Hurricane Barbara Hits Mexico; Severe Weather Outbreak Continues in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2013

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The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Barbara is still alive as a tropical depression at the edge of the Atlantic's Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain new life as an Atlantic tropical cyclone later today. Barbara made landfall near 4 pm EDT (1 pm PDT) May 29, 2013, on Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec coast, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. The storm killed two people, and brought heavy rains of 16.02" (407mm) to Arriaga in the state of Chiapas in an 18-hour period. Barbara remains a serious rainfall threat today. The storm intensified remarkably rapidly, becoming a hurricane just 21 hours after it became a tropical depression. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one other Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever made landfall in May--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. Barbara is just the 2nd hurricane ever to make landfall in the Bay of Tehuantepec (the other: Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997.) Barbara's formation date of May 28 was the 2nd earliest appearance of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd named storm of the year; the record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21, 2012 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The average date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd storm is June 25. Barbara's landfall location was the most easterly on record for an East Pacific hurricane. Records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949, but aren't really reliable until 1966.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Barbara taken at 4:30 pm EDT on May 29, 2013. At the time, Barbara was making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Barbara survived its overnight crossing of Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec with its circulation intact, but lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorm activity. This morning, the center of Barbara was located just inland from the southernmost waters of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Barbara was drifting northwest, towards open water, at 3 mph. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Barbara, the storm has the potential to be classified as an Atlantic tropical depression later today if its center emerges over water. However, latest satellite loops have shown a steady reduction in the storm's heavy thunderstorms this morning, and Barbara may lose its circulation before it has time take advantage of the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters. Since Barbara is a small storm, the moderate wind shear may be too great for it to withstand. None of the reliable computer models predict that Barbara will survive into Friday. If Barbara is able to re-intensify to a tropical storm, it would keep the name Barbara, becoming the first Atlantic storm ever to have an Eastern Pacific name. Formerly, Eastern Pacific storms crossing into the Atlantic would be given a new name, but a recent NHC policy change allows storms to keep their names when they cross from one ocean basin to another. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then its remnants regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. If you want to discuss this year's hurricane season via Twitter, AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat today (Thursday) at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat; the National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat.

Double ocean tropical cyclones: a rare breed
According to the Hurricane FAQ, since 1923 there have been four East Pacific tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the Atlantic Ocean, becoming tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean:

Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Alma (May 2008) became a remnant low in the Atlantic, where it merged with another tropical wave which generated Atlantic Tropical Storm Arthur. Arthur hit Belize as a tropical storm, killing nine and doing $78 million in damage.

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison in June 1989. Allison hit Texas as a tropical storm, and heavy rains from Allison--up to 30" in some regions of Texas and Louisiana--triggered floods that killed eleven people and did $1 billion in damage. (A later incarnation of Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 also hit Texas, and caused such extensive flooding that its name was retired.)

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and hit Freeport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane, killing two people.

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (October 1923) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #6) and made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Louisiana.

There have been eight Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the East Pacific Ocean, and were then tropical storms in that ocean.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over much of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest brings more tornadoes and flooding
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Wednesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 23 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas, and no injuries and only minor damage was reported. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Thursday) over much of Oklahoma, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 3. Five-day rainfall forecast for the period ending at 7am EDT Tuesday, June 4, calls for very heavy rains of 3 - 5" over much of Missouri. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

As discussed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, Some Phenomenal Rainfalls the Past Week in the U.S., the country has seen a lot of very heavy rainfall over the past week that has caused serious flooding. Of particular concern is Iowa, where Governor Terry Branstad issued a disaster proclamation on Tuesday for 13 Iowa counties, due to recent storms and flooding.The Iowa State Climatologist, Harry Hillaker, announced on May 29th that this has been the wettest spring (March-May) on record for the state since records began 141 years ago. A state average of 16.4” has been preliminarily reported. The previous wettest spring was 15.5” way back in 1892. He warned that “Iowa is at a tipping point for a major flood event”. Rains of 1 - 2" are expected over Eastern Iowa the remainder of the this week, which will keep most rivers above flood stage. Another round of rains of 1 - 2" are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, when the next storm system rolls through. That system also has the potential to bring a severe weather outbreak to the Midwest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WDEmobmet:


