Hurricane Barbara Hits Mexico; Severe Weather Outbreak Continues in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2013

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The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Barbara is still alive as a tropical depression at the edge of the Atlantic's Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain new life as an Atlantic tropical cyclone later today. Barbara made landfall near 4 pm EDT (1 pm PDT) May 29, 2013, on Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec coast, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. The storm killed two people, and brought heavy rains of 16.02" (407mm) to Arriaga in the state of Chiapas in an 18-hour period. Barbara remains a serious rainfall threat today. The storm intensified remarkably rapidly, becoming a hurricane just 21 hours after it became a tropical depression. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one other Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever made landfall in May--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. Barbara is just the 2nd hurricane ever to make landfall in the Bay of Tehuantepec (the other: Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997.) Barbara's formation date of May 28 was the 2nd earliest appearance of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd named storm of the year; the record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21, 2012 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The average date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd storm is June 25. Barbara's landfall location was the most easterly on record for an East Pacific hurricane. Records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949, but aren't really reliable until 1966.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Barbara taken at 4:30 pm EDT on May 29, 2013. At the time, Barbara was making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Barbara survived its overnight crossing of Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec with its circulation intact, but lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorm activity. This morning, the center of Barbara was located just inland from the southernmost waters of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Barbara was drifting northwest, towards open water, at 3 mph. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Barbara, the storm has the potential to be classified as an Atlantic tropical depression later today if its center emerges over water. However, latest satellite loops have shown a steady reduction in the storm's heavy thunderstorms this morning, and Barbara may lose its circulation before it has time take advantage of the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters. Since Barbara is a small storm, the moderate wind shear may be too great for it to withstand. None of the reliable computer models predict that Barbara will survive into Friday. If Barbara is able to re-intensify to a tropical storm, it would keep the name Barbara, becoming the first Atlantic storm ever to have an Eastern Pacific name. Formerly, Eastern Pacific storms crossing into the Atlantic would be given a new name, but a recent NHC policy change allows storms to keep their names when they cross from one ocean basin to another. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then its remnants regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. If you want to discuss this year's hurricane season via Twitter, AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat today (Thursday) at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat; the National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat.

Double ocean tropical cyclones: a rare breed
According to the Hurricane FAQ, since 1923 there have been four East Pacific tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the Atlantic Ocean, becoming tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean:

Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Alma (May 2008) became a remnant low in the Atlantic, where it merged with another tropical wave which generated Atlantic Tropical Storm Arthur. Arthur hit Belize as a tropical storm, killing nine and doing $78 million in damage.

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison in June 1989. Allison hit Texas as a tropical storm, and heavy rains from Allison--up to 30" in some regions of Texas and Louisiana--triggered floods that killed eleven people and did $1 billion in damage. (A later incarnation of Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 also hit Texas, and caused such extensive flooding that its name was retired.)

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and hit Freeport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane, killing two people.

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (October 1923) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #6) and made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Louisiana.

There have been eight Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the East Pacific Ocean, and were then tropical storms in that ocean.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over much of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest brings more tornadoes and flooding
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Wednesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 23 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas, and no injuries and only minor damage was reported. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Thursday) over much of Oklahoma, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 3. Five-day rainfall forecast for the period ending at 7am EDT Tuesday, June 4, calls for very heavy rains of 3 - 5" over much of Missouri. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

As discussed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, Some Phenomenal Rainfalls the Past Week in the U.S., the country has seen a lot of very heavy rainfall over the past week that has caused serious flooding. Of particular concern is Iowa, where Governor Terry Branstad issued a disaster proclamation on Tuesday for 13 Iowa counties, due to recent storms and flooding.The Iowa State Climatologist, Harry Hillaker, announced on May 29th that this has been the wettest spring (March-May) on record for the state since records began 141 years ago. A state average of 16.4” has been preliminarily reported. The previous wettest spring was 15.5” way back in 1892. He warned that “Iowa is at a tipping point for a major flood event”. Rains of 1 - 2" are expected over Eastern Iowa the remainder of the this week, which will keep most rivers above flood stage. Another round of rains of 1 - 2" are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, when the next storm system rolls through. That system also has the potential to bring a severe weather outbreak to the Midwest.

Jeff Masters

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You will Bluestorm.

And wx97 - I figured -- but right now there is no IT for IT to use anything...
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Quoting Andrebrooks:
Why hasn't the National Hurricane Center started their TWO with the remnants of Barbara.

Pssst... it's dissipated. no need for a TWO on it.

