Hurricane Barbara Hits Mexico; Severe Weather Outbreak Continues in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2013

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The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Barbara is still alive as a tropical depression at the edge of the Atlantic's Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain new life as an Atlantic tropical cyclone later today. Barbara made landfall near 4 pm EDT (1 pm PDT) May 29, 2013, on Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec coast, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. The storm killed two people, and brought heavy rains of 16.02" (407mm) to Arriaga in the state of Chiapas in an 18-hour period. Barbara remains a serious rainfall threat today. The storm intensified remarkably rapidly, becoming a hurricane just 21 hours after it became a tropical depression. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one other Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever made landfall in May--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. Barbara is just the 2nd hurricane ever to make landfall in the Bay of Tehuantepec (the other: Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997.) Barbara's formation date of May 28 was the 2nd earliest appearance of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd named storm of the year; the record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21, 2012 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The average date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd storm is June 25. Barbara's landfall location was the most easterly on record for an East Pacific hurricane. Records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949, but aren't really reliable until 1966.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Barbara taken at 4:30 pm EDT on May 29, 2013. At the time, Barbara was making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Barbara survived its overnight crossing of Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec with its circulation intact, but lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorm activity. This morning, the center of Barbara was located just inland from the southernmost waters of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Barbara was drifting northwest, towards open water, at 3 mph. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Barbara, the storm has the potential to be classified as an Atlantic tropical depression later today if its center emerges over water. However, latest satellite loops have shown a steady reduction in the storm's heavy thunderstorms this morning, and Barbara may lose its circulation before it has time take advantage of the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters. Since Barbara is a small storm, the moderate wind shear may be too great for it to withstand. None of the reliable computer models predict that Barbara will survive into Friday. If Barbara is able to re-intensify to a tropical storm, it would keep the name Barbara, becoming the first Atlantic storm ever to have an Eastern Pacific name. Formerly, Eastern Pacific storms crossing into the Atlantic would be given a new name, but a recent NHC policy change allows storms to keep their names when they cross from one ocean basin to another. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then its remnants regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. If you want to discuss this year's hurricane season via Twitter, AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat today (Thursday) at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat; the National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat.

Double ocean tropical cyclones: a rare breed
According to the Hurricane FAQ, since 1923 there have been four East Pacific tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the Atlantic Ocean, becoming tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean:

Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Alma (May 2008) became a remnant low in the Atlantic, where it merged with another tropical wave which generated Atlantic Tropical Storm Arthur. Arthur hit Belize as a tropical storm, killing nine and doing $78 million in damage.

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison in June 1989. Allison hit Texas as a tropical storm, and heavy rains from Allison--up to 30" in some regions of Texas and Louisiana--triggered floods that killed eleven people and did $1 billion in damage. (A later incarnation of Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 also hit Texas, and caused such extensive flooding that its name was retired.)

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and hit Freeport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane, killing two people.

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (October 1923) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #6) and made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Louisiana.

There have been eight Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the East Pacific Ocean, and were then tropical storms in that ocean.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over much of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest brings more tornadoes and flooding
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Wednesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 23 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas, and no injuries and only minor damage was reported. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Thursday) over much of Oklahoma, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 3. Five-day rainfall forecast for the period ending at 7am EDT Tuesday, June 4, calls for very heavy rains of 3 - 5" over much of Missouri. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

As discussed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, Some Phenomenal Rainfalls the Past Week in the U.S., the country has seen a lot of very heavy rainfall over the past week that has caused serious flooding. Of particular concern is Iowa, where Governor Terry Branstad issued a disaster proclamation on Tuesday for 13 Iowa counties, due to recent storms and flooding.The Iowa State Climatologist, Harry Hillaker, announced on May 29th that this has been the wettest spring (March-May) on record for the state since records began 141 years ago. A state average of 16.4” has been preliminarily reported. The previous wettest spring was 15.5” way back in 1892. He warned that “Iowa is at a tipping point for a major flood event”. Rains of 1 - 2" are expected over Eastern Iowa the remainder of the this week, which will keep most rivers above flood stage. Another round of rains of 1 - 2" are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, when the next storm system rolls through. That system also has the potential to bring a severe weather outbreak to the Midwest.

