Tornadoes, Floods, and Severe Thunderstorms Continue in the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on May 31, 2013

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It was yet another active day for tornadoes, flooding, and severe thunderstorms in the Midwest on Thursday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 16 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Illinois. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas for the most part, but seven people were injured in Arkansas in two separate tornadoes, and two other people were hurt by lightning. The severe weather forced organizers of the outdoor Wakarusa Music Festival north of Ozark, Arkansas to delay the start of the festival. The band "Widespread Panic" was one of the groups scheduled to perform, leading to an Associated Press headline from yesterday titled, "Nine hurt in Arkansas storm; Widespread Panic delayed." Heavy rains from this week's thunderstorms have pushed the Mississippi River to major flood stage at most places from Burlington Iowa to Quincy Illinois, and the river is expected to crest near major flood stage at St. Louis early next week. In Iowa, the Cedar River at Cedar Falls, the Iowa River at Marengo, and the Skunk River near Sigourney and at Augusta are also in major flood. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Friday) over much of Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Joplin, Missouri, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 1. Lightning strike from a severe thunderstorm near Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 30, 2013, as photographed by KFOR-TV. (AP Photo/KFOR-TV)


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma and Southwest Missouri, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Joplin, Missouri. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

A mostly quiet year for violent tornadoes
After a very quiet March, April, and first half of May, the U.S. tornado season has become very active during the last half of May, and is beginning to catch up to normal. TWC's tornado expert Dr. Greg Forbes has a preliminary count of 181 tornadoes for the month of May, through May 29, which is 35% below the 10-year average of 279 through May 29th. May 2012 had only 121 tornadoes. The 2013 tornado tally has risen significantly in the last half of May, due to 7 of the last 15 days having above-average numbers of tornadoes. Fortunately, we are well below-average for strong and violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes so far in 2013. According to NOAA, the U.S. has averaged 43 EF-3 or stronger tornadoes per year during the period 1954 - 2012. With tornado season nearly half over, only twelve EF-3 and EF-4 tornadoes have been recorded so far in 2013. An average year should have had at least twenty of these tornadoes by this point in the year. Here are the twelve EF-3 and stronger tornadoes so far in 2013, as detailed in Wikipedia's excellent Tornadoes of 2013 page:

EF-5, May 20, Moore, Oklahoma. 24 deaths, 377 injuries, $2 billion in damage.
EF-4, May 28, Ottawa County, Kansas. Intensity based on mobile Doppler radar data. See the Capital Weather Gang's description of this tornado.
EF-4, May 19, Shawnee, Oklahoma. 2 deaths, 6 injuries.
EF-4, May 15, Granbury, TX. 6 deaths, 24+ injuries.
EF-4, May 18, Rozel, Kansas.
EF-4, February 10, Hattiesburg, MS. 0 deaths, 82 injuries.
EF-3, Corning, KS, May 28.
EF-3, May 27, Lebanon - Esbon, KS. 1 injured. Wind gust of 175 mph measured by TIV2 intercept vehicle.
EF-3, May 15, Cleburne, TX. No deaths or injuries.
EF-3, January 30, Adairsville, GA. 1 death, 17 injuries, 363 buildings damaged or destroyed.
EF-3, April 11, Kemper County, AL. 1 death, 9 injuries.
EF-3, May 19, Luther - Carney, Oklahoma.


Figure 3. The annual number of EF-3 and stronger tornadoes, 1954 - 2012. The greatest number of these dangerous tornadoes was 131 in 1974, the year of the notorious "Super Outbreak." The minimum was just 15, set in 1987. The average is 43 per year. Image credit: NOAA.


Video 1. Impressive 2-minute timelapse of the Bennington, Kansas wedge tornado of May 28, 2013, as filmed by the Aussie Storm Chasers. As discussed in an excellent blog post by Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang, the violent EF-4 tornado stood still for nearly an hour, and had wind gusts as high as 264 mph at an altitude of 300 feet measured by Doppler on Wheels.

