Tornadoes, Floods, and Severe Thunderstorms Continue in the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on May 31, 2013

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It was yet another active day for tornadoes, flooding, and severe thunderstorms in the Midwest on Thursday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 16 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Illinois. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas for the most part, but seven people were injured in Arkansas in two separate tornadoes, and two other people were hurt by lightning. The severe weather forced organizers of the outdoor Wakarusa Music Festival north of Ozark, Arkansas to delay the start of the festival. The band "Widespread Panic" was one of the groups scheduled to perform, leading to an Associated Press headline from yesterday titled, "Nine hurt in Arkansas storm; Widespread Panic delayed." Heavy rains from this week's thunderstorms have pushed the Mississippi River to major flood stage at most places from Burlington Iowa to Quincy Illinois, and the river is expected to crest near major flood stage at St. Louis early next week. In Iowa, the Cedar River at Cedar Falls, the Iowa River at Marengo, and the Skunk River near Sigourney and at Augusta are also in major flood. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Friday) over much of Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Joplin, Missouri, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 1. Lightning strike from a severe thunderstorm near Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 30, 2013, as photographed by KFOR-TV. (AP Photo/KFOR-TV)


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Joplin, Missouri. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

A mostly quiet year for violent tornadoes
After a very quiet March, April, and first half of May, the U.S. tornado season has become very active during the last half of May, and is beginning to catch up to normal. TWC's tornado expert Dr. Greg Forbes has a preliminary count of 181 tornadoes for the month of May, through May 29, which is 35% below the 10-year average of 279 through May 29th. May 2012 had only 121 tornadoes. The 2013 tornado tally has risen significantly in the last half of May, due to 7 of the last 15 days having above-average numbers of tornadoes. Fortunately, we are well below-average for strong and violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes so far in 2013. According to NOAA, the U.S. has averaged 43 EF-3 or stronger tornadoes per year during the period 1954 - 2012. With tornado season nearly half over, only twelve EF-3 and EF-4 tornadoes have been recorded so far in 2013. An average year should have had at least twenty of these tornadoes by this point in the year. Here are the twelve EF-3 and stronger tornadoes so far in 2013, as detailed in Wikipedia's excellent Tornadoes of 2013 page:

EF-5, May 20, Moore, Oklahoma. 24 deaths, 377 injuries, $2 billion in damage.
EF-4, May 28, Ottawa County, Kansas. Intensity based on mobile Doppler radar data. See the Capital Weather Gang's description of this tornado.
EF-4, May 19, Shawnee, Oklahoma. 2 deaths, 6 injuries.
EF-4, May 15, Granbury, TX. 6 deaths, 24+ injuries.
EF-4, May 18, Rozel, Kansas.
EF-4, February 10, Hattiesburg, MS. 0 deaths, 82 injuries.
EF-3, Corning, KS, May 28.
EF-3, May 27, Lebanon - Esbon, KS. 1 injured. Wind gust of 175 mph measured by TIV2 intercept vehicle.
EF-3, May 15, Cleburne, TX. No deaths or injuries.
EF-3, January 30, Adairsville, GA. 1 death, 17 injuries, 363 buildings damaged or destroyed.
EF-3, April 11, Kemper County, AL. 1 death, 9 injuries.
EF-3, May 19, Luther - Carney, Oklahoma.


Figure 3. The annual number of EF-3 and stronger tornadoes, 1954 - 2012. The greatest number of these dangerous tornadoes was 131 in 1974, the year of the notorious "Super Outbreak." The minimum was just 15, set in 1987. The average is 43 per year. Image credit: NOAA.


Video 1. Impressive 2-minute timelapse of the Bennington, Kansas wedge tornado of May 28, 2013, as filmed by the Aussie Storm Chasers. As discussed in an excellent blog post by Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang, the violent EF-4 tornado stood still for nearly an hour, and had wind gusts as high as 264 mph at an altitude of 300 feet measured by Doppler on Wheels.

Remains of Hurricane Barbara bringing heavy rains to Mexico
Hurricane Barbara died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. While there is no low level circulation apparent on satellite loops this Friday morning, there is a bit of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and the remains of Barbara are kicking up some heavy thunderstorm activity over the southernmost Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas of Mexico. Wind shear is a high 20 knots in the region, and the area of disturbed weather is quite small, so I don't expect any development to occur over the next few days. Wind shear is predicted to remain high over the Gulf of Mexico for the next six days, and none of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during that period. Late next week, wind shear is predicted to drop, and there is a better chance for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. Both the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that a strong tropical disturbance with heavy rains may affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and the Southwest Florida by Friday next week.


