Hurricane Barbara Hits Mexico; Severe Weather Outbreak Continues in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2013

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The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Barbara is still alive as a tropical depression at the edge of the Atlantic's Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain new life as an Atlantic tropical cyclone later today. Barbara made landfall near 4 pm EDT (1 pm PDT) May 29, 2013, on Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec coast, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. The storm killed two people, and brought heavy rains of 16.02" (407mm) to Arriaga in the state of Chiapas in an 18-hour period. Barbara remains a serious rainfall threat today. The storm intensified remarkably rapidly, becoming a hurricane just 21 hours after it became a tropical depression. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one other Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever made landfall in May--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. Barbara is just the 2nd hurricane ever to make landfall in the Bay of Tehuantepec (the other: Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997.) Barbara's formation date of May 28 was the 2nd earliest appearance of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd named storm of the year; the record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21, 2012 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The average date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's 2nd storm is June 25. Barbara's landfall location was the most easterly on record for an East Pacific hurricane. Records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949, but aren't really reliable until 1966.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Barbara taken at 4:30 pm EDT on May 29, 2013. At the time, Barbara was making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Barbara survived its overnight crossing of Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec with its circulation intact, but lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorm activity. This morning, the center of Barbara was located just inland from the southernmost waters of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Barbara was drifting northwest, towards open water, at 3 mph. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Barbara, the storm has the potential to be classified as an Atlantic tropical depression later today if its center emerges over water. However, latest satellite loops have shown a steady reduction in the storm's heavy thunderstorms this morning, and Barbara may lose its circulation before it has time take advantage of the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters. Since Barbara is a small storm, the moderate wind shear may be too great for it to withstand. None of the reliable computer models predict that Barbara will survive into Friday. If Barbara is able to re-intensify to a tropical storm, it would keep the name Barbara, becoming the first Atlantic storm ever to have an Eastern Pacific name. Formerly, Eastern Pacific storms crossing into the Atlantic would be given a new name, but a recent NHC policy change allows storms to keep their names when they cross from one ocean basin to another. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then its remnants regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. If you want to discuss this year's hurricane season via Twitter, AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat today (Thursday) at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat; the National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat.

Double ocean tropical cyclones: a rare breed
According to the Hurricane FAQ, since 1923 there have been four East Pacific tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the Atlantic Ocean, becoming tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean:

Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Alma (May 2008) became a remnant low in the Atlantic, where it merged with another tropical wave which generated Atlantic Tropical Storm Arthur. Arthur hit Belize as a tropical storm, killing nine and doing $78 million in damage.

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison in June 1989. Allison hit Texas as a tropical storm, and heavy rains from Allison--up to 30" in some regions of Texas and Louisiana--triggered floods that killed eleven people and did $1 billion in damage. (A later incarnation of Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 also hit Texas, and caused such extensive flooding that its name was retired.)

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and hit Freeport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane, killing two people.

An unnamed Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (October 1923) became Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #6) and made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Louisiana.

There have been eight Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes that have maintained their circulations while crossing into the East Pacific Ocean, and were then tropical storms in that ocean.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 30, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over much of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest brings more tornadoes and flooding
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Wednesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging 23 preliminary tornado reports. Twisters touched down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The tornadoes missed heavily populated areas, and no injuries and only minor damage was reported. The latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Thursday) over much of Oklahoma, with the potential for several strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.


Figure 3. Five-day rainfall forecast for the period ending at 7am EDT Tuesday, June 4, calls for very heavy rains of 3 - 5" over much of Missouri. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

As discussed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post, Some Phenomenal Rainfalls the Past Week in the U.S., the country has seen a lot of very heavy rainfall over the past week that has caused serious flooding. Of particular concern is Iowa, where Governor Terry Branstad issued a disaster proclamation on Tuesday for 13 Iowa counties, due to recent storms and flooding.The Iowa State Climatologist, Harry Hillaker, announced on May 29th that this has been the wettest spring (March-May) on record for the state since records began 141 years ago. A state average of 16.4” has been preliminarily reported. The previous wettest spring was 15.5” way back in 1892. He warned that “Iowa is at a tipping point for a major flood event”. Rains of 1 - 2" are expected over Eastern Iowa the remainder of the this week, which will keep most rivers above flood stage. Another round of rains of 1 - 2" are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, when the next storm system rolls through. That system also has the potential to bring a severe weather outbreak to the Midwest.

