Hurricane Barbara Hits Mexico; Severe Weather Outbreak Continues in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2013

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The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Barbara is still alive as a tropical depression at the edge of the Atlantic's Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain new life as an Atlantic tropical cyclone later today. Barbara made landfall near 4 pm EDT (1 pm PDT) May 29, 2013, on Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec coast, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. The storm killed two people, and brought heavy rains of 16.02" (407mm) to Arriaga in the state of Chiapas in an 18-hour period. Barbara remains a serious rainfall threat today. The storm intensified remarkably rapidly, becoming a hurricane just 21 hours after it became a tropical depression. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one other Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever made landfall in May--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. Barbara is just the 2nd hurricane ever to make landfall in the Bay of Tehuantepec (the other: Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997.) Barbara's formation date of May 28 was the 2nd earliest appearance of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd named storm of the year; the record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21, 2012 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The average date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd storm is June 25. Barbara's landfall location was the most easterly on record for an East Pacific hurricane. Records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949, but aren't really reliable until 1966.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Barbara taken at 4:30 pm EDT on May 29, 2013. At the time, Barbara was making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Barbara survived its overnight crossing of Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec with its circulation intact, but lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorm activity. This morning, the center of Barbara was located just inland from the southernmost waters of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Barbara was drifting northwest, towards open water, at 3 mph. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Barbara, the storm has the potential to be classified as an Atlantic tropical depression later today if its center emerges over water. However, latest satellite loops have shown a steady reduction in the storm's heavy thunderstorms this morning, and Barbara may lose its circulation before it has time take advantage of the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters. Since Barbara is a small storm, the moderate wind shear may be too great for it to withstand. None of the reliable computer models predict that Barbara will survive into Friday. If Barbara is able to re-intensify to a tropical storm, it would keep the name Barbara, becoming the first Atlantic storm ever to have an Eastern Pacific name. Formerly, Eastern Pacific storms crossing into the Atlantic would be given a new name, but a recent NHC policy change allows storms to keep their names when they cross from one ocean basin to another. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then its remnants regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. If you want to discuss this year's hurricane season via Twitter, AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat today (Thursday) at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat; the National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat.

Double ocean tropical cyclones: a rare breed
According to the Hurricane FAQ, since 1923 there have been four East Pacific tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the Atlantic Ocean, becoming tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean:

Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Alma (May 2008) became a remnant low in the Atlantic, where it merged with another tropical wave which generated Atlantic Tropical Storm Arthur. Arthur hit Belize as a tropical storm, killing nine and doing $78 million in damage.

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison in June 1989. Allison hit Texas as a tropical storm, and heavy rains from Allison--up to 30" in some regions of Texas and Louisiana--triggered floods that killed eleven people and did $1 billion in damage. (A later incarnation of Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 also hit Texas, and caused such extensive flooding that its name was retired.)

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and hit Freeport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane, killing two people.

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (October 1923) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #6) and made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Louisiana.

There have been eight Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the East Pacific Ocean, and were then tropical storms in that ocean.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over much of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest brings more tornadoes and flooding
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Wednesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 23 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas, and no injuries and only minor damage was reported. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Thursday) over much of Oklahoma, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 3. Five-day rainfall forecast for the period ending at 7am EDT Tuesday, June 4, calls for very heavy rains of 3 - 5" over much of Missouri. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

As discussed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, Some Phenomenal Rainfalls the Past Week in the U.S., the country has seen a lot of very heavy rainfall over the past week that has caused serious flooding. Of particular concern is Iowa, where Governor Terry Branstad issued a disaster proclamation on Tuesday for 13 Iowa counties, due to recent storms and flooding.The Iowa State Climatologist, Harry Hillaker, announced on May 29th that this has been the wettest spring (March-May) on record for the state since records began 141 years ago. A state average of 16.4” has been preliminarily reported. The previous wettest spring was 15.5” way back in 1892. He warned that “Iowa is at a tipping point for a major flood event”. Rains of 1 - 2" are expected over Eastern Iowa the remainder of the this week, which will keep most rivers above flood stage. Another round of rains of 1 - 2" are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, when the next storm system rolls through. That system also has the potential to bring a severe weather outbreak to the Midwest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting tropicfreak:


Exactly. VA Tech takes a 3 or higher in most classes. And I certainly agree to an extent, but the more classes you can get out of, the more you can stay focused on your major and not having to worry about the extra classes that don't have much to do with my major.