Remains of Hurricane Barbara bringing heavy rains to Mexico
Hurricane Barbara died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. While there is no low level circulation apparent on satellite loops this Friday morning, there is a bit of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and the remains of Barbara are kicking up some heavy thunderstorm activity over the southernmost Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas of Mexico. Wind shear is a high 20 knots in the region, and the area of disturbed weather is quite small, so I don't expect any development to occur over the next few days. Wind shear is predicted to remain high over the Gulf of Mexico for the next six days, and none of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during that period. Late next week, wind shear is predicted to drop, and there is a better chance for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. Both the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that a strong tropical disturbance with heavy rains may affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and the Southwest Florida by Friday next week.


Figure 4. Remains of Hurricane Barbara in the southernmost Gulf of Mexico as seen by MODIS at 12:05 pm EDT Thursday, May 30, 2013. Barbara had just been declared dead one hour prior to this photo. Image credit: NASA.

Saturday, June 1, is the first day of hurricane season, and I'll post a quick look at what we might expect to see in June.

Jeff Masters

More Wild Weather 4 (Nikongranny)
More Wild Weather 4
Bennington, Ks Tornado (weatherfanatic2010)
This was one of the easiest chase days ever. Left Salina, Ks and thought about going after the storms to the NW but turned back after about 15 miles when the storm that spawned this tornado went up. Me and my group setup just west of Bennington about 20 minutes before this tornado touched down, catching a brief rope tornado about 10 minutes before this tornado touched down. It sat almost stationary for about 45 and we watched it's entire life cycle without having to move.
Bennington, Ks Tornado
LP Supercell (adkinsadam1)
LP Supercell
Lightning (tjlpowell)
Lightning

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No damage done to Rams Park in Earth City, MO. Rams Park is the HQ and training center of STL Rams.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8074
BTW, we continued with overcast skies and intermittent rain today, at times fierce, over Nassau and much of the Bahamas.

After glimpsing the sun this a. m. I expected to see gradual clearing, but instead I got caught in a torrential downpour on the way to work and the rain continued all day, augmenting and reinforcing flooding in low-lying areas.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
that stormchasingvideo.com that TWC is showing is unreal..they were in the thick of the tornado..all that debris coming at them..


A number of those chasers today (TWC and these guys) are really, really lucky today. We could have been reading about how they were killed.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
One minute too late. Sigh. It's still a great video.
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Quoting ncstorm:
that stormchasingvideo.com that TWC is showing is unreal..they were in the thick of the tornado..all that debris coming at them..
Here you go (warning: mild swearing. Also, unnecessary histrionics)...

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MACON IL-MOULTRIE IL-PIATT IL-SHELBY IL-CHRISTIAN IL-
958 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL CHRISTIAN...
NORTHERN SHELBY...SOUTHWESTERN PIATT...MOULTRIE AND SOUTHERN MACON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 955 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MACON TO
WESTERVELT...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND SMALL HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SULLIVAN...MOUNT ZION...LONG CREEK...FINDLAY...DALTON CITY...
BETHANY...CERRO GORDO...LOVINGTON...ALLENVILLE...HAMMOND...DECATUR
AIRPORT...HERVEY CITY...OAKLEY...EAGLE CREEK STATE PARK...WOLF CREEK
STATE PARK...KIRKSVILLE...LA PLACE...LAKE CITY...CADWELL AND MILMINE.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10478
Quoting Civicane49:
The low off of West Africa has a good vorticity in the 850 mb level:

They could put a yellow circle,maybe an orange circle.
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Quoting ncstorm:


models are predicting up to 20 inches of rain..which is why I say pay attention as Florida might experience flooding as OKC is..cant tell me that you guys will be able to handle that?..no one has soil that good..


