But knowing Levi he probably will figure out a way to do one.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
afternoon everyone what was the final death count on the storms yesterday last I heard was 5 is that still the case

5 too many
I would like to see 0 but that may be asking for too much



glad it wasn't 500


Up to 9 now, 75 injured.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24253
European Model has begun its afternoon run.

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Wow, Reed's car really lose his hood...

‏@reedtimmerTVN 8h
nothing but a flesh wind on the Dominator.. @jimcantore @stormpics @kfor @emilyrsutton pic.twitter.com/qUUyhQbk1Z


Install strong hood clamps next time. Fixable.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1992. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
afternoon everyone what was the final death count on the storms yesterday last I heard was 5 is that still the case

5 too many
I would like to see 0 but that may be asking for too much



glad it wasn't 500
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54634
not much to look at now

CMC is crazy....so is GFS

this may go up the east coast as a depression or remnant low

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1990. Patrap
evacuspots(n):

1. The official meeting places where anyone can go for a safe ride if New Orleans must call for a mandatory evacuation.

2. The exact same places residents will have a ride back to once the City is safe and re-entry begins.



Why Evacuspots:

One of the major improvements in the recovery of New Orleans post-Hurricane Katrina is the free, public evacuation option called City Assisted Evacuation (CAE). The CAE is citywide and can accommodate the over 30,000 residents who lack the ability to evacuate in advance of a Category 3 or higher hurricane.

EvacuSpots was proposed to meet the needs and concerns of New Orleans residents. EvacuSpots is a replicable solution to a critical weakness in our city's safety; the small, inconspicuous size of the signs marking the 17 evacuation pick-up points (below left) were identified as a crucial barrier to citizen awareness of and participation in the CAE.

The City's 17 evacuation points will now be clearly and consistently marked by identical 14-foot sculptures EvacuSpots.



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Considering you are just off a chase and far from home, are you in any position to do a tropical tidbit Levi?
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If you live in Central Florida today there are two Hurricane Expos going on:
Central Florida Fairgrounds
Seminole Towne Center

Just came back from both and got myself a Midland weather radio for free at the Central Florida Fairgrounds.

I got to speak to a meterologist from the NWS Melbourne and Jeff Day Chief meterologist from News 13 at Seminole Towne Center. Both laughed at the CMC and said it is worthless to look at, and few to none of the NWS offices even use it, despite the HPC using it. The NWS met from Melbourne said GFS is best in close 3-5 day range and ECMWF is just as good at mid range. Neither Jeff or the NWS met from Melbourne were too enthuiastic on development in the Gulf of Mexico at this time.
If you have the opportunity to go do so, you will learn alot!
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1986. Patrap
When you dance with the eyewall,or Large Nado,one can only be cautious.

Nature's fury when tested, will win in time,as she care's not for the futility nor folly of man.


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I find it strange that a tropical depression would split in half in the GOM, but it's possible...would follow other models in going up East coast.

Also the storm moves near the warm gulf loop eddy i believe. Only 84hrs out
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
I cannot believe the OK City area was impacted by YET another tornado yesterday. Central Oklahoma must be the must tornado-prone area in the world. My heart goes out to all those who lost loved ones.

Regarding the potential Gulf system next week, I am just rooting for some rain, as we haven't had that much around here lately.


Yes its very sad what happened yesterday. I avoided the blog yesterday because I was working and because the posting was so numerous I would have felt overwhelmed discussing what happened last night.

Hence the reason I talk more about local weather. It's not that daily convection in Florida is more important than deadly tornado outbreaks in Oklahoma, its just that I feel like a number amidst a sea of posting during such tragic and serious events. Te same goes when it gets insane here during hurricane impacts. I prefer to keep to weather affiliated with my area simply because there are so many posts about more large scale events I'm not sure where I'd begin with.

Even when hurricanes are affecting my area I don't post a whole lot if the blogs are really busy simply because of the chaos. Usually I'll post after it calms down to reflect on what happened and my thoughts on it.
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the frist yellow at 10%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
From local mets "If this system develops and moves toward the west coast of Florida, we could have a very rainy and windy middle and end of next week.
If the system develops and moves toward Louisiana, we may see very little or no impact from it at all. "




It's funny they are saying that because the system is expected to be very large and disorganized, and according to the NWS in Ruskin and in Melbourne, just the system beginning to lift northeast will spread deeper tropical moisture northward tomorrow through Tuesday.