My main concern is that if I drop Government for physics, colleges would see that as settling for something easier if you move down from AP to Honors (I'm taking AP US History this year and took AP World last year). Trying to consider that. But at the same token, if they know that I'm aspiring to become a meteorologist don't they take that into consideration the motivation and my passion towards it, even if I drop AP Government (little to do with meteorology) for AP Physics (much to do with meteorology).

I don't know if what I said made sense, so bear with me!
Just telling you AP Physics do not have much meteorology. It's a HARD class, especially magnetism/electricity, waves, and nuclear/modern physics.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7449
Quoting Astrometeor:


Depends on the university, AP is not guaranteed to get you out of a class. Also, on English. Not pointless. Being a good writer is essential, no matter what career you end up doing as an adult.



Physics was fun even though I barely passed the class. @Tropicfreak, I would consider Physics much harder than Gov, just because of the high amount of math and applied logic involved. On top of that, Physics covers more than just atmosphere, you get electricity, Newtonian mechanics, and atomic and nuclear physics. Tough stuff.
But fun.

Ironically, entry level Calculus is the only college math course I ever aced... after that I quit while I was ahead... lol...

I was fortunate to get a good teacher and to be in a class of tech majors [applied science / engineering] but calculus IS accessible in the right context. If you are interested in pursuing a college degree in wx, learn to love it.
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Quoting Astrometeor:


Depends on the university, AP is not guaranteed to get you out of a class. Also, on English. Not pointless. Being a good writer is essential, no matter what career you end up doing as an adult.



Physics was fun even though I barely passed the class. @Tropicfreak, I would consider Physics much harder than Gov, just because of the high amount of math and applied logic involved. On top of that, Physics covers more than just atmosphere, you get electricity, Newtonian mechanics, and atomic and nuclear physics. Tough stuff.


Exactly. VA Tech takes a 3 or higher in most classes. And I certainly agree to an extent, but the more classes you can get out of, the more you can stay focused on your major and not having to worry about the extra classes that don't have much to do with my major.

My main concern is that if I drop Government for physics, colleges would see that as settling for something easier if you move down from AP to Honors (I'm taking AP US History this year and took AP World last year). Trying to consider that. But at the same token, if they know that I'm aspiring to become a meteorologist don't they take that into consideration the motivation and my passion towards it, even if I drop AP Government (little to do with meteorology) for AP Physics (much to do with meteorology).

I don't know if what I said made sense, so bear with me!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening all.

I wrote a new tropical outlook if anyone wishes to read.



Sounds like a darn toot'n good and believable forecast to me Levi!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:

218
WFUS54 KLZK 310113
TORLZK
ARC045-105-119-125-310200-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0045.130531T0113Z-130531T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
813 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
EASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 809 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF WILLIAMS JUNCTION...OR 9 MILES
WEST OF LAKE MAUMELLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
WILLIAMS JUNCTION... TOAD SUCK... LITTLE ITALY...
LAKE CONWAY... WYE MTN... WYE...
NEW DIXIE... FOURCHE... BIGELOW...
ROUND MTN... RATTLESNAKE MTN... NOGAL...
MOYER MTN... LUNDSFORD CORNER... LOLLIE...
KRYER MTN... KENNEY MTN...
JOLLY ROGER LANDING...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 132 AND 134.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3481 9270 3488 9279 3508 9264 3508 9261
3512 9257 3512 9255 3501 9238
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 220DEG 20KT 3489 9270



44


Don't see any chasers in Little Rock. Any video feeds...?
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Barometer bob show is on if anyone wants to partake in the chat.
Link
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23011
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening all.