Jeff Masters

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It's one of those weekends in Orlando first word starts with G-- and the second word starts with D---. I was wondering what was going on. LOL
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

sure is a wet morning so far

Good Morning WKC and everyone else, sure is good to be getting some rain and a cool down. Do you know when the Cayman Radar will be online?
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1147. WxLogic
Good Morning... almost there.
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1146. Torito
90L already?

It is not visible on NOAA?...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
As to the future of 90L, have to keep an eye on the hi-res visible loops over the course of the day (and over the next several hours as the sun comes up those parts for a clearer view) to see how the system reacts to the sheer just to the North. Moderate sheer of 20-30 knots ahead of it over the next 24 hours:

Link
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Quoting AussieStorm:





Right with Climotology.
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The GFS is sending a wave across the Atlantic.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We have invest 90L!!!!!!!!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201305311228
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013053112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902013
AL, 90, 2013053112, , BEST, 0, 195N, 953W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,




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1140. icmoore
.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I think it a bit too early for them to cal it should have given it another day or so


Maybe they do it now to get the bam models running to see how they do.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14050
This system is going to pay me a visit tomorrow. Though there is some risk for very large hail and a few tornadoes, the most dominant risk appears to be damaging winds.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We have invest 90L!!!!!!!!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201305311228
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013053112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902013
AL, 90, 2013053112, , BEST, 0, 195N, 953W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

I think it a bit too early for them to cal it should have given it another day or so
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11159
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
You beat me to it. Game on folks. Debby part 2. I suspect Debby is a sore subject for some on here. LOL!


I think GeorgiaStormz is still stuck on last years Euro solution for Debby as the Euro had Debby going to Houston.
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Quoting superpete:
Large blob creating very heavy rain here in Cayman this hour, continued all last night too. Going to be a wet one today for us

sure is a wet morning so far
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11159
Very impressive for late May!

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Sun is rising on 90L.

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1126. TropicalAnalystwx13 8:31 AM EDT on May 31, 2013

TA13 is absolutely correct about a potentially explosive tornado threat today. Look at the current position of the Conus jet stream today below:


Link


Right over the Mid-West and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle.
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You beat me to it. Game on folks. Debby part 2. I suspect Debby is a sore subject for some on here. LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We have invest 90L!!!!!!!!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201305311228
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013053112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902013
AL, 90, 2013053112, , BEST, 0, 195N, 953W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14050
GGEM
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Quoting IKE:



Hi Ike! Nice to see another familiar name...

"At last the sun is shining, the clouds of blue roll by,
With flames from the dragon of darkness -
The sunlight blinds his eyes."


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6-10 Day GFS Ensembles. Looks like a fire hose aimed at the FL Penisula. I suspect we may have some 1 to 2 foot totals from this system.

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Today is going to be a very serious day. If you live in central Oklahoma you need to heed the warning without delay. The veer-back-veer wind profile isn't expected to pan out today, instability is explosive, dewpoints are very high, low-level shear is much higher than yesterday, SRH is in the hundreds, lapse rates are very favorable, and there are several boundary intersections across central Oklahoma for the storms to fire off.

Honestly, this is probably the most violate setup we've seen all year. The National Weather Service in Norman is forecasting the development of tornadoes that may be violent.

Again, please, please heed the warning across the Moderate risk area.
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Strong wave emerging West Africa.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14050
And now we wait for: 1. Barbara's remnants to survive and remain over water 2. For UL Westerly shear to relax over the Gulf.
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Look at the last page of comments.