That is, even if the system did move into Louisiana which seems unlikely at this point according to all model outputs, it would STILL affect Florida with a deep tropical moist flow on the east side. The wording there is more consistent with what you would expect with a strong hurricane that is smaller and more symmetric.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Thanks for the response!

I always use the SFWMD site for plots. What is posted is what they had up there yesterday. Why wont they tag it 90L?


I believe for the same reason Wunderground does not have 90L, there has been no Computer Hurricane Guidance generated for 90L and I believe they both use CHG to kick off invests in the Atlantic Basin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1980. Patrap
We have.

; )


Quoting Patrap:
Mike Bettes

Thank you all for the kind thoughts. Everyone is okay. Hopefully our mishap will teach us all to respect the weather & be responsible & safe at all costs. I thought I was doing the right thing, but obviously I wasn't. Lesson learned the hard way. Someone was watching over us. Very blessed to be headed home tomorrow to see my family.

Unlike Share 2 hours ago
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everyone look at this picture!!
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 011731
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS POORLY ORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Avila's back!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24253
1977. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011731
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS POORLY ORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Are the models still in quasi/in the ballpark agreement on something in the eastern gulf in 5-6 days?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


hotdog=showoff
Thanks for explanation. Yeah, I do believe he is attention seeker most of the time and over hypes things... but he got a good amount of passion for storms and I respect that. He got his doctor degree and is researcher now.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Not sure what you meant by hot dog? Never heard that term before to describe someone...


hotdog=showoff
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
I cannot believe the OK City area was impacted by YET another tornado yesterday. Central Oklahoma must be the must tornado-prone area in the world. My heart goes out to all those who lost loved ones.

Regarding the potential Gulf system next week, I am just rooting for some rain, as we haven't had that much around here lately.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


IMHO Timmer is a Hotdog, albeit a smart and useful hotdog.


Not sure what you meant by hot dog? Never heard that term before to describe someone...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


IMHO Timmer is a Hotdog, albeit a smart and useful hotdog.


I actually like Reed, granted he's a bit hyperactive during the thick of it but I feel sometimes his enthusiasm he brings to his field of work would echo my own if I could do that.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24253
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm just saying he got instruments on top of his "Dominator" that could have live-saving datas that the scientists can use to study tornadoes and information from these studies could one day save our lives in not too far future. Just saying...


IMHO Timmer is a Hotdog, albeit a smart and useful hotdog.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Two EF3s and one EF2 struck St. Louis metro area from one supercell.

000
NOUS43 KLSX 011718
PNSLSX
ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018 -019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-0 99-012330-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1218 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...DAMAGE SURVEY RESULTS FOR THE EVENING OF MAY 31ST...

THREE STORM SURVEY TEAMS ARE CURRENTLY ASSESSING THE DAMAGE FROM
LAST NIGHT`S STORMS IN EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.
THE FOLLOWING ARE REPORTS THAT ARE BEING RECEIVING FROM THE TEAMS
WHILE THEY ARE STILL CONDUCTING THE SURVEYS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY.

ONE TEAM IS SURVEYING DAMAGE IN MADISON AND MACOUPIN COUNTIES IN
ILLINOIS. SO FAR THEY HAVE FOUND TORNADO DAMAGE AT A LANDFILL IN
ROXANNA THAT HAS BEEN RATED AS A LOW END EF-3 WITH ESTIMATED WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 140 MPH. THEY HAVE ALSO FOUND STRAIGHT LINE WIND
DAMAGE IN THE CITY OF EDWARDSVILLE. THIS SURVEY TEAM WILL CONTINUE
TO ASSESS DAMAGE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING IN GILLESPIE.

A SECOND TEAM IS SURVEYING DAMAGE IN NORTH ST. LOUIS COUNTY. THIS
TEAM HAS FOUND TORNADO DAMAGE RATED AS EF-2 WITH ESTIMATED WIND
SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 130 MPH. THIS TORNADO PATH IS ALONG A LINE FROM
THE MISSOURI RIVER JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN EARTH CITY TO
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE AIRPORT IN HAZELWOOD.

THE THIRD TEAM IS SURVEYING DAMAGE IN ST. CHARLES COUNTY. THIS
TEAM HAS FOUND TORNADO DAMAGE RATED AS EF-3 WITH ESTIMATED WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 150 MPH. THIS PATH IS ALONG A LINE FROM WELDON
SPRING HEIGHTS TO HARVESTER. THIS TEAM WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS
DAMAGE FURTHER NORTHEAST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER.

THIS IS PRELIMINARY INFORMATION AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING
FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM DATA.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX. MORE INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE AT
A LATER DATE WHEN SURVEYS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES
INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH

$$

BRITT

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Look in the 70's


Thanks for the response!