I wrote a new tropical outlook if anyone wishes to read.

Hey Levi. Any chance you could come on the Barometer Bob show. Would love to hear your thoughts on this years hurricane season.

toll free number (1-866-931-8437) or Skype (barometerbob or 904-257-0234).
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:






Is the fat lady singing?


Babs has experienced a rather harsh day. A night of beauty sleep, cradled in the calm and relaxing BOC,
a good breakfast of DMAX, she may decide to fight another day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening all.

I wrote a new tropical outlook if anyone wishes to read.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
812 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN MAYES COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 811 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ROSE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...LEACH...
OAKS...TWIN OAKS...KANSAS...WEST SILOAM SPRINGS AND COLCORD.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


That last sentence there sounds so much like my AP English teacher (this year).

And heck, if you pass the AP exam, that's some 3-6 college credits (depending on the score) and an extra and pointless class you don't have to take (like English or History)


Depends on the university, AP is not guaranteed to get you out of a class. Also, on English. Not pointless. Being a good writer is essential, no matter what career you end up doing as an adult.

Quoting Bluestorm5:
AP Physics was fun and challenging for me the past 9 months! You should really take that class if you're planning to enter science fiend in college. Also, I've been told by many that college classes are much easier than AP classes so you should take these classes so it'll be easier in college since you'll know what to expect.


Physics was fun even though I barely passed the class. @Tropicfreak, I would consider Physics much harder than Gov, just because of the high amount of math and applied logic involved. On top of that, Physics covers more than just atmosphere, you get electricity, Newtonian mechanics, and atomic and nuclear physics. Tough stuff.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


That last sentence there sounds so much like my AP English teacher (this year).

And heck, if you pass the AP exam, that's some 3-6 college credits (depending on the score) and an extra and pointless class you don't have to take (like English or History)
Yeah, I passed one AP exam for couple of credits (APUSH), but I failed the other 3 AP exams (still waiting for AP Physics result).
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7449
Quoting AussieStorm:
Once again. Sorry for stuffing up the blog for a few minutes. No harm was intended.
Mostly is not intended. Also mostly to be expected as we get into high gear in a couple days.

I gotta say, since moving to Firefox from IE I have had few, if any, of these problems.

I've got Chrome, too, but haven't really used it to browse. Maybe I'll try it later.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
AP Physics was fun and challenging for me the past 9 months! You should really take that class if you're planning to enter science fiend in college. Also, I've been told by many that college classes are much easier than AP classes so you should take these classes so it'll be easier in college since you'll know what to expect.


That last sentence there sounds so much like my AP English teacher (this year).

And heck, if you pass the AP exam, that's some 3-6 college credits (depending on the score) and an extra and pointless class you don't have to take (like English or History)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Junior here, rising senior next year. Taking 5 AP classes including Calculus, this should be fun!

Not.

Still debating on whether I should drop AP Government for AP Physics since I want to venture into the meteorology field and further my studies in meteorology at college, for me hopefully VA Tech, since it's the only school here in the state that offers a met degree!
AP Physics was fun and challenging for me the past 9 months! You should really take that class if you're planning to enter science fiend in college. Also, I've been told by many that college classes are much easier than AP classes so you should take these classes so it'll be easier in college since you'll know what to expect.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7449