20 Inches seems a little high of a figure, don't you think?

And I don't know, Florida does have extremely porous soil, the area I've lived in for a the longest time has never had more than minor flooding even during Fay in 2008.
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Quoting ncstorm:


a baseball game? today? on all days?
There's Women's College World Series going on in Oklahoma City. That's college softball championship for those that don't understand.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8074
1401. ncstorm
Quoting daddyjames:


many people possibly are trying to get home, there is flash flooding, and power is out. Also there was a scheduled baseball game (?) in downtown OKC, and a number of people were trapped there.


a baseball game? today? on all days?
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Quoting Civicane49:
Anybody else noticing the feature crossing the St Lawrence into the Maritime Canadian provinces? Looks fairly potent...
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The low off of West Africa has a good vorticity in the 850 mb level:

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Quoting ncstorm:
TWC is showing a live stream of an intersection that is without lights in OKC..SO MANY cars out..why are these people not hunkered down?


many people possibly are trying to get home, there is flash flooding, and power is out. Also there was a scheduled baseball game (?) in downtown OKC, and a number of people were trapped there.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
1397. ncstorm
that stormchasingvideo.com that TWC is showing is unreal..they were in the thick of the tornado..all that debris coming at them..
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Meanwhile in Africa
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Today was a very weird severe weather day. I am not envious of today's chasers in the least.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
1394. ncstorm
TWC is showing a live stream of an intersection that is without lights in OKC..SO MANY cars out..why are these people not hunkered down?
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1393. docrod
Quoting pottery:
Astrometeor, post 1382.

Looks like a long night there.
Hope that there are no more Bad Events.

I'm out.
Stay safe, all.


Nite pottery
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Something
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1391. pottery
Astrometeor, post 1382.

Looks like a long night there.
Hope that there are no more Bad Events.

I'm out.
Stay safe, all.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Very interesting feature.
Lets take a poll to kickoff the hurricane season!
When will we see our first named storm?
(A) First week of June.
(B) Second week of June.

(C) Third week of June.
(D) Fourth week of June.
(E) After June.

Any of you guys think we start off the season with a yellow circle somewhere?
Yes.
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1389. ncstorm
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


8 Inches of Florida will not cause massive or moderate flooding. ponding and minor flooding may occur, and some flooding in poor drainage areas.

However, you need to understand that Florida's soil can handle heavy amounts of rain fast.


models are predicting up to 20 inches of rain..which is why I say pay attention as Florida might experience flooding as OKC is..cant tell me that you guys will be able to handle that?..no one has soil that good..
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Quoting FIUStormChaser:


8 Inches of Florida will not cause massive or moderate flooding. ponding and minor flooding may occur, and some flooding in poor drainage areas.

However, you need to understand that Florida's soil can handle heavy amounts of rain fast.
The difference between limestone and clay?
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Quoting pottery:

Dry air/SAL north and N/W of it.
Will be interesting to see what happens over 48 hrs there.

Very interesting feature.
Lets take a poll to kickoff the hurricane season!
When will we see our first named storm?
(A) First week of June.
(B) Second week of June.

(C) Third week of June.
(D) Fourth week of June.
(E) After June.

Any of you guys think we start off the season with a yellow circle somewhere?
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting ncstorm:
Flooding in OKC..via 5 State Weather..over 8 inches of rain..Florida, pay attention..you might be next..





8 Inches of Florida will not cause massive or moderate flooding. ponding and minor flooding may occur, and some flooding in poor drainage areas.

However, you need to understand that Florida's soil can handle heavy amounts of rain fast.
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Today was interesting to say the least. The cap held most of the afternoon, but when it finally broke extremely high CAPE (5-5.5k j/kg) led to explosive thunderstorm development ahead of the dryline. Cells formed too close to one another and merged into a...glob(?) despite shear vectors perpendicular to the dryline. Convective mass produced a lot of outflow boundaries that cut off trailing circulations.
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1383. RevInFL
Quoting daddyjames:



Eight inches in Florida ain't nothing . . . well, unless it falls in the span of 2 hours. Even then, it does not flood much. Only time I remembering it flooding was after it had dumped 20+ inches of rain in a day or two.