Jeff Masters

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949. Gaara
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
My blog is almost done. Should be posting it soon! :)


Will it be as good as grothar's BobLoblawBlobBlog?
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My blog is almost done. Should be posting it soon! :)
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
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946. Gaara
Looks like the inflow from the MCS that passed through little rock now is providing ample outflow on the front side of a few smaller supercells moving NNWward behind it. This is really fascinating stuff:

Wouldn't surprise me if that one cell in the center starts to spool up its rotation in the next few frames.

Also cool that the mesoscale rotation is potent enough to be seen on the standard base reflectivity.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1019 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1013 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2
MILES WEST OF PEA RIDGE TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF TONTITOWN TO 3
MILES NORTHEAST OF CINCINNATI...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
SPRINGDALE...GARFIELD...FARMINGTON...GATEWAY...WAR EAGLE...DRAKE
FIELD AIRPORT...FAYETTEVILLE...HOBBS STATE PARK...BEAVER...
CLIFTY...EUREKA SPRINGS...HINDSVILLE...ELKINS...FORUM...
GRANDVIEW...WESLEY...WITHROW SPRINGS STATE PARK...MARBLE...
HUNTSVILLE...URBANETTE...RULE...RUDD...GREEN FOREST...BERRYVILLE
AND OAK GROVE.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Excellent choice!


Another group that I liked back in the day, used that song as a basis for one of their works. I was recently enlightened of this. Good song that one.
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The convective mass that formed off the Yucatan peninsula has pushed westward towards the remains of Barbara. It will be interesting to see how they interact during the diurnal maximum for oceanic convection:

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There's not a lot to talk about in the tropics. Barbara is dead and seems unlikely to revive in the Gulf of Mexico.
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Blue Rondo a la Turk


Excellent choice!
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Quoting FLwolverine:
Maybe you could speak to a problem my niece had at UM Engin School (and she's not the only one I know of). She did well in her HS AP courses in math, physics, etc, so she placed out of several 100 and 200 level courses and in her freshman year ended up in classes with juniors. Very hard and terribly discouraging. Did you find that same problem? Sometimes I wonder if so many AP courses are a good idea, but on the other hand colleges want to see them in your transcript.

And on the third hand, my nephew decided to take "honors" math as a HS sophomore and ended up in a class of kids not interested in learning with a teacher who figured they were all sort of dumb (because smart kids were in AP). Seems like you are damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Much more complicated than when I was in high school.

BTW congratulations on being a met major at FSU and good luck.



College courses (depending on the college and major) can be much more difficult than AP. My sister got 5s on all the APs she took in high school and she would consider herself good at math. Until she got to college. Very first test, she completely failed. Granted it was a test to see how much you actually knew, but difficult regardless.
AP is good for laying a foundation and prepping yourself for the workload that can accompany college-level courses.

As for your nephew, same here at my school. Students who are willing to do the work go to AP, while those who could care less or didn't feel as if they could handle the math go to honors. The bad side is that kids who want to learn but are in honors often have a hard time because of their peers who don't want to learn or because of a inadequate teacher.

I am taking AP Calc next year, and like Bluestorm, am awaiting the results of my AP Physics test that I took about two weeks ago.
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lets talk tropics
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And, uh, since I like math we've established what part of the spectrum I'm on too.