218
WFUS54 KLZK 310113
TORLZK
ARC045-105-119-125-310200-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0045.130531T0113Z-130531T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
813 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
EASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 809 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF WILLIAMS JUNCTION...OR 9 MILES
WEST OF LAKE MAUMELLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
WILLIAMS JUNCTION... TOAD SUCK... LITTLE ITALY...
LAKE CONWAY... WYE MTN... WYE...
NEW DIXIE... FOURCHE... BIGELOW...
ROUND MTN... RATTLESNAKE MTN... NOGAL...
MOYER MTN... LUNDSFORD CORNER... LOLLIE...
KRYER MTN... KENNEY MTN...
JOLLY ROGER LANDING...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 132 AND 134.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3481 9270 3488 9279 3508 9264 3508 9261
3512 9257 3512 9255 3501 9238
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 220DEG 20KT 3489 9270



44
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
Quoting Astrometeor:



Professors I have talked to say that calculus is the #1 cause for drop-outs in the meteorology major since many students don't know what to expect. Colleges are combating that with study sessions and more help available to underclassmen.
Yeah, I'm seriously afraid of Calculus and not looking forward to it. However, I know what to expect so I won't get so overwhelmed this time and UNC-A got math labs all over campus if I need serious help. Another problem is I don't remember geometry and algebra very well. I'm sure I'll get my algebra knowledge back since I had an A, but geometry will be harder.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7449
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Thanks for the advice! I didn't have problem with pre-calculus my junior year, but I ran into major trouble with AP Calculus. I think the fall semester of senior year was the most challenging part in 13 years of education and I struggled so badly in AP Calculus that I basically quit trying in the class. Because half of class failed, my parents told me it's a bad teacher (my classmates agrees) but my confidence still hit rock bottom as I've never failed so badly in life. However, my grade in that class didn't drop any farther and I relaunched my efforts into the class to at least get a passing grade and I passed the class by 1 point. However, I dropped out AP Calculus in spring and didn't take AP exam. I think I'm afraid of Calculus the most in college, but my confidence recovered and I know what to expect now.


Junior here, rising senior next year. Taking 5 AP classes including Calculus for next year, this should be fun!

Not.

Still debating on whether I should drop AP Government for AP Physics since I want to venture into the meteorology field (don't want to stress myself too much) and further my studies in meteorology at college, for me hopefully VA Tech, since it's the only school here in the state that offers a met degree!
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North Little Rock
NEXRAD Radar

Echo Tops ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
803 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN DENT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN PHELPS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 800 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANUTT...BEULAH...EDGAR SPRINGS...LECOMA...LENOX AND SOUTHERN FORT
LEONARD WOOD.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
North Little Rock
NEXRAD Radar

Vertically Integrated Liquid ° Elevation


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476






Is the fat lady singing?
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Thanks for the advice! I didn't have problem with pre-calculus my junior year, but I ran into major trouble with AP Calculus. I think the fall semester of senior year was the most challenging part in 13 years of education and I struggled so badly in AP Calculus that I basically quit trying in the class. Because half of class failed, my parents told me it's a bad teacher (my classmates agrees) but my confidence still hit rock bottom as I've never failed so badly in life. However, my grade in that class didn't drop any farther and I relaunched my efforts into the class to at least get a passing grade and I passed the class by 1 point. However, I dropped out AP Calculus in spring and didn't take AP exam. I think I'm afraid of Calculus the most in college, but my confidence recovered and I know what to expect now.



Professors I have talked to say that calculus is the #1 cause for drop-outs in the meteorology major since many students don't know what to expect. Colleges are combating that with study sessions and more help available to underclassmen.
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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 PM EDT Thursday 30 May 2013
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:30.0 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:78.4°F
Dewpoint:64.8°F
Humidity:63%
Wind:SW 6 mph
Humidex: 90
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52173
It's no small thing to graduate high school. Congratulations and be be proud and take your bows.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Awesome to hear that! Back in high school I had to retake flipping pre-calculus. I had an adviser tell me back then I would never make it through a meteorology major and I don't have what it takes for higher mathematics. Now I have gotten A's in classes like physics and differential equations. I just didn't have the right attitude yet, NEVER let anyone's putdowns lower your thoughts of your ability.