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I've been listening to the Tulsa County Scanner and besides a few businesses damaged, everything looks to be calm and not too much damage. No injuries as far as i've heard
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3860
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
913 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN LONOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 911 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MORGAN...OR 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAUMELLE.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
MAUMELLE... LITTLE ROCK AFB... PARNELL...
OLMSTEAD... MORGAN... MARCHE...
GRAVEL RIDGE... PALARM... OTTO...
NATURAL STEPS... MACON... CATO...
RIVER PLANTATION ESTATES... WARSAW...
TONEYVILLE... RUNYAN ACRES... RECTOR HILL...
PANTHER MTN...
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3860
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Quoting Dakster:


Not a fan myself either - but it is important. I had to take it over a summer session by itself. Then I was able to get an 'A' from my 'W' as I had to withdraw from it...

For your line of proposed work, you may just end up using it for daily life.
I just hope I figures it out quickly. *sigh*
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
DELAWARE OK-
908 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
DELAWARE COUNTY...

AT 907 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR KANSAS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...KANSAS...
LAKE EUCHA STATE PARK AND COLCORD.
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Multiple cars overturned.... but so far no serious injuries
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3860
Quoting beell:


A very large value of a ONE.
or
Tropical Weather Outlook


Ah, thanks.


Little Rock radar:
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890. beell
Quoting Astrometeor:
What is a TWO?


A very large value of a ONE.
or
Tropical Weather Outlook
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Andre congrats u have made number 62 on my list!
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Quoting Dakster:
Andrebrooks, What is the 'it'?

The tropical storm the models are showing a week or so from that that forms from a monsoon gyre in the GOM. The remnants of Barbara will get pushed into S Mexico and won't likely be used for development.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I know Calculus is very important... still doesn't mean I have to like it. I just hope I figures it out this fall or I'm screwed.


Not a fan myself either - but it is important. I had to take it over a summer session by itself. Then I was able to get an 'A' from my 'W' as I had to withdraw from it...

For your line of proposed work, you may just end up using it for daily life.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
905 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN MAYES COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN ROGERS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN WAGONER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 902 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 14 MILES WEST OF WAGONER...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH. THIS STORM PRODUCED A LARGE TORNADO IN EAST BROKEN ARROW
AND MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER TORNADO AT ANY TIME.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WAGONER.
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3860
Have a plan,evacuate when storm approaches.
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YAL'LL READY FOR HURRICANE SEASON.
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What is a TWO?
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GET READY NOWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!
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Re 796 Bluestorm:

*stands up and applauds*

Congratulations!!

Lindy
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321,HURRICANE SEASON!!!!
TWC HURRICANE SEASON 2008. THEME SONG.
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DELAWARE OK-
859 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
DELAWARE COUNTY...

AT 858 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION
WAS LOCATED NEAR TWIN OAKS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. A TORNADO IS
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...TWIN
OAKS...KANSAS...LAKE EUCHA STATE PARK AND COLCORD.
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Quoting Dakster:


You'll need that higher level math for weather prediction and weather software programming...

My math skills are low, although I found out 4 out of every 3 people have trouble with fractions, so its ok.
I know Calculus is very important... still doesn't mean I have to like it. I just hope I figures it out this fall or I'm screwed.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Don't worry their going to realize that they need to start the TWO.

Oh they'll start the TWO...

...on June 1st.

Quoting Doppler22:
Damage reported near Broken Arrow

I heard there was some damage, hopefully nothing too serious.
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Andrebrooks, What is the 'it'?
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 258
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
EASTERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 845 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
FLIPPIN ARKANSAS TO 55 MILES WEST OF MONTICELLO ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 252...WW 253...WW
255...WW 256...WW 257...

DISCUSSION...IN THE PRESENCE OF CONTINUING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
WARM ADVECTION BENEATH AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW...STRONG
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND
ADJACENT SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CAPE REMAINS SIZABLE AND CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
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Well models are showing that it is going to use the remnants.
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Damage reported near Broken Arrow
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3860
Don't worry their going to realize that they need to start the TWO.
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Quoting Andrebrooks:
Why hasn't the National Hurricane Center started their TWO with the remnants of Barbara.

Because its remnants are expected to be shunted westward into Mexico tomorrow.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Wake Up National hurricane Center.WAKE UPPPPPPPPPPPP!
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Why hasn't the National Hurricane Center started their TWO with the remnants of Barbara.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm trying to love Calculus, but it was such a struggle learning it. I think I had a bad teacher since half of class failed (they're all top 10% in class, not a lazy ones), but I also blamed on myself as well for not keeping up well. It's so frustrating that one class might prevent me from doing meteorology in college, but I've faced tough challenges before so why not try again at it?


You'll need that higher level math for weather prediction and weather software programming...

My math skills are low, although I found out 4 out of every 3 people have trouble with fractions, so its ok.
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.
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WAGONER OK-
857 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
WAGONER COUNTY...

AT 854 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 NORTHEAST OF ONETA
...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!


SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WAGONER.
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My Twitter timeline is full of negative reports in Broken Arrow area. Major damage reported.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
18z NAM now shows a strong T.S. south of LA/MS border... interesting...
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Quoting ScottLincoln:
That was quick. Quite a bit of debris remains in the circulation, but it does appear that the circulation has weakened. I'm not sure what spotter information was available, but at least from a radar standpoint, it was not particularly suggestive of a very large tornado, but certainly something >EF0, as it was causing damage and was in a suburban area.

There isn't anything really interfering with the storm, it could recycle.

It didn't look extremely impressive but I guess there was one for the "A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO" to be put into the warning....

Edit: Mike Bettes said that he saw a funnel roping out... I think he saw the end of the "extremely large tornado" that was in the warning but it might cycle
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3860
GAstorm if you are on I think you will appreciate this.
Link
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That was quick. Quite a bit of debris remains in the circulation, but it does appear that the circulation has weakened. I'm not sure what spotter information was available, but at least from a radar standpoint, it was not particularly suggestive of a very large tornado, but certainly something >EF0, as it was causing damage and was in a suburban area.

There isn't anything really interfering with the storm, it could recycle.
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860. txjac
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Thanks the lord tornado already went past Tulsa!


Hopefully all my work friends from Tulsa are safe.
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Thanks the lord tornado already went past Tulsa!
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
Quoting mikatnight:


DOOM
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hello everybody, looks like hurricane season is starting out pretty good.Stay safe and have fun predicting.
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Quoting flsky:
Hate to but in, but in case you guys didn't know, staying off topic like this will get you banned. Just a word to the wise....

Usually, but it's not active time in tropics right now. Beside, we're almost done.

EDIT: Think we're done.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
847 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

OKC143-145-310215-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-130531T0215Z/
TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
847 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
WAGONER AND EASTERN TULSA COUNTIES...

AT 846 PM CDT...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE CREEK TURNPIKE AND HIGHWAY 51...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS
LIFE THREATENING TORNADO IS CAPABLE OF EXTREME DAMAGE!

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...ONETA...
COWETA AND WAGONER.
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3860
0145utc scan... there now appears to be debris indicated by radar as the circulation moves out of Broken Arrow, OK, and crosses the Creek Turnpike.

It appears that the tornado may have just moved through the neighborhood in the E 91st and S 23rd St area.
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853. flsky
Hate to but in, but in case you guys didn't know, staying off topic like this will get you banned. Just a word to the wise....

Quoting tropicfreak:


Junior here, rising senior next year. Taking 5 AP classes including Calculus for next year, this should be fun!

Not.

Still debating on whether I should drop AP Government for AP Physics since I want to venture into the meteorology field (don't want to stress myself too much) and further my studies in meteorology at college, for me hopefully VA Tech, since it's the only school here in the state that offers a met degree!
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Quoting mikatnight:
Bart Comstock, 439 viewers. East of Tulsa...

Yikes, that Tulsa area storm still has some populated area to move through and it appears to be strengthening with a circulation <1000ft ARL.

CC/RHO is not yet strongly indicative of debris, but rotation is such that a weak tornado may already be on the ground, or could be in the process of developing.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just telling you AP Physics do not have much meteorology. It's a HARD class, especially magnetism/electricity, waves, and nuclear/modern physics.


Well...more to do with meteorology as opposed to government, I should say.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
But fun.

Ironically, entry level Calculus is the only college math course I ever aced... after that I quit while I was ahead... lol...

I was fortunate to get a good teacher and to be in a class of tech majors [applied science / engineering] but calculus IS accessible in the right context. If you are interested in pursuing a college degree in wx, learn to love it.
I'm trying to love Calculus, but it was such a struggle learning it. I think I had a bad teacher since half of class failed (they're all top 10% in class, not a lazy ones), but I also blamed on myself as well for not keeping up well. It's so frustrating that one class might prevent me from doing meteorology in college, but I've faced tough challenges before so why not try again at it?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075
Quoting tropicfreak:


Exactly. VA Tech takes a 3 or higher in most classes. And I certainly agree to an extent, but the more classes you can get out of, the more you can stay focused on your major and not having to worry about the extra classes that don't have much to do with my major.

My main concern is that if I drop Government for physics, colleges would see that as settling for something easier if you move down from AP to Honors (I'm taking AP US History this year and took AP World last year). Trying to consider that. But at the same token, if they know that I'm aspiring to become a meteorologist don't they take that into consideration the motivation and my passion towards it, even if I drop AP Government (little to do with meteorology) for AP Physics (much to do with meteorology).

I don't know if what I said made sense, so bear with me!
Just telling you AP Physics do not have much meteorology. It's a HARD class, especially magnetism/electricity, waves, and nuclear/modern physics.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8075

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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