Figure 4. Remains of Hurricane Barbara in the southernmost Gulf of Mexico as seen by MODIS at 12:05 pm EDT Thursday, May 30, 2013. Barbara had just been declared dead one hour prior to this photo. Image credit: NASA.

Saturday, June 1, is the first day of hurricane season, and I'll post a quick look at what we might expect to see in June.

Jeff Masters

More Wild Weather 4 (Nikongranny)
More Wild Weather 4
Bennington, Ks Tornado (weatherfanatic2010)
This was one of the easiest chase days ever. Left Salina, Ks and thought about going after the storms to the NW but turned back after about 15 miles when the storm that spawned this tornado went up. Me and my group setup just west of Bennington about 20 minutes before this tornado touched down, catching a brief rope tornado about 10 minutes before this tornado touched down. It sat almost stationary for about 45 and we watched it's entire life cycle without having to move.
Bennington, Ks Tornado
LP Supercell (adkinsadam1)
LP Supercell
Lightning (tjlpowell)
Lightning

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1210. Patrap

956
WFUS54 KOUN 010110
TOROUN
OKC027-109-125-010200-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0067.130601T0110Z-130601T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
810 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 804 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES WAS LOCATED NEAR STELLA. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AGAIN AT
ANY TIME. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS DANGEROUS STORM MOVING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL
SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHAWNEE...STELLA...TECUMSEH...MCLOUD...PINK...JOHN SON...
BROOKSVILLE...DALE...BETHEL ACRES AND AYDELOTTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.

DO NOT STOP UNDER BRIDGES OR HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. THEY WILL NOT
PROTECT YOU FROM A TORNADO.


LAT...LON 3516 9688 3528 9731 3546 9728 3545 9683
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 276DEG 22KT 3537 9719



AUSTIN
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
1209. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I don't even know with this OKC cell anymore.


Its like a hybrid squall line with embedded circulations
Member Since: May 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
1207. Patrap
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
808 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHERN ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 806 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. CHARLES...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. MOBILE HOMES WILL
BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES
AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE.
FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT
TREES TO BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CREVE COEUR...BRIDGETON...OLIVETTE...ST. ANN...OVERLAND...LAMBERT
FIELD...WOODSON TERRACE...UNIVERSITY CITY...ST. JOHN...HAZELWOOD...
BEL-RIDGE...BERKELEY...KINLOCH...NORMANDY...COOL VALLEY...
HILLSDALE...FLORISSANT...NORTHWOODS...FERGUSON AND DELLWOOD.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES CONFLUENCE STATE PARK...FIRST MISSOURI STATE
CAPITOL HISTORIC SITE AND HORSESHOE LAKE STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3900 8998 3872 8990 3863 9053 3884 9056
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 253DEG 41KT 3876 9050

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...<.75IN



GLASS
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
1206. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
St. Louis storm is by far the most intense and dangerous right now.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
Quoting daddyjames:


A link for that?


TWC's Forbes told Bettes to get out of the area and stay away from OKC, they are in no position to do any more chasing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1203. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
* AT 806 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO

WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. CHARLES...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. MOBILE HOMES WILL

BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES

AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE.

FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT

TREES TO BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32813
Quoting weathergeek5:
CONFIRMED: Mike Jenkins, TWC Sr. Producer/Director, confirms The Great Tornado Hunt has been terminated.


It appears that the Hunt found him
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1200. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
HPC wow FL!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32813
Quoting weathergeek5:
CONFIRMED: Mike Jenkins, TWC Sr. Producer/Director, confirms The Great Tornado Hunt has been terminated.


A link for that?
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Debris ball on radar with that one.

Looks like it formed in front of that line very near the radar site in Weldon Spring. It has since increased in intensity and briefly had a legacy debris signature.
It's now moving into a very populated suburban area west of St Louis, fairly close to where the EF4 tracked within the last couple of years.