Also always remember to shoot for humility, which isn't thinking less of yourself, just learning to think more of others instead of only self interest, it is a very important trait and a great defense against the junk the holds college students down and throughout adult life.
Thanks for the advice! I didn't have problem with pre-calculus my junior year, but I ran into major trouble with AP Calculus. I think the fall semester of senior year was the most challenging part in 13 years of education and I struggled so badly in AP Calculus that I basically quit trying in the class. Because half of class failed, my parents told me it's a bad teacher (my classmates agrees) but my confidence still hit rock bottom as I've never failed so badly in life. However, my grade in that class didn't drop any farther and I relaunched my efforts into the class to at least get a passing grade and I passed the class by 1 point. However, I dropped out AP Calculus in spring and didn't take AP exam. I think I'm afraid of Calculus the most in college, but my confidence recovered and I know what to expect now.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7449
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 3262
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Dual pol indicates a lot of debris in the air with this strong tornado in Arkansas.

Nice couplet and potential debris ball:



Definitively indicative of a tornado and debris being lofted. And I would agree, that one scan definitely looked like a legacy debris signature.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Forbes is convinced there is a large, destructive tornado on the ground.

The areas the circulation are moving through are heavily forested hills/mountains. Because of the forest, it probably would not take as strong of a tornado to produce significant debris. It certainly is possible that there is a strong tornado, but its not as strong of a signature (nor as wide) as some of the other strong tornadoes radar has sampled at this range in recent weeks.

On second thought, the 0044utc scan has a larger circulation when it was just west of Paron, right as the debris signature appeared.
The TS (Tornado Signature... peak-to-peak distance ~0.7 nm/2 pixels) that shows up in that scan, along with the ~100 knots of shear, could suggest a large tornado.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52173

241
WFUS54 KLZK 310056
TORLZK
ARC119-125-310130-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0044.130531T0056Z-130531T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
756 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
WEST CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 754 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKE BALBOA...OR 3 MILES
EAST OF HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE... LAKE NORRELL...
LAKE BALBOA... PARON... LAKE LAGO...
CONGO... BLAND... AVILLA...
DIAMANTE COUNTRY CLUB...
CORONADO GOLF COURSE... BALBOA GOLF COURSE...
SCHOOLHOUSE MTN... RUBICON... JENNINGS MTN...
HORSESHOE MTN... GOOSEPOND MTN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3470 9297 3481 9261 3465 9254 3461 9288
3463 9288 3464 9294
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 254DEG 26KT 3467 9287
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
So I see Arkansas is being hit hardest right now... any damage reports?
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 3262
North Little Rock
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
Quoting Patrap:


Pat, goes to show, different sat shots can be more revealing than others for sure. Right now, RGB is about the only thing showing a heartbeat. And, it's showing a good rhythm still.
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Oklahoma City
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Dual pol indicates a lot of debris in the air with this tornado in Arkansas.

Nice couplet and potential debris ball:



Forbes is convinced there is a large, destructive tornado on the ground.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
So, tonight was a senior awards night at my school, where I recieved honors cord, high honors tassel, NHS cord, and 2 scholarships totaling of $1,000. My final GPA weighted should be at 4.0, but I'll find out when final report card comes out. My class rank was in the 30s out of 280 students. And the best thing? No one expected me to graduate from high school 13 years ago as mentioned in my blog. I don't really want to brag about my honors, but I'm so happy and proud of it that I got to share the news! I will tell you this... getting the cords and tassels make the struggles in high school so worth it, so keep up the hard work to those who are younger than me! You're almost there.


Anyway, what's going on with the weather?


Awesome to hear that! Back in high school I had to retake flipping pre-calculus. I had an adviser tell me back then I would never make it through a meteorology major and I don't have what it takes for higher mathematics. Now I have gotten A's in classes like physics and differential equations. I just didn't have the right attitude yet, NEVER let anyone's putdowns lower your thoughts of your ability.