Except that I'm not ;)
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GRANT AR-SALINE AR-
953 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN SALINE AND
NORTH CENTRAL GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 950 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF CANE CREEK...OR 10 MILES
NORTH OF SHERIDAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
CANE CREEK... SARDIS... ICO...
BELFAST... DETONTI...
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Meteorology classes are even significantly harder and more complex than even general physics, just warning you ahead of time, I'm a MET major at FSU :)

Of course, I find all physics to be interesting, and science for that matter, meteorology I just happen to love the most so that's what I do!
Maybe you could speak to a problem my niece had at UM Engin School (and she's not the only one I know of). She did well in her HS AP courses in math, physics, etc, so she placed out of several 100 and 200 level courses and in her freshman year ended up in classes with juniors. Very hard and terribly discouraging. Did you find that same problem? Sometimes I wonder if so many AP courses are a good idea, but on the other hand colleges want to see them in your transcript.

And on the third hand, my nephew decided to take "honors" math as a HS sophomore and ended up in a class of kids not interested in learning with a teacher who figured they were all sort of dumb (because smart kids were in AP). Seems like you are damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Much more complicated than when I was in high school.

BTW congratulations on being a met major at FSU and good luck.
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so far in the tropical this year so far.. I see lots of rain and wet last year is was dry..in late may and june
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Think my avatar will be back tomorrow?
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Veer-Back-Veer
(baseline)


Blue Rondo a la Turk
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Hell no. I appreciate it for what it is and its importance to humanity, but that's about the extent of it, lol.
Now we've established what part of the spectrum you are on ;)
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Do you enjoy math? I do!


Hell no. I appreciate it for what it is and its importance to humanity, but that's about the extent of it, lol.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I never understood why so many people actually seem to enjoy it. Unless they're strongly masochistic or something...


I hated Algebra, but interestingly enough I excelled and enjoyed Trig and Geometry. My mind works 3-dimensional.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23908
Quoting KoritheMan:


I never understood why so many people actually seem to enjoy it. Unless they're strongly masochistic or something...


Do you enjoy math? I do!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
All this talk about math and I had a hard time with Geometry in H.S.lol.I stick at math.


I was never good at math either, just never gave up...
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Could be an MCV, it's certainly something...




Must've been an interesting ride:

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Quoting washingtonian115:
All this talk about math and I had a hard time with Geometry in H.S.lol.I stick at math.


I never understood why so many people actually seem to enjoy it. Unless they're strongly masochistic or something...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
All this talk about math and I had a hard time with Geometry in H.S.lol.I stick at math.


What did the acorn say when he grew up?
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All this talk about math and I had a hard time with Geometry in H.S.lol.I stick at math.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0894
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ECNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 310247Z - 310345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM CNTRL THROUGH ECNTRL KS BETWEEN
03-04Z. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...BUT STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...BUT ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL DEPEND
ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...RAPID REFRESH AND NAM DATA INDICATE MOISTURE RECOVERING
NWD THROUGH ERN KS ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ ABOVE THE SFC AND BENEATH
ERN FRINGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE. BOTH THE HRRR AND
NAM HAVE SHOWN A CONSISTENT CONVECTIVE SIGNAL ACROSS ERN KS. TRENDS
IN WV IMAGERY IMPLY A ZONE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ASCENT SPREADING EWD
THROUGH WRN/CNTRL KS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME COLLOCATED WITH
AXIS OF MORE GRADUAL ISENTROPIC LOW LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL/KERR.. 05/31/2013
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Quoting acl8610:


Seriously, dont let the math and physics stuff freak you out. Any exposure to higher math such as calc and physics you can have before college is a huge help. I took AP calc and physics in H.S. I did so so in each, and of course learning about magnetic fields, light waves, and so on has nothing to do with weather but it was exposure and practice for the required classes i had to take in college. I would highly recommend taking them in H.S. for this reason. Dont shoot for A's necessarily but look for them as practice for the next four or five years. Hint: take them your last semester in H.S. since colleges wont have time look at that.


Would also like to add that everything will all make sense when meteorology is applied to the math you will have spent several years learning. Trust me on that....
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Quoting Tazmanian:




he seen nothing 1st



i saw it 1st


Quoting ncstorm:
Where is Grothar, our blobologist?