It depends on where you are. We have several low-lying places in my county that don't take much to flood. Even the end of my road will flood to three feet deep just on our normal thunderstorm days.
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SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 266
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
940 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHERN MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 940 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH OF JOPLIN
MISSOURI TO 70 MILES EAST OF MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10478
We may have two to three storms next month,maybe even four.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Flooding in OKC..via 5 State Weather..over 8 inches of rain..Florida, pay attention..you might be next..






Eight inches in Florida ain't nothing . . . well, unless it falls in the span of 2 hours. Even then, it does not flood much. Only time I remembering it flooding was after it had dumped 20+ inches of rain in a day or two.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Quoting pottery:

Yeah, I've been looking at that.
Below 10N and looks kind of grim.....


I hope 2013 drops the '11-'12 years of multiple centers of circs. Those are dreadful to track, mess up the models are just headaches.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, except for that part about fans being trapped under debris at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, I'd say they nailed it. :-)Interesting feature, indeed:

It's a twister!

And probably the part about it being from a local news source. That too.

Also, why does the alt text for your image of the Cape Verde disturbance labeled "It's a twister!"?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
Can someone explain why their is continuous regeneration of the system occurring West of OKC?

Another batch of heavy rain seems to be approaching OKC from the west.
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1376. pottery
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, except for that part about fans being trapped under debris at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, I'd say they nailed it. :-)Interesting feature, indeed:

It's a twister!

Dry air/SAL north and N/W of it.
Will be interesting to see what happens over 48 hrs there.
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1375. ncstorm
Flooding in OKC..via 5 State Weather..over 8 inches of rain..Florida, pay attention..you might be next..



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Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, except for that part about fans being trapped under debris at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, I'd say they nailed it. :-)Interesting feature, indeed:

It's a twister!
Very indeed.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
@channel1atlanta: #BREAKING: Fans trapped under debris at Busch Stadium in St. Louis according to local news sources.

EDIT: Apparently this is false.
Well, except for that part about fans being trapped under debris at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, I'd say they nailed it. :-)
Quoting pottery:

Yeah, I've been looking at that.
Below 10N and looks kind of grim.....
Interesting feature, indeed:

It's a twister!
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1372. pottery
Quoting Skyepony:

There was a good cloudsat of it the other night that was impressive.

Fresh ASCAT..


Pulling in lots of moisture/energy.....
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1371. Skyepony (Mod)
Here is a pretty fresh cloudsat from the convection to the NE side of that blob this part has yet to step off Africa.
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This just came out at the San Juan NWS. May 2013 was the third wettest on record.

.CLIMATE...MAY 2013 WILL END AS THE THIRD WETTEST MAY ON RECORD AT
THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT WITH 14.54 INCHES OF RAIN. THE WETTEST MAY
ON RECORD WAS IN 1936 WHEN 16.88 INCHES OF RAIN WERE RECORDED.

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1369. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting pottery:

Yeah, I've been looking at that.
Below 10N and looks kind of grim.....
I got a bad feeling we are going to see some pretty wild stuff

atmosphere is hyper charged
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55976
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My son just text me, he is visiting in MO, his family has spend most of the evening in the basement, tornado's 20 miles north, their lucky, so far.
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Interesting low off of Africa:

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1365. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting pottery:

Yeah, I've been looking at that.
Below 10N and looks kind of grim.....

There was a good cloudsat of it the other night that was impressive.

Fresh ASCAT..