Also always remember to shoot for humility, which isn't thinking less of yourself, just learning to think more of others instead of only self interest, it is a very important trait and a great defense against the junk the holds college students down and throughout adult life.
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PERRY AR-PULASKI AR-SALINE AR-
752 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL SALINE...
NORTHWESTERN PULASKI AND EAST CENTRAL PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
CDT...

AT 749 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF LAKE WINONA...OR 12 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
WILLIAMS JUNCTION... WYE MTN... WYE...
REFORM... MOYER MTN... COLE MTN...
BRUSHY MTN...
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Quoting Astrometeor:


Congrats Kyle! Going to frame your awards?
And thanks for the motivation booster, one more year of high school.

To answer your question, there is a confirmed tornado on the ground east of Tulsa, TA said something about multi-vortice.
It was basically receiving the honors, high honors, and NHS gear for graduation along with scholarships being announced to the crowd if you got one (I got 2 minor scholarships).
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7449
Dual pol indicates a lot of debris in the air with this strong tornado in Arkansas.

Nice couplet and potential debris ball:


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241

051
WFUS54 KOUN 310052
TOROUN
OKC049-099-310115-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0056.130531T0052Z-130531T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
752 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL MURRAY COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEAST CENTRAL GARVIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 749 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PAULS VALLEY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL
SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WYNNEWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.

DO NOT STOP UNDER BRIDGES OR HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. THEY WILL NOT
PROTECT YOU FROM A TORNADO.

THE TORNADO MAY BE HIDDEN BY RAIN AND VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE. DO NOT
WAIT. TAKE COVER NOW.


LAT...LON 3456 9698 3468 9724 3478 9720 3473 9693
3467 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 289DEG 19KT 3472 9717


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

SVR T-STORM WARNING MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI - KMKX 749 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 748 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING LINCOLN IL - KILX 745 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 745 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 745 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING GAYLORD MI - KAPX 845 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 743 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING LINCOLN IL - KILX 743 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING ST LOUIS MO - KLSX 738 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI - KMKX 735 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 734 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 734 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 732 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 732 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

TORNADO WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 730 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 730 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

TORNADO WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 726 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
Quoting AussieStorm:
An interesting website. Link


Don't worry Aussie, this time you didn't bork up Firefox's display. ;)
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Quoting GetReal:



The little engine that has not given up yet...




Would the MODS kindly BAN, GR! He don't know nuthin'!





J/K, GR, bud - good to see you, friend! :)
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
So, tonight was a senior awards night at my school, where I recieved honors cord, high honors tassel, NHS cord, and 2 scholarships totaling of $1,000. My final GPA weighted should be at 4.0, but I'll find out when final report card comes out. My class rank was in the 30s out of 280 students. And the best thing? No one expected me to graduate from high school 13 years ago as mentioned in my blog. I don't really want to brag about my honors, but I'm so happy and proud of it that I got to share the news! I will tell you this... getting the cords and tassels make the struggles in high school so worth it, so keep up the hard work to those who are younger than me! You're almost there.


Anyway, what's going on with the weather?


Congrats Kyle! Going to frame your awards?
And thanks for the motivation booster, one more year of high school.

To answer your question, there is a confirmed tornado on the ground east of Tulsa, TA said something about multi-vortice.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
So, tonight was a senior awards night at my school, where I recieved honors cord, high honors tassel, NHS cord, and 2 scholarships totaling of $1,000. My final GPA weighted should be at 4.0, but I'll find out when final report card comes out. My class rank was in the 30s out of 280 students. And the best thing? No one expected me to graduate from high school 13 years ago as mentioned in my blog. I don't really want to brag about my honors, but I'm so happy and proud of it that I got to share the news! I will tell you this... getting the cords and tassels make the struggles in high school so worth it, so keep up the hard work to those who are younger than me! You're almost there.


Anyway, what's going on with the weather?


Congrats!
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I know this blog doesn't allow humor any more but I couldn't help it..




NOTE: Flood and house insurance not available.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.