I always use the SFWMD site for plots. What is posted is what they had up there yesterday. Why wont they tag it 90L?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11322
Quoting sar2401:

BWWAHAHA....the "Dominator". I guess Mr. Timmer found out yesterday what's really dominant in the world of weather...and it ain't his car.
I'm just saying he got instruments on top of his "Dominator" that could have live-saving datas that the scientists can use to study tornadoes and information from these studies could one day save our lives in not too far future. Just saying...
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Quoting stormchaser19:
CMC 12z





Perhaps another Gabrielle?

On September 5, a weak low- to mid-level trough was nearly stationary a short distance off the southeastern coastline of the United States. It remained stationary for several days, before developing a low-level circulation over Florida by September 9. The system moved into the Gulf of Mexico,[1] and by September 11, the low and its associated convection were well-organized enough for the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to classify it as Tropical Depression Eight.[2] By that time, the system was located about 170 mi (270 km) west-northwest of Key West, Florida.[1] Located in an environment of weak steering currents, the depression drifted to the west-southwest after forming. Northerly wind shear and the presence of a nearby upper-level low initially prevented further organization,[2] leaving the center of the depression poorly–defined with minimal convection.[3] The depression gradually became better organized while it slowly executed a small counter-clockwise loop.[1] Early on September 12, the system developed increased banding features over the eastern half of its circulation.[4] By early on September 13, the upper level outflow over the depression became much more conducive for intensification, although the circulation remained broad and weak.[5] Shortly thereafter, deep convection developed and persisted near the center,[6] and at 1200 UTC on September 13, the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Gabrielle while located about 200 miles (320 km) southwest of Venice, Florida.[1]
Under the influence of a mid-level trough, Gabrielle accelerated northeastward and quickly intensified, despite increasing amounts of westerly wind shear.[1] Its center reformed several times under the deep convection, and on September 14 Gabrielle made landfall near Venice with winds of 70 mph (110 km/h). At the time, Hurricane Hunters reported gusts to hurricane force,[7][8] and the National Hurricane Center indicated the possibility that Gabrielle made landfall as a hurricane.[1] Land interaction and vertical wind shear quickly weakened Gabrielle over land; its convection decreased markedly with the strongest remaining convection remaining well to the northeast of the center.[9] The storm reached the Atlantic Ocean with winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) about 18 hours after it made landfall;[1] by that time, one forecaster at the National Hurricane Center remarked that the storm resembled an occluded frontal low, with a large circulation devoid of convection in a non-symmetric wind field.[10] Another forecaster likened the storm to a subtropical cyclone, due to dry air continuing to limit organization.

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1965. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Wow, Reed's car really lose his hood...

‏@reedtimmerTVN 8h
nothing but a flesh wind on the Dominator.. @jimcantore @stormpics @kfor @emilyrsutton pic.twitter.com/qUUyhQbk1Z

BWWAHAHA....the "Dominator". I guess Mr. Timmer found out yesterday what's really dominant in the world of weather...and it ain't his car.
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I know, it's the NAM after all.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
1963. sar2401
Quoting islander101010:
vis loop 90l it seems as if there is a wk circulation spinning

LOL. Only the CMC models exceed your optimism.
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Wow, Reed's car really lose his hood...

‏@reedtimmerTVN 8h
nothing but a flesh wind on the Dominator.. @jimcantore @stormpics @kfor @emilyrsutton pic.twitter.com/qUUyhQbk1Z
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1961. JNTenne

Quoting Levi32:


I wasn't going to refuse my first real chase. I came down here thinking I wouldn't actually chase storms, but then when I saw supercell convection going up for the first time in my life, the first thing I wanted to do was go see it. The entire REU student group went out, and all with experienced people. I wasn't going to be the only one to stay behind.
Why didn't you just rent a hot air bolloon? The view would have been much better!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1960. sar2401
Quoting Levi32:


The entire NWS Norman office told me I should go, so there :)

Levi, I probably would have done the same at your age. As I wrote earlier, I really hope someone in your group is a ham radio operator and had a radio with him. When cell phones and air cards don't work, amateur radio still will. I know some NWS forecasters have gotten their ham tickets to they can be directly part of the Skywarn nets. If nothing else, have a scanner and program in the local Skywarn net frequencies so you can listen. I know from personal experience that Skywarn hams will often be the first to report a tornado actually on the ground, and will give a pretty good estimate of speed and direction. One more thing to have in your tool kit that might save your life.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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