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 010024 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO DELETE ANY RAINFALL
TOTAL DATA FOR TRINIDAD FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD
ENDING AT 31/1200 UTC...AND TO INCLUDE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION INFORMATION FOR THE
33N70W 12N66W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N42W 9N43W 6N44W.
THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
THE WAVE IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT IS IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
THE WAVE ALSO IS AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF DUST THAT HAS
MOVED OFF AFRICA. MODEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELDS AT THE
315 KELVIN LEVEL ALSO HAVE INDICATED THAT A TROUGH AXIS
THAT IS IN THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BEFORE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND A RIDGE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
15N17W...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
14N18W...TO 9N23W AND 6N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
6N29W TO 7N35W AND 8N40W...TO 8N43W...AND 5N56W IN NORTH
CENTRAL SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF AFRICA FROM 6N ALONG
THE LIBERIA COAST TO 15N IN SENEGAL...FROM 4N TO 9N
BETWEEN 19W AND 23W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N29W.
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W...
AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 19N81W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...
AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 29N
BETWEEN 70W AND 96W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W
UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN CUBA TO THE EAST
OF 79W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 17N IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 32N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND
BETWEEN 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 86W IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...

NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
19N81W CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 27N67W 23N67W...CROSSING OVER PUERTO RICO...
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N66W...TO 12N66W
OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 73W
AND 75W IN PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 32N IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND BETWEEN 60W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 86W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 31/1200 UTC...ARE 1.82 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO...0.66 IN GUADELOUPE...0.94 IN SAINT THOMAS IN
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...0.59 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...
AND 0.19 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH MARKS THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA
FROM 30/1500 UTC. THE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N96W 19N96W
18N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND
IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM THE COAST TO 21N
BETWEEN 94W AND 97W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF INLAND MEXICO
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 97W...INCLUDING THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WESTERN BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THIS AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 34N77W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...TO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...TO 24N95W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE AREA OF THE EASTERNMORE
FOUR STATIONS THAT ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
FAIR SKIES COVER THE AREA OF THE WESTERNMORE FOUR
STATIONS THAT ARE ALSO IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE TEXAS
COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF COASTAL ALABAMA. BROKEN MULTI-
LAYERED CEILINGS COVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER BROOKSVILLE
FLORIDA. BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS
ARE REPORTED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
REPORTED FROM NAPLES TO SARASOTA ON THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE ICAO STATION KHQI...AND
THE ICAO STATION KVBS THAT IS OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT
OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 31/1200 UTC...1.82 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO...0.66 IN GUADELOUPE...0.94 IN SAINT THOMAS
IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...0.59 IN NASSAU IN THE
BAHAMAS...0.19 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA TO 8N81W
IN PANAMA...TO 11N84W IN NORTH CENTRAL COSTA RICA...
BEYOND 13N87W IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST
OF 69W...IN COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF 10N...AND IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO
12N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IS IN PANAMA TO THE WEST OF 81W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
TO THE NORTH OF 10N...WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND AT LEAST
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF HONDURAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W.
EXPECT EASTERLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS
OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 17N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 83W.

HISPANIOLA...

NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
19N81W CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 27N67W 23N67W...CROSSING OVER PUERTO RICO...
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N66W...TO 12N66W
OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND NOW.

THE 700 MB GFS...THE 500 MB GFS...AND THE 250 MB
FORECASTS SHOW THAT A RIDGE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N61W TO 34N77W...THAT IS JUST
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 34N77W
INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO
24N95W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N55W 29N57W 27N59W.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 31N43W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
34N33W TO 29N40W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 26N TO 29N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.
EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 43W AND 51W.
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF LINE FROM 16N61W TO 15N45W TO
20N35W EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEA
HEIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 11N58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1363. Skyepony (Mod)
0855 PM TSTM WND GST NEWCASTLE 35.25N 97.60W
05/31/2013 E60 MPH MCCLAIN OK NWS EMPLOYEE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1362. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
big picture storms continue the march east across cen conus tropical rains moving into fla
interesting dev off Africa


Yeah, I've been looking at that.
Below 10N and looks kind of grim.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1361. Skyepony (Mod)
0910 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NNW SHAWNEE 35.38N 96.94W
05/31/2013 M62 MPH POTTAWATOMIE OK MESONET
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Atlantic hurricane season has started so happy tracking but hopefully the big ones stay away from any land. First TWO at 2 AM EDT.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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