Grothar made a note earlier on this wave while it was still over Central Africa.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Where is Grothar, our blobologist?



Grothar told me in email that he would be traveling and would not be on frequently for the next few weeks.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Where is Grothar, our blobologist?





he seen nothing 1st



i saw it 1st
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


When the norm of the partition becomes infinitely small...


Seriously, dont let the math and physics stuff freak you out. Any exposure to higher math such as calc and physics you can have before college is a huge help. I took AP calc and physics in H.S. I did so so in each, and of course learning about magnetic fields, light waves, and so on has nothing to do with weather but it was exposure and practice for the required classes i had to take in college. I would highly recommend taking them in H.S. for this reason. Dont shoot for A's necessarily but look for them as practice for the next four or five years. Hint: take them your last semester in H.S. since colleges wont have time look at that.
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Rain is arriving to St. Louis as Cardinals are playing Royals in a tight game. Wacha (Cardinals' best minor league pitcher) made his debut tonight and did well.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7988
Where is Grothar, our blobologist?

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think my GR2Analyst may have screwed up for a minute, lol.




Veer-Back-Veer
(baseline)
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I think my GR2Analyst may have screwed up for a minute, lol.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911


Mesoscale convective vortex??
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It wouldn't make sense for the NHC to issue a special TWO before the season just to tag it as a near 0% system. If this thing is still meandering around the BOC on Saturday though, as some models indicate, that's a whole different story.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I've faced challenges all of my life so I'm not surprised. I love Physics so I believe I'll be fine. It's the math part of Physics and Calculus that's stressing me out for college. But you never know until you try.


When the norm of the partition becomes infinitely small...
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Even shows up somewhat on the IR channels in Dvorak mode

Link

Quoting Gaara:
The embedded rotation in the little rock storm is amazing.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Meteorology classes are even significantly harder and more complex than even general physics, just warning you ahead of time, I'm a MET major at FSU :)

Of course, I find all physics to be interesting, and science for that matter, meteorology I just happen to love the most so that's what I do!
I've faced challenges all of my life so I'm not surprised. I love Physics so I believe I'll be fine. It's the math part of Physics and Calculus that's stressing me out for college. But you never know until you try.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7988
Quoting Doppler22:
I'm hitting the hay now. Hopefully if there are any more tornadoes occur tonight people will get the warning and head underground. Looks to be another interesting day for Tulsa area tomorrow. Night everyone

Don't hit the hay to hard, you might leave a bruise. LOL
Night mate
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Meteorology classes are even significantly harder and more complex than even general physics, just warning you ahead of time, I'm a MET major at FSU :)

Of course, I find all physics to be interesting, and science for that matter, meteorology I just happen to love the most so that's what I do!


I think it is so great that you are going into a field you love.

I have and I've never regretted it.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Meteorology classes are much harder than even general physics, just warning you ahead of time, I'm a MET major at FSU :)


DAE quasi-geostrophic height tendency equation?
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904. Gaara
The embedded rotation in the little rock storm is amazing.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Meteorology classes are much harder than even general physics, just warning you ahead of time, I'm a MET major at FSU :)


You know what they say, if it was easy everyone would do it.
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I'm hitting the hay now. Hopefully if there are any more tornadoes occur tonight people will get the warning and head underground. Looks to be another interesting day for Tulsa area tomorrow. Night everyone
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3727
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just telling you AP Physics do not have much meteorology. It's a HARD class, especially magnetism/electricity, waves, and nuclear/modern physics.


Meteorology classes are even significantly harder and more complex than even general physics, just warning you ahead of time, I'm a MET major at FSU :)

Of course, I find all physics to be interesting, and science for that matter, meteorology I just happen to love the most so that's what I do!
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Quoting Astrometeor:
What is a TWO?


Tendentious Wunderground Obfuscator.
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You will Bluestorm.

And wx97 - I figured -- but right now there is no IT for IT to use anything...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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