Oh yep I see ye olde IKE. hehe
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Quoting IKE:



Welcome Back Bud..........Great to see you on.
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1121. IKE

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NWS Wilmington NC ‏@NWSWilmingtonNC 4m
911 Emergency call systems are currently experiencing problems in Horry County and Williamsburg County, South Carolina

NWS Wilmington NC ‏@NWSWilmingtonNC 3m
If you have an emergency in Horry Co., call 915-5100 or 915-6805. If you have an emergency in Williamsburg Co., call 843-354-9330

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
GFS CMC and ECMWF seem to be trending to between houston and tampa....around new orleans or mobile.

I personally want this to come to GA and stay, bringing significant rains that would help up get through a large part of the summer.


No model has shown this disturbance going to Houston. All the models are between Nola and Tampa with a cluster of them around Panama City.
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Large blob creating very heavy rain here in Cayman this hour, continued all last night too. Going to be a wet one today for us
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still need rain to fall further west than it is

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Morning all evening Aussie. I for one am not too excited about the start of the season having lived in S FLA for the last 54 years.
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GFS CMC and ECMWF seem to be trending to between houston and tampa....around new orleans or mobile.

I personally want this to come to GA and stay, bringing significant rains that would help up get through a large part of the summer.
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Quoting WDEmobmet:


HHHHHeeeeyyyyy!!!. But what do i win?


Genius for a day :)
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IKE you should say your name stands for Integrated Kinetic Energy.....
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. 15 Hours and 47 minutes to the start of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Don't get overly excited; an average of 1.7 storms in the Atlantic Basin over the next 60 days no matter what the models indicate as they flip flop over the next two months............. :)


Half of the first named storms occur after July 10, so there's a 50/50 chance we'll wait more than 40 days for the first one.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2909
Good morning everybody! Tomorrow's the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2013! :D

Anyways, there's once again a moderate risk for severe weather for OKC. They just can't catch a break...
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Quoting FtMyersgal:


WDE you win. Link from NHC

Link


HHHHHeeeeyyyyy!!!. But what do i win?
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Quoting WDEmobmet:


1996?


WDE you win. Link from NHC

Link
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Quoting AussieStorm:


I don't see ya ole IKE


Look at the last page of comments.
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Good Morning. 13 Hours and 48 minutes to the start of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Don't get overly excited; an average of 1.7 storms in the Atlantic Basin over the next 60 days no matter what the models indicate as they flip flop over the next two months............. :)
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Wet forecast for Orlando!
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
IKE is back from the dead. Good to see you buddy!


I don't see ye ole IKE
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Quoting Pensa2woodtx:
Storm cat's blog says a cat1 heading to New Orleans

I'm not sure which blog of his you read but his latest blog says 3 models that go out far enough in time…the GFS, ECMWF, and the CMC GGEM, indicated a system from a weak TD to a Low End TS. The GFS and GGEM both show a Florida solution at the moment, while the ECMWF indicates a solution toward the NOLA area. I will be monitoring this much closer as we get nearer that time period of between June 05-09.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5-7 days.
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Quoting FtMyersgal:


Thank you but which Bertha? There have been six Bertha's over the years

Also, Good Morning IKE. Good to see you!


1996?
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Quoting FtMyersgal:


What is the earliest a CV wave turned into a TS or hurricane? Anybody know the answer?


End of June 1995. 6/28/95 I believe.
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IKE is back from the dead. Good to see you buddy!
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Quoting flhurricanesurvivor:
Good Morning All,

Local met says wind shear in BOC to high for Barbara to regenerate. Is the shear expected to relax so there would be a possibility?
It is forecast to eventually slack off I think by late Sunday or Monday to allow some sort of storm to form.
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Quoting WDEmobmet:


Bertha


Thank you but which Bertha? There have been six Bertha's over the years

Also, Good Morning IKE. Good to see you!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.