Very clear tornado signature on radar, just over 100knots of peak-to-peak shear, but separated by 3-4 pixels.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3325
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
Dont know if you classify this as a single tornado or a series of tornados; but i wouldnt be suprised if this turns out to be more costly than Joplin
I would be utterly shocked if it was. There may have been an EF5 a few hours ago but that was over a somewhat rural area.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
Watching KFOR. It looks Oklahoma City got hit pretty hard. 40,000 metro without power. Flash Flooding, several over turned cars and tractor trailers over turned.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like (for the moment) things have calmed down a bit. latest advisory is that tornados may occur in the Norman area, but would not be strong/last so long.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
I don't even know with this OKC cell anymore.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
CONFIRMED: Mike Jenkins, TWC Sr. Producer/Director, confirms The Great Tornado Hunt has been terminated.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dont know if you classify this as a single tornado or a series of tornados; but i wouldnt be suprised if this turns out to be more costly than Joplin
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bad tornado heading for/north of St. Louis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1187. whitewabit (Mod)
NWS in St Louis has taken shelter because of a tornado warned storm ..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tornado being reported in south Moore.

NWS St. Louis has taken cover because of a confirmed tornado moving east towards the city.

Storm headed straight for Joplin is producing a funnel cloud.
Debris ball on radar with that one.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
759 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 757 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF DITTMER...AND MOVING EAST
AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CEDAR HILL...BYRNES MILL...HIGH RIDGE...MURPHY...ANTONIA...
BARNHART...ARNOLD...OAKVILLE...MEHLVILLE...DITTMER ...HOUSE
SPRINGS...VALMEYER...FOUNTAIN...SCOTSDALE...PARKDA LE...OTTO AND
KIMMSWICK.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1184. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Tornado being reported in south Moore.

NWS St. Louis has taken cover because of a confirmed tornado moving east towards the city.

Storm headed straight for Joplin is producing a funnel cloud.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32813
1182. Patrap

756
WFUS54 KOUN 010102
TOROUN
OKC027-087-010130-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0066.130601T0102Z-130601T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
802 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
CENTRAL CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 755 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NORMAN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

ANY TORNADO WOULD NOT BE STRONG AND WOULD BE INTERMITTENT.

STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS UP TO 80 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORMAN...MOORE...NOBLE...SLAUGHTERVILLE...GOLDSBY AND LAKE
THUNDERBIRD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.


LAT...LON 3504 9736 3522 9761 3536 9748 3521 9718
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 305DEG 24KT 3526 9747
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Quoting Chicklit:
Channel 9 says one of the circulations just went over I35
Link news9


Oh Gosh!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WOW!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
1179. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Channel 9 says one of the circulations just went over I35
Link news9
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
1177. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
Being stuck in traffic with this bearing down on you would be very ominous.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's 4 tornados I think
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1174. Patrap
Moore just went offline with power outage.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
My God. Work a couple hours tmrw for OKC Relief.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One hope that i have is that with the Moore tornado probablly tresh in thr minds of the people around there; they probably wont doble think and heed the warnings to seek shelter
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is this cell being forreal right now?

I think its more than 1.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
1170. Patrap
Oklahoma City
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
1169. Patrap
Oklahoma City Radar

Vertically Integrated Liquid ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Is this cell being forreal right now?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32813
Quoting nervouspete:
Oh God. I've just got back the pub here in Wales. Got News9 running, KFOR, and reading your comments...

Are these Moore sized tornadoes? Because from what I'm hearing the track covers an even larger path of built-up area than the earlier disaster. And the things that are being said on this thread are chilling. Stormchasers hit?

I can't work out what's going on. This is the first tornado I've been following that's truly rain-wrapped and dark. This is scary.


Yes, a possible EF-5 monster near El Reno earlier, and since then, just a whole slew of constantly-forming and re-forming and lifting and shifting tornadoes and funnels all over OKC metro—several circulations at any given time. Very high winds as well.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I might be wrong but it seems to be splitting into two at the moment. However, im not sure yet.
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Circulation crossing Tinker AFB.
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1164. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Funnel cloud/possible tornado currently crossing directly over Tinker Airforce Base.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Quoting 1900hurricane:
HInd mesocyclone would be my bet for the one that becomes the storm's dominant mesocyclone. At this point, I really don't know though.

I believe the statistics suggest that being in your vehicle is the least safe location. Ditching a sturdy structure (even one without a basement) for a vehicle likely increased the chances of being killed by the tornado substantially.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3325
1161. Patrap
Tornado is INCREASING in intensity near the GM plant
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Rain here from 4PM to now!Up to 1.21 and coming down!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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