Bertha


Thank you but which Bertha? There have been six Bertha's over the years

Also, Good Morning IKE. Good to see you!
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Good morning IKE!
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3294
Good Morning All,

Local met says wind shear in BOC to high for Barbara to regenerate. Is the shear expected to relax so there would be a possibility?
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bertha eventually made landfall as a strong cat 1 in s.brevard county florida
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1095. pottery

I have been reading some studies on the influence of SAL on tropical storm formation. Interesting stuff.
This one is the most comprehensive, in my view.
Thanks to PATRAP for the links.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2009 MWR3135.1
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Quoting FtMyersgal:


What is the earliest a CV wave turned into a TS or hurricane? Anybody know the answer?


Bertha
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I see the models are agreeing on a consensus and not moving the time back and being sloppy on where the storm will form unlike the last few weeks where some would show the caribbean others would show the BOC or the east side of Florida.Look out for consistency as well.Surprisingly the Euro is being consistent so far on what will happen let's see if that keeps up.Don't care for tornado's so I would be happy on something tropical to track for a change that's not headed for my house(Sandy)sorry Gulf coast.
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1092. ncstorm


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Quoting ncstorm:
we got a low with that blob off Africa..



What is the earliest a CV wave turned into a TS or hurricane? Anybody know the answer?
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seems as if barbara should regenerate somewhat after staying stationary for the next 3-5 days.
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Quoting WDEmobmet:


Are you talking about the ole WU blogger Storm
....yep ole storm cat
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I gotta get on the road. It's a late morning for me, but I don't actually want to be LATE.... lol

I'll check in later if possible.

We're still getting some showers here, but ... I think I see the sun outside!!!!

Happy Friday, morning and evening, to all.


Safe travels Baha
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I gotta get on the road. It's a late morning for me, but I don't actually want to be LATE.... lol

I'll check in later if possible.

We're still getting some showers here, but ... I think I see the sun outside!!!!

Happy Friday, morning and evening, to all.
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Quoting Pensa2woodtx:
Storm cat's blog says a cat1 heading to New Orleans


Are you talking about the ole WU blogger Storm
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah but most if not all the rain will be at the center and east. a Track toward Panama City, FL would mean very hot and dry weather for you.


Very true, which is why I need a LA MS landfall :)

Like this

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Quoting Torito:


He... left.

Norton tricked him into thinking this site was unsafe, i believe. it was glitched and said that this site had a virus like 3 weeks ago.

It was one of the ads leading people to a virus(which is fixed now) that caused that to happen.
Quoting WDEmobmet:


He quit... something about this site giving him viruses
Well, that's ... sad. I have the no-ads subscription, so I rarely get bugged by them. I hope he gets the message that it's safe... he was a worthy fellow-traveler...
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Storm cat's blog says a cat1 heading to New Orleans
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Big Bend
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Quoting WDEmobmet:


Wouldnt mind either of the GFS, EURO, or CMC coming true. Would like to have some rain here


Yeah but most if not all the rain will be at the center and east. a Track toward Panama City, FL would mean very hot and dry weather for you.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3294
1080. ncstorm
we got a low with that blob off Africa..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like the models have come into better agreement regarding the time of cyclogenesis and track, though the GFS develops it by 78 hours in the BoC.


Wouldnt mind either of the GFS, EURO, or CMC coming true. Would like to have some rain here
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like the models have come into better agreement regarding the time of cyclogenesis and track, though the GFS develops it by 78 hours in the BoC.


A track into the FL Panhandle is worst case scenario track for the FL Penisula as several days of flooding rains and a very high tornado potential will exist. Remember TS Debby? This would be almost an identical track however a track toward the FL Big Bend is a big possibility as well.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3294
Moderate risk... Again!




Tornado and Hail threat





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Looks like the models have come into better agreement regarding the time of cyclogenesis and track, though the GFS develops it by 78 hours in the BoC.
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1075. ncstorm
Quoting Torito:
Someone keep an eye on the spot west of africa, it keeps getting better for potential development.



Grothar is surely missing..We need this designated..:)

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
1074. Torito
ill be back later...
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Ex Barbara still firing off some convection around her LLC
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1072. Torito
Someone keep an eye on the spot west of africa, it keeps getting better for potential development.

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Good morning everyone!

Good evening Aussie!
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1070. ncstorm
Good Morning

00z Euro..
216 hours




00z CMC
132 hours






Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
1069. Torito
TR-BARBARA

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Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, what's up with Largo? I haven't seen him in here in the a.m. for a few days....


He quit... something about this site giving him viruses
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1067. Torito
Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, what's up with Largo? I haven't seen him in here in the a.m. for a few days....


He... left.

Norton tricked him into thinking this site was unsafe, i believe. it was glitched and said that this site had a virus like 3 weeks ago.

It was one of the ads leading people to a virus(which is fixed now) that caused that to happen.
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BTW, what's up with Largo? I haven't seen him in here in the a.m. for a few days....
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Morning all.

The GFS longrange had something showing for next week for quite a while. The system was supposed to originate in the SW CAR, but given the low pressure left by Barbara's entry into the basin, I'd expect something more likely in BoC, especially if shear values lower as has been forecast.
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1064. IKE
Been doing good. Good morning to all.....

Joe Bastardi on twitter.....ECMWF taking seasons first tropical threat into central gulf coast nxt weekend. In line with MJO ideas and
worries
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Hi Ike. Good to see you.
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Quoting IKE:
And @ 177 hours.....
Morning IKE, Long time how have you been? lots of rain coming for Florida
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1061. IKE
6Z GFS @ 228 hours...similar to the 00Z ECMWF....
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Good morning. Here's the SPC's tornado outlook for today:

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1058. IKE
And @ 177 hours.....
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1057. IKE
6Z GFS @ 126 hours....
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1056. IKE

6Z GFS @ 81 hours.....
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Dangerous

INITIAL DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE MODES DURING
AFTERNOON SHOULD OFFER HAIL AOA 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER IN SOME
LOCALES...AMIDST EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S F DEW POINTS AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT DEEPLY
BUOYANT PROFILE WITH MLCAPE 4000-5500 J/KG...AMIDST 45-55 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE
. DISCRETE PROPAGATION IS POSSIBLE WITH
TIME...SWWD ALONG BOUNDARY TO SFC LOW...EXTENDING INTO LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DURING 31/23Z-01/03Z
TIME FRAME. SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT SHOULD YIELD BACKED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS OK WARM SECTOR...COMBINING WITH INCREASING
1-2 KM AGL FLOW AROUND 00Z-03Z TO INCREASE BOTH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
HODOGRAPH SIZE. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES 300-500 J/KG
(seems like a typo, they mean m^2/ s^2) ARE POSSIBLE
WHILE INFLOW PARCELS STILL ARE SFC-BASED.



watch out okc and norman
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1054. IKE
Crown Weather on tropical development next week in the GOM......http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7367
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1053. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
DEPRESSION BOB02-2013
11:30 AM IST May 31 2013
===============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, the depression over Jharkhand, India and neighborhood moved northwards with about the speed of 5 knots during the past 12 hours and now lays near 24.5N 87.5E, about 80 km south of Bhagalpur, India.

The system would move northwards and weaken gradually into a low pressure area during next 12 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45578
1052. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
DEPRESSION BOB02-2013
8:30 AM IST May 31 2013
===============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, the depression over Gangetic, West Bengal and neighborhood moved north northwestward with about the speed of 5 knots during the past 12 hours and now lays over Jharkhand, India and neighborhood near 24.0N 87.0E, or about 80 km north of Bankura, West Bengal.

The system is likely to move north northwestward and weaken into a low pressure area during the next 12 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45578
1051. JLPR2
Quoting all4hurricanes:

What do the models have the wave doing once it reaches the Western Caribbean?


If we go with the GFS it doesn't reach it, moves NE of the Lesser Antilles and I cant discern it once it moves north of Puerto Rico.
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1050. TXCWC
OZ Euro holds with what it was saying with the 12Z run earlier yesterday - both GFS and Euro currently saying minimal tropical storm somewhere along Eastern Gulf coast

12Z run


latest 0Z run


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1049. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

#1
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.